The US stock market’s tariff exposure is about to be laid bare

Stocks

China–U.S. Trade War

Summary:

The S&P 500’s profitability is highly dependent on the technology sector, making it vulnerable to new tariffs. Rising levies threaten corporate margins, with non-tech companies having little cushion to absorb shocks.

The track record of S&P 500 (^GSPC) Index companies over the past two decades suggests their ability to withstand additional levies is fragile, at least by one measure. Nearly all of the margin growth eked out from corporate sales on the gauge since 2004 has come from the booming technology sector, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Removing the group, profitability barely rose.

The consequences for the US economy and corporate profits from the proposed tariffs is one of the top concerns that investors have been grappling with this month. The first-quarter earnings season so far has shown that companies themselves are unsure of the fallout, further adding to the angst.

The US stock market’s tariff exposure is about to be laid bare_1

“Not only is the S&P 500’s ability to absorb the tariff shock weaker than it appears, I would argue that because of tech, the index is also more vulnerable to tariffs,” said Paul Nolte, market strategist and senior wealth manager at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management.

Before the Bell: China Mulls Some Exemptions, Stocks Set to Rise

While Trump and his administration are currently in talks with more than 50 countries, the average tariff rate stands at around 22.8% and could go as high as 32.6% depending on how negotiations resolve, Bloomberg Economics estimates. Such high levies are likely to be extremely disruptive for American businesses, raising their costs and squeezing profitability.

Thin Cushion

The unremarkable expansion of operating margins across the rest of the S&P 500 over the past two decades means, if tariffs turn into a major headwind, the majority of the remaining US companies in the index barely have any cushion left to absorb the impact and grow further.

S&P 500 companies are estimated by BI to have an operating margin of 16.4% in 2025, which drops to 13.5% when excluding technology, though the estimates likely don’t yet reflect the full impact of the potential new trade regime. The tech sector by itself is estimated to generate a margin of 34.1% this year.

“There was a reason why the mega-cap tech stocks were dominating the rally in 2023 and 2024 — they were making huge profits, while almost everybody else was floundering,” said Matt Maley, chief strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.

Maley sees more reason for caution with overall earnings estimates for the year being reined in. Analysts now estimate 2025 profits for the S&P 500 will rise 7.9%, down from an expectation of nearly 13% growth at the beginning of the year, data compiled by BI show.

“If the one area that was still driving increases losses steam, it’s going to catch a lot of investors off guard, even after this outsized decline,” Maley said, pointing to the recent selloff ignited by Trump’s tariffs on the country’s trade partners on April 2.

It’s a wake-up call for investors who have been enjoying the tremendous run in US stocks over the past few years, driven largely by technology companies. The group now wields a massive influence on the overall S&P 500 given its market-cap weighted composition.

Technology stocks themselves are also highly susceptible to declines in share prices given their still-steep valuations and risk dragging down the overall gauge, given the sector’s hefty weighting.

“Tariffs will hinder the benchmark’s largest earnings growth engine,” said Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading. “Tech will likely be the source of the largest margin drag within the index.”

Source: yahoo

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Warren Takunda

Stocks

Wall Street is on track to open with modest losses Friday, though the retreat before the bell is not enough to negate a broad rebound in market s this week.

Futures for the S&P 500 fell 0.1%, while futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.4%. Nasdaq futures also ticked down 0.1%.

The slight downturn follows three straight days of gains, propelled by strong corporate earnings and hopes for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Shares of Alphabet jumped 5% overnight after Google’s parent company reported late Thursday that its profit soared 50% in the first quarter. Google’s stellar results come as the tech giant faces competitive and legal threats amid an economy roiled by a global trade war. Before Friday’s after-hours gain, Alphabet shares had fallen by 16% since the end of last year.

On the losing side in premarket trading was Intel, which beat Wall Street’s quarterly projections, but issued conservative guidance for 2025. Executives cited an “increasingly uncertain” economic landscape driven by shifting trade policies, persistent inflation and increased regulatory risks. Intel shares slid 6.8% before markets opened.

President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, often followed by reversals or pauses of those policies, have been roiling markets since Trump took office in January. Though companies have largely continued to post strong earnings, many have cut or pulled their guidance for the year, citing economic uncertainty around Trump’s trade policy.

Elsewhere, in Europe at midday, the CAC 40 in Paris added 0.7%, while Germany’s DAX was 0.4% higher. The British FTSE 100 was unchanged after the country reported better-than-expectation retail sales in March.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 surged 1.9% to 35,705.74 and the Kospi in South Korea gained 0.9% to 2,546.15.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng picked up 0.3% to 21,980.74, while the Shanghai Composite Index inched down 0.1% to 3,295.06.

The rally was boosted by hopes that Trump was softening his approach on tariffs and his criticism of the Federal Reserve, but China denied Thursday it’s involved in active trade negotiations with the U.S.

Tech stocks rose in China after some semiconductor import companies told Caijing Magazine that some chips made in the U.S. had been quietly exempted from the country’s 125% retaliatory tariffs.

The Lenovo Group rose 3.4% while the Chinese search engine company Baidu added 3.9%.

However, the shares of China’s largest semiconductor foundry, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, lost 2.8%.

Taiwan’s Taiex added 2%. India’s Sensex sank 0.4% after tensions with Pakistan over the Pahalgam terror attack.

The market in Australia was closed because of Anzac Day.

In other moves early Friday, U.S. benchmark crude oil shed 80 cents to $61.99 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent crude, the international standard, slid 81 cents to $64.84 per barrel.

The U.S dollar rose to 143.29 Japanese yen from 142.69 yen. The euro edged lower, to $1.1363 from $1.1391.

Source: AP

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Adam

Stocks

Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:

Jump around

Stocks are on a three-day winning streak and poised to end the week higher heading into Friday trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 2.5% so far this week, the S&P 500 has gained 3.8% and the Nasdaq Composite has added 5.4%. That jump in the Nasdaq follows a recovery in megacap tech stocks, though they may see more turbulence ahead. “I think we’re still in for a period of choppiness around stock trading, and I think heading into next week, it’s really going to be the big tech earnings that are going to really influence where the major averages go,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise. Follow live market updates.

Alphabet advertising

Google parent Alphabet reported 12% revenue growth for the first quarter, boosted by strength in search and advertising. The two segments brought in $50.7 billion and $66.89 billion, respectively, up roughly 9% each from the year earlier. But Alphabet executives warned its ad business could feel the impacts of the ongoing trade war, if advertisers pull back. Sectors like retail, health care and travel helped boost Google ad revenue and are likely to face increased costs under a high-tariff scheme.

Center demand

Demand for AI data centers isn’t slowing down in the face of recession fears, according to executives from Amazon and Nvidia . “We continue to see very strong demand, and we’re looking both in the next couple years as well as long term and seeing the numbers only going up,” Amazon Web Services Vice President of Global Data Centers Kevin Miller said on Thursday. Likewise, “We haven’t seen a pullback,” Nvidia Senior Director of Corporate Sustainability Josh Parker said. The comments came at a conference organized by the Hamm Institute for American Energy in Oklahoma City and run counter to recent worries that tech companies would pull back if belts get tightened.

Off the market

Home sales last month notched their slowest March since 2009. Sales fell 5.9% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted 4.02 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. Every region of the country saw sales declines, even as inventory rose. As of the end of last month, there were 1.33 million active listing, up nearly 20% year-over-year. “March numbers are bad,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, adding, “they’re likely to get worse.”

Big-ticket buying

March was the month for big-ticket purchases. Durable goods orders soared a seasonally adjusted 9.2% month over month, according to data from the Commerce Department, far surpassing the 1.6% gain that Dow Jones economists expected. In February, the measure rose less than 1% year over year. The surge is the result of a pull-forward in big buying ahead of President Donald Trump’s promised “Liberation Day” duties on April 2. An appliance bought in March was a safer bet than the same appliance subject to ever-evolving tariff rates in April.

Source: cnbc

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Glendon

Political

On 22 April, a terror attack in the Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam in Indian-administered Jammu & Kashmir claimed the lives of 26 people, mostly Indian tourists. This is the deadliest attack in the disputed territory since 2019 when a car bomb targeting a convoy of buses carrying Indian paramilitary soldiers killed 40 people in Pulwama. More alarmingly, it is the biggest attack targeting civilians in over two decades. The Resistance Front (TRF), a proxy for Lashkar-e-Taiba – a Pakistan-based terrorist organization – has claimed responsibility for the attack, while the civilian government in Pakistan has denied any involvement.

Benign neglect or strategic restraint?

When the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi assumed power in 2014, it extended an olive branch to Pakistan, inviting then Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and other South Asian leaders to Modi’s inauguration. Modi even visited Sharif on his birthday in 2015.

But relations between India and Pakistan have since deteriorated. In 2016, India carried out so-called ‘surgical strikes’ inside Pakistan-administered Kashmir in response to an attack on an Indian army facility in Uri. In 2019, India launched airstrikes inside Pakistani territory following the Pulwama terror attack. The Modi government’s decision to end the special autonomous status of Indian-administered Kashmir in August 2019 further soured relations between New Delhi and Islamabad.

A degree of benign neglect has since crept into the bilateral relationship with Islamabad preoccupied with internal instabilities and tensions on its borders with Afghanistan and Iran, while New Delhi has sought to focus on India’s global role and aspirations rather than its chronically difficult relationship with Pakistan. This became apparent during last month’s Raisina Dialogue – India’s premier foreign policy conference – where there was hardly any discussion on India’s neighbourhood.

Whether due to the deterrent effect of the two countries’ nuclear arsenals or simply due to other priorities, there has been a degree of strategic restraint in the India–Pakistan relationship in recent years. A ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC) demarcating Indian and Pakistan-administered Kashmir has largely held since 2021. In 2022, a missile accidentally launched by India landed in Pakistani territory, but did not trigger a retaliatory response by Islamabad. And despite its more assertive posturing, New Delhi has sought to minimize collateral damage in its retaliatory actions. Of all the countries that Pakistan shares borders with, the border with India has been the most stable in recent years.

Political and geopolitical undercurrents

The attack comes at a time when the Pakistani military is on the back foot following a string of terrorist attacks inside Pakistan and eroding public support for the army following the arrest and imprisonment of former prime minister Imran Khan and the persecution of his supporters. Pakistani army chief Asim Munir has sought to reaffirm the importance of the military to the preservation of the Pakistani state. In a speech last week he also referred to Kashmir as Pakistan’s ‘jugular vein’.

Although the civilian government in Islamabad has denied involvement, there is precedent for attacks on India taking place during periods when the Pakistani military feels it is being marginalized. In 1999, an attempt at rapprochement between the civilian governments in Islamabad and New Delhi – referred to the Lahore bus diplomacy – was derailed after Pakistani military-backed militants launched attacks in the Kargil area of Kashmir, leading both countries to war for the fourth time

The attack also took place when US Vice President JD Vance was visiting India, suggesting it was timed to draw international attention to the Kashmir issue while the spotlight was on India. Similarly, a terror attack took place in Kashmir shortly before President Clinton’s India visit in 2000.

Expect a robust Indian response and Pakistani retaliation

The Modi government has been tough on security since assuming power and Modi himself has been referred to as India’s ‘chowkidar’ (or guard) – akin to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ‘Mr Security’ moniker. The government has pledged to pursue terrorists wherever they may be (‘ghus ke marenge’). In a speech earlier this week, Modi stated that ‘India will identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers,’ and would pursue the perpetrators ‘to the ends of the earth’. A robust response by India should therefore be expected – including possible military action.

The Indian government has already taken the unprecedented step of suspending the 1960 Indus Water Treaty. This World Bank-brokered water-sharing agreement for rivers that traverse both countries has survived several periods of hostility between India and Pakistan. The Pakistani government has declared any attempt by India to divert waterflows in violation of the treaty an ‘act of war’. New Delhi has also ordered the closure of the Attari-Wagah border crossing, reduced the diplomatic presence in both countries, and imposed further restrictions on Pakistani nationals travelling to India.

Pakistan has responded in kind and has also closed its airspace to Indian-owned and operated airlines and suspended trade with India, including through third countries. It has also announced that it is suspending all bilateral agreements with India, including the Simla Agreement, which established the LoC. A breakdown of the ceasefire along the LoC and a broader tit-for-tat military escalation cannot be ruled out. Limited skirmishes have already been reported.

New Delhi had been lauding the return of stability to Kashmir in recent years. Elections held in the territory last autumn were largely peaceful with a high voter turnout. Investment and tourism have flourished. This progress will be derailed by the latest attack.

Beyond the impact on Kashmir and India–Pakistan relations, this incident will also have broader regional implications. South Asia is among the least economically integrated regions of the world. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has not held a summit in over a decade, attributed in large part to mistrust in the India–Pakistan relationship.

While New Delhi has tried to develop workaround solutions, such as promoting other regional initiatives, South Asian countries continue to lobby for the resumption of SAARC as the region’s most inclusive and all-encompassing regional forum. But the Pahalgam attack makes this even less likely to happen anytime soon.

For now, there are limited signs of external pressure on India to show restraint in its response to the attack. During previous periods of heightened tensions, the US has played a prominent role in de-escalating tensions, but not this time.

The US recently extradited a Canadian national convicted of complicity in a 2008 attack by Pakistan-based militants in Mumbai, something New Delhi had been demanding for many years. While this demonstrates the Trump administration’s more forthcoming approach to working with India on anti-terrorism cooperation, the US is unlikely to get involved beyond possible intelligence sharing.

Without significant international pressure to de-escalate, the only real restraints on both parties are concerns of a possible nuclear escalation and the impact of a conflict on their economies.

Source: Chatham House

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Michelle

Political

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

The foreign ministry of China has called on Washington to cease misleading the public about the status of bilateral tariff negotiations. Guo Jiakun, a spokesperson for the ministry, stated in a press briefing that China and the United States are not currently engaged in discussions or consultations regarding the tariff issue.

This statement comes after U.S. President Donald Trump claimed on Thursday that trade talks between the two nations were in progress. However, both China’s foreign and commerce ministries have denied the existence of such negotiations.

In addition, Guo mentioned that he was not aware of any plans by China to exempt tariffs on certain U.S. imports. The recent exchange of remarks between Beijing and Washington has added to the uncertainty about the commencement and possibility of talks on high tariffs imposed on each other’s goods.

Source: Investing

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Catherine Richards

Stocks

China–U.S. Trade War

U.S. stock index futures rose Friday as investors piled into technology and artificial intelligence stocks following strong earnings from Google owner Alphabet, with the tone also helped by the de-escalation of trade tensions.

At 05:20 ET (09:20 GMT), Dow Jones Futures gained 12 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 Futures rose 18 points, or 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures climbed 60 points, or 0.3%.

The main Wall Street indices closed Thursday with sold gains, putting them on a three-day winning streak and on course for a positive week.

As of Thursday’s close, the S&P 500 has a week-to-date gain of nearly 4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up more than 2% and the NASDAQ Composite is more than 5% higher.

Easing of trade tensions

Sentiment has received a boost Friday following a report that China is considering giving an exemption to some U.S. products to its steep retaliatory tariffs and is asking businesses to identify goods that could be eligible.

Citing a source close to the matter, Reuters said a taskforce from China’s Ministry of Commerce is putting together a list of items that might be exempted and asking companies to submit their own requests.

Investors had already been encouraged by indications that U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration may be softening its stance towards Beijing. Trump has made China a central target of his aggressive tariff agenda, raising levies on the world’s second-largest economy to at least 145%.

On the economic calendar, the final reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey is set to be released. The preliminary data showed that households had a deteriorating view of the economy and expected higher inflation due in large part to the global trade tensions.

Alphabet surges on strong earnings

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) shares rallied strongly premarket, after the tech giant reported clocked much stronger than expected earnings for the first quarter and announced a $70 billion buyback.

The company also reaffirmed its ambitious AI development plans, offering more confidence that AI-driven demand for chips and data centers will persist. The company is among Wall Street’s biggest spenders on AI.

Still, Alphabet did flag some potential headwinds from macroeconomic uncertainty, while growth in its ad business revenue, which is its biggest moneymaker, also shrank from the prior quarter .

But Alphabet’s earnings set a strong precedent for other major Wall Street tech stocks, especially those with heavy exposure to AI.

That said, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) slid 5% as weak guidance offset consensus-beating earnings, with the struggling chipmaker also flagging heightened concerns over macro headwinds from a trade war.

Earnings continue to flow

A barrage of company earnings are due in the coming weeks, including from tech giants Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), although the focus is likely to be more on guidance for the current year, especially in the face of heightened economic uncertainty.

Other key companies like AutoNation (NYSE:AN), Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE:CL), AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV), Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) and Centene (NYSE:CNC) are set to report their quarterly results before the bell on Friday.

Oil heads for weekly drop

Oil prices edged higher, but the market was headed for a weekly decline amid concerns about oversupply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Both the Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude contracts were set to decline nearly 2% this week after Reuters reported that several oil producing nations in the OPEC cartel are pushing to accelerate output hikes in June, extending May’s surprise boost, as internal disputes over quota compliance deepen.

OPEC and allies like Russia, a group known as OPEC+, will meet on May 5 to finalize their plans for June output levels.

Source: Investing

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Glendon

Forex

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

Aggressive U.S. tariff announcements could end up denting consumer prices rather than fueling inflationary pressures, European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann told Bloomberg News.

Speaking to Bloomberg in Washington, where he is attending the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings, Holzmann said that broader uncertainty around the Trump administration’s erratic tariff plans has left upcoming ECB decisions on interest rates "completely open."

Holzmann added that policymakers do not known "where we’ll end up," but noted that he agreed with ECB President Christine Lagarde’s recent assessment that the net impact of the levies seems to be deflationary rather than driving up prices.

The comments come after the ECB, which has slashed borrowing costs seven times since last June, is considering its next policy moves against a backdrop of widespread concern over the effect of Trump’s tariffs. Markets are currently pricing in two more quarter-point reductions before the end of 2025, as well as a 60% chance of a third, Bloomberg reported.

Earlier this month, Trump unveiled elevated duties on many countries, citing the need to rebalance perceived unfair trade practices, reshore manufacturing jobs, and boost government revenue. However, following deep ructions in stock and bond markets, Trump announced a 90-day delay to the tariffs, and has suggested that the White House is looking to secure dozens of trade deals with individual nations.

Economists have flagged that Trump’s tariffs stand to push up inflation and weigh on growth in the U.S., and potentially spread to other parts of the global economy. Businesses, meanwhile, have warned that uncertainty around the on-and-off levies has made it difficult to plan out future investment decisions.

Holzmann said that he anticipates this lack of clarity "created by the U.S. will persist" beyond the 90-day postponement, adding that there will be "scars in the economy" even if Trump ends up lowering the tariffs.