Tariff uncertainty dominated Trump's first 100 days. The endgame is still cloudy.

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

Summary:

Trump’s first 100 days back in office saw major political shifts but little concrete progress, with tariff uncertainty, stalled trade talks, slow legislative advances, and declining approval ratings dominating the scene

President Trump's first 100 days back in office clearly transformed America's political landscape, but a range of big-ticket items are still in progress, with tariffs atop the list for markets.

The uncertainty there appears likely to stretch at least into the summer, with a series of conflicting statements from Trump and his aides in recent days providing little in the way of guidance.

Tariffs appear to also be the biggest drag on Trump's waning popularity, with a New York Times poll tracker showing the steady decline of the president's approval ratings, especially after "Liberation Day" on April 2 when he unveiled his reciprocal tariff plans.

Since then, Trump and his team have offered countless conflicting summaries of the latest on key trade issues. The uncertainty continued this past weekend ahead of the official 100-day marker on Tuesday.

Unclear as ever are how negotiations are going, what deescalation might look like, and even whether talks with China are underway.

"I've made 200 deals," Trump claimed in an interview with Time conducted last week. Two days later, he told reporters it would be "physically impossible" to negotiate many of the deals before a deadline this July.

In comments this past weekend, Trump appeared to pivot even further from a focus on deals to lower rates, saying tariff talks with foreign leaders are ongoing but suggesting tariffs could lead to tax cuts because "we're going to be taking in a tremendous amount of money."

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered a new summary of the approach on Sunday, telling ABC, "in game theory, it's called strategic uncertainty."

It's emblematic of Trump's approach that has increased the uncertainty around key economic issues that are nowhere near finality 100 days in.

And it's a dynamic being felt on a range of fronts from taxes, where an effort in Congress has been slowed, to the war in Ukraine, a fragile ceasefire in Gaza, and elsewhere.

As Trump has stretched his unilateral executive authority to new heights and signed new presidential actions nearly every day — including a historic wave after being sworn in — he has found progress to be much slower when working with outside groups from Congress to foreign nations.

'I will act with historic speed'

For Trump, he often promised the opposite as he came into office.

"Starting tomorrow, I will act with historic speed and strength and fix every single crisis facing our country," Trump proclaimed at a rally the night before taking the oath of office for a second time.

After his "Liberation Day" trade announcement, at least some Trump aides were talking about 90 deals in 90 days, but the last month has seen no deals inked.

And many of the foreign nations are pushing back on Trump's timelines.

South Korea has often been touted as being one of the "first in line," but the country's vice industry minister reportedly said this weekend he sees no chance of clinching a comprehensive trade agreement before a presidential election in June.

On Sunday, speaking about the chances of a deal with China, Trump offered that a "little bit" of progress had been made but would only say that "something's going to happen that's going to be possible."

Progress on Trump's Capitol Hill agenda also remains in limbo in spite of early promises.

"We'll have legislation prepared for him to sign into law," House Speaker Mike Johnson promised just five days before Trump's inauguration. "It's going to be a very aggressive first 100 days agenda."

But progress has been much slower, especially on the key issue of taxes.

Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune have forced their members into line on a series of procedural votes, but a range of policy issues remain unresolved.

Lawmakers are returning this week after a two-week break with hopes for progress.

But perhaps emblematic of the slow pace is that the main tax development expected on Trump's 100th day in office, which falls on Tuesday, is a Senate vote not to advance the bill but another step to confirm longtime tax expert Kenneth Kies to be an assistant secretary of the Treasury.

Kies is expected to play an important role in eventually hammering out a bill.

Source: yahoo

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Glendon

Economic

Political

As Canada holds an election on Monday, Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals are ahead of Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives in national opinion polls. The New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh is in a distant third place, while the separatist Bloc Quebecois, which only campaigns in the predominantly French-speaking province of Quebec, is in fourth.

In a close race, votes in a few electoral districts, called ridings in Canada, could make all the difference in who is prime minister.

BURNABY CENTRAL, BRITISH COLUMBIA

The result here could help show whether the left-leaning New Democrats, who compete with the Liberals for the center-left vote, have a future. Burnaby Central is a new riding, replacing Burnaby South. This was held by NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, who kept former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's minority Liberal government in power for more than two years in return for more social spending.

Singh, who is the NDP candidate, says Canadians benefited because as a result of the deal, Liberals passed legislation increasing access to healthcare. But polls suggest he is running third in the new riding as left-leaning voters coalesce behind the Liberals.

2021 election result in Burnaby South – NDP 40.3%; Liberal 30.4%; Conservatives 22.4%.

AURORA—OAK RIDGES—RICHMOND HILL, ONTARIO

Key to any victory is the so-called Golden Horseshoe, a riding-rich crescent that sits on Lake Ontario and includes Toronto as well as other cities. The Conservatives held Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill from 2018 to 2021. If they are to take advantage of unhappiness over living costs, immigration and a housing crisis – factors that dominated politics before U.S. PresidentDonald Trumpbegan threatening tariffs and annexation - the riding is a key target.

2021 election result – Liberal 45.2%; Conservatives 42.1%.

TROIS-RIVIERES, QUEBEC

Any party wishing to win power must also perform well in Quebec, which has the second-largest number of seats in the House of Commons. It is the only province with its own party, the Bloc, which is seeking independence for the province and whose fortunes can swing wildly. Trois-Rivieres is one of several in Quebec where three (and sometimes four parties) contend for the vote. The 2021 result was tight, with the Bloc winning by just 83 votes of the 58,110 that were cast.

2021 election result – Bloc Quebecois 29.5%; Conservative 29.4%; Liberal 28.6%.

EDMONTON SOUTHEAST, ALBERTA

The Liberals have traditionally fared poorly in the western oil-producing province of Alberta, thanks to former Liberal Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, who introduced unpopular energy policies in the 1980s. Some of this enmity rubbed off on his son, former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who at best only won a handful of Alberta seats. Now that Justin Trudeau is gone, the Liberals have a chance to repair their reputation. Ex-Liberal cabinet minister Amarjeet Sohi is running in the new riding of Edmonton Southeast, and if he wins, it will be a sign the party can succeed even in hostile territory.

CUMBERLAND-COLCHESTER, NOVA SCOTIA

The four provinces in Atlantic Canada, which contain a total of 32 seats and report their results first, often offer an early indication as to how the election might go. The region is politically volatile and results can swing broadly. The Liberals won Cumberland-Colchester by a few hundred votes in 2019 but lost it to the Conservatives in 2021.

2021 election result - Conservatives 46.0%; Liberals 34.2%; NDP 12.3%.

BURLINGTON, ONTARIO

This Ontario riding southwest of Toronto is the ultimate in Canadian bellwethers, having elected a legislator from the winning party for 12 consecutive elections going back to 1984.

2021 election result - Liberals 45.7%; Conservatives 37.3%; NDP 10.9%.

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Stocks

China–U.S. Trade War

Here are the most important news items that investors need to start their trading day:

Inching back

Stock futures slid Monday as investors looked ahead to a jammed week of earnings reports and economic data. The three major U.S. indexes climbed last week and have now recovered much or all of what they lost after President Donald Trump announced steep tariffs on dozens of countries at the start of the month – which he has since temporarily lowered. The S&P 500 has fallen 1.5% so far in April, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 4.5%. The Nasdaq Composite has gained 0.5%. In addition to hearing how some of the most important companies in the world are faring, investors will also digest first-quarter gross domestic product and the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, both out Wednesday, followed by the April jobs report on Friday. Follow live market updates.

Earnings extravaganza

The busiest week of earnings season is upon Wall Street. About one-third of both the S&P 500 and Dow will post results this week. Those include four of the so-called Magnificent Seven – Apple, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft – along with major consumer brands like Coca-Cola, Starbucks, McDonald’s and Eli Lilly. Investors will be watching whether any companies reduce or withdraw their financial guidance because of tariffs or lower consumer spending. Several restaurants, airlines and consumer packaged goods companies took that step last week. Here are the key reports to watch:

Tuesday: UPS , Pfizer, Coca-Cola (before the bell); Starbucks (after the bell)

Wednesday: Yum Brands, Etsy (before the bell); Meta, Microsoft, Qualcomm (after the bell)

Thursday: CVS, Eli Lilly, McDonald’s (before the bell); Apple, Amazon, Airbnb, Reddit, Block (after the bell)

Friday: Chevron, Exxon Mobil (before the bell)

Saturday: Berkshire Hathaway

China crunch

Trump’s tariff on Chinese imports is starting to hit businesses in the country. Some manufacturers are either trying to find new markets or stopping production in the face of the 145% duty the U.S. has imposed on many goods. “I know several factories that have told half of their employees to go home for a few weeks and stopped most of their production,” said Cameron Johnson, Shanghai-based senior partner at consulting firm Tidalwave Solutions. Many of the most affected businesses make toys, sporting goods or low-cost items sold at places like dollar stores.

Pall of duty

The threat of tariffs has caused U.S. consumers to spring early for some major purchases like cars and iPhones. But in many other areas, shoppers are holding out because of the duties and economic uncertainty. “There’s so much uncertainty right now that shoppers just don’t know what to do,” said Steve Zurek, vice president of thought leadership at NielsenIQ. “There’s nowhere to hide here — all they can do is control the household economics they have.”

Losing altitude

Domestic airfare is falling in the U.S. Airline CEOs have said demand for domestic trips is falling as travelers digest tariffs and concerns about an economic slowdown, leaving empty seats in the back of planes. “Nobody really relishes uncertainty when they’re talking about what they could do on a vacation and spend hard-earned dollars,” American Airlines CEO Robert Isom said on a quarterly earnings call on Thursday. Even so, Americans are still traveling overseas in droves.

Source: cnbc

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Michelle

Forex

Political

The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Monday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3868, up 0.10% on the day. There are no economic releases out of the US or Canada today.

Liberals expected to win Canadian election

It’s Election Day in Canada. Prime Minister Mark Carney, who has only been in office since March, is favored to win the election. Carney’s Liberal Party was badly trailing the Conservatives but US President Trump has ignited Canadian nationalism and turned the election race upside down.

Trump has talked about annexing Canada and although most Canadians don’t expect that to happen, there is strong resentment against the US tariff policy, which has hit Canada even though the two countries have a free trade agreement.

Carney is viewed as a strong leader who can stand up to Trump and the markets have priced in a Liberal majority. If the Liberals are forced to make a coalition with the smaller parties, the new government would be considered less stable and that would likely trigger some CAD weakness. If the Conservatives manage to pull out a surprise election victory, the Canadian dollar would likely get a boost.

Canada’s retail sales dips in February, rebounds in March

Canada’s retail sales declined 0.4% m/m in February but bounced back in March with a strong gain of 0.7%. On an annualized basis, retail sales slipped to 4.7% in February, down from a revised 5.3% in January.

The improvement in March was driven by consumers making purchases ahead of US tariffs, but consumer spending is likely to deteriorate. The Bank of Canada will be keeping a close eye and will have to consider further rate cuts if upcoming economic data is weak. The BoC maintained the cash rate at 2.75% earlier this month and meets next on June 4.

USD/CAD Technical

USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.3868. Above, there is resistance at 1.3880 and 1.3910
1.3850 and 1.3838 are the next support levels

USD/CAD 4-Hour Chart, April 28, 2025

Source: ACTIONFOREX

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Wall Street drifted modestly lower before the opening bell as uncertainty over global trade seeps into the busiest week of earnings this quarter from major corporations, as well as a raft of economic indicators

Futures for the S&P 500 dropped 0.2% Monday, while futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked down 0.1%. Nasdaq futures also fell 0.2%.

Domino’s Pizza slipped 1.5% in premarket trading after it’s quarterly revenue came in slightly below Wall Street’s expectations. Wall Street was also caught off guard by a decline in U.S. same store sales. Domino’s closed 25 stores abroad while opening 17 in the U.S.

Domino’s did not mention tariffs or trade policy, but corporations across across multiple sectors have lowered or withdrawn their projections, citing the uncertainty created by Trump’s tariffs. Domino’s referred to the current global macroeconomic environment as “challenging.”

Trump’s on-again-off-again tariffs may be pushing households and businesses to alter their spending and freeze plans for long-term investment because of how quickly conditions can change, seemingly by the hour.

Despite a market rally last week, as talk of Trump firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell receded and hints emerged of a selective softening of his stance on tariffs, not much has changed, Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said.

“But let’s not kid ourselves: this isn’t a clean pivot,” Innes said. “It’s hope and narrative management, plain and simple. What’s really driving the bounce isn’t hard policy action — it’s the perception of de-escalation.”

Trump says he’s on a path to cut several new trade deals in a few weeks — but has also suggested it’s “physically impossible” to hold all the needed meetings.

The hope is that if Trump rolls back some of his stiff tariffs, he could avert a recession that many investors see as otherwise likely because of his trade war.

Shares of Deliveroo, the food delivery service based in London, are hitting three-year highs after it received a $3.6 billion takeover offer from DoorDash. Deliveroo announced the bid after markets closed in Europe on Friday. Deliveroo on Monday suspended a share buyback program due to the offer.

Other major companies reporting earnings this week include four of the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple. Starbucks, Coca-Cola and McDonald’s also issue their latest financial results this week.

The Conference Board releases the results of its latest consumer confidence survey on Tuesday, while the U.S. government serves up reports throughout the week on consumer spending, inflation, gross domestic product and the broader employment situation.

Elsewhere, in Europe, Germany’s DAX added 0.4%, the CAC 40 in Paris gained 0.6% and Britain’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.2%.

Shares in China slipped despite more efforts by Beijing to boost the economy, as the status of talks between Washington and Beijing remained unclear.

Trump has said he’s actively negotiating with the Chinese government on tariffs — while the Chinese and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that talks have yet to start.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was nearly unchanged at 21,971.96, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2% to 3,288.41.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 picked up 0.4% to 35,839.99 and the Kospi in South Korea was nearly unchanged at 2,548.86.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 advanced 0.4%, closing at 7,997.10. Taiwan’s Taiex gained 0.8%

In energy trading, U.S. benchmark crude oil lost 31 cents to $62.71 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent crude, the international standard, fell 30 cents to $65.50 per barrel.

In currencies, the U.S. dollar declined to 143.45 Japanese yen from 143.60 yen. The euro fell to $1.1347 from $1.1366.

Source: AP

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Michelle

China–U.S. Trade War

Donald Trump’s increasingly erratic trade war has triggered a slump in container shipments to the US’s most important ports, amid the growing risk of a recession in the world’s largest economy.

In the latest sign of the US president’s tariff policies rattling the economy, figures show the number of vessels scheduled to arrive at the Port of Los Angeles next week is down by almost a third from the same period a year earlier.

According to the data compiled from ocean carrier manifest records by Port Optimizer, the number of arrivals this week is on track to be down by about 11% from the same week last year. Separate figures reported by the Financial Times from Vizion, a data provider, show container bookings from China to the US fell 45% by mid-April compared with a year earlier.

Economists have warned that Trump’s trade battles will lead to a significant slowdown in global trade and come with a cost for US consumers by pushing up prices and raising the chances of a recession. Washington has imposed a 145% tariff on Chinese imports and a blanket 10% border tax on all other countries, barring some exemptions.

Over the weekend, the US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, suggested there was a potential “path” to a deal with China on tariffs after speaking with his Chinese counterparts on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings.

Analysis by the US private equity group Apollo Global Management showed new business orders have fallen sharply since Trump’s “liberation day” announcement on 2 April.

Torsten Sløk, the asset manager’s chief economist, said: “For companies, new orders are falling, capex [investment] plans are declining, inventories were rising before tariffs took effect, and firms are revising down earnings expectations.

“For households, consumer confidence is at record-low levels, consumers were front loading purchases before tariffs began, and tourism is slowing, in particular international travel.”

Growing numbers of US company chief executives have voiced alarm at the impact from Trump’s tariff policies. The bosses of Walmart and Target, two of the country’s largest retailers, have warned the president that his plans could disrupt supply chains, raise prices and lead to empty shelves.

Analysts said the latest shipping figures, which are updated on a daily basis, indicated the fallout was escalating. However, some of the decline will also be down to a lull in activity after US companies rushed to import goods before Trump’s inauguration in anticipation of his tariff policies.

The US trade deficit widened to a record high in January as companies front-loaded imports before tariffs were imposed.

Kathleen Brooks, the research director at the trading platform XTB, said: “Already, port authorities in the US and logistics firms are expecting Chinese shipments to fall sharply.

“Demand for goods from China has plummeted since mid-April, suggesting that US businesses have been quick to adjust to the tariffs.”

Brooks said the fall in container bookings would have a “major impact” on Chinese businesses. However, the vice head of China’s state planner, Zhao Chenxin, said on Monday he was “fully confident” that the world’s second-largest economy would achieve its economic growth target of about 5% for 2025.

The San Pedro Bay ports of LA and Long Beach handle almost a third of all containerised seaborne trade in the US, and act as the main gateway for goods from China. As the busiest port in the western hemisphere, cars, computers and smartphones are the top imports to the port of LA.

Highlighting that it typically takes between 20 and 40 days for a sea container to travel from China to the US, Sløk said there would be a knock-on impact on demand for US trucking from the middle of next month, which could lead to empty shelves and layoffs in the distribution and retail industries.

This could lead to a recession by the summer, he added.

Paul Krugman, the US Nobel-winning economist, said the collapse in trade was “reminiscent of what happened during and after the Covid pandemic” amid growing uncertainty for companies over the president’s policies.

“But this time a virus won’t be responsible. It will all be about Donald Trump,” he wrote on Substack. “This time there won’t be a vaccine coming to our rescue. We’re stuck with this chaos agent for three years and three months.”

Source: GUARDIAN

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Glendon

Economic

Forex

Cable edged higher early Monday and pressure pivotal barrier at 1.3350 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.3423/1.3232 pullback / former recovery peak of Apr 24).

Series of higher lows since 1.3232 correction low, with fresh recovery being tracked by ascending 10DMA add to near term bullish bias, with sustained break of 1.3350 needed to confirm that corrective phase is over, and larger bulls look for fresh attack at key 1.3434 barrier (2024 top).

On the other hand, sharp drop in confidence in the UK economy (at the historical low) and signal that already fragile economy may weaken further, add to warnings that larger bulls may stall on approach to 1.3434.

Growing optimism on fading threats from the negative impact from US trade tariffs and initial signals of Ukraine war peace talks may offer fresh support to US dollar and push sterling in defensive.

The notion is supported by overbought weekly studies, fading bullish momentum and strong upside rejection last week (weekly candle with long upper shadow).

Also, momentum is overstretched and turned sideways on daily chart, along with RSI being close the border of overbought zone, although daily studies are overall still bullish.

Expect prolonged consolidation while the price action remains limited by 1.3423 (recent recovery peak) and 1.3254 (Fibo 23.6% of 1.2708/1.3423 upleg / correction low).

Loss of 1.3254/ 1.3200 to weaken near term structure and risk deeper correction towards 1.3150 (Fibo 38.2%) and 1.3121 (20DMA).

Res: 1.3400; 1.3434; 1.3515; 1.3588
Sup: 1.3298; 1.3254; 1.3200; 1.3150