The Day Ahead: Big Tech Results and Tariff Headlines Move Markets Today

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

Summary:

Markets remain volatile as investors eye Big Tech earnings and possible tariff relief for automakers. Strong corporate results and dip-buying support sentiment, while key economic data may trigger further sector shifts.

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures were mixed early Tuesday following a volatile session to start the week. The S&P 500 ended Monday flat (+0.1%), while the Dow gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.1%. All three indexes traded sharply lower intraday—both the S&P and Nasdaq were down more than 1% at session lows—before reversing higher into the close.

Traders appear to be treating dips as buying opportunities, bolstered by ajamesjamesjapositive start to earnings season and speculation over potential tariff relief for automakers under a possible Trump administration. Auto stocks caught a bid Monday after reports suggested Trump may ease tariffs on foreign car parts. Roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies report this week, with Big Tech set to take center stage midweek.

Key Economic Releases

Tuesday (Apr 29)

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (13:00 GMT)

Conference Board Consumer Confidence (14:00 GMT)

JOLTS Job Openings (14:00 GMT)

These reports could move markets, especially consumer confidence and JOLTS, as traders assess demand strength and labor market tightness heading into key earnings.

Notable Earnings

Earnings are front-loaded this week. Tuesday’s schedule features a wide swath of sectors, with attention on:

General Motors (GM) – Beat Q1 EPS ($2.78 vs. $2.74 est) and revenue ($44.02B vs. $43.05B) but pulled guidance due to tariff-related uncertainty. Shares fell 2%.

Coca-Cola (KO) – Reports before the bell, est. EPS $0.72

Pfizer (PFE) – Reports before the bell, est. EPS $0.67

PayPal (PYPL) – Est. EPS $1.16

Meta Platforms (META) – Reports Wednesday

Microsoft (MSFT) – Reports Wednesday

Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) – Due Thursday

Names like Booking Holdings, Starbucks, Visa, and Spotify also report throughout the week, with traders watching consumer spending trends and cloud/digital demand.

Central Bank Activity

No major Fed policy decisions are expected, but Fed commentary may influence expectations:

No Fed speeches or Beige Book scheduled in the notes provided this week.

The Day Ahead Outlook

With about 36% of S&P 500 companies already reported and 73% beating EPS estimates, corporate earnings remain the primary catalyst. That said, tariff-related headlines and consumer-focused economic data could stir sector-specific moves, especially in autos and retail. Traders will be watching Big Tech closely midweek for guidance on AI spending, cloud growth, and margins.

Despite lingering macro headwinds, earnings strength and dip-buying have kept bulls in control. Key risk events include GM’s tariff commentary, consumer confidence data, and results from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon.

Source: fxempire

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Glendon

Economic

Stocks

Forex

World stocks and the dollar nudged up on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump's administration said it planned to reduce the impact of auto tariffs, a further sign of flexibility on a trade policy that has wreaked havoc on markets in April.

Market focus also turned to early signs of the impact tariff pain is having in terms of economic data and the latest company earnings.

Ahead of the Wall Street open, which stock futures suggested would be firmer, General Motors (GM.N), opens new tab pulled its forecast for the year, reflecting the uncertain effects of Trump's trade war on the industry, even as it reported strong quarterly results.

Canada's dollar dipped against a broadly-firm U.S. currency as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals retained power in Monday's election, but fell short of the majority government he had wanted to help him negotiate tariffs with Trump.

Sentiment across stock markets was generally positive after the U.S. said it would move to reduce the impact of duties imposed on foreign parts in domestically manufactured cars, and keep tariffs on vehicles made abroad from stacking up on other duties.

"There is a focus on the tariff news getting less worse but there's also a focus on hard data and whether the market is right to worry about a recession," said State Street Global Markets' head of macro strategy Michael Metcalfe.

First-quarter U.S. GDP and April jobs figures are due out this week.

While the S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab has recovered much of its early April losses after some rollback on Trump's tariffs, it looks set to end the month down around 1.5% in its third straight month of falls.

European stocks rallied around 0.25%, with plenty of earnings to digest. HSBC (HSBA.L), opens new tab launched a $3 billion share buyback after reporting a 25% fall in first-quarter profit, opens new tab and Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE), opens new tab posted a 39% rise in first-quarter profit.

In other signs of trade-war pain, sports car maker Porsche cut its 2025 outlook on weakness in China and U.S. tariffs, and United Parcel Service (UPS.N), opens new tab reported a fall in quarterly revenue as U.S. trade policies began cooling the demand of shipping.

Mega-caps Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab, Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab, Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab and Meta Platforms (META.O), opens new tab report later this week.

In Asia, Japanese markets were closed for a holiday, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng (.HSI), opens new tab was little changed and the mainland blue-chip index (.CSI300), opens new tab fell 0.2%.

TRADE

Markets were rattled overnight when U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC it was "up to China to de-escalate" tariffs and there are growing worries that unless there is a breakthrough, permanent damage will be wrought on supply chains.

China has moved to make some exemptions but has held off on stimulus.

"A true de-escalation (in the U.S.-China trade war) is some time away, in our view," Sat Duhra, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum on Tuesday.

"Someone will blink first, and it is likely to be led by the market as we have seen in the U.S."

JP Morgan analysts said the clock was ticking on hard data resilience, highlighting a 42% peak-to-trough slump in China shipments to the U.S. in the past 10 days, which - if sustained - would reverberate through supply chains.

"A worrying decoupling of U.S.-China trade ... now looks to be underway, and we expect the damage to build in coming weeks and months."

This chart depicts the exchange rate of USD/CAD from Nov. 1, 2024 to April 29, 2025 (Data as of April 29, 2025 08:47 a.m. GMT)

DOLLAR FIRMS

The dollar rose against other major currencies, adding almost 0.5% to 142.66 yen . The euro slipped 0.4% to $1.1377, while sterling fell 0.4% to $1.3386 , .

Still, the euro is up 5% in April, set for its largest monthly rise on the dollar in nearly three years, while the greenback's 7% drop on the safe-haven Swiss franc is the largest in a decade.

Canada's dollar traded at around 1.3845 per U.S. dollar , down 0.1% on the day after Monday's election left the Liberal Party short of a majority in parliament.

"A thin parliament lead is hardly positive news for a country’s currency, but Canadian dollar losses have been quite limited in size," ING analysts said in a note.

Elsewhere, gold slipped almost 1% to $3,313 an ounce as the dollar rallied , while Brent crude fell almost 2% to $64.64 a barrel.

Treasury yields edged up in London trade, rising 1.3 basis points to 4.23% .

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Commodity

U.S. Oil Production Reaches Its Zenith

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), America is set to peak its oil production at around 14 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027, after years of dominance as the world's largest producer. This milestone, driven heavily by shale (LTO) production from the Permian Basin, signals both an achievement and the beginning of a slow decline. Production is expected to drop to about 13.8 million bpd by 2030 and further to 11.9 million bpd by 2040 due to resource depletion and rising costs.

The U.S.'s ascent to the top began with the shale revolution, revitalizing output through hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technologies after decades of stagnation. However, the rapid maturity of shale fields and limited new discoveries indicate that growth has structural limits, setting the stage for future supply tightness.

Global Competition and New Supply Dynamics

Despite America's record-breaking production, few countries can match its levels. Saudi Arabia and Russia remain key competitors but are constrained by geopolitics and less responsive production models. Saudi Arabia has even canceled its plan to raise output capacity to 13 million bpd by 2027, while Russia faces sanctions and logistical challenges due to the Ukraine conflict.

Meanwhile, non-OPEC growth, notably in Canada, Iraq, and China, remains relatively modest. Global oil supply concentration remains high among a few major players, increasing market vulnerability to political and economic shocks.

Demand Shifts Challenge Oil Market Stability

Global oil demand is expected to peak around 2030, influenced by the surge in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, particularly in China, and improved fuel efficiency standards. As transportation shifts away from oil dependency, traditional demand pillars weaken, limiting future price surges even in tight supply conditions.

However, emerging markets in the Global South continue to show robust demand growth, creating a bifurcated market landscape: declining demand in developed nations versus rising consumption in developing ones.

Risks of Future Price Volatility

The convergence of slowing U.S. production growth, uncertain OPEC+ policies, and fragile global demand recovery paints a precarious picture for oil prices.If U.S. oil prices fall below the breakeven threshold of around $60/barrel, especially for aging shale plays, American producers may be forced to slash drilling activities, laying off workers and reducing supply abruptly. This could trigger sharp price rebounds, destabilizing the market.

On the flip side, if Saudi Arabia and Russia adopt aggressive production increases for geopolitical reasons, it could flood the market with cheap oil, pushing prices down, hurting EV competitiveness, and destabilizing emerging economies dependent on energy imports.

Geopolitical and Structural Risks Amplify Uncertainty

Beyond basic supply and demand factors, decisions increasingly shaped by non-market considerations—such as U.S.-China trade tensions, OPEC+ political strategies, and Western sanctions against Russia—introduce heightened risks.A future scenario where Saudi Arabia or Russia weaponizes oil supply for strategic gains could lead to sudden price shocks, especially as global spare capacity remains thin.

The world stands at the brink of a new era of oil market instability. While U.S. oil production has provided a buffer in recent years, its approaching peak combined with fragile global supply-demand dynamics suggests greater price volatility ahead.Policymakers, investors, and businesses must prepare for an oil market characterized by sharper swings, geopolitical sensitivities, and a gradual but inevitable structural transition away from traditional fossil fuels.

Source: EIA

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Stocks

Futures tied to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were slightly lower on Tuesday as investors assessed a slew of corporate earnings and awaited economic data for more clarity on the impact of U.S. tariffs.

Supporting futures linked to the blue-chip Dow, Honeywell jumped 5.3% after posting a rise in adjusted profit for the first quarter. United Parcel Service, a bellwether for the economy, gained 2.6% in premarket trading after its quarterly results.

Meanwhile, U.S. officials said President Donald Trump's administration will move to reduce the impact of his automotive tariffs by alleviating some duties imposed on foreign parts in domestically manufactured cars, and keeping tariffs on cars made abroad from piling on top of other ones.

General Motors slipped 2.8% after the automaker pulled its annual forecast due to tariff uncertainty. Shares of automakers Ford and Tesla dipped marginally, reversing earlier gains.

More clarity on the state of U.S.-China trade negotiations was still awaited.

Consumer confidence and JOLTs job openings are also scheduled for the day, while U.S. first-quarter GDP and nonfarm payrolls are expected later in the week.

Four of the "Magnificent Seven" group of megacap stocks - Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon.com - will report quarterly results this week.

"It shouldn't really be especially surprising that participants took something of a 'wait-and-see' approach to proceedings ... with conviction lacking across the board, and markets largely meandering along in a relatively directionless fashion," said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone.

At 06:47 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 104.00 points, or 0.26%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 7 points, or 0.13%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 30.75 points, or 0.16%.

The S&P 500 closed Monday with marginal gains, rising for a fifth straight session in its best winning streak since November. Indexes have clawed back some losses this month on hopes for a de-escalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

Still, all three major indexes remain down for the year, with the S&P 500 on track to fall about 1.5% this month.

First-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to rise 10.9% from a year ago. That is higher than an early-April estimate for a 7.8% rise, but many companies have warned of the new tariffs impacting their outlook.

NXP Semiconductors NV fell 8.5% after the company only slightly beat expectations for revenue, and announced CEO Kurt Sievers would retire by the end of the year and insider Rafael Sotomayor would succeed him.

U.S.-listed shares of Spotify Technologies plunged 8% after it forecast current-quarter operating profit below Wall Street estimates.

Source: Reuters

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Michelle

Economic

Forex

The euro is slightly lower on Tuesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1392, down 0.31% on the day.

German consumer climate hits 6-month high

German consumer confidence remains weak but showed some improvement in April, rising to -20.6. This was higher than the revised -24.3 in March and easily beat the market estimate of -26.0. This was the highest reading since Nov. 2024.

Consumers remain anxious about the negative impact of US tariffs but the domestic political situation has stabilized as a new government is taking shape.

Business confidence also improved in April, rising to 86.9 from 86.7 and beating expectations. This was the highest level since July 2024, as the business sector has reacted positively to the government’s pledge to increase spending on infrastructure and defense. As with consumers, businesses expressed concern about the escalation in global trade tensions.

Markets eye German inflation, retail sales

Germany releases the April inflation on Wednesday. CPI is expected to remain at 0.4% m/m. Annualized, CPI is projected to ease to 2.1% from 2.3% in March and 2.6% in February. Germany’s retail sales are expected to decline by 0.4% m/m in March, after a strong gain of 0.7% a month earlier. A drop in inflation and retail sales would support the case for the European Central Bank continuing lower interest rates.

In the US, the focus will be on employment data in the second half of the week. JOLTS Job Openings, which will be released later today, is expected to ease to 7.48 million from 7.56 million. This would mark a second consecutive deceleration and point to a weakening labor market.

All eyes are on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls, which surprised on the upside last month with a gain of 228 thousand, blowing past the forecast of 140 thousand. The market estimate for April nonfarm payrolls stands at 135 thousand.

EUR/USD Technical

EUR/USD is testing support at 1.1391. Below, there is support at 1.1358
1.1454 and 1.1487 are the next resistance lines

EURUSD 4-Hour Chart, April 29, 2025

Source: ACTIONFOREX

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Glendon

Economic

Stocks

General Motors and Volvo Cars abandoned their guidance, Adidas warned of price hikes and Porsche and Electrolux cut their full-year outlooks on Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war continued to send shivers through the corporate world.

The barrage of negative news will add to evidence that trade chaos is taking a major toll on companies, forcing many to cut spending or consider moving production, up-ending supply chains and making it tough to plan beyond the immediate term.

The uncertainty unleashed by Trump's imposition of sweeping tariffs, followed by the temporary suspension of some, is also hurting consumers, who are spending less, raising fears of a sharp economic downturn in the United States and beyond.

World stocks and the dollar edged up on Tuesday after Trump's administration said it planned to reduce the impact of some auto tariffs, but markets are far from recovering the heavy losses suffered after the tariffs were outlined on April 2. {MKTS/GLOB]

Tuesday's company earnings announcements showed trade policy continuing to wreak havoc.

"We believe the future impact of tariffs could be significant," GM (GM.N), opens new tab Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson said on a call with media after the U.S. carmaker pulled its forecast for the year.

"We're telling folks not to rely on the prior guidance, and we'll update when we have more information around tariffs."

German sports car maker Porsche (P911_p.DE), opens new tab said it had suffered a hit of at least 100 million euros ($114 million) across April and May as a result of U.S. levies on car imports.

"There is so much volatility, there is so much information coming in, some of which is reliable, some of which is not," said Porsche AG CFO Jochen Breckner.

He said that if tariffs remain in place, Porsche will have to pass them on - at least in part - to customers via price increases.

The tariffs are expected to raise car prices for U.S. consumers by thousands of dollars, reducing demand and piling pressure on an automobile industry already struggling with a slowing transition to electric vehicles.

Porsche and Volvo Cars, which also withdrew its guidance for the next two years, are among the most exposed to tariffs of 25% on car imports - Porsche has no U.S. production and Volvo ships most of the cars it sells in the United States from Europe.

That means Porsche would gain little relief from a possible softening or limiting of duties on foreign parts used in U.S.-made cars and tariffs on cars made abroad.

"We have to wait until the talks are finalised," Breckner said, referring to talks between the European Union and the Trump administration.

About 40 companies around the world have either withdrawn or cut their forecasts in the first two weeks of the first-quarter earnings season, a Reuters analysis shows, including U.S. airlines Delta (DAL.N), opens new tab, computer gadget maker Logitech (LOGN.S), opens new tab and drinks giant Diageo (DGE.L), opens new tab.

Adidas CEO Bjorn Gulden said that "in a normal world" the company would have hiked its revenue and profit guidance after last week's quarterly results, but that tariff uncertainty prevented it from doing so.

"Given the uncertainty around the negotiations between the U.S. and the different exporting countries, we do not know what the final tariffs will be. Therefore, we cannot make any 'final' decisions on what to do," Gulden said on Tuesday.

Trump announced hefty tariffs on most nations in early April and has since then alternated between retracting some while threatening additional industry-specific tariffs on trucking, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, among others.

COST-CUTTING

HSBC (HSBA.L), opens new tab said fallout from the global trade war could hit loan demand and credit quality, the clearest warning yet from a major bank on how the ripple effects of Trump's tariff actions could hurt lenders.

Other companies are scrambling to cut costs.

Volvo Cars (VOLCARb.ST), opens new tab announced plans for spending cuts of about $1.8 billion and said it would restructure its U.S. operations as its first-quarter profit tumbled, sending shares down over 10%.

German engine manufacturer MTU Aero Engines (MTXGn.DE), opens new tab said late on Monday it was looking at ways to mitigate the impact of tariffs estimated to be in the mid-to-high double-digit million euros range this year.

Joining a chorus of household names from Nestle (NESN.S), opens new tab and Unilever (ULVR.L), opens new tab to Chipotle (CMG.N), opens new tab, Electrolux (ELUXb.ST), opens new tab blamed weaker consumer sentiment as it lowered its North America market outlook and reported a smaller first-quarter profit than expected.

"Consumers shifted to lower price points," the Swedish appliances maker said, adding that shoppers also postponed purchases of discretionary goods. Its shares were down more than 10% in morning trade, among the biggest fallers in Europe.

Danish brewer Carlsberg's (CARLb.CO), opens new tab CEO Jacob Aarup-Andersen echoed that sentiment.

"History tells us that prolonged uncertainty will feed into consumers' purchasing decisions," he told Reuters.

($1 = 0.8785 euros)

Reporting by Christoph Steitz in Frankfurt, Marie Mannes in Stockholm, Helen Reid in London and Paolo Laudani and Linda Pasquini in Gdansk;Writing by Josephine Mason; Editing by Catherine Evans

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Radical Overhaul of U.S. Government Operations

Donald Trump's return to the White House on January 20 initiated an aggressive agenda to fulfill his campaign promises of "Making America Great Again." Central to this vision was the creation of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk, intended to slash government costs and streamline operations. However, instead of efficiency, DOGE's aggressive cuts led to administrative chaos, delays in decision-making, increased operational costs, and widespread resignations across critical sectors such as science and technology.

While DOGE claims savings of $160 billion, independent evaluations suggest that the true cost to American taxpayers may be as high as $135 billion for the current fiscal year. Over 100,000 federal employees were either fired, reassigned, or placed on administrative leave, severely weakening the administrative core of the U.S. government. Simultaneously, Trump’s attempt to abolish the Department of Education faces legislative hurdles, indicating that even within a Republican-controlled Congress, full institutional dismantling remains challenging.

Trade Policies Upending Global Order

President Trump's approach to trade has been characterized by unprecedented aggressiveness. On April 2, he announced sweeping retaliatory tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on more than 180 countries and territories, using trade deficit figures as the primary benchmark for policy. The most severe escalation occurred against China, with tariffs surging to 145%, and up to 245% on specific Chinese products.

The effects have been profound: sharp disruptions in global supply chains, plummeting U.S. and global stock markets, and growing fears of a full-fledged trade war. Although Trump eventually paused new tariffs for 90 days to allow negotiations (excluding China), the backlog of pending trade agreements and mounting administrative burden suggest that long-term resolution remains distant.

Ironically, despite escalating protectionism, the administration claims that foreign investors have pledged over $5 trillion in new U.S. investments—a figure met with skepticism given the volatile environment and limited corroboration.

Shockwaves Across U.S. Foreign Policy

In foreign affairs, Trump's actions have been even more jarring. From the controversial ambition to purchase Greenland and threats to annex Canada as the 51st state, to blunt demands that NATO members raise defense spending to 5% of GDP, Trump’s initiatives have strained alliances.

Efforts to mediate the Russia-Ukraine conflict have similarly faltered. Although Trump pledged to end the war within his first day in office, recent admissions suggest that the promise was an exaggeration. A brief meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky at Pope Francis’ funeral offered a glimmer of diplomatic engagement, but substantive progress remains elusive.

Internal and Global Sentiment Turning Negative

Public dissatisfaction within the U.S. has intensified. CNN polls reveal that 59% of Americans believe Trump's policies have worsened the economy, up from 51% in March. Similarly, 60% report higher living costs due to new trade policies, and only 12% feel any benefit from his agenda. Reuters/Ipsos surveys confirm these trends, with economic approval ratings for Trump slipping from 42% in January to 37% by late April.

Internationally, Trump's unpredictability is reshaping alliances and emboldening adversaries. Reuters observed that Trump's actions are dismantling post-World War II global order structures that the U.S. originally championed, while CNN warned that the world teeters on the edge of crises due to Washington’s erratic new posture.

Trump’s first 100 days of his second presidency illustrate a governance style rooted in disruption, aimed at overturning established norms domestically and globally. While he energizes a core political base with nationalist rhetoric and bold reforms, the broader consequences—economic volatility, fractured alliances, and deepening public skepticism—suggest that the most turbulent days may still lie ahead. The trajectory set by Trump 2.0 will be closely watched, particularly as it could shape not only America's midterm elections but also global geopolitical stability for years to come.