S&P 500 Rises at the Open and Could Be Headed for an All-Time High

Stocks

Summary:

Global shares mostly rose Friday amid optimism over a U.S.-China trade deal and a sustained Israel-Iran ceasefire, while investors awaited clarity on tariffs and inflation.

Global shares were mostly higher on Friday as the week was winding down with the Israel-Iran ceasefire still in place and signs of progress on a China-U.S. trade deal.

Investors were watching for further details after President Donald Trump said the U.S. and China had signed a trade deal. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in an interview on Bloomberg TV that the deal was signed two days ago, but did not elaborate, saying “The president likes to close these deals himself.”

China’s Commerce Ministry said Friday that the two sides had “further confirmed the details of the framework” for their trade talks. But its statement did not explicit mention an agreement to ensure U.S. access to rare earths, materials used in high-tech applications that have been at the center of negotiations.

“China will approve the export applications of controlled items that meet the conditions in accordance with the law. The United States will cancel a series of restrictive measures taken against China accordingly. It is hoped that the United States and China will meet each other halfway,” the ministry said in a statement. In early European trading, Germany’s DAX added 0.8% to 23,847.16. In Paris, the CAC 40 surged 1.3% to 7,656.55. Britain’s FTSE 100 gained 0.5% to 8,779.78.

The futures for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.2%.

Markets have settled somewhat after the upheavals of the Israel-Iran war and its aftermath.

Worries about Trump’s higher tariffs have receded since the president shocked the world in April with stiff proposed levies, but they have not disappeared. The wait is still on to see how big the tariffs will ultimately be, how much they will hurt the economy and how much they will push up inflation.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index lost 0.2% to 24,284.15, while the Shanghai Composite index gave up 0.7% to 3,424.23 after China reported that industrial profits slid 9.1% in May, the sharpest drop since last October.

“Beijing may have paused the worst of the trade fight with Washington, but the tariff scars are showing—and unless demand picks up or pricing stabilizes, the pressure on margins and business sentiment will linger,” Stephen Innes, Managing Partner at SPI Asset Management, said in a commentary.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index gained 1.4% to 40,150.79, as the government reported that consumer prices eased slightly in May.

South Korea’s KOSPI Composite Index fell 0.8% to 3,055.94, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.4% at 8,514.20.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 climbed 0.8% and at 6,141.02 was sitting just 0.05% below its all-time closing high set in February. The index at the heart of many 401(k) accounts had dropped roughly 20% below its record during the spring on worries about Trump’s tariffs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 0.9% and the Nasdaq composite gained 1%.

Reports on Thursday added to evidence the U.S. economy is holding up despite higher tariffs and other challenges, though it has slowed. Orders for washing machines and other manufactured goods that last at least three years grew by more last month than economists expected. Another report said fewer U.S. workers filed for unemployment benefits last week, a potential signal of fewer layoffs.

A third report said the U.S. economy shrank by more during the first three months of 2025 than earlier estimated. But many economists say those numbers were distorted by a surge in imports as companies tried to get ahead of tariffs. They’re expecting a better performance in upcoming months.

In other dealings on Friday, the U.S. benchmark crude gained 46 cents to $65.70 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, added 41 cents to $67.10 per barrel.

The U.S. dollar fell to 144.37 Japanese yen from 144.40 yen. The euro edged higher to $1.1710 from $1.1703.

Source: AP

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Adam

Stocks

US stocks inched up before the bell on Friday, on the cusp of fresh record highs as investors waited for a key inflation reading to test bets on accelerated interest-rate cuts and assessed signs of progress in US-China trade talks.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) and on the S&P 500 (ES=F) both moved up roughly 0.2%. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) gained 0.3%.

Stocks are poised to resume the week's march higher as markets embrace upbeat news after days of Mideast tensions and swirling tariff uncertainty. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed on Thursday just a few points shy of setting a new all-time high, buoyed by rising expectations that the Fed will lower interest rates as early as July.

Friday's release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, is consequently being met with much anticipation. Investors will be watching closely for any signs that Trump's tariffs pushed prices higher, an issue Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stressed could be a stumbling block to a rate cut.

Markets got a boost on the trade front, too. Trump said Thursday that the US and China have "signed" a trade deal, without elaborating. The two sides have agreed to implement the tariff truce they agreed in Geneva, and China has confirmed details of the agreed trade framework, per several media reports.

Under the China deal, "they’re going to deliver rare earths to us,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Bloomberg. Once that is done, “we’ll take down our countermeasures,” he said.

Trade deals with 10 major US trading partners are imminent, according to Lutnick. Others on Trump's team have said that countries negotiating with the US will get an extension to the tariff pause, set to expire July 9.

Source: finance.yahoo

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Michelle

Forex

Economic

Trump Says US, China Have Sealed Deal to Reinstate Their Trade Truce_1

The US and China stepped closer to a full trade deal on Thursday, after making a pact to formally cement the informal understanding reached in Geneva talks in May.

“We just signed with China yesterday,” Trump said during a briefing at the White House, though he did not provide further details.

The pact marks a significant step in stabilizing trade relations between the two countries, which lapsed into feuding soon after the trade truce. China has confirmed it will deliver rare earths to the US as part of the trade framework. The US will respond by taking down its countermeasures, Howard Lutnick told Bloomberg.

The Commerce Secretary also said that trade agreements with 10 key US trading partners are imminent, as countries from Canada to Japan struggle to get over the finish line with just two weeks to go.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration has signaled a willingness to roll back the self-imposed tariff deadline of July 9 as pressure builds. Stephen Miran, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said the tariff pause to be extended for countries negotiating "in good faith."

"I mean, you don't blow up a deal that's that's in process and making really good faith, sincere, authentic progress by dropping a tariff bomb in it," Miran told Yahoo Finance.

Trump and officials have warned that he could soon simply hand countries their tariff rates, raising questions about the status of negotiations. Miran said that he doesn't see the aggregate tariff rate falling materially below the 10% level in the long run, but some countries may negotiate more favorable duties while others will see a return of the steeper "Liberation Day" tariffs.

So far, Trump has firmed up a trade deal with the United Kingdom. In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney's government threatened to hike tariffs by late July on US imports of steel and aluminum, after Trump ballooned US levies on those metals. The countries are aiming for a deal by mid-July.

The European Union has also vowed to retaliate if the US sticks with its baseline 10% tariffs, according to a report in Bloomberg. Trump has threatened tariffs of up to 50% on EU imports.

One sticking point in negotiations has come from Trump's disorganized approach to his tariff policies. According to Bloomberg, some countries have resisted signing deals without knowing whether Trump's other duties — including those on metals, chips, and other materials — would still apply to them.

Meanwhile, the US economy is still figuring out the effects of the tariffs while the White House is simultaneously making a push to get the "big, beautiful" tax bill passed in the Senate. Fed Chair Jerome Powell this week reiterated that the central bank is still waiting to see the effects of the tariffs on prices before cutting interest rates.

Source: Yahoo Finance

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Economic

Forex

Donald Trump never misses an opportunity to criticize Jerome Powell. Yesterday, at a press conference following the NATO summit, he once again called the man he nicknames "Too Late" "stupid."

This criticism is in line with his previous statements. However, it is worth noting that he is no longer threatening to fire the current Fed chairman, which is already progress: "He's leaving soon, fortunately, because I think he's very bad."

What are monetary policy issues doing in the middle of a NATO press conference, you might ask. Donald Trump cannot be blamed for answering a question he was asked. But he still bears responsibility, because everything he does is so disjointed that journalists no longer bother to ask questions relevant to the event they are attending.

Who will replace Powell?

The big question now is who will replace Jerome Powell, whose term expires in May 2026. "I have three or four people I'm going to choose from," Donald Trump said yesterday.

According to an article in the Wall Street Journal, five candidates are in the running: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and former World Bank President David Malpass.

While Scott Bessent had previously stated that hearings would not begin until the fall, according to the Wall Street Journal, President Trump could announce his choice as early as September.

Worst half-year for the dollar since 1991

The announcement contributed to the dollar falling to its lowest level in three years. Indeed, there could be a "shadow Fed chair." In other words, if Donald Trump appoints Jerome Powell's successor in September, he could turn him into a "lame duck." In such a scenario, the markets would start to listen more to his successor, thereby weakening the Fed's credibility.

Investors also fear that Donald Trump will exert too much influence over the Fed starting next year. At the very least, the person chosen will be in favor of rate cuts.

All this explains why the dollar is weakening. The dollar index – the dollar against a basket of reference currencies – has hit a three-year low. Since the beginning of the year, the decline has been exceeded 10%: the worst half-year since 1991.

Source: marketscreener

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Stocks

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets

The glass appears half full once again.

With midyear approaching, the main Wall Street stock indexes are back within a hair's breadth of new records, helped along by a weakening dollar, the prospect of lower borrowing rates, increasing trade optimism and a renewed focus on the artificial intelligence theme.

Throw in some positive tax and regulatory twists, and now we're likely to see new highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq later today.

It's Friday, so today I'll provide a quick overview of what's happening in global markets and then offer you some weekend reading suggestions away from the headlines.

Today's Market Minute

* The United States has reached an agreement with China on how to expedite rare earth shipments to the U.S., a White House official said on Thursday, amid efforts to end a trade war between the world's biggest economies.

* European Union leaders discussed new proposals from the United States on a trade deal at a summit in Brussels on Thursday, with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen not ruling out tariff talks could fail and saying "all options remain on the table".

* Iran would respond to any future U.S. attack by striking American military bases in the Middle East, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Thursday, in his first televised remarks since a ceasefire was reached between Iran and Israel.

* U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Thursday asked Republicans in Congress to remove a "retaliatory tax" proposal that targets foreign investors from their sweeping budget legislation, as lawmakers struggled to find a path forward on the bill.

* What will be the biggest pain trades in the second half of 2025? ROI columnist Jamie McGeever discusses the most vulnerable positions.

Wall St flirts with new record

While still underperforming the MSCI's all-country index for the year so far, and lagging euro zone stocks by some 20% in dollar terms in 2025, the S&P500 has all but completed a remarkable 20% round trip from the peak of February to the troughs of April and back.

The VIX 'fear index' ebbed to its lowest in four months, while gold prices slipped to their lowest in almost a month.

With more than 40% of S&P500 revenues coming from overseas, the dollar's slide to 3-year lows this week spotlights a 10%-plus currency tailwind in 2025. The greenback remained near the year's lows on Friday.

And even though President Donald Trump's harrying of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell unnerves many about the long-term inflation impact of threatening Fed independence, it has stepped up bets about a resumption of interest rate cuts - and most clearly after Powell's term ends next year.

While markets awaited the latest U.S. May inflation update later on Friday - with oil prices brushing off the latest Middle East conflict to resume a near 20% year-on-year drop - two and 10-year Treasury yields fell to their lowest since early May on Thursday.

The bond market has been soothed in part by this week's Fed proposal on overhauling how much capital large global banks must hold against relatively low-risk assets, part of a bid to boost banks' participation in Treasury markets.

But markets got a further lift overnight from signs of some movement on bilateral trade negotiations ahead of July 9's expiry of the 90-day pause on Trump's sweeping tariff hikes.

The White House said the United States reached an agreement with China on how to expedite rare earth shipments to the U.S.

European Union leaders discussed new proposals from the United States on a trade deal at a summit in Brussels late on Thursday, with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen saying "all options remain on the table".

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz urged the EU to do a "quick and simple" trade deal rather than a "slow and complicated" one, even as French President Emmanuel Macron struck a cautious note.

And while the U.S. fiscal bill is still struggling through the Senate, there was an important development on tax provisions that may ease foreign investor concerns.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent asked Republicans in Congress to remove a "retaliatory tax" proposal - the controversial Section 899 that targets foreign investors with higher tax in retaliation for any overseas disputes.

Justifying the removal, Bessent said that under a G7 agreement, a 15% global corporate minimum tax will not apply to U.S. companies under "Pillar 2" of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development tax deal.

The latest economic numbers, meantime, were a mixed bag but show few signs of a sharp downturn yet.

Durable goods orders boomed in May well above forecasts, while the labor market remained resilient with a drop in weekly jobless claims. May trade data, on the other hand, showed a sharp drop in exports.

As the second-quarter earnings season comes into view next month, the longer-term AI investment theme was given a fresh spur from an above-forecast revenue readout from Micron Technology - even though its stock ended lower on Thursday. AI darling Nvidia hit a new record high, however, up more than 80% from the lows of April.

In other corporate news, Nike's shares jumped 10% overnight as its first-quarter revenue outlook exceeded market expectations.

Elsewhere, stocks in Europe were sharply higher on Friday - chiming with Wall Street. They have been boosted by the defense spending push at this week's NATO summit and as details of Germany's big fiscal stimulus unfolded.

German lawmakers on Thursday passed a multi-billion-euro package of fiscal relief measures to support companies and boost investment, involving corporate tax breaks amounting to almost 46 billion euros ($54 billion) from this year through to 2029.

Despite the positive noises on a U.S. trade deal, Chinese stocks bucked the global trend and were in the red on Friday.

China's industrial profits swung back into sharp decline, falling 9.1% in May from a year earlier, as factory activity slowed in the face of broader economic stress.

There was better news in Japan as core consumer inflation in Tokyo slowed sharply in June. Tech stocks led the Nikkei up more than 1%.

Weekend reads:

* TARIFF DAMAGE: Even though President Donald Trump appears to have retreated from his more extreme trade tariff plans due to market, industry and political pushback, trade barriers will damage the economy over the next decade. So claims a Peterson Institute paper by Warwick McKibbin, Marcus Noland and Geoffrey Shuetrim, who estimate the impact under five different scenarios - which get worse the bigger the retaliation overseas and the higher the country risk premium demanded by global investors. "Contrary to Trump's promises to revive U.S. industry, America's manufacturing and agriculture sectors see disproportionate losses in production and employment due to his tariffs."

* OPAQUE DEBT: Global sovereign debt vulnerability is rising and 54% of low-income countries are already in or at high risk of debt distress, with many spending more on debt repayments than on education, healthcare and infrastructure combined. With frequent global shocks adding to the risk, the World Bank's Axel van Trotsenburg argues on Project Syndicate that debt obligations are now more complex, with a wider range of creditors and some borrowing occurring behind closed doors and outside the scrutiny of oversight mechanisms. "Without urgent action to improve transparency, unsustainable debt-service burdens in the developing world will become common."

* UKRAINE VS RUSSIA IN AFRICA: On Africa's dry western tip, Mauritania has become an unlikely staging post for Ukraine's increasingly global struggle with its adversary Russia. Reuters' Jessica Donati and Olena Harmash detail Kyiv's Africa Strategy in seeking allies with aide and embassies - countering Russia's much more entrenched presence in the continent.

* SIU SIMPLE: With much attention on the European Union's ability to attract or unlock much-needed investment capital, accelerating its capital markets integration - or Savings and Investments Union - is seen as critical. Nicholas Veron at Bruegel proposes catalyzing this by hardening a central supervisory system to replace the current complex hybrid of a central agency - the European Securities and Markets Authority - alongside national supervisory bodies. "The way to reform it is by pooling all capital market supervisory authority into a transformed multicentric ESMA that would operate mostly through its own offices in EU countries, ensuring supervisory consistency and no preferential treatment for any single financial centre."

* WEGOVY TEEN IMPACT: A fast-growing cohort of American teens who have chosen to take Novo Nordisk's weight-loss drug Wegovy, placing them at the forefront of a monumental shift in the treatment of childhood obesity. A Reuters special report by Chad Terhune and Robin Respaut found children who had taken Wegovy or a similar weight-loss drug, to speak with them about their experiences. The reporters spent more than a year closely following four teens and their families to examine in detail the impact of treatment.

Chart of the day:

U.S. stock markets have completed a remarkable 20% round trip since February to stand back at the brink of new records - with the S&P500 up more than 10% on this time last year.

Today's events to watch

* U.S. May personal consumption expenditures inflation gauge (0830EDT) University of Michigan's final June consumer survey (10:00 AM EDT)

* New York Federal Reserve President John Williams and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speak

Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Source: Reuters

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Glendon

Economic

Stocks

Investors appear to be pricing in a substantial de-escalation in both trade tensions and geopolitical frictions, according to analysts at UBS.

In a note to clients taking a "neutral" view on U.S. equities, the strategists predicted that the upcoming second-quarter corporate earnings season will likely be "resilient," while a tax-and-spending package currently making its way through Congress will boost company cash flows.

As a result, they lifted their 2025 S&P earnings per share estimate to $265, implying growth of 6%. For 2026, the figure was raised to $285, or 7.5% expansion versus the prior year.

Their targets for the benchmark S&P 500 index were also increased to 6,200 for the end of 2025 and 6,500 for June 2026. On Thursday, the average closed at 6,141.02, hovering near a fresh all-time high despite having gone through deep ructions earlier this year.

"U.S. equities have continued to recover from the tariff induced sell-off in March and April," the UBS analysts said. "We think the recovery makes sense, considering that most large-cap companies should weather the tariffs reasonably well."

However, they flagged that stocks could still experience some volatility -- either to the upside or downside -- in the next few months as traders react to developments around sweeping U.S. tariffs. Crucially, a delay to President Donald Trump’s aggressive reciprocal levies is due to expire early next month, with uncertainty lingering over whether the White House will ultimately extend the deadline.

The analysts noted that goods that have been impacted by other tariffs that currently in place will hit store shelves soon, possibly leading to "a slowdown in economic growth and an uptick in inflation through the summer."

"While investors are already expecting this outcome, any softening in the data beyond expectations could be a headwind for U.S. stocks," the analysts wrote. "Management team commentary and guidance during second-quarter earnings season -- which starts in mid-July -- will likely be a key driver."

Against this backdrop, the brokerage said it prefers the communication services, financials, health care, information technology and utilities sectors.

Source: Investing

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Damon

Economic

Canada’s economy contracted slightly in April, with real gross domestic product declining 0.1%, down from growing 0.2% in March, and lower than estimates of no change, according to data Statistics Canada reported Friday.

The contraction was primarily driven by weakness in goods-producing industries, which fell 0.6% overall. Manufacturing was particularly hard hit, dropping 1.9% in April, the sector’s largest decline since April 2021.

Transportation equipment manufacturing decreased 3.7%, with other transportation equipment plunging 21.6%, marking its first decline in six months. Food production fell 3.6%, while petroleum and coal product manufacturing dropped 5.9% as refineries conducted maintenance amid weakening demand.

Services-producing industries provided some offset, rising 0.1%. Financial investment services surged 3.5%, benefiting from higher equity trading volumes triggered by volatility following the announcement and subsequent pause of U.S. tariffs.

Public sector activity increased 0.4% in April, with federal public administration jumping 2.2% as election-related operations intensified. The arts and entertainment sector grew 2.8%, its strongest performance since March 2022, boosted by five NHL teams advancing to the playoffs.

Wholesale trade fell 1.9%, its largest monthly decline since June 2023. Seven of nine subsectors contracted, led by motor vehicle parts and equipment distributors amid soft trade flows.

Preliminary estimates suggest GDP contracted another 0.1% in May, adding pressure to Canada’s economic recovery. The country’s economy remains heavily dependent on the U.S. market, particularly in oil and gas extraction, which derived 60% of output and 42% of employment from U.S. demand in 2023.

The oil sands subsector shows even greater U.S. dependence, with 87% of its output and workforce tied to U.S. consumption last year. While the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion has increased exports beyond the U.S. in 2024, America remains Canada’s primary crude oil buyer, purchasing 229.8 million cubic metres of Canada’s record 240.4 million cubic metres in crude exports this year.