US Opening Bell: Trade tensions, earnings reports, and Dow Jones analysis

Stocks

Summary:

U.S. stock futures fell amid renewed trade tensions and mixed earnings. Dow Jones shows bearish signals, while investors await economic data and Fed commentary for further market direction.

U.S. stock futures dropped on Thursday as a short-lived rally faded. Investors weighed the unpredictable trade moves by the Trump administration and mixed corporate earnings reports.

Stocks are having a hard time building on Wednesday's rally, which was driven by hints that President Trump may be softening his tough stance on trade and the Federal Reserve. Investors are struggling to keep up with the administration's announcements and Trump's changing positions on tariffs.

While a deal with China remains a possibility, markets still see this as some way off for now with neither side willing to look weak ahead of a potential negotiation. Chinese authorities this morning said that If the US really wants to resolve the issue, it should lift all unilateral tariff measures against China.

Further developments on this front in the US session could either hurt or help sentiment and will be worth monitoring.

On the earnings front, IBM shares dropped 8% in U.S. premarket trading after disappointing results missed high expectations. In Europe, traders navigated a wave of earnings, with Unilever rising on better-than-expected sales, while BNP Paribas fell due to a profit decline.

Procter & Gamble lowered its yearly sales and profit forecasts on Thursday after reporting a larger-than-expected drop in third-quarter sales. This happened as consumers cut back on spending due to economic uncertainty and the ongoing trade war.

Investors are keeping an eye on trade updates and a packed schedule of results from major companies like Procter & Gamble, Merck, and Alphabet for more market direction.

Something which I found interesting is Deutsche Bank strategists cutting their year-end S&P 500 target by 12%, blaming the impact of tariffs on U.S. companies. The new target of 6,150 points offers a 14% potential increase from Wednesday’s close but only allows the index to recover losses since its peak in February.

Economic data releases

For now focus will shift to earnings but may still be overshadowed by tariff developments.

March data on durable goods, home sales, and weekly jobless claims will be closely watched for insights into the economy. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is also set to speak later today.

Chart of the day - Dow Jones Index (DJIA)

From a technical standpoint, the Dow Jones printed a significant shooting star rejection candle at a key resistance area around the 40000 mark.

The drop continued today to bridge the price gap created on Tuesday with the index’s next move up in the air.

Price action remains mixed while yesterday's pullback means that the RSI also remains bearish and below the neutral 50 mark.

Immediate support rests at 39232 before the 38472 and 38100 handles come into focus.

Immediate resistance rests at 39588 before the key 40000 handle and 40537 handles come into focus.

Dow Jones Daily Chart, April 24, 2025

Source: marketpulse

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Warren Takunda

Stocks

Economic

Wall Street's main indexes were mixed on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rising, as investors assessed a slew of mixed corporate results and monitored developments in U.S.-China trade war.

The White House on Wednesday indicated that it was open to reducing sweeping tariffs on China, and President Donald Trump stepped back from his attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, sending stock indexes higher.

But the optimism faded when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a move to reduce levies would not come unilaterally, while China said in response that the U.S. should lift all unilateral tariff measures against China if it "truly" wanted to solve the trade issue.

A deluge of changing headlines and the lack of clarity in the market are making it difficult for investors to assess the impact of Trump's changing stance on trade policy, creating a volatile environment.

"The tariffs are still having a powerful effect on sentiment and the Trump administration is vacillating between backing away from the full implementation and going forward," said Matt Gertken, chief strategist at BCA Research.

"The administration backtracking tells markets that the strategy is to implement tariffs, but not to cause a recession, as long as that's the case, then the trade war will be a sort of a two steps forward, one step back process."

At 09:37 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 160.28 points, or 0.40%, to 39,446.29, the S&P 500 gained 5.59 points, or 0.10%, to 5,381.45 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 68.60 points, or 0.41%, to 16,776.65.

Heavy-weight megacap and growth stocks buoyed the tech-heavy Nasdaq and countered losses on the benchmark S&P 500, with the sector leading gains.

International Business Machines slumped 8.2% after the company said 15 of its government contracts were shelved under a cost-cutting drive by the Trump administration, while Proctor & Gamble was down 3.7% after cutting annual profit forecasts.

No one in America is more highly qualified to lead the SEC in this exciting time than Paul.

These declines weighed heavily on the blue-chip Dow.

Economic data, however, helped recover some sentiment. Reports showed a moderate rise in weekly jobless claims and a much larger-than-expected jump in March orders for durable goods.

Escalating trade tensions and a worries of an economic slowdown in the U.S., alongside concerns over the threats to the independence of the central bank have caused investors to exit U.S. equities.

All three major indexes are in the red year-to-date and the S&P 500 is down over 12% from its February record high. Deutsche Bank on Thursday slashed its year-end target for the benchmark index to 6,150 from 7,000 previously.

Alaska Airlines fell 10.6% after withdrawing financial forecasts. Southwest Airlines reversed premarket losses to gain 2.4%.

Software firm ServiceNow, on the other hand, leapt 13.2% after beating first-quarter profit estimates.

Alphabet is set to report after the closing bell.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is also scheduled to speak later in the day.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.66-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.38-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 posted one new 52-week high and one new low, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 11 new highs and 19 new lows.

Source: Reuters

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Michelle

Economic

Forex

The EUR/USD currency pair continues to move within the development of a bearish correction and a bullish channel. The moving averages indicate the presence of a short-term upward trend for the pair. Prices have broken through the area between the signal lines upwards, which indicates pressure from buyers of the European currency and a potential continuation of the growth of the currency pair quotes from the current levels. At the time of publication of the forecast, the Euro to Dollar exchange rate for today is 1.1383. As part of the Forex forecast for April 25, 2025, we should expect an attempt to develop a bearish price correction and a test of the support level, which is located on the EUR/USD pair near the 1.1345 area. Next, an upward price rebound and continued growth of the Euro Dollar currency pair. The potential target of such a movement on FOREX is the area above the 1.1745 level.

EUR/USD Forecast Euro Dollar for April 25, 2025

An additional signal in favor of the development of a bullish scenario on the EUR/USD currency pair tomorrow will be a rebound from the ascending trend line on the RSI indicator. The second signal in favor of this option will be a rebound from the lower border of the bullish channel. The cancellation of the growth option for the Euro Dollar currency pair tomorrow will be a fall and a breakout of the 1.1145 level. This will indicate a breakout of the support area and a continuation of the fall to the area at the level of 1.1065. Confirmation of the rise in the EUR/USD currency pair should be expected with a breakout of the resistance area at the level of 1.1565.

EUR/USD Forecast Euro Dollar for April 25, 2025 suggests an attempt to develop a bearish correction of the pair and a test of the support area near the level of 1.1345. Where should we consider the upward rebound in the price of the Euro Dollar currency pair and an attempt to continue the growth of the asset on the market to the area above the level of 1.1745. An additional signal in favor of the instrument’s rise on the Forex market will be a test of the support line on the relative strength indicator (RSI). The cancellation of the growth option for the EUR/USD pair will be a drop in quotes and a breakout of the 1.1145 level. This will indicate a breakout of the support area and a continuation of the fall of the currency pair on Forex to the area below the 1.1065 level.

Source: forex24.pro

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Adam

Economic

Jobless Claims Rise Slightly; Durable Goods Boosted by Transport

Initial claims for unemployment insurance edged up modestly last week, underscoring a labor market that remains broadly resilient even as pockets of industry-specific layoffs emerge. Meanwhile, durable goods orders posted a strong headline gain, driven almost entirely by transportation, raising questions about the depth of industrial demand.

Initial Claims Tick Higher, But Core Indicators Remain Stable

For the week ending April 19, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims rose by 6,000 to 222,000, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The prior week’s level was revised up slightly to 216,000. The four-week moving average, which smooths short-term volatility, declined by 750 to 220,250—suggesting overall stability in labor market conditions. The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2%, while the total number of continuing claims decreased by 37,000 to 1.84 million.

Unadjusted Claims Reflect Regional and Sector Pressures

Unadjusted data showed a more pronounced weekly drop, with claims falling 5.1% to 209,782—less than the 7.6% decline seasonal models had projected. Layoffs were concentrated in manufacturing and construction-heavy states like Kentucky (+4,292), Missouri (+1,974), and Pennsylvania (+1,858), suggesting localized labor softness. Conversely, California, Tennessee, and Oregon saw sharp declines in claims, helping balance the national picture.

Durable Goods Surge Led by Transportation

March’s new orders for durable goods rose by 9.2%, or $26.6 billion, to $315.7 billion, the third consecutive monthly increase. However, excluding transportation, new orders were flat, highlighting a narrow driver behind the gain. Transportation equipment orders soared 27.0% to $124.6 billion, reflecting strength in the commercial aviation and automotive sectors. Orders excluding defense rose 10.4%, indicating robust private-sector investment appetite.

Trader Implications: Mixed Signals for Macro Outlook

While durable goods data shows headline strength, the underlying flat trend excluding transportation warrants caution. Meanwhile, steady insured unemployment and muted initial claims growth signal continued labor market strength, though sector-specific risks are emerging. Traders should weigh these counterbalancing signals carefully, especially with recent industrial momentum concentrated in a single segment.

Market Forecast: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish

The short-term outlook is neutral to cautiously bullish, supported by a stable jobs market and solid private-sector investment in select industries. However, the concentration of durable goods gains in transportation and regional job losses in manufacturing suggest traders should remain selective in their exposure, particularly within cyclical sectors.

source: fxempire

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Warren Takunda

Economic

The European Parliament and China are "in the final stages" of the process of removing retaliatory sanctions imposed by Beijing on a handful of lawmakers in 2021, a controversial move that prompted the collapse of a high-stakes investment deal.

The overture comes amid growing speculation of an impending reset in EU-China relations driven by the disruptive policies of Donald Trump, which have antagonised allies and adversaries alike and sent nations into a scramble for new partnerships.

"Discussions with the Chinese authorities are continuing and in their final stages," a spokesperson from the Parliament said in a statement.

"It has always been the European Parliament's intention to have the sanctions lifted and resume relations with China."

The Parliament's president, Roberta Metsola, is leading the negotiations and will inform leaders of the political groups "once the Chinese authorities officially confirm that sanctions have been lifted," the spokesperson noted.

The Chinese Mission to the EU did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

The political dispute dates back to March 2021, when the 27 member states agreed to sanction four Chinese officials and one entity accused of committing human rights violations against the Uyghur Muslin minority in the Xinjiang region.

Beijing struck back with tit-for-tat restrictions, targeting ten European individuals, including five MEPs, and four entities.

The MEPs were specifically selected because of their work in EU-China relations and foreign interference. Michael Gahler (Germany/EPP), Raphaël Glucksmann (France/S&D), Ilhan Kyuchyuk (Bulgaria/Renew Europe) and Miriam Lexmann (Slovakia/EPP) are still in office, while Reinhard Butikofer (Germany/Greens) left the hemicycle last year.

The entities blacklisted by China included the Parliament's Subcommittee on Human Rights and the EU Council's Political and Security Committee (PSC).

It is not clear if the Metsola-led discussions are aimed at lifting all the sanctions in place or only those against sitting MEPs.

A contentious deal

The fact that Beijing went after democratically elected lawmakers was met with a furious response in Brussels and across the bloc. A few months after the retaliation, the Parliament overwhelmingly voted to freeze the ratification of the comprehensive investment agreement (CAI) that the EU and China had announced in late 2020.

The agreement, concluded only in principle, was meant to open market access for EU investors and ensure fairer treatment for EU companies that operate in China. The text was based on commitments to alleviate long-standing friction points about state-owned companies, industrial subsidies and the forced transfer of technology.

While initially hailed as a landmark, the agreement was quickly criticised for what critics said were insufficient provisions regarding labour rights. International organisations and media outlets have detailed a policy of forced labour and political indoctrination inside the mass detention camps in Xinjiang. The facilities have also been plagued by accusations of torture, disappearance, forced sterilisation and sexual violence.

Following the 2021 dispute, the CAI was abandoned by Brussels and never brought back to the table, despite Beijing's repeated attempts to revive the text.

Since the signature, market access in China has become increasingly restrictive to foreign companies due to stringent regulations, government pressure and geopolitical tensions, precipitating a plunge in investment flows and business confidence.

Asked if the diplomatic overture could justify rescuing the deal, the European Commission avoided speculation. "We'll cross that bridge when we're that far," a Commission spokesperson said on Thursday.

Faced with Trump's punitive tariffs, Brussels has stepped up its engagement with other countries around the globe, such as Canada, Norway, Iceland, New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates, to shore up alternative commercial routes for EU exporters.

Earlier this month, Ursula von der Leyen held a phone call with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, fuelling talk of a reset after years of confrontation. The read-out released by Li's office was notably optimistic, highlighting a "momentum of steady growth" in bilateral ties.

The Commission has since tried to temper the enthusiasm, pointing to Beijing's continued support for Moscow and the risk of having the EU market flooded with cheap goods that China can no longer sell to America due to the prohibitively high tariffs.

The optics of an EU-China rapprochement could derail the hopes of reaching a compromise with the Trump administration, which pursues a hard line on Beijing. Brussels, however, has also made it clear that the bloc would not seek to decouple from the Chinese economy as a condition for winning a reprieve from Trump's tariffs.

Source: Euronews

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Glendon

Economic

Forex

The head of the International Monetary Fund urged countries to move “swiftly’’ to resolve trade disputes that threaten global economic growth.

IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said the unpredictability arising from President Donald Trump’s aggressive campaign of taxes on foreign imports is causing companies to delay investments and consumers to hold off on spending.

“Uncertainty is bad for business,’’ she told reporters Thursday in a briefing during the spring meetings of the IMF and its sister agency, the World Bank.

Georgieva’s comments came two days after the IMF downgraded the outlook for world economic growth this year. The 191-country lending organization, which seeks to promote global growth, financial stability and to reduce poverty, also sharply lowered its forecast for the United States. It said the chances that the world’s biggest economy would fall into recession have risen from 25%, to about 40%.

Georgieva warned that the economic fallout from trade conflict would fall most heavily on poor countries, which do not have the money to offset the damage.

Since returning the White House in January, Trump has aggressively imposed tariffs on American trading partners. Among other things, he’s slapped 145% import taxes on China and 10% on almost every country in the world, raising U.S. tariffs to levels not seen in more than a century. But he has repeatedly changed U.S. policy — suddenly suspending or altering the tariffs — and left companies bewildered about what he is trying to accomplish and what his end game might be.

Trump’s tariffs — a sharp reversal of decades of U.S. policy in favor of free trade — and the resulting uncertainty around them have caused a weekslong rout in financial markets. But stocks rallied Wednesday after the Trump administration signaled that it is open to reducing the massive tariffs on China. “There is an opportunity for a big deal here,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Key takeaways:

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are at their highest since January 2025.

Inflows to exchanges down to levels last seen in December 2016.

Bitcoin’s negative funding rates could set up a short squeeze.

BTC price is above major moving averages, which can now provide support.

Bitcoin’s price rose to a new range high at $94,700 on April 23, its highest value since March 2.

Several analysts say the next psychological resistance remains at $95,000, and the price might drop to test support levels below.

“The $94K–$95K zone is clearly the resistance to beat,” said Swissblock in an April 24 post on X.

The onchain data provider asserted that the next logical move for Bitcoin would be a pullback toward the $90,000 zone to gain momentum for a move higher.

“The $89K–$90K zone could be next to test bulls, but with BTC’s structure strength, these dips are for buying.”

BTC/USD chart. Source: Swissblock

Popular Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC opined that the asset will likely consolidate in the $93,000-$95,000 range “before pushing higher to take liquidity above 100K.”

Source: AlphBTC

Several bullish signs suggest that BTC is well-positioned to break above $95,000 in the following days or weeks.

Bitcoin ETF demand rebounds

One factor supporting the Bitcoin bull argument is resurgent institutional demand, reflected by significant inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

On April 22 and April 23, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net flow totaling $936 million and $917 million, respectively, as per data from SoSoValue.

As Cointelegraph reported, these inflows have been the highest since January 2025 and more than 500 times the 2025 daily average. Bitcoin's Next Big Resistance Is $95K — What Will Trigger the Breakout?_3

Bitcoin's Next Big Resistance Is $95K — What Will Trigger the Breakout?_3

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows. Source: SoSoValue

This trend reflects growing confidence among traditional finance players, as observed by market analysts like Jamie Coutts, who noted global liquidity hitting new all-time highs, historically fueling asset price rallies. Bitcoin's Next Big Resistance Is $95K — What Will Trigger the Breakout?_4

Bitcoin's Next Big Resistance Is $95K — What Will Trigger the Breakout?_4

Source: Jamie Coutts

Institutional buying creates sustained upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price by absorbing the available supply.

Less BTC supply on crypto exchanges

The trend of decreasing Bitcoin exchange inflows continues, suggesting a potential reduction in sell pressure.

The total amount of coins transferred to the exchanges has dropped from a year-to-date high of 97,940 BTC per day on Feb. 25 to 45,000 BTC on April 23, as per data from CryptoQuant.

This is reinforced by a reduction in the number of addresses depositing Bitcoin to exchanges, which has been “steadily declining since 2022,” according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr.

He highlights that this metric’s 30-day moving average has dropped to 52,000 BTC, a level last seen in December 2016.

“This trend is bullish in itself,” as it represents a fourfold reduction in coin sales over the last three years, the analyst said, adding:

“Essentially, this represents growing HODL sentiment, which significantly reduces selling pressure, creating a foundation for further growth.”

Bitcoin exchange depositing address count. Source: CryptoQuant

Negative funding rates can fuel BTC rally

Bitcoin price has rebounded to levels last seen in early March, but futures trades are not entirely on board yet.

Bitcoin’s perpetual futures funding rates remained negative between April 22 and April 23, despite the price rising by 11% over the same period, data from Glassnode shows. Bitcoin's Next Big Resistance Is $95K — What Will Trigger the Breakout?_6

Bitcoin's Next Big Resistance Is $95K — What Will Trigger the Breakout?_6

Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rates. Source: Glassnode

Negative funding rates imply that shorts are paying longs, reflecting a bearish sentiment that can fuel a short squeeze as prices rise.

In an April 22 post on X, CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost highlighted a similar divergence in Bitcoin’s price and Binance funding rates.

“Whereas BTC continues to climb, funding rates on Binance have turned negative, currently sitting at around -0.006 at the time of writing,” Darkfost explained.

He added that this is a rare occurrence, which has historically been followed by significant rallies, like Bitcoin’s surge from $28,000 to $73,000 in October 2023, and from $57,000 to $108,000 in September 2024. Bitcoin's Next Big Resistance Is $95K — What Will Trigger the Breakout?_7

Bitcoin's Next Big Resistance Is $95K — What Will Trigger the Breakout?_7

Bitcoin funding rates on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

If history repeats itself, Bitcoin may rally from the current levels, breaking above the resistance at $95,000 toward $100,000.

Bitcoin trades above the 200-day SMA

On April 22, Bitcoin price rose above a key level: the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) currently at $88,690, fueling a marketwide recovery.

The last time the BTC price broke above the 200-day SMA, it experienced a parabolic move, rallying 80% from $66,000 on Oct. 14, 2024, to its previous all-time high of $108,000 on Dec. 17.

This level should provide significant support as Bitcoin trades above this key trendline. But if it doesn’t hold, the following levels to watch will likely be $84,379, the 50-day SMA, and the $80,000 psychological level. Bitcoin's Next Big Resistance Is $95K — What Will Trigger the Breakout?_8

Bitcoin's Next Big Resistance Is $95K — What Will Trigger the Breakout?_8

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

For the bulls, the resistance levels at $95,000 and $100,000 are the primary ones to watch. Rising above that would pave the way for a run toward the Jan. 20 all-time high above $109,000.