US Manufacturing Surveys Show Weakness Continued In November

Economic

Summary:

This morning's survey data on the US manufacturing economy comes as the post-shutdown slump in 'soft' data has dominated desk conversations amid the vacuum of hard macro data...

But the picture remains mixed:

●S&P Global's US Manufacturing PMI BEAT expectations in November but dipped on a MoM basis from 52.5 to 52.2 (still in expansion territory and up from the 51.9 flash print).

●ISM's Manufacturing PMI MISSED expectations, dropping from 48.7 to 48.2 (well below the 49.0 expectation) and in contraction for the ninth month in a row.

Although the headline PMI signalled a further expansion of factory activity in November, "the health of the US manufacturing sector gets more worrying the more you scratch under the surface," according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"The main impetus came from a strong rise in factory production, but growth in new order inflows slowed sharply, hinting at a marked weakening of demand growth."

Under the hood, ISM shows Price Paid higher, and new orders and employment worsening...

For two successive months now, warehouses have filled with unsold stock to a degree not previously seen since comparable data were available in 2007. This unplanned accumulation of stock is usually a precursor to reduced production in the coming months.

"Profit margins are meanwhile coming under pressure from a combination of disappointing sales, stiff competition and rising input costs, the latter widely linked to tariffs.

In short, Williamson notes that manufacturers are making more goods but often not finding buyers for these products.

"This combination of sustained robust production growth alongside weaker than expected sales led to a worryingly steep rise in unsold inventories.

However, there is hope, as manufacturers have grown more optimistic about the year ahead, with the ending of the government shutdown helping lift confidence from the sharp drop suffered in October.

"Optimism is being fueled by hopes of improved policy support, including lower interest rates, as well as greater political stability, though it is clear that uncertainty remains elevated and a drag on business growth in many firms, holding confidence well below levels seen at the start of the year."

Source: Zero Hedge

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Justin

Economic

India's current account deficit widened in the July–to-September quarter as US President Donald Trump's 50% tariff hurt the country's exports.

The shortfall in the broadest measure of trade in goods and services was $12.3 billion, or 1.3% of gross domestic product in the three months, according to Reserve Bank of India data released Monday. The gap was smaller than the median forecast of a $15.4 billion gap in a Bloomberg survey on strong remittances and services exports. It stood at $2.7 billion in the April-to-June period.

Gold prices surged, pushing up import costs, while exports remained under pressure from the 50% tariff imposed by Trump, partly in response to India's Russian oil purchases. The wider current account gap may put additional pressure on the rupee, which slid to a record low of 89.64 per dollar on Monday.

"Looking ahead, the spike in gold imports in October 2025 is likely to bloat the ongoing quarter's current account deficit considerably to above 2.5% of GDP," said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA Ltd.

The merchandise trade gap in the quarter narrowed slightly to $87.4 billion, from $88.5 billion a year ago, the RBI data showed. Services exports climbed to $50.9 billion, from $44.5 billion a year earlier mainly because of computer services, the central bank said.

Private transfer receipts, mainly representing remittances by Indians employed overseas, amounted to $38.2 billion, up from $34.4 billion from the corresponding period a year earlier.

Net foreign direct investment recorded a net inflow of $2.9 billion, compared with a net outflow of $2.8 billion a year ago. Foreign portfolio investment recorded net outflow of $5.7 billion against a net inflow of $19.9 billion in the year-ago quarter.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Justin

Stocks

Economic

New facility is set to be South Korea's most advanced automated hub for clinical logistics and sourcing, reinforcing the nation's position as a leader in clinical research innovation

Gyeonggi-do, South Korea Zuellig Pharma, a leading healthcare solutions company in Asia, today announced the grand opening of its new state-of-the-art Clinical Trial Support (CTS) Innovation Center in South Korea.

The opening of this facility underscores Zuellig Pharma's continued investment and commitment to advancing healthcare, reinforcing its position as a trusted regional partner in driving meaningful outcomes for patients, partners, and communities across the region.

Strategically located near the Gyeongbu Expressway in Gyeonggi-do province, the new 3,800-square-meter facility is set to redefine standards in clinical trial logistics through automation, digitalization, and stringent Good Practice (GxP) compliance. It is designed to enhance operational efficiency, scalability, and reliability across diverse therapeutic areas.

"As part of an integrated healthcare solutions company, this milestone marks a significant step forward for Zuellig Pharma in remaining agile and responsive to the evolving clinical trial landscape. It also reflects Zuellig Pharma's continued commitment to advancing healthcare through innovation and sustainable infrastructure, creating greater access to treatments and delivering meaningful outcomes for partners and communities we serve," said John Graham, CEO of Zuellig Pharma.

The facility is equipped with advanced capabilities that set new standards for clinical trial logistics. It features a fully automated order fulfillment system that enhances the speed, accuracy, and reliability of clinical supply delivery. Its flexible and scalable architecture ensures uninterrupted operations, while robust cybersecurity measures safeguard sensitive clinical trial data.

In addition, the facility provides comprehensive temperature-zone support, enabling Zuellig Pharma to manage thousands of unique clinical trial SKUs under strict ambient, cold, frozen, deep frozen, cryogenic and return storage conditions. This ensures that temperature-sensitive products are handled with the highest level of precision throughout the entire supply chain.

Designed with precision, the facility's specialized repackaging infrastructure is built to accommodate controlled environments tailored to ambient, cold, frozen, and amber light repackaging specifications. These environments meet stringent clinical and regulatory standards, ensuring product integrity is maintained throughout the clinical trial lifecycle. Furthermore, an integrated end-to-end tracking and monitoring system provides full chain-of-custody, complete traceability, and adherence to GxP requirements, reinforcing quality and compliance at every stage.

"As of 2025, South Korea ranks among the world's top 10 clinical trials markets and holds the third-largest number of R&D pipelines globally. Our new facility has been built to meet this rising demand, redefining how investigational products are stored, managed, and distributed. With precision in mind, we aim to enable the reliable delivery of critical therapies to improve patient access and outcomes worldwide," added Giuseppe Leo, SVP, Clinical Trial Support Business Unit Lead, Zuellig Pharma.

Over the past year, the center has supported over 3,000 cumulative studies in collaboration with more than 100 clients, managing an annual volume of approximately 13,000 outbound shipments, including chemical, biologics, medical devices and cellular and gene therapies. Its extensive track record includes partnerships with 14 of the world's top 20 pharmaceutical companies and 8 of the top 10 global CROs, underscoring its position as a trusted partner in global clinical trial research.

Source: TradingView

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Michelle

Forex

Stocks

Economic

The latest data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) has revealed that the October 2025 UK car production dropped by 23.8% compared to the previous year.

The reduction followed a temporary halt at one of the country's largest automotive employers, which had paused operations due to a cyber incident before gradually resuming output.

In October, UK factories produced 59,010 cars, which is 18,474 fewer than in the same month of the previous year. Of these vehicles, nearly half (46.2%) were battery electric, plug-in hybrid or hybrid models.

This segment saw a volume increase of 10.4% year-on-year, reaching 27,287 units.

Cars manufactured for the domestic market declined by 10.6% to 13,785 units.

Production of commercial vehicles continued to decrease for the seventh consecutive month, falling by 74.9% to 3,106 units.

This trend followed a consolidation of manufacturing operations in the North West by a large producer.

Overall car and van output combined was down by 30.9% in October with a total of 62,116 vehicles leaving assembly lines.

This update came shortly after the Chancellor's recent Budget announcement. Among the measures outlined were an additional £1.5bn ($1.98bn) for automotive transformation projects and a postponement of regulations that would end certain car ownership schemes for employees until the next parliament.

Other market policies included an extra £1.3bn allocated to the Electric Car Grant and adjustments to the VED [vehicle excise duty] expensive car supplement intended to reduce tax on some electric vehicles.

So far this year, UK manufacturers have produced 644,366 cars and vans—a drop of 17% compared with the same period last year.

According to independent forecasts cited by SMMT, production is expected to rise again in 2026 when new electric vehicle models are introduced and annual output is predicted to reach around 828,000 cars and vans.

SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes said: "Another difficult month for UK vehicle production as the impact of the earlier cyber attack continued to be felt.

"Growth is on the horizon, however, and the [UK] government has recognised the automotive industry as a pillar of national strategic importance, backing it with an industrial strategy and additional £1.5bn to drive manufacturing competitiveness."

The SMMT also announced leadership changes with Kia UK president and CEO Paul Philpott becoming its 84th president effective from 1 January 2026.

He will succeed Adient vice-president Mick Flanagan, who steps down after completing his two-year tenure.

A previous SMMT report revealed that registrations of new heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) in the UK decreased by 14.5% during Q3 2025 with 9,272 new trucks entering service over that period.

"UK car production drops 23.8% in October 2025: SMMT" was originally created and published by Motor Finance Online, a GlobalData owned brand.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Adam

Economic

What happened last week

US economy slowdown: Data delayed by government shutdown revealed an uptick in wholesale inflation of 0.3% month-on-month (MoM) in September, in line with expectations, whilst retail sales growth slowed from 0.6% to 0.2% MoM. Consumer confidence in November dropped to the lowest level since April and private employment in ADP's weekly survey saw a decline of 13,500 jobs. These economic data provide more justification for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut rates at its December meeting.

Contraction in China: China's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) data shows manufacturing PMI at 49.2 – in contraction for the eighth consecutive month – whilst services and construction activities dropped below the growth threshold to 49.5, the first contraction in almost three years. The PMIs reveal weak demand in both domestic and overseas markets. Selling prices continued to fall amid intensive price competition. With limited policy support, China's 5% growth ambition may be at risk.

Accelerating prices in Australia: The Bureau of Statistics transitioned its full CPI report from quarterly to monthly starting October. Headline inflation rose 3.8% year-on-year (YoY) from September's 3.6%, driven by housing (+5.9%), food (+3.2%) and recreation (+3.2%). The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) preferred measure – trimmed mean CPI – spiked from 3% to 3.3%. Not only is a rate cut by February almost completely ruled out, but a small group of market participants are starting to bet on a hike next year.

Markets in focus

US stocks rebound on rate cut hopes

US equity markets rebounded sharply last week as latest economic data provided justification for a rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 10 December. The probability of a 25-basis point cut increased further from last week's 70% to close to 90%. The S&P 500 climbed 3.7%, closing just in positive territory for the month of November. The Nasdaq 100 rallied 4.9% – its best weekly performance since mid-May. The Volatility Index plunged, dropping to 16 from the previous peak of 28. That said, trading volume was 10–20% lower than the 30-day average due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

Last week's gains were led by technology stocks. The successful launch of Google's Gemini 3 AI model drove Alphabet's share price up by 6.8%, whilst its tensor processing unit (TPU) partner Broadcom surged 18.5%. Meanwhile, Nvidia's share price dropped 1.1% as reports of Google potentially selling its TPU externally may challenge Nvidia's dominance in the AI chip market. Agricultural equipment company Deere was the worst performing stock in the S&P 500 last week after reporting a decline in fourth-quarter earnings and a downward revision in 2026 forward guidance.

Last week's strong recovery has brought the US Tech 100 index back above the 50-day moving average (MA), indicating that the November correction is most likely complete. However, the uptrend is starting to lose momentum, demonstrated by the lower highs in the relative strength index (RSI). The index may trade sideways this week, bounded by resistance at around 25,700 and immediate support at 24,600. A break above 25,700 will open up a path towards the historic high.

Figure 1: US Tech 100 index (daily) price chart

as of 1 December 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Precious metals rally resumes

After a steep drawdown of 11% in October, gold prices bounced back to a two-week high above $4,200 per ounce, but remain 4% below the historical record set on 20 October. The latest upward move has been driven by a sharp reversal in Fed rate cut expectations after data revealed deceleration in the US economy. The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% briefly last week and the US dollar index declined by 0.7% to 99.4.

Investment sentiments have improved as many Wall Street analysts continue to be positive on gold's prospects in 2026. Bank of America has set a target of $5,000 by the end of next year, whilst Deutsche Bank has a more conservative base case target of $4,450. According to a survey conducted on 900 institutional investors by Goldman Sachs, over 70% of respondents see gold rising next year. Exchange-traded fund (ETF) net flows reverted to positive since the second week of November.

Silver, which is considered a higher beta instrument than gold, surged 11% in the past week and set a fresh historic record of $56.5 amid low liquidity on Black Friday. In addition to safe-haven demand and increasing investment flows to diversify from fiat currencies, silver also receives significant demand from industrial applications.

The gold price daily chart shows an ascending triangle pattern. A successful breakout at current levels will indicate the resumption of a bullish trend towards October's high at $4,381. Failure to breach may result in a pullback towards the 50-day MA at $4,090.

Figure 2: Spot gold (daily) price chart

as of 1 December 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The silver chart displays a strong bullish breakout. Silver has cleared a significant previous resistance level from the previous high at $54.4 and is accelerating upward, establishing a new high. The trend is clearly bullish. However, the market is entering overbought territory based on the RSI, which suggests a potential short-term technical correction is likely before the bullish trend resumes. It should find support from the previous high.

Figure 3: Spot silver (daily) price chart

as of 1 December 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The week ahead

The coming week centres on inflation dynamics and business activity indicators that will prove critical for monetary policy decisions ahead of year-end central bank meetings.

Friday's core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index represents the final major inflation gauge before the Fed's December policy meeting. Markets anticipate a 0.2% month-on-month reading, consistent with August's figure. Any deviation could alter expectations regarding the Fed's policy stance, particularly as the central bank weighs inflation persistence against a softening labour market. The release of personal income and spending data alongside the PCE will provide additional perspective on consumer resilience.

Manufacturing and services sector health will be assessed through PMI readings. The US ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to remain in contraction territory, whilst the services PMI should indicate healthy growth in the economy's dominant sector.

Euro area inflation data on Tuesday will prove equally significant. The anticipated acceleration to 2.2% YoY could challenge the European Central Bank's (ECB) current wait-and-see approach, as policymakers have indicated the current monetary stance seems appropriate. A material deviation from consensus could prompt reassessment of whether rates require adjustment from their present neutral level. Markets largely expect rates to remain unchanged in 2026.

On the corporate front, CrowdStrike and Salesforce report results, providing insights into enterprise technology spending and cybersecurity demand as companies finalise budgets for 2026.

Source: ig

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Keir Starmer has increased pressure on the head of the government’s spending watchdog over the budget leak by saying that while he was “very supportive” of the institution, a “serious error” had been made.

The prime minister said the breach of market-sensitive information, shortly before Rachel Reeves delivered her statement last week, was a “massive discourtesy” to parliament.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is expected to publish the result of its investigation into the leak on Monday afternoon, with the future of Richard Hughes, its chair, looking increasingly uncertain.

Starmer defended his chancellor in a speech that No 10 hopes will bolster Reeves’s position after days of criticism that she misled the cabinet, MPs and the public by claiming there was a hole in the public finances to justify tax rises.

While rebutting those claims, he also set out a multiyear economic plan based around deregulation, further welfare overhauls and closer European ties before the next election.

And he told his audience he was confident the UK had “walked through the narrowest part of the tunnel” on the cost of living – and that “bit by bit” people would see a country that shrugged off the sense that things could never be better.

But with much of the focus at Westminster on tensions between the OBR and the government, Starmer told the Guardian he was “very supportive” of the budget watchdog – but stopped short of giving Hughes his full confidence.

“I’m very supportive of the OBR. It is, in my view, vital for stability and inbuilt in our fiscal rules, which I’ve said a number of times are iron-clad. So look, I’m not going to suggest that what happened last week, which was the entire budget being published before the chancellor got to her feet, was not anything other than a serious error.

“This was market-sensitive information. It was a massive discourtesy to parliament. It’s a serious error, and there’s an investigation that’s going on.”

In his defence of Reeves, the prime minister said the OBR’s productivity downgrade had left the government with a “starting point” of £16bn less than otherwise expected.

Ministers had already made public spending commitments, including on the NHS, he said, and he also wanted measures to help with the cost of living and to double the fiscal headroom.

But he admitted publicly for the first time that in the run-up to the budget, he had considered breaking Labour’s manifesto pledge not to raise income tax.

“It was inevitable that we would always have to raise revenue. So there’s no misleading there,” he said. “There was a point at which we thought, myself included, that we might have to reach for a manifesto breach of some significance.

“As the process then continued, it became clear to me and others that we might be able to do what we needed to do with our priorities without that manifesto breach.”

Starmer said he was proud to be tackling the cost of living through cuts to energy bills, freezing rail fares and boosting the minimum wage. He added that lifting the two-child benefit limit was “a moment of personal pride for me”.

“On the substance of the budget, I’d defend it any day of the week, they’re the right steps for our country, and I’m proud that we’ve taken them,” he said.

But he acknowledged there were still big challenges ahead. “I will level with you, as the budget showed, the path to a Britain that is truly built for all requires many more decisions that are not cost free, and they’re not easy.”

Setting out his plans for the remaining years of this parliament, Starmer said he believed “we do need to get closer” to the EU. “It is clear from all of the analysis that the [Brexit] deal that we’ve got has hurt our economy. That’s why we’ve rebuilt relations and reset relations with the EU and I’m proud that we’ve done that. That is why we’re moving forward.”

He said he was “crystal clear” there was no credible economic future for Britain that did not involve open trade. “So for economic renewal, we have to keep reducing frictions. We have to keep moving towards a closer relationship with the EU, and we have to be grown-up about that, to accept that this will require trade-offs.”

The prime minister also said the welfare system must be overhauled, after attempts earlier this year failed: “We’ve got to transform it; we also have to confront the reality that our welfare state is trapping people, not just in poverty, but out of work.”

Source: Theguardian

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Adam

Economic

U.S. stock futures inch down ahead of the start of trading for December, with investors keeping tabs on a possible fading in risk sentiment underscored by artificial intelligence sector worries. Still, the S&P 500 is up by roughly 16% so far this year, and historically December has been a stronger month for the benchmark index. Black Friday spending online spikes, even as fears swirl around waning U.S. consumer confidence. Elsewhere, oil ticks higher after the OPEC+ producer group backs a plan to hold output steady in the first three months of 2026.

Futures edge down

U.S. stock futures pointed lower on Monday, as the final trading month of the year gets underway with investors eyeing the trajectory of artificial intelligence industry profits and bets on a potential U.S. interest rate reduction later this month.

By 03:16 ET (08:16 GMT), the Dow futures contract had slipped by 234 points, or 0.5%, S&P 500 futures had dropped by 41 points, or 0.6%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had declined by 189 points, or 0.7%.

The main averages on Wall Street rose on Friday, which featured thin volumes in a session shortened by the Thanksgiving holiday.

For the week, all three of major indices gained by more than 3%. The benchmark S&P 500 and blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average also closed out a positive November, although the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ended down 1.51%, echoing recent concerns over the sustainability of frothy tech valuations and soaring -- and often debt-fueled -- spending on AI.

In individual stocks, shares of CME Group ticked up slightly. The company was in the spotlight after an outage caused futures contracts covering everything from stocks to currencies to temporarily come to a halt before the start of the holiday-truncated session.

Black Friday consumer spending surges

Facing an uncertain economic environment and a weakening labor market, U.S. consumer confidence at the start of the all-important holiday shopping season is hovering at a seven-month low.

But, harnessing AI-enhanced shopping tools to compare prices and hunt for discounts, Americans’ online spending on Black Friday still surged this year.

U.S. shoppers spent an all-time high $11.8 billion online the day after Thanksgiving, jumping by 9.1% from a year earlier, according to data from Adobe Analytics.

AI-driven traffic to U.S. retail sites grew by more than 800%, Adobe said. Last year, AI tools like Amazon’s Rufus or Walmart’s Sparky offerings had yet to be released.

Against this backdrop, e-commerce sales spiked by 10.4%, figures from Mastercard SpendingPulse showed.

Oil rises as OPEC+ holds output steady

Oil prices rose more than 1% on Monday, supported by OPEC+’s reaffirmation to hold output steady during the first quarter, and by renewed supply concerns stemming from geopolitical tensions.

As of 04:12 ET (09:12 GMT), Brent Oil Futures expiring in February rose 1.92% to $63.57 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also jumped 2.12% to $59.76 per barrel.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) on Sunday reiterated its plan to pause production increases through the first quarter of next year, maintaining voluntary cuts of roughly 3.24 million barrels per day.

The group signaled a cautious approach as it confronts uneven demand trends and what it sees as potential oversupply in oil markets next year.

Additional support for crude came from a series of attacks over the weekend on Russian energy infrastructure, which disrupted export operations.

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, a major conduit for Kazakh and Russian crude shipments through the Black Sea, said it had suspended loadings after a naval drone strike caused significant damage to a mooring point at its Novorossiysk terminal.

BOJ’s Ueda on possible rate hike

The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda suggested that policymakers would consider the “pros and cons” of raising interest rates at its upcoming December 18–19 meeting.

Ueda hinted as well that there is no clear opposition from new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a notable supporter of easier monetary policy, to raising rates, analysts at ING said.

"This second factor had been crucial for markets, whose basic understanding was that Takaichi was a dovish-leaning influence," they wrote.

Investors interpreted Ueda’s phrasing as hawkish, lifting expectations that the BOJ could deliver its first rate increase since exiting negative rates earlier this year.

The yen was also bolstered by a rise in Japanese government bond yields, as traders priced in a higher probability of tightening.

Asian manufacturing sector data in focus

Meanwhile, traders were sifting through a raft of manufacturing sector readings in Asia.

China’s factory activity slipped further into contraction, with both official and private gauges suggesting an eighth straight month of declines.

The data pointed to subdued domestic demand and weak external orders in the world’s second-largest economy due partially to U.S. tariff pressures, extending concerns that China’s recovery remains uneven despite recent policy support.

In Japan, the manufacturing sector shrank for the fifth consecutive month in November, albeit at its lowest rate since August. South Korea’s monthly purchasing managers’ index also contracted again, dragged by soft demand and slowing export momentum.