Unresolved Tariff Talks Highlight Diverging Economic Strategies Between the United States and Its Partners

Economic

Summary:

Negotiations between the United Kingdom, Singapore, and the United States on tariff issues have yet to yield agreements, while talks with Japan are progressing more positively, raising hopes for a potential trade deal....

Background of Ongoing Tariff Negotiations

Recent trade discussions involving the United Kingdom, Singapore, and Japan with the United States have underlined both opportunities and persistent barriers. Despite several rounds of dialogue, no comprehensive agreement has been finalized between the United States and either the United Kingdom or Singapore. These talks occur against the backdrop of the Trump administration’s decision to temporarily suspend retaliatory tariffs, setting a 90-day window to encourage negotiation, excluding China. The temporary 10% tariff has pressured countries to engage in expedited discussions to avoid harsher penalties once the grace period ends.

United Kingdom–United States Talks: Aspirations and Constraints

On April 25, British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves met with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington to address bilateral economic relations. While Reeves characterized the atmosphere as “optimistic and positive,” she firmly stated that the United Kingdom would not hastily agree to a trade deal. Discussions primarily focused on tariff barriers, particularly concerning automotive imports and the U.S. 25% tariff on steel and aluminum products from the UK. Although the U.S. pushed for a reduction in UK import duties on American cars, London prioritized exemptions for their own industrial sectors.

Reeves emphasized that any resulting agreement must protect national interests and uphold agricultural standards, a point of friction since the UK's departure from the European Union. Her stance highlights a cautious approach, favoring sustainable long-term benefits over short-term concessions. The correlation observed here suggests that heightened political concern over domestic standards, such as agriculture, tends to slow the pace of international agreement formation rather than accelerating it.

Lingering Regulatory Barriers and Digital Trade Discussions

Further complicating the negotiations are unresolved issues regarding product standards, agricultural market access, and regulations surrounding digital services. While American representatives, led by Bessent, described the talks as "constructive and promising," significant gaps persist. The observable pattern indicates that sectors with high regulatory sensitivity, like agriculture and digital trade, exhibit slower negotiation progress compared to lower-regulation areas. However, this parallel trend does not directly imply causation without considering external political pressures.

Similar outcomes were seen in discussions between Singapore and the United States. Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Trade and Industry Gan Kim Yong noted after an online meeting with U.S. Trade Secretary Howard Lutnick that progress had been made in terms of dialogue, but the critical tariff reduction from the 10% interim rate remained unresolved. Both parties agreed to continue exploring practical solutions to strengthen economic relations, with Singapore extending an invitation for further high-level visits.

The case of Singapore shows a clear parallel trend: increased dialogue correlates with improved bilateral understanding, yet it does not necessarily guarantee immediate tariff concessions. The U.S.'s reluctance to adjust its interim tariffs implies a strategic emphasis on maintaining negotiation leverage.

In contrast to the stalled talks with the United Kingdom and Singapore, negotiations between the United States and Japan appear to be advancing more smoothly. President Donald Trump expressed optimism, suggesting that the two countries are "very close" to reaching a new trade agreement. Japanese chief negotiator Ryosei Akazawa is scheduled to visit the United States starting April 30 for the second round of discussions, aiming to address tariffs on automobiles and steel. Despite Japan’s demands, the U.S. has firmly stated that any adjustments will not be exclusive, preserving a broader strategic bargaining position.

The momentum between Japan and the United States reflects a situation where sustained high-level engagement and mutual economic interdependence can accelerate the negotiation process. Although both sides have entrenched interests, the general trend shows that frequent, face-to-face diplomacy correlates with tangible negotiation progress, even though causality cannot be confirmed without deeper insight into internal decision-making processes.

The current state of tariff negotiations between the United States and its trading partners illustrates varied dynamics shaped by sectoral priorities, political sensitivities, and strategic positioning. Talks with the United Kingdom and Singapore remain constructive but face significant hurdles, particularly in sectors deeply tied to domestic political concerns. Conversely, progress with Japan demonstrates that persistent engagement and favorable political climates can foster faster outcomes. These developments will be critical to monitor, as they reveal underlying shifts in global trade relationships amid a volatile economic landscape.

Source: The Guardian

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Michelle Reid

Forex

Economic

The USDJPY pair is undergoing a bullish correction amid easing trade tensions. Market participants are awaiting the outcome of the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Thursday.

The USDJPY pair climbed to the 144.00 area amid easing trade tensions and ongoing negotiations.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

● Market focus: ongoing tariff negotiations between the US and Japan

● Current trend: correcting upwards

● USDJPY forecast for 28 April 2025: 144.00 and 143.00

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate climbed into the 144 yen per dollar area on Monday, driven by easing global trade tensions. Japan's chief trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, is expected to visit Washington this week for a second round of bilateral talks.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is scheduled to hold its policy meeting this Thursday. The regulator is widely expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, as policymakers continue to assess the potential impact of newly imposed US tariffs on Japan’s export-oriented economy.

USDJPY technical analysis

The USDJPY pair continues to trade within a broader downtrend; however, the chart currently shows a bullish correction. The Alligator indicator has turned upwards, confirming the current upward price momentum. The key resistance level is located at the 144.00 mark.

Today’s USDJPY forecast suggests that the pair could dip further to the 140.00 level if bears keep the price below 144.00. Conversely, the upward correction could continue if bulls push the price above 144.00.

USDJPY Rises Above 143.00; Will Growth Continue?_1

Source: RoboForex

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Gerik

Economic

French companies delay investments and hiring amid global trade shocks

As global trade risks escalate, nearly all new investments in French companies are under review, according to Le Figaro. Business leaders in France’s CAC40 index describe the current climate as "too unstable, too unpredictable," forcing them to postpone hiring — particularly for new graduates — and freeze plans for research, development, and equipment expansion.

Major firms such as Forvia are cutting over €100 million in 2025 investments compared to 2024, while Rémy Martin has placed hundreds of employees on rotating furloughs due to temporary Chinese tariffs on EU cognac exports. This marks the first wave of such drastic measures, with more expected if the trade situation worsens.

Even mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are at a standstill. Hopes that President Trump’s pro-business stance would spark an M&A boom have vanished. Three major acquisition deals worth between €5-10 billion each were canceled within two weeks after Trump announced retaliatory tariffs on April 2. Volatility has made it nearly impossible to price large stock-based transactions properly, according to Citigroup and Bank of America executives.

Living with daily uncertainty: the "new normal"

According to France Industrie president Alexandre Saubot, "waiting" now defines business strategy at all levels. No major medium-term decisions are expected until after the 90-day tariff negotiation window expires. Business leaders now accept daily volatility and surprise announcements from President Trump as a reality they must adapt to calmly.

There are faint glimmers of optimism: some executives speculate that global tariffs could eventually stabilize at around 10%, with tariffs on Chinese goods falling to 30%-40%. However, the consensus remains that tariff levels will not revert to pre-2024 norms — a 10% baseline seems inevitable to fund U.S. government spending and tax cuts.

The U.S. market remains resilient despite short-term challenges

Despite temporary unattractiveness due to slower growth and rising inflation, many French companies remain committed to the U.S. market. Labor shortages (with U.S. unemployment around 4%) and higher labor costs — reportedly five times more expensive than in Mexico — deter firms from relocating manufacturing to the U.S., but not from investing there.

Executives at companies across sectors affirm that America’s internal economic dynamism and strong fundamentals continue to justify long-term investment. Although some companies are revisiting short-term expansion plans, they expect to proceed once the political and economic landscape stabilizes.

"Today and tomorrow, the U.S. remains a key market," one major industrial CEO emphasized. "We have no plans to halt new production lines. We owe that to our employees there."

Internal solidarity and resilience as top priorities

In the face of trade chaos, French multinationals are focusing on internal solidarity. CEOs are encouraging senior managers to stay close to teams, foster morale, and highlight the organization's core strengths. Maintaining calm, neutrality, and unity is seen as critical for surviving — and thriving — amid global disruption.

"We must stay united and not let politics invade our companies," one senior executive concluded. "Staying calm and neutral is more important now than ever."

This "new normal" of persistent global uncertainty demands strategic patience, resilience, and leadership that can steer companies through an era of prolonged instability.

Source: Le Figaro

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Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

China–U.S. Trade War

Trade war risks morphing into a currency war

On April 8, China surprised markets by lowering its yuan reference rate after months of keeping it steady, aiming to cushion the impact of escalating U.S. tariffs. The yuan immediately fell to a 19-month low, sparking widespread concerns that the global trade conflict could mutate into a full-scale currency war.

Dr. Hồ Quốc Tuấn from the University of Bristol warned that if countries start following China's devaluation to maintain competitiveness, they risk being labeled currency manipulators by the U.S., triggering foreign capital flight and greater instability. Given the yuan’s critical role as a regional anchor, even small shifts can produce outsized ripple effects across global markets.

As the U.S.–China tariff battle intensifies, investor fears of global supply chain disruptions, slowing trade, and weaker corporate profits are translating into heightened financial market volatility. Companies are delaying investments, consumers are growing cautious, and currencies are swinging wildly.

Adding to worries, Santiago Fernández de Lis of BBVA noted that the unusual combination of rising U.S. bond yields and a weakening dollar signals eroding faith in the U.S.'s role as the world's safe haven. For decades, the stability of U.S. assets — particularly $27 trillion in government bonds — underpinned the global financial system. But the Trump administration's tariff escalations and perceived fiscal recklessness are now shaking that foundation.

Currency devaluation: a risky temptation

Historically, nations engaged in currency wars have sought to devalue their currencies to boost exports at the expense of trading partners. Although many Asian economies today are better prepared — with stronger foreign exchange reserves, tighter financial supervision, and deeper local capital markets — the dangers remain real.

The U.S. dollar has depreciated over 9% against a basket of major currencies since its January peak, including a sharp 2% drop in April alone, raising concerns that global investors might be quietly pulling out of U.S. assets not due to low returns but due to rising systemic risks.

The Economist warns that if U.S. political dysfunction continues — ignoring ballooning public debt and resorting to erratic policy moves — a global financial earthquake could follow. Rumors already suggest that large foreign investment funds are discreetly selling off U.S. dollar holdings.

Vietnam urged to avoid the currency war trap

Despite the heightened global risk environment, experts believe Vietnam should refrain from joining a competitive devaluation race. According to Phạm Lưu Hưng, Chief Economist at SSI Securities, chasing short-term export advantages through devaluation could backfire, offering minimal real benefits while risking financial instability.

Instead, Vietnam is advised to focus on sustainable, internally driven growth. Domestic consumption and public investment are now the primary engines powering the country's economy, providing resilience even amid external shocks.

"We should not be lured into currency devaluation just to boost exports slightly," Hưng emphasized. "The meaningful path forward is to strengthen Vietnam’s economic fundamentals and foster durable growth."

As currency markets grow increasingly volatile, nations face difficult choices. While some may resort to competitive devaluations to shield their economies, Vietnam's current strategy of prioritizing internal demand and maintaining macroeconomic stability appears more prudent. The emerging global financial turbulence highlights not only the dangers of unchecked trade and currency wars but also the urgent need for countries like Vietnam to remain focused, cautious, and forward-looking.

Source: The Economist

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Patricia Franklin

Economic

Central Bank

The European Central Bank's next policy meeting will be complex, as policymakers need to balance the uncertainty around inflation risks from U.S. tariffs, Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot said in an interview with Dutch financial daily FD.

"In the short term, it's 100% clear that the demand shock will dominate, so inflation will go down," Knot said, speaking about the effects of tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.

"But the ECB looks at inflation risks in the middle to long term. In the longer term inflation risks are definitely two-sided. I think the June meeting will be really complex."

ECB policymakers are becoming increasingly confident about cutting interest rates in June as inflation continues its march lower, but there is little to no appetite for a big move, six sources told Reuters last week.

Many governors were now seeing growing chances of an eighth quarter-point cut at the June 4 meeting, when the ECB will update its own economic forecasts, they said. The ECB trimmed its benchmark rate to 2.25% earlier this month.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

China–U.S. Trade War

Factories in China grind to a halt as U.S. orders collapse

The escalating tariff war initiated by the U.S., with duties on Chinese goods now exceeding 100%, is beginning to seriously paralyze manufacturing hubs across China. In export-heavy cities like Yiwu and Dongguan, factories are partially shutting down operations and placing workers on unpaid leave, while desperately hoping for a reduction in tariffs to revive orders.

According to Cameron Johnson of Tidalwave Solutions, industries producing low-cost consumer goods like toys, sporting equipment, and general merchandise for dollar stores have been the hardest hit. With U.S. imports from China falling drastically, Goldman Sachs estimates that up to 20 million Chinese workers, who are directly or indirectly tied to U.S. exports, could be at risk.

Small manufacturers, particularly those with only a few million dollars in working capital, now face an acute survival crisis. Ash Monga of Imex Sourcing Services described this tariff impact as “far worse than the COVID-19 disruption,” warning that a wave of bankruptcies is imminent if the current trade standoff persists.

Chinese exporters pivot to livestreaming and new sales strategies

Faced with plummeting export demand, Chinese companies are pivoting aggressively to the domestic market through livestream e-commerce platforms. For instance, Woodswool, a sportswear manufacturer based near Shanghai, quickly launched a livestream channel via Baidu’s AI-driven virtual hosts, securing new domestic sales despite losing all its U.S. business.

Baidu, JD.com, and Meituan are rolling out major support packages to help exporters transition to domestic sales. Baidu’s offer of free AI "virtual characters" for livestreaming and JD.com’s 200 billion yuan ($27 billion) purchasing program demonstrate the scale of efforts. Yet these initiatives still only cover a fraction of the $524 billion worth of goods China exported to the U.S. last year.

Michael Hart from the American Chamber of Commerce in China warned that many Chinese exporters find it difficult to repurpose products originally designed for American suburban consumers to fit urban Chinese lifestyles, creating another barrier to domestic market adaptation.

Expanding beyond U.S. markets: A new lifeline

Facing stricter U.S. customs controls against rerouting through third countries, Chinese companies are increasingly shifting production investments to India and Southeast Asia, and redirecting exports to Latin America and parts of Europe.

Examples include Beijing Mingyuchu, a company specializing in bathroom products for Brazil, and Cotrie Logistics in Ghana, which facilitates Chinese exports to Africa. China's exports to Brazil have doubled between 2018 and 2024, signaling growing trade ties outside traditional Western markets.

While supply chain challenges such as currency volatility and high shipping costs persist, Chinese exporters like Liu Xu of Mingyuchu see these emerging markets as critical buffers against U.S.-driven disruptions.

The sudden evaporation of American orders marks the beginning of a deeper restructuring for Chinese exporters. Layoffs, factory slowdowns, and the race to capture new markets through innovative sales channels like livestreaming highlight a volatile transition phase. Whether these companies can successfully reinvent themselves amid escalating global trade tensions remains an open question — but one thing is clear: the era of heavy reliance on the U.S. market is rapidly coming to an end for many Chinese manufacturers.

Source: CNBC

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Gerik

Political

Economic

Europe strikes hard against tech giants to assert digital sovereignty

The European Commission (EC) has delivered a strong signal to the world’s technology giants by announcing record-breaking fines against Apple and Meta for violating the newly enforced Digital Markets Act (DMA). This historic move showcases Europe’s determination to ensure fair competition and protect consumer rights in the digital landscape.

According to findings by the EC, Apple faces a proposed fine of up to 500 million euros for leveraging its dominant App Store position to restrict developers from informing users about alternative purchasing options outside its ecosystem. Such practices contravene the DMA’s explicit requirements aimed at preserving consumer choice and market fairness.

Similarly, Meta could be fined around 200 million euros over its controversial “pay or consent” model implemented on Facebook and Instagram since November 2023. This model allegedly coerced users into surrendering personal data for targeted advertising unless they paid a subscription fee, undermining fundamental principles of data privacy and voluntary consent embedded in the DMA.

A new chapter of regulatory enforcement in the digital economy

This marks the first time financial penalties are applied under the DMA framework, which officially took full effect in May 2024. The EC emphasized that these fines are not punitive for their own sake but are designed to enforce rigorous compliance and foster a competitive digital environment.

Both Apple and Meta have been given 60 working days to implement corrective measures. Failure to comply could expose them to supplementary fines reaching up to 5% of their daily global turnover, underscoring the EC’s serious commitment to enforcement.

A spokesperson for the EC reiterated that all companies operating within the EU, regardless of their origin, must adhere strictly to European law, dismissing any accusations of geopolitical bias.

Risk of escalating EU-U.S. trade tensions

These actions unfold against an already strained backdrop in EU-U.S. relations, particularly in the digital policy arena. Under President Donald Trump, the U.S. government has criticized European regulatory initiatives like the DMA and the Digital Services Act (DSA) as discriminatory against American tech firms.

Although the EC firmly denies any geopolitical motivations, stating that the laws apply equally to all companies, the timing and severity of these penalties could deepen existing transatlantic frictions. Washington has often viewed Europe's tech regulations as protective barriers designed to curb the influence of dominant U.S. companies.

By directly targeting major players like Apple and Meta, Europe signals that even the largest and most influential corporations are not above its laws. The decision highlights the EU’s broader ambition to shape a digital economy that prioritizes consumer rights, transparency, and fair competition—values seen as increasingly essential in an era marked by technological concentration and growing concerns over privacy.

The EC’s enforcement of the DMA with severe fines represents a watershed moment in global digital governance. Europe’s bold stance could inspire similar regulatory frameworks worldwide while simultaneously testing its delicate trade relationship with the United States. As both sides brace for potential diplomatic and economic repercussions, one thing is clear: the future of digital market regulation is set to become a central battleground in global commerce.