Trump Might Claim China Tariff Victory – But This Is Capitulation Day

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

Summary:

The president’s retreat suggests he might negotiate elsewhere, but leaves corrosive uncertainty in its wake

Donald Trump will inevitably claim Monday’s temporary truce in the US-China trade war as a victory, but financial markets seem to have read it for what it is – a capitulation.

Stocks were up and bond yields were higher after the US treasury secretary Scott Bessent’s early morning press conference in Geneva, where he has been holding talks with China.

As with the UK “trade deal” last week, the US is not reverting to the status quo before Trump arrived in the White House.

Instead, tariffs on Chinese goods will be cut from 145% to 30% – initially for a 90-day period. In return, China has cut its own tariffs on US imports to 10%, from the 125% it had imposed in retaliation against the White House.

That still marks a big shift in the terms of trade between the two countries since before Trump came to power, but falls far short of what was in effect a trade embargo.

The two sides have pledged to keep talking, but there was no reference in the statement put out by the White House to other gripes it has previously raised about China, including the weakness of the yuan.

Instead, the statement hailed “the importance of a sustainable, long-term and mutually beneficial economic and trade relationship”. The language was rather different to Trump’s Liberation Day speech, about the US being “looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far”.

In other words, the president has caved. He may have been swayed by market wobbles but it seems more plausible that dire warnings from retailers about empty shelves – backed up by data showing shipments into US ports collapsing – may have strengthened the hands of trade moderates in the administration.

Confronted with warnings of a shortage of toys, Trump told reporters that children should be happy with “two dolls instead of 30 dolls”, and they might “cost a couple bucks more” than usual. But it is difficult to imagine even this most bullish of presidents withstanding the attacks that would come his way if he began to be seen as responsible for Covid-style shortages of key goods in the world’s largest economy.

Instead, the White House seems to have opted for tactical retreat. The China-US conflict was always the hottest theatre of confrontation in Trump’s trade war, with a longer history and deeper public support than his quixotic attacks on Mexico and Canada.

If Trump is indeed ready to give in even with Beijing, it sends a signal that some of the other aggressive aspects of his trade policy may be negotiable.

What Bessent and his Chinese counterparts have not erased, however, is the corrosive uncertainty that has gripped investors across the global economy since Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement.

China tariffs have only been slashed temporarily, for now and many other countries are still awaiting negotiations on where their tariff levels will end up, after that other 90-day pause, on Trump’s “reciprocal” levies, due to end in July.

Meanwhile, companies throughout the global trading system are left wondering which particular iteration of the policy is likely to stick, and may well be tempted to continue working around the US, where possible.

And with 30% tariffs remaining on Chinese exports to the US, the bigger picture remains of two great economic powers pulling apart.

Source: Theguardian

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Adam

Stocks

U.S. stock futures surged Monday after the White House announced a trade deal with China had been reached, with both sides agreeing to lower their respective levies.

At 06:30 ET (10:30 GMT), Dow futures gained 975 points, or 2.4%, S&P 500 futures climbed 170 points, or 3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 785 points, or 3.9%.

Gains in futures come after a positive week on Wall Street, as the prospect of a Sino-U.S. trade deal lifted spirits and spurred buying into risk-driven assets.

U.S.-China tariffs to be cut

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Sunday afternoon that a trade deal had been struck with China after negotiations over the weekend in Geneva, and more substance surrounding the agreement was subsequently announced on Monday.

The two sides have agreed to a 90-day pause to soaring tariffs placed on each other, Washington has moved to slash tariffs on China to 30% and Beijing’s duties on U.S. imports are being cut to 10%, the nations said in a rare joint statement following high-stakes trade talks over the weekend.

Heading into the talks, U.S. President Donald Trump had raised tariffs on China to at least 145%, leading China to respond with retaliatory levies on American imports of 125%.

"The consensus from both delegations is that neither side wanted a decoupling," U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a news conference.

More trade negotiations are planned between the two, while both sides may conduct working-level consultations on relevant economic and trade issues.

Investors, who have been worried that the trade spat could spiral into a global crisis that threatened economic activity and increased uncertainty for businesses, have welcomed the changes.

“The tone of stock markets has been downward over the last two months, weighed down by fear of the effects of a possible tariff war and other tough-line measures by Donald Trump, but the situation shows signs of some stabilization and even moderate upturns have been seen in the most recent sessions," said Alberto Matellan, managing director at La Financiere Responsable.

“All of this is explained by the loss of confidence caused by the White House, something that has not been reversed; however, if progress is made toward a clearer scenario, the market’s performance will be positive.

“What has happened over the past two months, even before ‘Liberation Day,’ is that Trump has broken trust—the market doesn’t trust Trump or the economy. And once trust is broken, it’s difficult to rebuild it, but also harder to destroy it further. Only by making things clearer can there be a positive development for the stock markets in general.”

India and Pakistan ceasefire

In another potential market-moving development, India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire after increased tensions in recent days. U.S. President Donald Trump said U.S.-led mediation allowed cooler heads to prevail.

“After a long night of talks mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE,” Trump said on Saturday. Pakistan praised the U.S.’s role in the ceasefire, although India downplayed it.

The ceasefire appeared to be holding, although both India and Pakistan had accused each other of violations.

Trump to slash pharma prices

Elsewhere, the pharmaceutical sector is likely to be in focus Monday after Trump said on Sunday that he plans to sign an executive order lowering prescription drug and pharmaceutical prices by between 30% and 80%.

Trump said he will "be signing one of the most consequential executive orders in our Country’s history," in the White House on Monday morning.

Trump claimed that pharma prices will "rise throughout the world" in order to bring fairness to America.

In other pharma news, Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) said that its Zepbound weight loss drug had outperformed rival Novo Nordisk’s (NYSE:NVO) Wegovy in a recent head-to-head trial.

There are more earnings to digest this week, in what has generally been a mostly positive first quarter, with prints from Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW), Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW), Target (NYSE:TGT), and Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) due in the coming days.

Crude soars on trade deal

Oil prices rose Monday, building on last week’s sharp gains as the announcement of a China-U.S. trade deal raised hope that the world’s two largest crude users may be moving toward a resolution of their dispute.

Source: investing

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Glendon

Commodity

Economic

Oil prices soared Monday, adding to last week’s sharp gains, after the U.S. and China announced a trade deal which would ease some of their tariff measures, raising hopes of an end to the trade war between the world’s two largest consumers of crude oil.

At 08:20 ET (12:20 GMT), Brent Oil Futures expiring in June rose 3.7% to $66.28 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 4% to $63.43 per barrel.

Both contracts rose by more than 4% last week on optimism over a potential de-escalation in Trump’s tariff agenda.

U.S.-China deal eases tensions

Monday’s surge was driven by the news that the U.S. and China have agreed to a 90-day pause to soaring tariffs placed on each other and will temporarily lower their respective levies.

Washington has agreed to cut U.S. President Donald Trump’s so-called "reciprocal" tariffs on China to 10%, while a 20% tariff related to Beijing’s alleged role in the flow of the illegal drug fentanyl remains in force. Meanwhile, China’s duties on U.S. imports are being cut to 10%, the nations said in a rare joint statement following high-stakes trade talks over the weekend.

More negotiations are planned between the two sides, while both sides may conduct working-level consultations on relevant economic and trade issues, the countries said.

Crude prices have been hit hard over the last month or so on worries that the trade spat may spiral into a crisis that could threaten global economic activity and increase uncertainty for businesses.

As the world’s two largest economies move toward a more stable trade relationship, expectations of stronger industrial activity and consumer demand, especially in China, lifted sentiment around the demand outlook.

OPEC+ hike decision weighs heavily

Despite the positive outlook, oil price gains were tempered by plans from OPEC+ to increase oil output in May and June.

“These changes to its production schedule ultimately shorten the timeline for the full return of the 2.2 mm b/d tranche of its production cuts to 14 months from the 18 months initially announced in December 2024,” said analysts at BCA Research, in a note dated May 12.

The hike decision comes at a time when there is already plenty of demand uncertainty.

The timing of these production hikes suggests that geopolitical considerations are also at play, BCA added. Specifically, U.S.-Saudi relations.

President Trump has been explicit about his preference for low oil prices, and Saudi Arabia is hoping to secure greater military, defence, and civil nuclear cooperation.

By unwinding some support for oil prices ahead of Trump’s visit this week, Saudi Arabia may be hoping to demonstrate that it is willing to negotiate in good faith.

Elsewhere, U.S.-Iran nuclear talks concluded on Sunday, with further negotiations planned, leaving the potential for increased Iranian oil exports uncertain.

The fourth round of talks occurred in advance of Trump’s trip to the Middle East.

Investors also closely watched increased geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan, as the nuclear-armed neighbors engaged in their worst fighting in decades.

The two countries reached a ceasefire agreement on Saturday, though reports of violations emerged shortly afterward.

Source: Investing

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

China–U.S. Trade War

U.S. and Chinese officials said Monday they had reached a deal to roll back most of their recent tariffs and call a 90-day truce in their trade war for more talks on resolving their trade disputes.

Stock markets rose sharply as the globe’s two major economic powers took a step back from a clash that has unsettled the global economy.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the U.S. agreed to drop its 145% tariff rate on Chinese goods by 115 percentage points to 30%, while China agreed to lower its rate on U.S. goods by the same amount to 10%.

Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the tariff reductions at a news conference in Geneva.

The two officials struck a positive tone as they said the two sides had set up consultations to continue discussing their trade issues. Bessent said at the news briefing after two days of talks that the high tariff levels would have amounted to a complete blockage of each side’s goods, an outcome neither side wants.

“The consensus from both delegations this weekend is neither side wants a decoupling,” Bessent said. “And what had occurred with these very high tariff ... was an embargo, the equivalent of an embargo. And neither side wants that. We do want trade.”

“We want more balanced trade,” he said. “And I think that both sides are committed to achieving that.”

The delegations, escorted around town and guarded by scores of Swiss police, met for at least a dozen hours on both days of the weekend at a sunbaked 17th-century villa that serves as the official residence of the Swiss ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva.

At times, the delegation leaders broke away from their staffs and settled into sofas on the villa’s patios overlooking Lake Geneva, helping deepen personal ties in the effort to reach a much-sought deal.

China’s Commerce Ministry said the two sides agreed to cancel 91% in tariffs on each other’s goods and suspend another 24% in tariffs for 90 days, bringing the total reduction to 115 percentage points.

The ministry called the agreement an important step for the resolution of the two countries’ differences and said it lays the foundation for further cooperation.

“This initiative aligns with the expectations of producers and consumers in both countries and serves the interests of both nations as well as the common interests of the world,” a ministry statement said.

China hopes the U.S will stop “the erroneous practice of unilateral tariff hikes” and work with China to safeguard the development of their economic and trade relations, injecting more certainty and stability into the global economy, the ministry said.

The joint statement issued by the two countries said China also agreed to suspend or remove other measures it has taken since April 2 in response to the U.S. tariffs.

China has increased export controls on rare earths including some critical to the defense industry and added more American companies to its export control and unreliable entity lists, restricting their business with and in China.

The full impact on the complicated tariffs and other trade penalties enacted by Washington and Beijing remains unclear. And much depends on whether they will find ways to bridge longstanding differences during the 90-day suspension. Bessent said in an interview with CNBC that U.S. and Chinese officials will meet again in a few weeks.

But investors rejoiced as trade envoys from the world’s two biggest economies blinked, finding ways to pull back from potentially massive disruptions to world trade and their own markets.

Futures for the S&P 500 jumped 2.6% and for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 2%. Oil prices surged more than $1.60 a barrel and the U.S. dollar gained against the euro and the Japanese yen.

“This is a substantial de-escalation,” said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics. But he warned “there is no guarantee that the 90-day truce will give way to a lasting ceasefire.”

Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, welcomed the news but expressed caution. The tariffs only were suspended for 90 days and there is great uncertainty over what lies ahead, he said in a statement.

“Businesses need predictability to maintain normal operations and make investment decisions. The chamber therefore hopes to see both sides continue to engage in dialogue to resolve differences, and avoid taking measures that will disrupt global trade and result in collateral damage for those caught in the cross-fire,” Eskelund said.

Trump last month raised U.S. tariffs on China to a combined 145%, and China retaliated by hitting American imports with a 125% levy. Tariffs that high essentially amount to the two countries boycotting each other’s products, disrupting trade that last year topped $660 billion.

The announcement by the U.S. and China sent shares surging, with U.S. futures jumping more than 2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index surged nearly 3% and benchmarks in Germany and France were both up 0.7%

The Trump administration has imposed tariffs on countries worldwide, but its fight with China has been the most intense. Trump’s import taxes on goods from China include a 20% charge meant to pressure Beijing into doing more to stop the flow of the synthetic opioid fentanyl into the United States.

Source: AP

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Economic

India–Palestine conflict

Two days of high-stakes talks between the US and China have led to a 90-day pause on tariffs, with duties set to drop by 115 percentage points on both sides by Wednesday.

The move will drop American tariffs on Chinese goods, which currently run as high as 145%, to 30% and slash China's retaliatory duties from 125% to 10%.

It marked a dramatic pause in a trade war between the two nations that had been the equivalent of an embargo, with a steep drop in trading activity seen between the two nations.

It also gives markets what they wanted: a deescalation. US futures markets surged higher in premarket trading.

"Neither side wants a decoupling," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday morning to reporters after saying Sunday that the talks had yielded "substantial progress."

He added that the 90-day pause could also be extended, saying, "as long as there is good faith effort, engagement, and constructive dialogue, then we will keep moving forward."

The agreement was announced in a a joint statement from the two nations that suggesting alternating talks in China and the United States in the weeks ahead.

"The Parties will establish a mechanism to continue discussions about economic and trade relations," the statement added.

The closely watched talks stretched over two days, with Secretary Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer representing the US side, and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng leading the talks from the Chinese side.

Chinese state-run media also published the joint statement on Monday and added that the talks had seen "major consensus [with] substantial progress during the talks."

Secretary Bessent then followed up Monday's announcement with a series of media appearances.

On CNBC, he confirmed that the aim is for more talks in the next few weeks as the two sides look for a "more fulsome agreement." On MSNBC, he added that the remaining 10% reciprocal tariffs on China represent "a floor" and that he didn't see a chance for more lowering on that front. On Bloomberg, he added it's now possible to imagine a call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in the coming weeks or months.

President Trump previously called the talks "a total reset" and helped open the door to deescalation in recent days.

He previously floated a possible 80% rate on the US side while hailing the progress in Switzerland with a post Saturday that it had been "a very good meeting today with China ... negotiated in a friendly, but constructive, manner."

A move 'toward resolving' tensions

This weekend's talks are expected to be the first in a drawn-out process of negotiations that will span an array of complex issues, from intellectual property to currency manipulation to steel “dumping” to semiconductors to agriculture to fentanyl.

Fentanyl was a key issue in this weekend's talks, with Bessent calling the issue the "upside surprise for me from this weekend." The Chinese sent a deputy minister to the talks to directly address the issue.

For now, the 20% duties that Trump imposed on China over fentanyl to begin his term will remain in place — which is why US duties are now moving to 30% compared to China's 10%.

Other sector-specific duties that the US imposed on China before Trump took office this year on "strategic sectors" like electric vehicles and steel are also remaining in place and are not changed by Monday's announcement, according to US officials.

In his own comments, Bessent added a key outstanding issue for him: "We have identified five or six strategic industries and supply chain vulnerabilities, and we will continue moving towards US independence or reliable supplies of allies on those."

It was a weekend that came after days of deescalation from Trump and his team and a weeks-long diplomatic dance in which both sides ratcheted up tariffs to an effective trade embargo and tried to position the other as more in need of a deal.

As recently as last Wednesday, Trump said that the US is "losing nothing" by not trading with Beijing and was also asked about the Chinese contention that the 145% tariff needed to be brought down before substantive negotiations could start and whether he was open to that, with the president simply answering, "No."

But his tone began to shift. By Thursday, Trump said regarding tariffs that, if this weekend's talks go well, "you know it's coming down." By Friday morning, he had opened the door to a lowering further posting that a lowering of tariffs to 80% "seems right."

Source:finance.yahoo

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

China–U.S. Trade War

Economic

London stocks were still firmer by midday on Monday after the US and China agreed a temporary deal to cut tariffs.

The FTSE 100 was up 0.5% at 8,598.83 after the US and China agreed to significantly lower tariffs following a key agreement struck in Geneva over the weekend.

The world’s two largest economies will now cut levies for the next 90 days. Washington will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% from 145%, while Beijing will lower duties to 10% from 125%.

Speaking at a press conference in Geneva, US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said: "We want more balanced trade, and I think both sides are committed to achieving that.

"Neither side wants to a decoupling."

He added that the two sides now had a "mechanism for continued talks".

In Beijing, China’s state broadcaster CCTV called the talks "candid, in-depth and constructive". Official media reports also noted that further discussions "on issues of mutual concern" were now expected.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said: "Markets have welcomed the tentative US-China trade agreement with open arms.

"While the trade spat has only been dialled back for 90 days, it’s a major breakthrough as far as investors are concerned. The fact the two countries were talking was already a major win given they’ve been at each other’s throats during the first and second Trump presidential terms.

"Some people thought the best-case outcome from the weekend’s discussions would be an agreement to simply keep talks going. Therefore, to have reached an initial deal so quickly and one that rolls back tariffs by a large amount is a pleasant surprise.

"The UK-US trade deal last week made it perfectly clear that Trump wasn’t going to get rid of tariffs completely. If one of its greatest allies is forced to still have a 10% base tariff, there is no way that tariffs on China would have disappeared completely upon a trade deal.

"Lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% is a big deal and one that significantly lessens the blow to the Asian economy. As ever, it’s clear that these deals aren’t even sided. China is cutting duties on US imports from 125% to 10%. That’s the same percentage point reduction as on the other side of the coin, but the US is still subject to lower tariffs.

"The next 90 days are going to be crucial in determining the longer-term tariff levels between the two countries. It would only take China upsetting Trump once for him to rip up the 90-day deal and revert back to sky-high tariffs. China won’t want to come across as weak in any discussion and is certainly not a push-over, yet it will be cognisant of the situation’s fragility.

"Trump has shown he is willing to reduce the severity of the Liberation Day tariffs and that has raised hopes for other countries to secure more favourable trade deals. All this points to the potential for a less severe hit to global trade and lower fears of recession. That in turn has put investors in risk-on mode."

In equity markets, heavily-weighted miners were among the top performers, with Glencore, Anglo American, Antofagasta and Rio all higher.

4imprint was the standout gainer on the FTSE 250, having warned in March that tariffs could dent sales this year.

Shares in meat producer Cranswick plunged after Britain’s Big Four supermarkets all suspended supplies from its Northmoor Farm in Lincolnshire following reports of animal abuse.

Secret recordings obtained by the Mail on Sunday showed workers at the site engaging in inhumane practices, including piglet ‘thumping’ - a criminal offence whereby runts of the litter or sick piglets are killed by being violently hit against floors and walls. Botching killings of sows were also filmed, along with a number of other unnecessary acts that put pigs under distress and considerable pain.

Cranswick is the largest meat supplier to grocers in the UK, and Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Morrisons and Asda have all announced that they pulled supplies immediately following the revelations.

Victrex was also weaker after interim results, while AstraZeneca and Hikma Pharmaceuticals both fell after Trump said he would sign an executive order to cut drug prices.

Source: Sharecast

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Glendon

Economic

Forex

The trade agreement between the US and China marks a dramatic volte-face after weeks of simmering tensions. But don’t expect an equally breathtaking about turn from US consumers. Amid the uncertainty about economic growth, job cuts and inflation, it will take time for shoppers to regain their confidence. Even if they do, there are some reasons why the pain for retailers and consumer goods groups may be prolonged.

Monday’s announcement means the combined 145% US levies on most Chinese imports will decline to 30% by May 14. The new, lower rate is still unhelpful, but it’s a lot better than the threatened levy, which would have made some products, including toys and Christmas decorations, simply uneconomic to sell.

Retailers, suppliers and consumers will still have to share some pain. For Americans, that means some level of price inflation on the mostly non-food items that come from China. Take clothing, for example. At 145%, retail prices for the mid-market knitwear and coats that are typically manufactured in China may have had to increase by 20% to 30%. Price hikes should now be less.

The accord should encourage retailers to restart paused orders, or ship goods they’ve been holding in China in anticipation that a deal would be reached. Even before Monday’s announcement there were signs that trade had begun to pick up; that should mean fewer gaps on shelves this holiday season.

But the disruption will take time to work its way out of the system. Take toys. Many should have been manufactured by now. Even if production restarts immediately, Santa might not be bringing some items. The bigger risk is a tsunami of goods arriving in mid-market department stores when they’re no longer welcome; heavier-weight spring jackets and knitwear, for example, after temperatures have already risen as summer approaches.

This is exactly what happened in 2022, when supply chain snarl ups in the approach to the 2021 holiday season led to loungewear and small appliances landing six months later, when consumers had already moved on. This led to a mountain of inventory that stores were forced to discount. If the same happens now, it will test the resolve of retailers to resist markdowns.

It doesn’t help that consumers have rushed to purchase over the past few months in anticipation of higher prices. Cars were the favorite target of those seeking to beat the hikes. But Americans also shopped for home furnishings, electronics, clothing and footwear. Big, expensive, purchases like a car or sofa won’t be repeated, and may sap the funds available for other types of outlay.

When it comes to clothing, shoppers typically spend to a budget. If they’ve bought sneakers or a patchwork quilted jacket already, many won’t buy again.

Some US consumers may be reluctant to splurge for a different reason: they still feel nervous about a recession. Across the income spectrum, it’s clear that many are cutting back. The most pressed are already acting as if the worst is here: for example, reusing cooking oil one more time.

But the more affluent are feeling the pinch, too. McDonald’s Corp. said the pressure from inflation and interest rates that’s been hurting poorer Americans for the past few years was now “spilling over” into middle-income customers. On Friday, for example, Sweetgreen Inc. cut its annual guidance; clearly $16 salads are off the menu. Chief Financial Officer Mitch Reback said same-store sales were positive in March, but turned negative in April “coinciding with the tariff announcements.” He told Bloomberg News that April has traditionally been a month when the chain’s performance picks up as temperatures rise; “this is the first time we haven’t seen that lift.”

US luxury goods demand has also weakened, according to Citigroup Inc.’s monthly credit card data, turning negative in February, March and April after recovering in December and January. While the S&P 500 has bounced back from its so-called “Liberation Day” lows, we splurge on a Gucci handbag or Rolex watch when we feel wealthy and upbeat about life. After the dislocation, it will take time for any feel-good factor to return.

Meanwhile, the accord with China is only temporary, and let’s not forget that levies on other important manufacturing nations, such as Vietnam, are only paused rather than being completely off the table. An escalation of the trade war may have been averted. Not so the tariff whiplash for consumers.