US Judge Reaffirms Nationwide Injunction Blocking Trump Executive Order on Birthright Citizenship

Political

Summary:

White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said in a statement that "courts are misinterpreting the purpose and the text" of the U.S. Constitution's 14th Amendment.

A federal judge in Massachusetts ruled on Friday that a nationwide injunction he issued in February that blocked President Donald Trump's executive order limiting birthright citizenship should remain in place.

In a written ruling, U.S. District Judge Leo Sorokin in Boston said his earlier nationwide injunction was the only way to provide complete relief to a coalition of Democratic-led states that brought the lawsuit before him, rejecting the Trump administration's argument that a narrower ruling was warranted because of a June decision from the U.S. Supreme Court.

Sorokin wrote that the evidence before him "does not support a finding that any narrower option would feasibly and adequately protect the plaintiffs from the injuries they have shown they are likely to suffer if the unlawful policy announced in the Executive Order takes effect during the pendency of this lawsuit."

White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said in a statement that "courts are misinterpreting the purpose and the text" of the U.S. Constitution's 14th Amendment.

"We look forward to being vindicated on appeal," Jackson said.

New Jersey Attorney General Matthew J. Platkin, a Democrat, said in a statement that the states were thrilled with the decision.

"American-born babies are American, just as they have been at every other time in our nation’s history. The president cannot change that legal rule with the stroke of a pen.”

The Supreme Court's June 27 ruling in litigation over Trump's birthright citizenship order limited the ability of judges to issue so-called "universal" injunctions -- in which a single district court judge can block enforcement of a federal policy across the country -- and directed lower courts that had blocked the Republican president's policy nationally to reconsider the scope of their orders.

But the ruling contained exceptions allowing courts to potentially still block it across the country again.

That has already allowed a judge in New Hampshire to once again halt Trump's order from taking effect by issuing an injunction in a nationwide class action of children who would be denied citizenship under the policy.

A federal appeals court in California on Wednesday said Trump's executive order violated the citizenship clause of the U.S. Constitution's 14th Amendment by denying citizenship to many persons born in the U.S., and blocked its enforcement nationwide.

Trump signed the executive order on January 20, his first day back in office, as part of his crackdown on immigration.

The executive order directed federal agencies to refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children who do not have at least one parent who is an American citizen or lawful permanent resident, also known as a "green card" holder.

It was swiftly challenged in court by Democratic attorneys general from 22 states and immigrant rights advocates who argued it was unconstitutional.

Last week, the states had argued at a hearing before Sorokin that a nationwide injunction was essential. They said restricting birthright citizenship in some states but not others would make it difficult to administer federal benefits programs like Medicaid. A patchwork approach would also lead to confusion among immigrant parents and a surge of people moving to states where Trump's executive order is on hold, straining resources, they argued.

The Justice Department had countered that the states, by continuing to advocate for universal relief, had failed to come to grips with the Supreme Court's decision.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Political

A federal appeals court on Friday struck down 2023 regulations adopted by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on funding a comprehensive market surveillance system, finding that Wall Street's top regulator had not provided a sufficient basis for allowing stock exchanges to pass on its costs to their members, court papers showed.

The unanimous decision represented another blow to SEC regulations adopted under the previous Biden administration, which faced concerted opposition from industry and Republican lawmakers. It was also a setback for the Consolidated Audit Trail, a repository of investor and transaction data meant to give regulators overarching visibility into U.S. market operations, but which has faced delays and obstacles for more than a decade.

The American Securities Association and Citadel Securities, which brought the lawsuit, both hailed the outcome.

The ruling "prevents a tax hike on every American investor who buys or sells a share of stock," ASA President Chris Iacovella said in a statement.

The SEC did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Over the objections of its Republican members, the SEC in 2023 split the operating costs among buyers, sellers, and exchanges. Officials said at the time this would divide costs evenly but also allow exchanges several years to recoup hundreds of millions already spent.

This drew stiff objections from the investment industry, which said it could be left paying an unfairly large share. The two Republicans are now part of the five-member commission's controlling majority.

In an opinion for a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for 11th Circuit, Circuit Judge Andrew Brasher said that, because the SEC had not advanced a sufficient justification in deciding how the system's cost would fall on different actors in the marketplace, "we conclude that the 2023 Funding Order is arbitrary and capricious" and therefore in violation of federal laws governing the crafting of regulations.

The appeals court sent the rule back to the SEC for further processing in line with the court's decision.

The SEC mandated the CAT's creation in 2012 as a response to the "flash crash" of 2010 when major Wall Street indexes temporarily erased nearly $1 trillion in market value in a matter of minutes. Officials say it can allow regulators to spot market manipulation and have cited its data in enforcement actions.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Political

Economic

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she will travel to Scotland this weekend to meet with US President Donald Trump, as the two sides aim to conclude a trade deal ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline when 30% tariffs on the bloc’s exports are otherwise due to kick in.

After months of talks and shuttle diplomacy between Brussels and Washington DC, the two sides have been zeroing in on an agreement this past week that would see the EU face 15% tariffs on most of its trade. Limited exemptions are expected for aviation, some medical devices and generic medicines, several spirits, and a specific set of manufacturing equipment that the US needs, Bloomberg previously reported.

Steel and aluminum imports would likely benefit from a quota under the arrangements under discussion but above that threshold they would face a higher tariff of 50%.

“We’ll see if we make a deal,” Trump said as he arrived in Scotland on Friday. “Ursula will be here, highly respected woman. So we look forward to that.”

Trump reiterated that he believed there was “a 50-50 chance” of a deal with the EU, saying there were sticking points on “maybe 20 different things” that he did not want to detail publicly.

“That would be actually the biggest deal of them all if we make it,” the president said.

Trump gave similar odds of an agreement with European negotiators in Washington before leaving, but also said the EU had a “pretty good chance” of reaching an agreement.

Trump announced tariffs on almost all US trading partners in April, declaring his intent to bring back domestic manufacturing, to pay for a massive tax-cut extension and to stop the rest of the world from taking advantage of the US. He has also sought to remove what he describes as barriers for American companies to do business around the world.

Alongside a universal levy, the US president has hit cars and auto parts with a 25% levy, and steel and aluminum with double that. He’s also threatened to target pharmaceuticals and semiconductors with new duties as early as next month, and recently announced a 50% tariff on copper.

The EU has been seeking quotas and a ceiling on future sectoral tariffs that the US has yet to implement but it’s unclear if an initial agreement will shield the bloc from potential future levies at this stage.

The agreement would also cover non-tariff barriers, cooperation on economic security matters and strategic purchases by the EU in sectors such as energy and artificial intelligence.

The terms of any initial deal, which is expected to take the form of a short joint statement, would need to be approved by member states, according to people familiar with the matter. The statement is seen as a stepping stone toward more detailed negotiations.

Because of the ongoing uncertainty, the EU has in parallel put together countermeasures in the event of a no-deal scenario, which would see it quickly hit American exports with up to 30% tariffs on some €100 billion ($117 billion) worth of goods — including Boeing Co. aircraft, US-made cars and bourbon whiskey — in the event of no-deal and if Trump carries through with his threat to impose that rate on most of the bloc’s exports after Aug. 1 or in future. The package also includes some export restrictions on scrap metals.

In a no-deal scenario, the bloc is also prepared to move forward with its anti-coercion instrument, a potent trade tool that would eventually allow it to also target other areas such as market access, services and restrictions on public contracts, provided that there is a majority of member states backing its use.

While Trump didn’t explicitly link negotiations to non-trade matters on Friday, he did suggest that he planned to raise concerns over migration flows. Trump has imposed strict anti-immigration policies since returning to office, carrying out a mass deportation effort of those in the US illegally while also reducing pathways to legally move to the US.

“You got to stop this horrible invasion that’s happening to Europe, many countries in Europe,” Trump said, adding that he believed “this immigration is killing Europe.”

Source: Bloomberg

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Commodity

Political

Chemical products companies in Brazil, which exported $2.4 billion to the U.S. last year, face a slew of contract cancellations as President Donald Trump has threatened a new 50% tariff on the South American nation's exports from August 1.

Since Trump's announcement, export orders have been canceled for certain resins and compounds used to make fertilizers, which Brazil supplies to the U.S. agriculture sector, Andre Cordeiro, head of Brazilian chemical lobby Abiquim, said on Friday.

"Fundamentally, these decisions are being made because the bet is that he will actually apply the tariff," Cordeiro said.

One company in Brazil had all its contracts for exports to the U.S. canceled, Cordeiro said, adding that other businesses have seen some of their contracts canceled. There are also cases where sellers had secured export financing for the order, which was later revoked.

He declined to name the affected exporters.

Losses associated with the tariffs go beyond direct exports, as almost every industry uses chemicals in manufacturing processes, from oil to steel, from machinery to production of agricultural commodities, he said.

"No one produces coffee, even grains, without some kind of chemical product in the process."

Cordeiro added that chemical companies are losing export business and also local sales to clients that export goods into the U.S. market.

Brazilian plywood exporters, for example, use chemicals for bonding and themselves have faced U.S. order cancellations, he said. Orange juice makers, which sent 42% of their exports to the U.S. last year, also use chemical preservatives.

Brazilian companies like Braskem have operations in the U.S. and could be affected.

Dow Chemical (DOW), which has 10 plants in Brazil and sizeable exports of silicon metal for processing in the U.S., is also at risk.

Braskem and Dow did not immediately comment.

Exxon Mobil (XOM), which declined to comment, operates in Brazil and serves clients in various industries.

Tariffs are unjustified because Brazil's chemical sector runs a $7.9 billion trade deficit with the U.S., Abiquim said.

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Forex

President Trump’s return to the White House has certainly paved the way for an eventful first half of 2025. Now, as the long-awaited August 1 deadline for reciprocal tariff deals between the US and its trading partners approaches, the dollar is once again heading into uncharted territory.

Much of the market uncertainty that’s been prompted by the president’s bold stance on tariffs has played out in real-time in the USD/EUR spot rate, which has been steadily losing strength since Trump’s inauguration in January.

Uncertainty has been a key theme for the dollar in 2025, and the unpredictability of the president’s stance on trade is about to reach new levels as his deadline for nations to agree to a trade deal with the United States is due to expire in the coming days.

While it’s likely that a number of deals will be confirmed prior to the August 1 deadline, President Trump has suggested that top trading partners like Canada, Mexico, and the European Union could soon face tariffs as high as 50%.

Trump has suggested that reciprocal tariffs on US trading partners are likely to range from 15% to 50%, with higher rates reserved for nations that are deemed to have made the negotiations process more challenging.

Should sweeping levies be put into effect, the cost of importing goods across countless industries could lead to price hikes for a number of everyday products and the possibility of confounding inflation rates returning in the United States.

But what does it mean for the strength of the dollar when faced with the euro and other trading pairs?

The Uneven Impact of Trade Uncertainty

Positive news emerging from the United States surrounding a trade deal with Japan and high expectations of a deal soon to be made with the European Union saw USD/EUR break out of a two-week low amid a sharp decline in the days prior.

But will the imposition of high tariffs on trading partners strengthen or weaken the US dollar? The answer appears to depend on which impacts on higher import costs take hold the most.

Strategists at Goldman Sachs suggested that trade uncertainty would carry a heavier burden on foreign countries than the US, but have since acknowledged that soft data in the United States has weighed in at odds with resilience in European sentiment.

As well as tariff policy uncertainty, federal spending cuts and concerns over a weakening labor market have also contributed to a shaky economic outlook for the US that’s entered the USD/EUR mix.

There have also been suggestions that a weaker US dollar could see more challenges among BRICS currencies to attempt to accelerate de-dollarization.

Despite this, the dollar still dominates the forex landscape, and while China’s renminbi is reportedly used in 50% of all intra-BRICS trade, it still accounted for just 2% of global transactions in May 2025, according to Swift data.

According to the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Europe may be forced to deal with a ‘dollar revaluation scenario’ in which USD experiences a prolonged period of weakness as opposed to the initial expectation of appreciation in response to tariffs.

This could occur because of the frequency with which global investors have increased their bond holdings, which has contributed to a strong dollar in recent years. If this process were to reverse as the appeal of US Treasuries weakens, CEPR estimates that the dollar may face fresh doubts over its safe-haven status.

What’s Next for USD/EUR?

It’s unlikely that the European Union will face exceptionally high tariffs as a result of its negotiations with the United States, and a softer trade deal will likely help the case for USD/EUR appreciation.

But adopting a more long-term outlook, many challenges could see currency appreciation fail to materialize for the dollar.

The prospect of uneven tariff deals means that import activities can shift between countries that are facing lower tariffs, or nearshoring businesses look to take advantage of neighbors close to the US to make the most of softer trade levies.

The coffee trade, for instance, is expected to lean more towards Colombia, Brazil, or Indonesia based on the outcome of different tariff rates, and this price-conscious selection process is expected to ring true for many trading partners.

There’s also the danger of foreign retaliation for the dollar to contend with, which could eat into the economic advantages of higher tariff rates on US imports.

The inflationary impact of tariffs may have the final say on the long-term outlook for USD/EUR. Should the August 1 deadline on negotiations lead to increased consumer costs, the higher cost of goods and weaker competition could lead to a rate of inflation that weakens the dollar as a whole, regardless of the outcome of US and EU trade negotiations.

Preparing for Uncertainty

President Donald Trump has long identified tariffs as a leading revenue stream for the United States, and after August, we’ll gain a more holistic view of what the outlook for trade means for the nation’s economy.

For now, the emphasis for forex traders remains focused on the rolling news surrounding US trade deals and their impact on trading pairs. For USD/EUR, a deal between the two partners appears close, but it’s far from the end of trading volatility as that all-important August 1 deadline approaches.

Source: fxempire

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Manuel

Commodity

Economic

Oil prices eased on Friday and settled at a three-week low as traders worried about negative economic news from the U.S. and China and signs of growing supply.

Losses were limited by optimism U.S. trade deals could boost global economic growth and oil demand in the future.Brent crude futures fell 74 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $68.44, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 87 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $65.16.Those were the lowest settlement levels for Brent since July 4 and WTI since June 30.

For the week, Brent was down about 1% with WTI down about 3%.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday in Scotland. European Union officials and diplomats said they expected to reach a framework trade deal this weekend.

The euro zone economy has remained resilient to the pervasive uncertainty caused by a global trade war, a slew of data showed on Friday, even as European Central Bank policymakers appeared to temper market bets on no more rate cuts.

In the U.S., new orders for U.S.-manufactured capital goods unexpectedly fell in June while shipments of those products increased moderately, suggesting business spending on equipment slowed considerably in the second quarter.Trump said he had a good meeting with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and got the impression that the head of the U.S. central bank might be ready to lower interest rates.

Lower interest rates reduce consumer borrowing costs and can boost economic growth and demand for oil.

In China, the world's second-biggest economy, fiscal revenue dipped 0.3% in the first six months from a year earlier, the finance ministry said, maintaining the rate of decline seen between January and May.

GROWING SUPPLIES?

The U.S. is preparing to allow partners of Venezuela's state-run PDVSA (PDVSA.UL), starting with U.S. oil major Chevron (CVX.N), to operate with limitations in the sanctioned nation, sources said on Thursday.

That could boost Venezuelan oil exports by a little more than 200,000 barrels per day (bpd), news U.S. refiners would welcome, as it would ease tightness in the heavier crude market, ING analysts wrote.

Iran said it would continue nuclear talks with European powers after "serious, frank, and detailed" conversations on Friday, the first such face-to-face meeting since Israel and the U.S. bombed Iran last month.

Venezuela and Iran are members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Any deal that could increase the amount of oil either sanctioned country could export would boost the amount of crude available to global markets.

OPEC said the joint ministerial monitoring committee (JMMC) scheduled to convene on Monday does not hold decision-making authority over production levels.

Four OPEC+ delegates said an OPEC+ panel is to raise oil output when it meets, noting the producer group is keen to recover market share while summer demand is helping to absorb the extra barrels. OPEC+ includes OPEC and allies like Russia.

In Russia, the world's No. 2 crude producer behind the U.S., daily oil exports from its western ports are set to be around 1.77 million bpd in August, down from 1.93 million bpd in July's plan, Reuters calculations based on data from two sources show.

In the U.S., energy firms this week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for the 12th time in 13 weeks, energy services firm Baker Hughes <BKR.O> said in its closely followed report on Friday.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

Fed to Hold Rates, Unlikely to Bow to Trump’s Pressure

The meets on Tuesday amid a cooling trade war and is widely expected to leave unchanged on Wednesday for the fifth time this year, even as President Trump relentlessly pressures the central bank to slash borrowing costs. But aside from the drama with the White House, the July meeting will be significant nevertheless, as a dovish tilt is possible, amid the doves within the Fed becoming more vocal. Not only that, but September is one meeting away and some kind of messaging will be necessary if a rate cut then is on the cards.

The latest dot plot and minutes of the June meeting revealed an almost 50-50 split among participants between those that prefer to lower rates sooner rather than later and those that are inclined to remain on pause for the foreseeable future. Not so long ago, there was growing talk that the Fed might surprise with a cut in July, but the subsequent data quashed the speculation.

Week Ahead – Fed Decides Ahead of NFP, Tariff Deadline as BoC and BoJ Meet Too_1

inflation measures edged up in June and there was a solid increase in . Unfortunately for the Fed, the next NFP report isn’t due until two days after it meets, while the next inflation data – the PCE price indices – will be released the following day. This makes the July gathering a tricky one for Chair Jerome Powell, who faces a daily barrage of insults by Trump.

But Powell himself had left the door open to a July cut, amid lack of clarity about the strength of the economy and the inflationary effects of Trump’s tariffs, and his instincts may be right. Underneath the hood, the June jobs report wasn’t so strong as there was a notable slowdown in private sector employment. And with the number of trade deals being agreed finally gathering pace, the risk of a sharp jump in average import duties on August 1 has come down substantially.

Thus, the Fed is on track to resume its easing cycle in September as the majority of policymakers have been predicting. Flagging the likelihood of a rate cut in September while holding them steady for now is probably the best compromise Powell can achieve at this moment in time. This would unlikely be enough to satisfy his critics, but all the indications are that Trump is not currently planning on firing Powell – whether by upping the pressure on him to resign or finding legal grounds to do so such as using the costly renovations of the Fed headquarters building to allege misconduct.

All Eyes on NFP, PCE and GDP Reports

On the data front, it’s going to be a jam-packed agenda, as apart from the NFP and PCE inflation figures, there’s also the advance GDP report, as well as a slew of other releases.

First up on Tuesday are the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index, the for July and the job openings for June. Pending home sales and the ADP employment change will follow on Wednesday, while on Thursday, Challenger Layoffs and the Chicago PMI for July will be the other second-tier releases.

All those indicators will be watched closely for wider clues on the health of the economy but are unlikely to attract as much attention as the week’s data highlights, the first of which is Wednesday’s advance reading for the second quarter.

The jump in imports in the first quarter before higher tariffs kicked in was a big drag on GDP, which contracted by 0.5%. It’s expected to have rebounded by 2.5% in the June quarter as most tariffs were put on pause. Still, this data will be seen as somewhat outdated as investors and policymakers are more eager to see where the economy is headed.

The Fed is worried about how much inflation will rise over the coming months while keeping one eye firmly on the labour market. The June CPI numbers already pointed to some price hikes due to higher tariffs. If Thursday’s PCE inflation readings do the same, particularly core PCE, then the Fed might even forego September, and this is why a 25-bps rate cut at that meeting is only two-thirds priced in.

Week Ahead – Fed Decides Ahead of NFP, Tariff Deadline as BoC and BoJ Meet Too_2

The Cleveland Fed’s own Nowcast model isn’t predicting any fireworks, however. The price index is estimated to have stayed unchanged at 2.7% year-on-year in June, but headline PCE is forecast to have picked up to 2.5% from 2.3%.

Potentially even more crucial will be the July payrolls numbers out on Friday. The headline print is expected at 102k, down from 147k in the prior month. The unemployment rate is projected to tick up to 4.2%, and growth in average hourly earnings to accelerate slightly to 0.3% month-on-month.

Week Ahead – Fed Decides Ahead of NFP, Tariff Deadline as BoC and BoJ Meet Too_3

Also important on Friday will be the ISM manufacturing PMI, which is expected to improve from 49.0 in June to 49.6 in July.

Any weakness in the upcoming data would likely boost rate cut bets for September but investors are increasingly sceptical about the possibility of a third reduction in 2025 so the downside risks to the US dollar are somewhat limited.

Will the BoJ Talk Up Rate Hike Expectations?

If the greenback does come under greater selling pressure, it’s more likely to be down to the strength of other currencies, such as the yen, which received a leg up from the US-Japan trade agreement.

Whilst there’s a sizable risk that Japan’s economy will take a hit from this new deal, as it still leaves Japanese exporters worse off from where they were before the trade war, the end of the uncertainty does potentially pave the way for the Bank of Japan to restart its tightening campaign. The BoJ last hiked rates in January and following the deal, investors have ratcheted up their bets of another 25-bps increase in the policy rate by year end, helping the yen to recover from near the 150 level against the dollar.

For the July meeting, which takes place on Wednesday and Thursday, the odds of a policy change are near zero, although the Bank will publish its latest quarterly outlook report. Should policymakers revise up their forecasts for inflation and see reduced risks to growth, rate hike expectations could further intensify, boosting the yen.

Week Ahead – Fed Decides Ahead of NFP, Tariff Deadline as BoC and BoJ Meet Too_4

In terms of data, preliminary industrial output for June is out on Thursday, along with retail sales for the same month.

BoC to Stay on Hold as Canada Hopes to Avert 35% Tariffs

Before the Fed and Bank of Japan decisions, it will be the Bank of Canada’s turn on Wednesday to set rates. But the meeting could turn out to be a non-event as the BoC is not anticipated to announce any changes, keeping its overnight rate at 2.75%.

It’s been a tough few months for Canadians, least of all for BoC policymakers who’ve had to worry about both a resurgence in inflation and a recession as the country’s biggest trading partner is threatening tariffs of up to 35%. Although the steeper levy rate won’t apply to goods covered under the USMCA agreement, it could nevertheless cause significant disruption to trade between the two neighbouring countries, potentially pushing the economy into a recession.

Week Ahead – Fed Decides Ahead of NFP, Tariff Deadline as BoC and BoJ Meet Too_5

According to the ’s latest outlook survey, businesses are a little less pessimistic than in the prior quarter, as the recent trade deals have boosted hopes that Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney will be able to reach some kind of an agreement before August 1.

But with more than 70% of Canada’s exports destined for the United States, it’s probably too soon to rule out a recession. (Thursday’s monthly GDP reading will provide an update for May). At the same time, Canada’s retaliatory tariffs of 25% on certain US goods is pushing up prices domestically. Even before the onset of the trade war, underlying inflation in Canada began to head higher and this limits the scope for rate cuts should the economic picture deteriorate further.

For now, and in the absence of a trade deal announcement over the next few days, the BoC will likely maintain the same tone as in the June meeting, with the risks to the Canadian dollar being tilted sightly to the downside.

Eurozone Data May Fail to Excite

It’s not just Canada that’s in a rush to reach a trade agreement with the US as the European Union has also not struck a deal yet, although reports suggest that negotiators are closing in on one. The European Central Bank has already done its bit to safeguard the Eurozone economy from the trade war risks and decided to keep rates on hold in July for the first time in eight meetings, having halved the deposit rate to 2.0%.

Policymakers likely want to retain some firepower in case trade tensions with America escalate again as time is running out before the August 1 deadline. But assuming that a deal is agreed, it could be several months before the ECB cuts again, if at all. Hence, next week’s data may not spur much reaction in the euro.

The preliminary GDP estimates for the second quarter are due on Wednesday, followed by flash CPI numbers for July on Friday.

Week Ahead – Fed Decides Ahead of NFP, Tariff Deadline as BoC and BoJ Meet Too_6

Will Australian CPI Give RBA the Green Nod

In Australia, quarterly CPI data could be crucial for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next policy decision, something that Governor Michelle Bullock had referenced when justifying the surprise hold in July.

Australia’s statistics office won’t begin publishing a complete monthly CPI dataset until November. Until then, the RBA is putting more weight on the quarterly release than the experimental monthly reads.

The second quarter figures are due on Wednesday when the RBA will be hoping to see a further moderation in the core CPI measures. As for headline CPI, it dipped to 2.1% in May, but the RBA wants to see a similar decline in the quarterly print before trimming rates again.

Week Ahead – Fed Decides Ahead of NFP, Tariff Deadline as BoC and BoJ Meet Too_7

A rate cut at the RBA’s next meeting in August is not fully priced in so the Australian dollar could extend its recent gains if the CPI figures are stronger than expected, further denting easing bets. Meanwhile, traders will also be watching Chinese manufacturing PMI due on Thursday.