US Dollar Forecast: DXY Struggles Near 99.10 as Tariff Risks and Jobs Data Pressure Market

Forex

Summary:

The U.S. Dollar Index stabilizes near 99.10 but faces pressure from tariff risks, euro strength, and weakening labor data, with its outlook remaining vulnerable without strong economic catalysts.

Dollar Index Stabilizes Near Key Technical Pivot as Trade and Labor Concerns Weigh

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is stabilizing just above a crucial short-term pivot at 99.100, which has emerged as a decisive inflection point for near-term direction. Price action on Tuesday shows modest gains, with the index up 0.25% to 99.28 after Monday’s 0.58% drop.

However, downside pressure remains evident, as the DXY teeters on the edge of a 7.7% two-month decline — its steepest since 2002 — reflecting broader macroeconomic skepticism around U.S. policy direction and capital outflows.

Euro Strength Weighs on Dollar Amid German Spending Plans

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Struggles Near 99.10 as Tariff Risks and Jobs Data Pressure Market_1

Daily EUR/USD

Support for the euro surged in early March after Germany’s political leadership signaled a major fiscal expansion — a significant departure from its long-standing austerity stance.

This move revived optimism around eurozone growth and shifted capital away from the dollar. While the euro eased 0.38% to $1.1379 on Tuesday, it remains on course for its strongest monthly performance in over two years.

Safe-Haven Demand and Tariff Volatility

The dollar has also contended with a stronger yen and Swiss franc as investors rotated into safer currencies in response to geopolitical stress, particularly renewed U.S.-China tariff tensions. Although the Trump administration hinted at easing automotive tariffs, conflicting rhetoric has kept risk sentiment unstable.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s remarks that de-escalation depends on China underscore the uncertainty clouding progress. Analysts continue to flag that global bond and equity outflows from the U.S. indicate a “buyers’ strike” on dollar-denominated assets, despite a modest recovery in prices.

Labor Market Softening Despite Lower Layoffs

Labor data released Tuesday revealed a mixed picture. Job openings fell by 288,000 to 7.192 million in March, signaling growing employer caution.

Meanwhile, layoffs dropped to 1.558 million, indicating some underlying labor market stability. Still, hiring increased only marginally, and with federal workforce cuts looming and tariffs expected to disrupt supply chains, forward-looking labor strength remains uncertain.

Outlook: Dollar Index at Risk Without Clear Catalysts

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Struggles Near 99.10 as Tariff Risks and Jobs Data Pressure Market_2

Daily US Dollar Index (DXY)

The DXY’s short-term fate hinges on holding the 99.100 pivot. A break below this level could expose the index to the long-term support at 97.921. Resistance lies at 99.939 and 100.276; a confirmed breakout above these levels could open the path to 101.302.

However, lacking a bullish catalyst — such as stronger U.S. data or credible tariff resolution — the dollar remains vulnerable to further selling pressure, especially as traders weigh eurozone growth potential and seek safe-haven alternatives.

Source: fxempire

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Diana Wallace

Economic

NEW YORK (AP) — Amazon is not planning to list added tariff costs next to product prices on its site — despite speculation spanning from a report that claimed the e-commerce giant would soon show new import charges, as well as fiery comments from President Donald Trump's White House denouncing such a move.

The Trump administration's reaction appeared to be based on a misinterpretation of internal plans being considered by Amazon, rather than a final decision made by the company.

Amazon's Haul service — a recently launched, low-cost storefront — “considered the idea” of listing import charges on certain products, company spokesperson Tim Doyle said in a statement sent to The Associated Press. But this "was never approved and is not going to happen.”

Amazon launched Haul last year to sell electronics, apparel and other products priced under $20, aimed at competing against the success of China-founded rivals like Temu and Shein.

Earlier Tuesday, Punchbowl News had reported that Amazon planned to start showing how much of each product's cost derived from tariffs “right next to” its total listed price, citing an anonymous source familiar with the matter. While Amazon later confirmed that it would not be listing such added costs, the Trump administration was quick to criticize news of the move early Tuesday.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt accused Amazon of taking a "hostile and political act” — and further attacked the company by suggesting it was un-American.

“Amazon has partnered with a Chinese propaganda arm,” Leavitt said at a Tuesday briefing with reporters.

It was unclear if the administration had been in contact with Amazon about the company's response to tariffs — or potential ideas around communicating price hikes with shoppers. At Tuesday's briefing, Leavitt said she had “just got off the phone with the president about Amazon's announcement."

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos was one of a handful of powerful, ultra-wealthy tech titans who attended Trump's inauguration in January — filling some of the most exclusive seats right behind the president. Whether his relationship with the president has strained since has yet to be seen, and Leavitt declined to comment when asked by reporters Tuesday.

The tariffs imposed by Trump — and responding retaliation from targeted countries, notably China — threaten to increase prices for both consumers and businesses. Economists warned that these import taxes will hike prices for a range of goods consumers buy each day — and lead to worse inflationary pressure.

Source: Yahoo Finance

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Commodity

Gold prices are trading just off session lows after the latest data showed U.S. consumer sentiment declining further than expected this month.

The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 86 in April, below economists’ consensus forecast for a 87.5 reading and also below the upwardly revised 93.9 print in March, the Conference Board said on Tuesday.

The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, decreased by 0.9 points to 133.5, while the Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, dropped 12.5 points to 54.4, the lowest level since October 2011 and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.

Gold prices fell to session lows following the 10 am EST consumer sentiment data release, with spot gold last trading at $3,309.39 per ounce at the time of writing for a loss of 1.03% on the session.

Spot gold tests $3,300/oz support as U.S. Consumer Confidence falls to 86 in April _1

“Consumer confidence declined for a fifth consecutive month in April, falling to levels not seen since the onset of the COVID pandemic,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decline was largely driven by consumers’ expectations. The three expectation components—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future.”

“Notably, the share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months (32.1%) was nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession,” Guichard added. “In addition, expectations about future income prospects turned clearly negative for the first time in five years, suggesting that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations. However, consumers’ views of the present have held up, containing the overall decline in the Index.”

April’s decline in confidence was seen across all age groups and most income groups. “The decline was sharpest among consumers between 35 and 55 years old, and consumers in households earning more than $125,000 a year,” the report said. “The decline in confidence was shared across all political affiliations.”

“High financial market volatility in April pushed consumers’ views about the stock market deeper into negative territory, with 48.5% expecting stock prices to decline over the next 12 months (the highest share since October 2011),” Guichard added. “Meanwhile, average 12-month inflation expectations reached 7% in April—the highest since November 2022, when the US was experiencing extremely high inflation.”

According to the write-in responses on what topics are affecting views of the economy, tariffs are now on top of consumers’ minds, with mentions of tariffs reaching an all-time high.

“Consumers explicitly mentioned concerns about tariffs increasing prices and having negative impacts on the economy,” the report noted. “Inflation and high prices remained important for consumers’ views about the economy: while the majority complained about the high cost of living, there were also some references to declines in the prices of gas and some food items. There were also numerous mentions of stock prices and uncertainty.”

The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months rose to a two-year high, and the share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next 12 months continued to increase while the share of consumers expecting lower interest rates dropped further.

Source: kitco

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Adam

Forex

The Japanese yen has steadied on Tuesday after surging 1.1% against the US dollar a day earlier. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 142.19, up 0.13% on the day.

Red-hot yen is up 10% in 2025

The yen is red-hot and shows no signs of slowing down against the struggling US dollar. The Japanese currency has soared as much as 6.7% in April and has climbed a massive 10% since the start of the year. In this turbulent economic environment, jittery investors have flocked to safe havens such as the yen, as President Trump's erratic trade policy has triggered a "sell America" wave in the financial markets.

Japan is hoping to mitigate the impact of US tariffs, which pose a threat to the export-reliant country. The finance ministers of the US and Japan met on Thursday and Japan will be trying to use its leverage as the fourth-largest US trading partner to carve out some tariff exemptions.

The Bank of Japan is concerned about Trump's tariff policy and has adopted a wait-and-see attitude. BoJ officials have signaled that the central bank remains on track to hike interest rates but is widely expected to hold rates at Thursday's meeting.

US JOLTS Job Openings misses expectationsIn

the US, the focus will be on job numbers in the second half of the week. JOLTS Job Openings slipped to 7.19 million, down from 7.48 million and below the market estimate of 7.48 million.

All eyes are on Friday's nonfarm payrolls, which surprised on the upside last month with a gain of 228 thousand, blowing past the forecast of 140 thousand. The markets are braced for a weak nonfarm payrolls release of 135 thousand.

USD/JPY Technical

Japanese yen surges due to market jitters_1

USDJPY Chart 1-Day, April 29, 2025

Source: marketpulse

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Catherine Richards

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has blasted President Putin's unilaterally declared three-day ceasefire set for May 8-10, which correspondents with Russia's Victory Day celebrations, as an "attempt at manipulation."

"Now there's a new attempt at manipulation: for some reason, everyone has to wait until May 8," Zelensky said in his daily address Monday evening. This will mark the 80th anniversary for Moscow's World War 2 commemorations, a major national civic holiday.

Ukraine has instead offered an immediate truce with Russia for "at least 30 days." Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha previously questioned, "If Russia truly wants peace, it must cease fire immediately. Why wait until May 8?"

Moscow has rejected any premature longer term truce ahead of lasting settlement and territorial concessions from the Ukrainian side, fearing that it would just be used to regroup and rearm along the front lines.

Russia has further rejected this new call for a 30-day truce instead of the three day ceasefire. "It's difficult to agree to such a long-term truce without answers to the questions raised by Putin," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

"We haven't heard the Kyiv regime's reaction, and it's unclear whether they plan to join the truce," Peskov said. "Nevertheless, we hope the Russian president's peace initiative will be appreciated," he added. "The first step is to start the negotiation process — everything else is secondary."

Kiev did appear to observe the prior Easter truce, though each side accused the other of some violations. But it set a precedent which Moscow is hoping to follow on with in pushing the V-Day ceasefire; however, skeptics have said this is really to ensure no disruptions happen at national public commemoration events (such as inbound drones in the Moscow region).

Trump admin officials have called this week "critical" for determining whether lasting peace in Ukraine can be forged.

Rubio said that the coming week will be “very critical” for the White House as it makes a “determination about whether this is an endeavor that we want to continue to be involved in.”

“There are reasons to be optimistic, but there are reasons to be realistic,” Rubio said, adding: “We're close, but we're not close enough.”

“Throughout this process, it's about determining, do both sides really want peace and how close are they or how far apart they are after 90 days of effort here ... that's what we're trying to determine this week,” Rubio said of negotiations.

But it's unclear what this ultimatum of sorts (given to both sides?) really means. Will the US stop arming Ukraine if no peace deal is reached? Will more sanctions simply be piled onto Moscow?

Trump is increasingly frustrated with leaders of both Russia and Ukraine. President Trump has warned the Russians that his patience will soon run thin, amid accusations from hawks that Moscow is simply stalling for the sake of battlefield gains. Putin this month declared the full liberation of Kursk region, leaving Zelensky with no cards to play at all. Trump himself has acknowledged that Zelensky has no real leverage at this point.

Source: Zero Hedge

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Jason

Economic

Commodity

The price of crude oil was down by about 3% so far this week, having encountered sellers’ resistance at $63 for WTI. A week earlier, the resistance was at $64/bbl.

In early April, oil collapsed due to fears of a global slowdown due to tariffs (less demand) and OPEC+’s intention to raise production (more supply). However, over the last three weeks, we have seen a smooth recovery trend, which has allowed about half of the initial decline to be recovered.

Last week’s US data was also on the sellers’ side. Commercial inventories have risen in 11 of the last 13 weeks, adding a cumulative 31.4 million barrels. Strategic stocks also rose over that time, albeit by a rather modest 2.7 million barrels.

Interestingly, drilling activity has picked up, as the number of oil rigs has recovered to 483 from 480 a fortnight ago in the last couple of weeks.

That said, so far, production has stagnated at 13.5 million bpd. These swings are near record highs, but there has been no upward movement.

While the data changes are not overly dramatic, there are still more factors in favour of a lower oil price as the initial rebound fades.

In our view, the status quo is working against oil now, as the already imposed tariffs and the degree of uncertainty are eating away at confidence and therefore putting pressure on futures.

The longer-term technical picture shows the recovery momentum depleting on the approach to the former strong support line, which promises to make it an equally strong resistance. This picture suggests that without a breakthrough in tariff negotiations, there is a greater chance that oil will go down further, and the latest recovery will only whet the bears’ appetite.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Economic

The White House on Tuesday slammed Amazonfor reportedly planning to display the cost of President Donald Trump’s tariffs next to the total price of products on its site.

“This is a hostile and political act by Amazon,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters.

“Why didn’t Amazon do this when the Biden administration hiked inflation to the highest level in 40 years?” Leavitt asked.

She added, “This is another reason why Americans should buy American.”

Shares of the online retail giant founded by Jeff Bezos dropped more than 2% in premarket trading immediately following the remarks.

An Amazon spokesperson told CNBC later Tuesday morning that the company was only ever considering listing tariff charges on some products for Amazon Haul, its budget-focused shopping section.

“The team that runs our ultra low cost Amazon Haul store has considered listing import charges on certain products,” the spokesperson said. “This was never a consideration for the main Amazon site and nothing has been implemented on any Amazon properties.”

In a follow-up statement, the spokesperson clarified that the plan to show tariff surcharges was “never approved” and is “not going to happen.”

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in an X post called Amazon’s statement a “good move.”

The Trump administration’s aggressive swipe came in response to Punchbowl News’ report earlier Tuesday that Amazon will soon show consumers how much of an item’s cost comes from tariffs.

The amount added as a result of tariffs will be displayed right next to each product’s total listed price, a person familiar with the plan told the news outlet.

A reporter in Tuesday’s press briefing asked Leavitt and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent if they agreed that Amazon’s move is a “crystal-clear demonstration that it’s the American consumer, and not China, who is going to have to pay for these policies.”

Leavitt opted to respond because, she said, she “just got off the phone with the president about Amazon’s announcement.”

Leavitt also said the company’s decision was “not a surprise,” saying Reuters “recently” wrote that Amazon has “partnered with a Chinese propaganda arm.”

She held up a print-out of a Reuters report from December 2021 that Amazon complied with an edict from Beijing’s government that it remove customer reviews and ratings from a book of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s speeches and writings.

Amazon is not the first retailer to put a spotlight on how new tariffs are changing its prices.

China-based fast fashion giants Shein and Temu have both added massive surcharges in recent days. Temu now includes a line on its checkout tally showing an “import charge” that adds around 145% for each item.

Leavitt’s response could signal an emerging rift between Trump and Bezos, who has joined other billionaires and tech leaders in cozying up to the Republican president since he won the 2024 election.

After frequently catching Trump’s ire in years past, Bezos in December expressed optimism about the Republican’s second term, saying he believes Trump has grown calmer and more confident.

The same month, Amazon donated $1 million to Trump’s inaugural fund. Bezos later attended Trump’s inauguration.

Bezos drew further accusations of seeking to court Trump when he forced the Washington Post, which he owns, to restrict its opinion section to publishing only pieces in defense of “personal liberties and free markets.”

But Amazon’s business has come under strain in the face of Trump’s sweeping tariffs plans — especially his 145% duty on China, where up to 70% of Amazon goods are sourced, according to Wedbush Securities.

As Amazon merchants have started hiking prices on a wide array of goods in response to the tariffs, the company has started emailing the sellers to gauge the impact of Trump’s agenda.

Leavitt, after delivering her statement on Amazon, was asked if Bezos is “still a Trump supporter.”

“Look, I will not speak to the president’s relationships with Jeff Bezos, but I will tell you that this is certainly a hostile and political action by Amazon,” she said.