TSX Futures Fall After New Trump Tariffs; Fed Policy Meet in Focus

Economic

Stocks

Summary:

Futures tied to Canada's main stock index fell on Monday, mirroring Wall Street's losses after U.S. President Donald Trump reignited new tariff concerns, while investors awaited the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision this week.

June futures on the S&P/TSX index (.SXFcv1), opens new tab were down 0.4% at 6:20 a.m. ET (1020 GMT).

Trump announced on Sunday a 100% tariff on movies produced outside the U.S., saying the American film industry was dying a "very fast death" due to the incentives offered by other countries to lure filmmakers.

Shares of U.S. film and television production firms were down before the bell.

While the U.S. and China's talks provided a brief respite on Friday, after Beijing said it was considering Washington's offer to discuss Trump's 145% tariffs, the uncertainty around the outcome continues to loom over the markets.

Separately, Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Friday he will be in Washington on Tuesday for what he expects to be "difficult but constructive" talks with Trump.

Investors will also focus on the Fed's meeting, where the rates are expected to be kept steady.

Among commodities, gold prices rose more than 1% on Monday, helped by a weaker dollar.

Oil prices dropped more than 2% after OPEC+ decided over the weekend to further speed up oil output hikes, raising concerns about excess supply amid uncertain demand outlook.

The Toronto Stock Exchange on Friday rose to a one-month high, led by gains in industrial shares, as stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data eased investor concerns about a recession.

Source: Kitco

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Market Settles Ahead of Fed Decision

By 4:45 a.m. Eastern on Monday, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note had dipped by less than one basis point to 4.312 percent, while the two-year yield fell just over one basis point to 3.824 percent. This stability illustrates a causal relationship between central bank event risk and reduced trading activity: with the Fed meeting scheduled for Wednesday, major market participants have largely parked fresh directional bets until the policy statement and Chair Powell’s press conference are delivered.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders assign better than a 98 percent probability that the Fed will leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at this week’s meeting. While this consensus correlates with recent communications from Fed officials emphasizing the need to gauge incoming data, markets remain keenly focused on any subtle shift in language that could signal whether rate cuts are being contemplated later in the year or if the central bank intends to maintain restrictive settings through 2025.

Political Dynamics and Fed Independence

President Trump’s high-profile entreaties for rate cuts have introduced a clear cause-and-effect dynamic into financial markets. His public criticisms of Chair Jerome Powell, and earlier speculation about a potential removal, created episodes of heightened volatility in short-term Treasuries. Although the administration has since toned down its rhetoric to avoid unnerving investors, the episode underscores how political developments can directly affect bond market sentiment and amplify sensitivity to central bank communications.

This week’s economic calendar features key releases that will provide correlational context for policymakers. Services-sector PMI figures from both S&P Global and ISM will shed light on post-pandemic activity levels, while import and export data will speak to trade-related inflation pressures. Weekly initial jobless claims will offer insight into labor market resilience. Friday’s employment report, showing April nonfarm payrolls up by 177,000—well above consensus expectations—demonstrates a robust jobs environment even as inflation measures remain elevated, complicating the Fed’s decision calculus.

Yield Curve Inversion and Investor Strategy

The difference between the yields on two-year and 10-year Treasuries has persisted in inversion, a pattern historically correlated with forthcoming economic slowdowns. This inversion incentivizes investors to lock in longer-dated yields despite foregoing the typically higher compensation of short-term securities, creating a causal driver for demand in mid- and long-duration notes. Portfolio managers are therefore balancing the hunt for yield with concerns over recession risks.

With Treasury yields hovering near multi-year highs, the near-term trajectory will depend on the Fed’s post-meeting remarks. A dovish tilt could trigger a causal drop in yields as market participants price in eventual easing, whereas a reiteration of restrictive policy would likely sustain or even push yields higher. In either scenario, Treasury markets remain intricately tied to the Fed’s communications, reinforcing the central bank’s pivotal role in shaping fixed-income performance.

Source: CNBC

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Glendon

Economic

Commodity

Stocks

The stock market is stuck in a high-stakes showdown. On one side stands Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. On the other, former President Donald Trump, tariffs in hand. As Powell prepares for a key policy decision, Trump keeps hammering his message: cut rates — and fast.

Trump’s latest tariff moves have reignited fears of a trade-driven slowdown. He wants cheaper money before the economy slows further. Powell, though, is playing defense. He says the Fed needs more clarity. Inflation is still above target, and the labor market hasn’t cracked — yet.

Still, cracks may be forming. GDP shrank in Q1, and some economists say more weakness is coming. The Fed is caught in what one analyst calls a “tug-of-war” between inflation and falling growth. Rate cuts may come, but not before data forces Powell’s hand.

Futures and Sentiment Dip After Winning Streak

U.S. stocks just came off their best run in 20 years. But the rally may be losing steam. Futures tied to the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all dropped slightly to start the week. Investors appear cautious, waiting for direction from the Fed and any updates on trade.

President Trump threw cold water on recent optimism. Over the weekend, he said he has no plans to speak with China’s Xi Jinping soon. Markets, which had bet on resumed talks, slipped in response. Futures fell, oil prices dropped, and the dollar lost ground.

This pullback follows weeks of hope that a China deal could emerge. That hope drove tech and energy shares higher. But now, reality is setting in. With no trade breakthrough in sight and Trump pushing for tariffs, sentiment has turned shaky.

Stock Market Outlook Hinges on FED and Inflation

The stock market is watching the Fed closely. Powell and company are not expected to cut rates at this week’s meeting. But markets want signals. Will the Fed fight inflation — or bow to pressure from the White House?

Inflation data is mixed. The Fed’s preferred gauge shows signs of cooling, but not enough. Price growth is still above the 2% target. And with tariffs likely to raise import prices, inflation could rise again soon. That’s a problem for Powell, who doesn’t want to loosen too early.

Meanwhile, job numbers remain strong — for now. But if unemployment creeps up, that could be the Fed’s trigger. One Fed official even said rate cuts could start if joblessness jumps by just a few tenths of a percent per month. The market is betting cuts begin in June.

Global Jitters: Oil Drops, Currencies Move

Tariffs aren’t just a U.S. problem. Their effects are rippling through global markets. Oil prices tanked after OPEC+ agreed to raise output. With demand weakening thanks to trade uncertainty, crude has fallen over 20% this year.

The dollar, too, is feeling the heat. It slipped for a second day as traders bet the Fed may need to cut. Asian currencies, like Taiwan’s, surged on the move. Meanwhile, investors fear stagflation — rising prices with slowing growth — even if Powell says the 1970s aren’t coming back.

Still, the risk is real. Some economists warn that slower global demand and tariff-fueled inflation could combine to hit growth hard. If that happens, expect central banks to step in — and markets to swing wildly.

Trump’s Tariff Gamble Could Shake the Stock Market Again

Trump’s tariff strategy may backfire on Wall Street. While he claims they’re needed for leverage, businesses and investors are nervous. Many rushed to import goods ahead of deadlines, inflating short-term demand. But that sugar high is fading.

If tariffs stay or get worse, growth could slip fast. That would pressure the Fed to act. But the Fed must also protect its credibility and manage inflation expectations. That tension could lead to choppy markets and political noise.

For now, the stock market is in limbo. Hopes for trade deals are dim. The Fed is cautious. Inflation is stubborn. And Trump is on the offensive. Rate cuts may come — but only if the data demands it. Until then, expect more volatility on Wall Street.

Source: CryptoSlate

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

The Bank of England is poised to cut interest rates on Thursday amid growing concerns over the hit to UK jobs and growth from Donald Trump’s increasingly erratic global trade war.

In the Bank’s first intervention since the US president’s “liberation day” tariff policy announcement sent shock waves through the world economy, Threadneedle Street is expected to reduce its key base rate from the current level of 4.5%.

Financial markets suggest an almost 100% chance of a quarter-point reduction. However, some economists – including a former Bank deputy governor – have argued that a bigger half-point cut is needed to help businesses and households in the face of the dramatically worsening global outlook.

Economists have warned that Trump’s trade battles will lead to a significant slowdown in trade, and come with a cost for US consumers by pushing up prices and raising the chances of a recession.

Business and consumer confidence levels have fallen sharply in other countries, including in Britain, over fears that his tariff policies and unpredictable approach will torpedo economic activity around the world.

“The near-term UK growth outlook already looked challenging – recent US tariff announcements have added to the headwinds,” said Edward Allenby, a UK economist at the consultancy Oxford Economics.

“[A] May cut is a done deal, and the MPC could signal a less cautious approach [to cutting rates] ahead.”

In a crunch week as central banks on both sides of the Atlantic respond to the unfolding economic shock, the financial markets expect the US Federal Reserve to disregard fierce criticism from Trump and keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.

Last month, Trump called the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, a “major loser” whose “termination cannot come fast enough”, before rowing back on his attacks on the central bank’s independence in the face of a bond market meltdown.

While there are concerns that the president’s tariffs could stoke inflation – which could push central banks to keep rates at elevated levels – economists say the border taxes may pull down inflation in other countries.

This is because tariffs could lead to exports destined for the US market being rerouted elsewhere, leading to a glut of goods in UK and EU markets, while the hit to economic activity will also sap inflationary pressures. Already there are signs of falling trade volumes between the US and its largest partners, including figures showing a sharp decline in container shipping.

UK inflation fell by more than expected in March to 2.6%, while figures from the labour market suggest company hiring intentions are cooling as businesses face higher taxes and subdued levels of consumer confidence.

While inflation is expected to reach a fresh peak of 3.7% this summer amid a rise in the price of energy and food – almost twice the Bank’s 2% target rate – analysts said the elevated level of interest rates and fears over the hit to the economy from Trump’s tariffs warranted more action to cut borrowing costs.

Andrew Bailey, the Bank’s governor, warned at last month’s International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington that the UK economy faced a “growth shock” as a result of Trump’s policies. The IMF downgraded its 2025 growth forecast for the UK to 1.1%, from the 1.6% it had been expecting as recently as January before the tariffs were announced.

Analysts said some members of the Bank’s rate-setting monetary policy committee could push for a larger cut, including the external economist Swati Dhingra, who has long advocated for deeper reductions in borrowing costs, and possibly one or two other members.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley said a half-point cut on Thursday would be a “risk” to their expectation for consecutive quarter-point cuts to 3.25% by the end of this year.

“The intellectual reasoning underpinning a potential 50bp [basis point] cut is fairly simple: why does the UK economy, with a weak labour market, pay settlement surveys at close to target-consistent levels … and in anticipation of a possible large-scale global growth hit, need interest rates as elevated as 4.5%?

“We do strongly feel that the BoE should cut rates to closer to 3.5%, the sooner, the better.”

Source: Theguardian

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Michelle

Commodity

Goldman Sachs Ups Gold Price Forecast to $3700

Goldman Sachs has updated its gold price target to $3,700 for the end of the year, driven by increased central bank purchases and institutional inflows. Their latest forecast has caused significant attention in the market due to the robust demand dynamics playing out globally.

Goldman's updated forecast underscores a significant shift in demand dynamics, with central banks and ETFs leading the charge. The market's reaction highlights gold's continued allure as a safe-haven asset.

Goldman Sachs' commodities research division officially updated its year-end forecast for gold prices to $3,700 per ounce. Strong central bank purchases and solid institutional demand are key drivers behind this optimistic adjustment.

Increased soverign and institutional buying activity has prompted this forecast, with central banks purchasing 80 tonnes monthly on average—substantially higher than historic norms. Goldman anticipates continued demand growth.

Gold prices breaking to new highs underscores the impact of this forecast. Goldman's outlook influences commodity portfolios and investor sentiment, as global market dynamics push gold into the spotlight.

Economic uncertainties and potential recessions contribute to gold's status as a safe-haven asset, appealing to a broad spectrum of investors. The structural demand shift could sustain higher price levels.

Historical parallels with past economic crises suggest gold will benefit alongside other safe-haven assets, while Bitcoin may attract attention as digital gold. Market forecasting continues to highlight how macroeconomic risks shape asset flows.

Vince Lansancy, Market Analyst, Goldfix, states: "Goldman re-raises its price target to $3,700 with views or aspirations on $4,500... reflecting a structural realignment of demand across three axes..."

Experts anticipate sustained institutional interest, potentially altering the landscape for commodities and hedging strategies. As demand solidifies, comprehensive investment approaches become crucial in navigating these evolving conditions.

Source: CryptoSlate

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Market Performance Reflects Divergent Sentiment

On Monday, Germany’s DAX rose 0.39 percent while Italy’s FTSE MIB traded largely flat and France’s CAC 40 fell 0.55 percent. The mixed opening illustrates how localized corporate developments can drive individual indices even as broader macro factors create a more muted overall trend. With U.K. markets closed for a bank holiday, investors awaited fresh economic releases and corporate earnings, resulting in a correlation between reduced trading volumes and increased sensitivity to isolated news events.

Erste Group Bank’s shares surged around 6.5 percent after Santander announced that Austria’s lender had acquired approximately 49 percent of Santander Bank Polska and half of Santander TFI, the group’s Polish asset manager. This acquisition created a direct cause-and-effect dynamic, as investors increasingly view the deal as a catalyst for Erste’s earnings growth and regional market expansion. The transaction’s expected synergies in Poland’s banking sector have spurred buying interest, demonstrating how targeted M&A activity can ignite outsized stock moves.

Shell Shares Weaken on Possible BP Bid

Amsterdam-listed Royal Dutch Shell shares fell about 1.7 percent after Bloomberg reported that the energy giant is evaluating a potential takeover of competitor BP. Although neither Shell nor BP confirmed the report, the share decline reveals a correlational relationship between takeover speculation and market sentiment: the mere prospect of a large-scale transaction introduced uncertainty about financing and integration risks, prompting investors to trim positions.

Data released Monday showed Switzerland’s consumer prices remained flat in April compared with a year earlier, undershooting forecasts and suggesting that Swiss monetary policy may remain on hold longer. By contrast, Turkey’s monthly inflation accelerated by 3 percent in April, pushing the annual rate to 37.86 percent and underscoring the causal impact of loose fiscal and monetary settings on sustained price pressures. These contrasting outcomes highlight how domestic policy choices directly shape inflation trajectories across different economies.

Upcoming Corporate Earnings and Central Bank Decisions

Although corporate news was subdued at the start of the week, major earnings reports are slated from Novo Nordisk, BMW, Maersk and Commerzbank in the coming days. Investors will also focus on interest rate announcements from Sweden’s Riksbank, Norway’s Norges Bank and the Bank of England. Market participants will seek correlational clues from these policy meetings to gauge regional central banks’ tolerance for current inflation readings and the potential for diverging rate paths.

In the United States, stock futures edged lower after the S&P 500 notched its longest positive streak in two decades last week. Ongoing trade negotiations with key partners and the Federal Reserve’s widely anticipated decision to hold rates steady later this week continue to anchor investor attention. Meanwhile, many Asian exchanges remained closed for holidays, dampening global liquidity and reinforcing the correlational link between regional closures and subdued market activity elsewhere.

In sum, European bourses opened on a mixed footing as Erste Group’s Polish acquisition provided a clear cause for its share surge, even as broader indices reacted to inflation contrasts, M&A rumors and the prospect of imminent central bank guidance.

Source: CNBC

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

Commodity

Global shares were mixed in holiday-thinned trading Monday, while oil prices fell after the OPEC+ group of oil producing nations said it plans to boost output.

Markets were closed in Britain and much of Asia.

The future for the S&P 500 slid 0.6% while that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.5%.

Germany’s DAX gained 0.4% to 23,181.61 and the CAC 40 in Paris slipped 0.4% to 7,737.21.

U.S. benchmark crude oil fell as much as 4% early in the day. By late Monday in Asia it had shed $1.15 or 2% to $57.14 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, lost $1.14 to $60.15 per barrel.

During the weekend, the OPEC+ group of eight nations announced it will raise its output by 411,000 barrels per day as of June 1, stepping up production increases.

The group said strong fundamentals were behind the decision, though analysts also speculated that it might reflect a desire to curry favor with U.S. President Donald Trump before he makes a visit to the Middle East later this month.

Prices have fallen nearly 20% in the past three months as traders have factored in the likely impact of Trump’s trade policies on the global economy. Trump has made delivering lower gas prices one of his talking points.

“Washington wants cheap energy, and Gulf producers still lean on U.S. security guarantees; the White House bears down, they listen,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary.

“In that sense the U.S. president has become an unofficial swing vote inside OPEC+,” he said.

U.S. crude oil is down about 17% for the year. According to AAA, gasoline is selling for an average of about $3.17 per gallon, down from $3.66 per gallon a year ago.

But prices are falling to a point where many producers can no longer turn a profit.

Most markets in Asia were closed. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 1% to 8,157.80 while Taiwan’s Taiex declined 1.2%.

The U.S. dollar slipped to 144.15 Japanese yen from 144.71 yen.

The euro climbed to $1.1329 from 1.1306.

On Friday, Wall Street extended its gains to a ninth straight day, the market’s longest winning streak since 2004. It has reclaiming much of the ground it lost after President Donald Trump escalated his trade war in early April.

The rally was spurred by a better-than-expected report on the U.S. job market and revived hopes that Washington will tone down its trade tensions with China.

The S&P 500 climbed 1.5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.4%. The Nasdaq composite rose 1.5%.

The S&P 500 is still down 3.3% so far this year, and 7.4% below the record it reached in February.

The gains were broad. Roughly 90% of stocks and every sector in the S&P 500 advanced. Technology stocks led the way. Microsoft rose 2.3% and Nvidia rose 2.5%. Apple, however, fell 3.7% after the iPhone maker estimated that Trump’s tariffs will cost it $900 million.

Banks and other financial companies also made solid gains. JPMorgan Chase rose 2.3% and Visa closed 1.5% higher.

Employers added 177,000 jobs in April. That marks a slowdown in hiring from March, but it was solidly better than economists anticipated. Jobs are being closely watched for signs of stress amid trade war tensions.

The economy is already showing signs of strain. The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.3% annual pace during the first quarter of the year. It was slowed by a surge in imports as businesses tried to get ahead of Trump’s tariffs.

Companies have been cutting and withdrawing financial forecasts because of the uncertainty over how much tariffs will cost them and how much they will squeeze consumers and sap spending.

Source: AP

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites