Thai Rates Hit 6-month High on Floods, China Demand Hopes; India, Vietnam Steady

Forex

Economic

Summary:

Thai prices at over 6-month high on China deal, supply concerns; Rupee's slide to record low offsets rising Indian paddy prices; Vietnam's November rice exports falls 49.1% from a year earlier; Bangladesh issues tender to buy 50,000 tons of rice.

Thailand's rice prices rose to their highest in more than six months on flood-driven supply worries and expectations of stronger demand after China pledged to buy rice, while rates in India and Vietnam remained unchanged.

Thailand's 5% broken rice (RI-THBKN5-P1) was quoted at $400 per tonne, up from $375 last week. Prices were at their highest level since May 29.

Traders expect demand to rise as China moves to finalize a rice deal later this month, following its pledge to buy 500,000 tonnes of rice from Thailand.

"The deal with China and the prospect of more purchase from the Philippines makes the market livelier," a Bangkok-based rice trader said.

There has also been a decrease in supply because of recent flooding in many parts of the country, the trader added.

Indian rice export prices held steady this week, as the rupee's slide toward a record low helped traders offset rising paddy prices in the local market.

India's 5% broken parboiled variety was quoted this week at $347-$354 per metric ton, unchanged from last week. Indian 5% broken white rice was priced at $340 to $345 per metric ton this week.

Paddy prices are staying high because the government is buying at the increased minimum support price, which is also pushing traders to offer higher rates, said a Kolkata-based exporter.

The Indian rupee slid near a record low against the dollar on Thursday, lifting traders' rupee returns from overseas sales.

Vietnam's 5% broken rice (RI-VNBKN5-P1) was offered at $365-$370 per metric ton on Thursday, unchanged from a week ago, according to traders.

"Sales are slow amid weak demand," a trader based in Ho Chi Minh City said.

Vietnam's rice exports in November fell 49.1% from a year earlier to 358,000 tons, according to government data.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh approved the purchase of 50,000 tonnes of rice through an international open tender. The government continues to struggle to keep rice prices in check despite good stocks and yields.

Source: TradingView

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Samantha Luan

Political

Economic

The local rebel army says 10 patients in the hospital died

At least 31 people were killed and dozens of others injured in Myanmar after an airstrike by the ruling junta hit a major hospital in the western state of Rakhine, according to witness, aid workers and the Arakan Army rebel group.

The hospital was struck by bombs dropped by a military aircraft late on Wednesday, a spokesperson for the Arakan Army said Thursday. The rebel group largely controls the state but is still battling the military junta in parts.

"The Mrauk U General Hospital was completely destroyed," Arakan Army's Khine Thu Kha told Reuters. "The high number of casualties occurred because the hospital took a direct hit."

Several of those killed were patients. Around 70 others were injured, the ethnic minority separatist group said.

The local rebel group says the hospital was overflowing with patients at the time of the strikeImage: AFP

"The terrorist military council's air force dropped two bombs using a jet fighter," the rebel group said in a post on Telegram.

Aid worker Wai Hun Aung said the hospital was in complete ruins and bodies of victims lay on the ground, sharing unverified images of the scene with news agency Reuters. "The remaining patients have been moved to a safe location," he said.

The strike comes weeks before the military's set polling date for elections, December 28.

The junta is now fighting to take back territory lost to resistance groups, while the rebels have pledged to block elections in territories they control.

What you need to know about the conflict in Myanmar

The Arakan Army has been fighting the Myanmar government long before the junta overthrew Aung San Suu Kyi's democratically-elected government in 2021.

· In the subsequent civil war, the Arakan Army has emerged as one of the most powerful groups opposed to the military junta

· The junta has the only air force in Myanmar, which it is increasingly using to target rebel strongholds

· Between January to November this year, the junta conducted 2,165 air strikes according to the Armed Conflict Location Event Data Project, up from 1,716 airstrikes last year

· Several rebel groups, formed after the 2021 coup, have combined forces with ethnic armies like the Arakan Army to combat the military junta

· The Arakan Army has pushed the junta out of 14 of Rakhine state's 17 townships since 2023, according to its spokesperson

Source: DW

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Michelle

Forex

Economic

A barometer of South African business confidence surged in November, but the organisation that compiles the data cautioned against reading too much into it, pointing out that some indicators of tangible economic activity were still lagging.

The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry's Business Confidence Index jumped to 132.3 in November from 123.8 in October.

The business chamber releases the index every two months and said the increase was mainly driven by greater overseas tourist numbers.

Other drivers were mostly linked to "global economic and financial market assessments (rather) than local real economic activity," it said in a statement.

The real economy refers to the production and use of physical goods and services, encompassing sectors like manufacturing and agriculture, rather than financial transactions.

"It (is) essential that real economic activity matches up with financial expediency for business confidence to steady up and be sustainable," the business chamber said.

South Africa's economic growth slowed in the third quarter, to 0.5% from the previous quarter's 0.9% expansion.

For 2025 as a whole the National Treasury predicts modest growth of 1.2%.

Source: Investing

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Glendon

Forex

Economic

The dollar found support on Thursday from a broad risk-off mood in markets, but failed to recoup its overnight losses against peers such as the euro, yen and sterling after the Federal Reserve delivered a less hawkish outlook than some had expected.

Investors in Asia dumped risk assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies after disappointing earnings from U.S. cloud computing giant Oraclereignited fears that surging AI infrastructure costs could outpace profitability.

That helped stem the safe-haven dollar's slide, which initially faced selling pressure after remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell surprised some who had been positioned for a more hawkish tone.

The risk selloff petered out somewhat in Europe, however, to leave the euro at $1.1704, steady on the day at a near two-month high, after a 0.6% gain on Wednesday. Sterling was at $1.13374, also steady after a 0.65% rise on Wednesday.,

The dollar also dipped versus the yen. It was down 0.14% at 155.8 yen after a 0.56% drop the previous day.

The Fed lowered rates on Wednesday by 25 basis points but, as the move was widely expected, the reaction reflected much more the broader messaging, projections and the voting split.

"Investors were bracing for a hawkish rate cut. In the end, there were only two dissenters to the cut and the Fed kept a rate cut in their median forecast for 2026," said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING.

"Equally, it seems that Chair Powell was reluctant to be boxed into the view that the Fed was now on a pause," he said.

Heading into the Fed meeting, traders had been wondering whether they would get a similar message to those received from the Australian central bank chief and from an influential European Central Bank policymaker suggesting that their next moves would be rate hikes.

Also weighing on the dollar, U.S. Treasuries attracted bids after the Fed announced it would start buying short-dated government bonds from December 12 to help manage market liquidity levels, with an initial round totalling around $40 billion in Treasury bills.

AUSSIE AND CRYPTO HIT

However, while the largest currencies were still focused on the Fed, the most risk-sensitive parts of the market were still being swayed by the weakness in tech stocks.

Bitcoin, often viewed as a barometer of risk appetite, briefly slid back below the $90,000 level, and was last hovering at that point, down 2.4%. Etherwas down more than 4% at $3,200.

"Even with a softer Fed outlook, the market is still working through the excess leverage from October, so reactions to macro signals are slower than usual," Gracie Lin, OKX's Singapore CEO, said of the fall in crypto prices.

"The 25-basis-point cut was already priced in... and the wider macro and geopolitical backdrop is still uncertain. All of that keeps the immediate response muted."

The Australian dollaralso got caught in the flight from risk and fell 0.5% to $0.6644.

Also hurting the Aussie was data showing that Australian employment in November fell by the most in nine months.

The Swiss franc firmed slightly after the Swiss National Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0%, and said a recent agreement to reduce U.S. tariffs on Swiss goods had improved the economic outlook, even as inflation has somewhat undershot expectations.

The franc last traded at 0.7992 per dollarafter hitting its strongest level in nearly a month. It was at 0.9348 to the euro.

Source: TradingView

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Fed Cuts Rates But Warns of Caution Ahead

The U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.5%–3.75% its third cut of the year but emphasized restraint going forward. Two voting members, Jeffrey Schmid and Austan Goolsbee, opposed the cut, favoring a hold instead, while one called for a more aggressive reduction. This division reflected broader uncertainty about the future policy path, and the Fed's "dot plot" revealed that officials anticipate just one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027.

Chair Jerome Powell's remarks during the press conference struck a cautious tone. While reiterating confidence in the U.S. economy, he offered no guidance on further cuts, instead stating, “I don’t think that a rate hike is anybody’s base case at this point.” This statement signaled that while the Fed is not looking to tighten again, future easing will be measured and data-dependent.

Liquidity Injection Surprises Market, Lifts Sentiment

Despite the hawkish signals, markets rallied. The unexpected catalyst was the Fed’s announcement that it will begin purchasing $40 billion in Treasury bills starting Friday a move interpreted by investors as stealth quantitative easing. Though framed as a liquidity management measure, this purchase program will expand the Fed’s balance sheet, increasing the money supply and helping to stabilize short-term interest rates in the financial system.

This injection of liquidity appeared to override the restrained rate path in investors' minds, particularly at a time when year-end funding stress can strain repo markets and short-term borrowing costs. As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.1% on Wednesday, with similar strength across other major indexes.

Economic Forecast Raised as Fed Reaffirms Resilience

In another positive development, the Fed upgraded its 2026 GDP forecast from 1.8% to 2.3%, citing sustained economic strength. Powell described the U.S. economy as “extraordinary,” reinforcing confidence in consumer and business resilience despite inflation and global volatility.

The combination of no immediate threat of rate hikes, a liquidity injection, and a rosier economic forecast supported risk-on sentiment. Investors began to anticipate a “Santa Claus rally,” with José Torres of Interactive Brokers suggesting the S&P 500 could surpass the 7,000 milestone in the coming weeks.

Earnings and Global AI Bets Add Market Complexity

While monetary policy buoyed equities, corporate earnings painted a more mixed picture. Oracle reported 14% year-over-year revenue growth but missed expectations, with shares plunging over 11% in after-hours trading. The results despite a strong AI backlog raised doubts about how quickly AI infrastructure investments will yield profits, dragging down related tech stocks.

At the same time, AI investment momentum continued globally. In India, Microsoft and Amazon committed over $50 billion to AI development within a 24-hour span, citing the country's deep talent pool, abundant resources, and massive market potential. These commitments reflect a broader shift in Big Tech’s geographic strategy, with India emerging as a critical hub for next-generation innovation.

European Defense Startups Ride AI Boom

In Europe, AI-driven defense startups are also enjoying tailwinds. Venture capital investment in this sector has surged to $4.3 billion since 2022 nearly quadruple the total from the previous four years. This trend follows NATO’s agreement to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP and a growing openness by the UK and German governments to adopt solutions from newer tech players like Anduril, which just completed the first flight of its unmanned drone YFQ-44A.

The surge in defense funding signals a significant alignment of state-led innovation policy and private capital, creating fertile ground for startups in high-tech defense and security applications.

The Fed’s latest rate cut may have arrived with cautious projections and internal dissent, but investors seized on the hidden dovish cues: renewed Treasury purchases, a dismissal of future hikes, and a brighter economic outlook. These developments, coupled with ongoing AI and defense investment narratives, have helped lift risk sentiment, potentially setting the stage for a strong year-end rally even as central bank officials remain wary of overcommitting to further easing. The mixed signals require careful navigation, but for now, markets are choosing to focus on what’s working.

Source: CNBC

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Tariff Surge Strikes at the Heart of India’s Export Strategy

Mexico’s latest policy move to hike import duties on automobiles to 50% starting next year presents a direct threat to India’s third-largest car export market. This decision, which targets countries without formal trade agreements such as India and China, undermines the current cost structure of Indian vehicle exports and could trigger a strategic rethink among top automakers like Volkswagen, Hyundai, Nissan, and Maruti Suzuki.

The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), which includes the most affected brands, had urged India’s Commerce Ministry to negotiate with Mexico before the tariff was finalized. However, despite industry lobbying, Mexico proceeded with the measure a move that mirrors a broader global shift toward protectionist trade policies, notably influenced by the U.S.

Volkswagen, Hyundai, and Nissan Among Most Exposed

According to trade data and the letter reviewed by Reuters, vehicles constitute nearly one-fifth of India’s $5.3 billion total exports to Mexico. Volkswagen’s Skoda Auto division is the most vulnerable, accounting for half of all Indian car shipments to the country. Hyundai exported $200 million worth of vehicles, followed by Nissan at $140 million and Suzuki at $120 million.

These exports predominantly consist of compact, sub-1-litre engine vehicles tailored for the Mexican domestic market not intended for re-export to the United States. Car makers have emphasized that these models do not directly compete with high-end vehicles produced in Mexico for the North American market, indicating that the tariff’s impact on local industry is marginal in nature. Nevertheless, the new trade barrier will drastically reduce the price competitiveness of Indian-origin vehicles.

Trade Disruption Undermines Economies of Scale and Margins

India's vehicle exports serve not only as a market-expansion strategy but also as a vital buffer for automakers managing slow domestic sales and pursuing economies of scale. The sudden tariff increase introduces significant uncertainty. With profit margins already thin on compact vehicles, a 50% tariff threatens to make India’s exports unviable in Mexico especially when competing against countries with established free trade agreements.

As automakers reassess their production plans and target markets, the tariff disruption could ripple through India’s broader manufacturing sector. Notably, Mexico has long served as a strategic destination for car makers looking to balance global production loads and optimize factory output.

Diplomatic Implications for India's Global Manufacturing Aspirations

The Mexican tariff spike raises strategic questions about India’s positioning in global supply chains. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has consistently marketed India as a cost-effective manufacturing alternative to China. However, the absence of a free trade agreement with Mexico combined with its exposure to external geopolitical pressure has exposed vulnerabilities in that narrative.

Mexico’s decision was partly influenced by U.S. pressure to curtail trade with China, but Indian automakers have become collateral damage. In this context, India’s failure to secure bilateral trade protections may limit its global industrial outreach, especially in strategically important markets like Latin America.

Industry Response and Uncertain Path Forward

At the time of reporting, Hyundai, Maruti Suzuki, and the Indian Commerce Ministry had not issued official responses. Nissan declined to comment. Piyush Arora, head of Volkswagen’s India operations, previously acknowledged Mexico’s importance, highlighting growing demand and strong traction for India-made models. But with the new tariffs, continued growth in the market may be untenable without a revised trade arrangement.

Automakers now face a dilemma: either absorb losses or divert exports to alternative regions. Both options carry operational and financial costs. India’s lack of diversified free trade agreements may increasingly limit export scalability, making policy negotiations critical moving forward.

Mexico’s steep tariff hike presents a clear and present risk to Indian automakers relying on Latin American markets. The development exposes a cause-and-effect cycle in which geopolitical pressures and trade fragmentation can severely disrupt emerging market strategies. Without policy intervention or diversified trade access, India’s aspirations to become a global export hub may encounter increasingly protectionist roadblocks. For automakers, the message is clear: overreliance on any single unprotected market carries growing risks in today’s volatile trade environment.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Glendon

Forex

Economic

The Swiss National Bank kept its interest rate at zero, judging that a weakened inflation outlook doesn't yet justify a return to negative borrowing costs.

The decision on Thursday marks the second quarterly result with an unchanged benchmark, and matched the forecasts of all 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Markets had also priced in only a very small chance of a cut.

"Inflation in recent months has been slightly lower than expected," the SNB said in a statement that showed reduced predictions for price growth for the next two years. "Although the conditional inflation forecast is somewhat lower in the short term than in September, there is only little change in the medium term. The forecast is within the range of price stability."

The Swiss franc held earlier gains to trade 0.1% higher at 0.9348 per euro after the decision. The currency gained 0.2% to 0.7986 per dollar, the highest since Nov. 19.

The outcome underscores how President Martin Schlegel and his colleagues are applying a higher bar to a move into negative territory than they would for a more conventional rate cut. With the franc touching recent decade-highs against the euro, and inflation at zero, the case for such a reduction under normal circumstances would have been more persuasive.

While the US Federal Reserve's own quarter-point move on the eve of the SNB decision might have provided another pressure point to consider — given that it will narrow the differential between each country's borrowing costs — the backdrop of rising global bond yields may have offered some comfort, as will the clouded prospects for US policy next year.

Faced with the trade-off between a feeble price outlook or taking a step of reintroducing the subzero policy that Switzerland had for seven years — a measure acknowledged to have hurt pensions, savers and the financial system — the SNB opted to stay steady this time round.

The Swiss central bank cut its inflation forecast to 0.3% next year and 0.6% in 2027, down from 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively. For this year, the central bank kept its projection of 0.2% unchanged.

Consumer-price growth has now turned out weaker than economists expected for three months in a row. It slowed to zero last month, making a pickup for the current quarter that had been anticipated by the SNB almost certainly unachievable.

One challenge there is the franc. It surged to a decade high against the euro last month before then paring some gains. The currency's strength weighs on prices by making imports cheaper.

The most recent driver of increases in the franc was the news that Switzerland had finally clinched a trade deal with the US after months of enduring the highest tariffs imposed on any advanced economy.

Given that backdrop, the SNB predicts growth of about 1% next year, compared with "just under" that number, as predicted in September.

Emboldening officials in their tolerance of weak inflation readings, or even negative outcomes, is an inflation target range of between zero and 2%, and the view that their current stance is expansive enough to stoke prices over time. Schlegel has also previously said that the SNB doesn't have to react to every piece of monthly data.

Policymakers have said that they're willing to cut rates below zero, though they would rather avoid such a step if they can. Schlegel and his two colleagues may offer further clues on that when they address reporters at 10 a.m. in Bern.

"The SNB will continue to monitor the situation and adjust its monetary policy if necessary, in order to ensure price stability," it said in the statement, reiterating its usual position.