Trump Rejects Israeli Assassination Plan Of Iran's Supreme Leader

Political

Middle East Situation

Summary:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government presented a plan to assassinate Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to the United States, Trump rejected the proposal.

Key Takeaways:

● Main event, leadership changes, market impact, financial shifts, or expert insights.

● No direct financial impact within crypto markets.

● Official sources provide varied responses to the proposal.

Trump Blocks Netanyahu's Proposal on Iran

The event underscores geopolitical tensions, highlighting the complexity of international relations and potential impacts on global stability.

Geopolitical Dynamics

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government presented a plan to assassinate Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to the United States.

Donald Trump, as the decisive U.S. authority, rejected the proposal, confirming geopolitical tensions remain high in the Middle East.

Donald Trump expressed that assassination discussions are inappropriate and that Iran has not killed an American, thus declining the plan. Official reactions varied, with Trump's actions aimed at preventing further escalation in the region.

"We communicated to the Israelis that President Trump is opposed to that. The Iranians haven't killed an American and discussion of killing political leaders should not be on the table," stated a senior U.S. official, emphasizing the administration's stance.

Market Implications

The rejection has not led to immediate shifts in the crypto markets or governmental actions. Market trends remain consistent, with no traceable financial response among crypto assets linked to the veto at the current time.

Financial implications might arise from potential geopolitical instability. Historically, major events in the Middle East, like the 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani, influenced market volatility, especially in cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH.

While the decision by Trump hasn't spurred immediate market actions, historical trends suggest geopolitical instability could influence future financial or regulatory outcomes. The market's reaction will unfold as further developments occur in the region.

Source: CryptoSlate

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Economic

Oil Markets React Sharply to Escalating Conflict

Amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran, oil prices continued their upward trajectory on Monday. Brent crude climbed 95 cents to $75.18 per barrel and U.S. benchmark crude added 20 cents to $73.18. The price action followed Friday’s dramatic 7% surge after Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets, marking one of the most significant oil rallies since January.

Market participants remain especially wary of potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly a fifth of global oil supply flows. Iran, though under Western sanctions, remains a key oil producer with about 3.3 million barrels per day in output, and the conflict could further tighten supply and elevate global energy prices.

Equities: Mixed Reactions Across Asia

The equity landscape across Asia reflected investor uncertainty. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 gained 1.3% on optimism surrounding Japan’s domestic economy, while South Korea’s Kospi also rose 0.9%. In contrast, Australia’s ASX slipped 0.2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped slightly by 0.1%. Mainland China’s markets were largely flat, with mixed data showing retail sales improving 6.1% year-on-year but industrial production rising less than expected at 5.8%.

U.S. markets closed sharply lower on Friday, with the S&P 500 falling 1.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.8%, and the Nasdaq losing 1.3%. The declines reflected investor concerns over potential energy inflation, disruptions in consumer travel, and rising geopolitical instability.

Sector Impacts: Winners and Losers

Travel and leisure stocks were among the hardest hit due to anticipated fuel cost increases and potential declines in consumer confidence. Carnival shed 4.9%, Norwegian Cruise Line fell 5%, and United Airlines sank 4.4%. On the other hand, energy producers and defense contractors were beneficiaries of the geopolitical turmoil. Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips gained over 2%, while Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and RTX all advanced more than 3% on expectations of higher defense spending and oil-driven profits.

Gold held steady on Monday after a 1.4% rise Friday, as investors sought safety in the face of global instability. Treasuries, which typically attract inflows in times of fear, ironically saw yields rise as bond prices fell. This reflects growing worries that oil-driven cost increases could fuel a renewed round of inflation. Such fears are compounded by President Trump’s trade policies, with tariffs poised to increase input costs and undermine price stability.

The dollar edged higher to 144.37 yen, while the euro remained steady at $1.1537. A preliminary University of Michigan report released Friday showed consumer sentiment improving for the first time in six months, helped by a temporary tariff pause. Expectations for inflation also eased, but renewed oil shocks could reverse this trend swiftly.

The Asian markets’ mixed start to the week underscores the fragility of investor sentiment in the current geopolitical landscape. As the Israel-Iran conflict shows no signs of de-escalating and supply disruption risks mount, traders and central banks alike face difficult decisions. While defense and energy stocks may benefit from the turmoil, inflation fears could reshape monetary policy trajectories globally. Markets will remain on edge until clearer resolutions emerge from both the Middle East and upcoming Federal Reserve decisions.

Source: AP

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Economic

Euro Strength and Tariff Pressures Not a Major Concern

In an interview with Reuters, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos conveyed a calm stance on recent economic challenges, including the euro’s sharp appreciation and persistent low inflation forecasts. Despite tariffs weighing on eurozone growth and a projected inflation dip to 1.4% in early 2026, de Guindos insisted that the ECB sees balanced risks and remains on track to achieve its medium-term target of 2% inflation.

The euro has climbed 11% against the U.S. dollar over the past three months, reaching its highest point in nearly four years at $1.1632. While such an appreciation typically suppresses imported prices and harms exporters, de Guindos said the rise was neither rapid nor volatile—thus not a serious concern from a monetary policy standpoint. He added that at current levels, “the euro’s exchange rate is not going to be a big obstacle.”

Labour Market to Sustain Price Pressures

De Guindos attributed his confidence in price normalization to continued strength in the eurozone’s labour market. With unemployment low and collective bargaining power strong, he expects compensation growth to hold around 3%, providing a foundation for inflation to rebound. This wage dynamic is expected to offset deflationary effects from external shocks like trade barriers and oil volatility.

While the ECB held rates steady this month, it hinted at slowing the pace of policy easing. Markets have adjusted accordingly, with most investors now pricing in only one further rate cut by year-end, likely in the final quarter. According to de Guindos, this interpretation aligns with the ECB’s communication strategy, particularly President Christine Lagarde’s message of confidence in approaching the inflation target.

No Immediate Challenge to Dollar’s Dominance

De Guindos also addressed speculation about the euro potentially challenging the U.S. dollar's status as the world's dominant reserve currency. Despite a modest decline in the dollar’s global share—now at 58%—he noted that the eurozone lacks the financial and defense infrastructure necessary to mount a serious challenge. The euro remains at around 20% of global reserves, with most of the decline in dollar dominance being absorbed by smaller currencies like the Chinese yuan and the Swiss franc.

He further emphasized trust in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s credibility, stating that the ECB has full faith in the Fed’s renewed dollar liquidity support programs. Gold reserves stored at the New York Fed by some eurozone central banks are considered secure, with no discussion of repatriation despite U.S. political instability.

The ECB’s message is clear: while external conditions—ranging from protectionism to geopolitical tensions—remain turbulent, internal fundamentals like wage growth and a strong labour market are keeping the inflation path steady. The central bank is not rushing to ease policy further and appears confident that its monetary stance remains appropriate for ensuring a sustainable return to price stability in the medium term.

Source: Reuters

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Commodity

Middle East Situation

Middle East Tensions Fuel Oil Price Surge

Oil markets opened the week in volatile territory, with Brent crude rising to $75.35 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbing to $74.08, both up about 1.5% in early Asian trading. The gains followed a dramatic spike of over $4 at the session’s open, driven by escalating military conflict between Israel and Iran that threatens to destabilize the region further and disrupt global oil supply chains.

Both benchmarks had already posted significant gains on Friday, closing nearly 7% higher and surging more than 13% intraday to levels not seen since January 2025.

Focus Shifts to Strait of Hormuz

The market’s primary concern is the security of the Strait of Hormuz, through which an estimated 18 to 19 million barrels per day—roughly 20% of global oil consumption—flows. With fresh missile exchanges and casualties reported over the weekend, the risk of further military escalation and possible disruption to this strategic shipping route is growing.

Toshitaka Tazawa of Fujitomi Securities explained that “buying was driven by the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, with no resolution in sight,” but also noted that price retracement may occur as markets weigh the potential for overreaction.

Iran’s Oil Role and OPEC’s Spare Capacity

Iran, currently producing around 3.3 million barrels per day and exporting more than 2 million bpd, is a critical player in global oil supply. Any interruption to its output would test the ability of OPEC and its allies—including Russia—to stabilize markets using their limited spare capacity, which analysts suggest is only roughly equivalent to Iran’s production.

If the conflict expands or Iran attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz, prices could surge well beyond current levels, exacerbating global inflationary pressures.

Diplomatic Stalemate Continues

Despite U.S. President Donald Trump's public hopes for a ceasefire, he acknowledged that “sometimes countries have to fight it out first.” While the U.S. continues to support Israel, there has been no clear signal of restraint. Iran, meanwhile, told mediators from Qatar and Oman it will not consider a ceasefire while under attack, further dimming hopes for immediate de-escalation.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz echoed calls for diplomacy during the G7 summit in Canada, hoping for a unified stance to prevent further deterioration of the situation.

With military activity intensifying and diplomatic avenues temporarily stalled, traders are bracing for a week of elevated volatility. Any confirmed damage to Iranian oil infrastructure or moves toward blocking maritime routes would likely trigger another wave of bullish momentum in oil markets. Until then, price direction will remain tethered to headlines from the Middle East and any signals from global leaders attempting to broker peace.

Source: Reuters

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Middle East Situation

Political

Iran Shuts Down Ceasefire Talks Amid Ongoing Hostilities

As Israeli airstrikes continue to pound military and nuclear targets in Iran, a senior official has revealed that Tehran is refusing to negotiate a ceasefire under fire. Speaking anonymously to Reuters, the official said Iran has communicated to Qatar and Oman—both traditional intermediaries—that no diplomatic progress will be made until its retaliation is complete.

The rejection comes amid escalating violence after Israel’s preemptive strike on Friday, which reportedly decimated the upper ranks of Iran’s military leadership and damaged nuclear infrastructure. In response, Iran has vowed massive retaliation, declaring it will "open the gates of hell" in what has quickly evolved into one of the region’s gravest confrontations in years.

Diplomatic Efforts Falter

Reports suggesting Iran had appealed to Qatar and Oman to involve the United States in brokering a ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations were denied by the official source, who insisted these claims were inaccurate. Iran has reportedly conveyed that its current stance is one of strategic patience—delaying talks until it completes its military objectives.

This firm position has complicated the efforts of mediators like Oman and Qatar, both of which have historically played neutral roles in regional diplomacy. Oman had recently been engaged in facilitating nuclear discussions between the U.S. and Iran, although the latest round was canceled abruptly following Israel’s wide-ranging air offensive.

Similarly, Qatar’s track record in facilitating back-channel diplomacy, including a 2023 prisoner swap, has done little to sway Iran’s current posture.

Tensions Threaten Regional Stability

The standoff has triggered widespread alarm about the risk of a broader Middle East war, particularly as both Iran and Israel intensify strikes and mobilize additional resources. Civilians across both nations are reportedly bracing for prolonged conflict, and major urban centers—like Tehran—are experiencing shutdowns, as evidenced by the closure of the city’s central bazaar in the aftermath of recent attacks.

While both Oman and Qatar maintain open communication channels with Israel and the United States, the sharp escalation and Iran’s hardened stance suggest that diplomacy is unlikely to produce immediate results.

Iran’s insistence on finishing its military retaliation before considering a ceasefire underscores the fragility of current diplomatic efforts. With both sides escalating and the region on edge, the likelihood of a near-term resolution appears dim—raising the risk that more actors could be drawn into the confrontation and that regional stability may hang in the balance.

Source: Reuters

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Commodity

Middle East Situation

Geopolitical Tensions Push Gold Beyond $3,400

Gold extended its rally for a fourth consecutive session on Monday, climbing 0.3% to $3,442.09 per ounce in early Asian trading and touching its highest level since April 22. The sharp move reflects heightened investor anxiety over deepening military exchanges between Israel and Iran, prompting a rush into traditional safe-haven assets.

According to OANDA’s senior market analyst Kelvin Wong, the rising political risk premium has firmly supported gold prices, resulting in a breakout above the $3,400 resistance level. He highlighted that the short-term trend remains bullish, with the $3,500 mark now acting as the next psychological and technical resistance.

Conflict Between Israel and Iran Escalates

Over the weekend, both Israel and Iran exchanged heavy attacks, leading to civilian casualties and igniting fears of a broader regional war. Military officials on both sides urged their populations to prepare for further strikes, which only deepened the market’s defensive posture. Although President Donald Trump expressed hope for a potential peace deal, he also acknowledged that military confrontation may persist before diplomacy resumes.

In such volatile conditions, gold historically functions as a hedge against geopolitical shocks. Investors have responded accordingly, positioning heavily in gold as uncertainty clouds the macroeconomic outlook.

Rate Expectations and Fed Decision Loom

Attention now shifts toward monetary policy, with the US Federal Reserve scheduled to announce its rate decision on Wednesday. While no immediate rate changes are expected, markets are keen to interpret the Fed’s language and updated “dot plot” forecasts for clues on future policy direction.

Last week’s subdued inflation print has reinforced expectations that the Fed may begin easing later this year. Futures markets currently price in two potential rate cuts by December, with a likely first move in September.

A dovish shift could further lift gold, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bullion.

Other precious metals were steady to higher. Spot silver held at $36.29 per ounce, platinum increased 0.4% to $1,233.87, and palladium jumped 1.3% to $1,040.96—benefiting from the general bullish sentiment in the metals space and speculative inflows.

As geopolitical risks mount and monetary policy uncertainty persists, gold has regained its shine as a defensive asset. Should tensions in the Middle East intensify or the Fed adopt a more accommodative stance, gold could plausibly breach the $3,500 threshold, marking a new high for 2025.

Source: Reuters

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Commodity

Middle East Situation

Options Market Sees Rare Bullish Frenzy in Asia Hours

The oil options market opened the week with an unusual spike in bullish activity, as traders rushed to hedge or speculate on further price increases driven by the escalating Israel-Iran conflict. According to Bloomberg, several thousand August call options—contracts that profit if oil prices rise—were traded in early Monday Asian sessions, with strike prices above $80 per barrel. Additionally, 2,000 lots of August Brent calls at strike levels of $100 and $101 were exchanged, highlighting strong demand for upside protection or speculative leverage.

This level of options activity, especially during Asian hours, is highly atypical, suggesting heightened global anxiety and swift positioning by investors. While it remains unclear if these trades are part of broader portfolio strategies, the sheer volume reflects the growing urgency in the energy markets.

Israel-Iran Conflict Pushes Oil into Backwardation

The burst in call buying follows a weekend of military escalation, including attacks targeting energy infrastructure. Israel’s strike on Iran, aimed at crippling nuclear capabilities and military leadership, has renewed fears of widespread supply disruption.

These tensions have deepened the backwardation in Brent crude futures—where near-term contracts are priced higher than long-term ones—typically a bullish market structure. Brent timespreads widened noticeably on Monday, with nearly 20,000 futures contracts traded in the opening five minutes.

Front-month Brent futures rose by 1% to $75.02 a barrel during the Asian session, extending last week’s 13% surge, which already reflected geopolitical premiums.

Volatility High, Bullish Skew Remains Despite Slight Pullback

Although option skew—a metric that compares demand for bullish calls versus bearish puts—edged slightly lower in early Monday trading, it remained near its most bullish point since early 2022. Implied volatility also stayed elevated, signaling continued market nervousness about potential supply shocks.

Commodity strategist Soni Kumari from ANZ Bank emphasized the market’s geopolitical sensitivity, noting that if Iran were to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz—through which nearly 17 million barrels per day of oil pass—it could pose a severe threat to global energy flows. While such an extreme action is considered unlikely, its possibility underpins traders’ aggressive positioning.

With the Israel-Iran conflict intensifying and no signs of de-escalation in sight, oil traders are increasingly pricing in geopolitical risk. The early surge in call option volume and broader market behavior suggest that sentiment is tilting heavily bullish, driven by fears of supply disruption and elevated volatility. As trading continues in Western markets, further momentum could follow, reinforcing oil’s recent upward trajectory.