South Korea Exports Hold Momentum As Chips Set Annual Record

The U.S. government has granted an annual licence to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (2330.TW), opens new tab to import U.S. chip manufacturing equipment to its facilities in Nanjing, China, the chipmaker said on Thursday.

The approval "ensures uninterrupted fab operations and product deliveries," the company said in a statement to Reuters.

South Korea's Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix (000660.KS), opens new tab have also received similar import licences.

Previously, the Asian companies had benefited from exemptions from Washington's sweeping restrictions on chip-related exports to China, part of U.S. efforts to try to stay ahead of China in technological development.

But those privileges - known as validated end-user status - expired on December 31 and the companies had to seek U.S. export licences instead for 2026.

"The U.S. Department of Commerce has granted TSMC Nanjing an annual export license that allows U.S. export-controlled items to be supplied to TSMC Nanjing without the need for individual vendor licenses," TSMC said in its statement.

It added the licence "ensures uninterrupted fab operations and product deliveries".

The Nanjing plant makes 16-nanometre and other mature node chips - not TSMC's most-advanced semiconductors. TSMC also has a chipmaking plant in Shanghai.

In its 2024 annual report, TSMC said its Nanjing site generated about 2.4% of overall revenue.

Source: Reuters

Oil prices dropped lower in 2025 and show bearish price action which indicates further downside in 2026. Brent crude oil (BCO) and WTI crude oil (CL) recorded almost a 20% drop in 2025. This was Brent's third consecutive annual loss, which is the largest losing streak on record. On the other hand, the market sentiment turned negative as supply concerns were affected by the geopolitical tensions. Brent oil closed the year at $61 while the WTI oil closed at $57.

The prices failed to sustain gains despite the short term price increases from sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela. Moreover, the conflicts between Iran and Israel did not induce any positive turn in the oil market. Moreover, OPEC+ has increased output by around 2.9 million barrels/day since April. U.S. shale producers hedged production at high prices, so that supply became more resilient to a decrease in prices. The EIA also reported record-high U.S. production in October, leading to more anxiety of a supply glut in 2026.

According to the recent data, a slight decrease in crude stocks is observed. However, the gasoline and distillate stocks show large accumulation. It is found that the US gasoline stocks increased 5.8 million barrels, which is far above expectations. On the other hand, the diesel and heating oil stocks added a million barrels to the oversupply fears. The decreased demand during the holiday period and negative price action during the last week of 2025 may put pressure on oil and natural gas prices in early 2026.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The daily chart for the U.S. Dollar Index indicates that the index settled at $57.40 on the last day of 2025. The price stays in the blue zone, which is a sign of strong bearish pressure on the oil prices. The prospect of downside breakouts in the area of $55 is on the rise. A break below $55 will trigger a heavy fall in the oil market.

The 4-hour chart of WTI crude indicates that the price is moving within a descending broadening wedge pattern. These fluctuations are creating a negative price structure, with prices unable to break above the $60 area. Moreover, the RSI is also showing negative signals which is a sign of further downside.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The daily chart for natural gas shows that natural gas prices moved between $4.50 to $3.80 before breaking lower. The natural gas price also fell on the last day of 2025, ending at $3.68. Immediate support is still in the vicinity of the $3.50 region at the 200-day SMA. However, the natural gas market is showing negative price action in the last month of 2025.

The 4-hour chart for natural gas also indicates that prices were unable to break above $4.70, which triggered negative momentum. The bearish nature of price action during the month of December indicates that 2026 may be a rough start with immediate support likely between the $3.50 to $3.00 area. A break below $2.50 would add to downside pressure in natural gas prices.

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis

The daily chart of the U.S. Dollar Index shows that the index is moving around under thin liquidity conditions during the holiday period. Despite this fluctuation, the overall trend is bearish, and the index is likely to go lower in early 2026. A break below 96.50 would likely lead to a sharp drop in the U.S. Dollar Index to the 90.00 level.

The 4 hour chart for U.S. Dollar Index shows the development of a double top pattern at 100.50 and then negative price action after breaking the 99.00 level. The strong consolidation between 96.50 and 100.50 means that the next major move in the U.S. Dollar Index will probably develop in the first quarter of 2026.

Source: FX Empire

The year 2025 was one of great volatility for global markets, as US tariffs, geopolitical worries and the possibility of an artificial intelligence bubble spooked investors. It was also the year that Wall Street was knocked off its perch, as rival markets grew at more than twice the speed.

Once again, gold outshone them all. The precious metal rose about 65 per cent over the year, its best performance since 1979, with prices hitting an all-time high of $4,500 an ounce.

It was a tough year for so-called digital gold, Bitcoin. After nearing a record $125,000 in the autumn, it ended the year around 7 per cent lower at roughly $88,000.

Past performance only tells us so much, though. What really matters is what happens next. So, what does 2026 hold for the major asset classes?

Stocks and shares

Emerging markets beat all comers to rise 25 per cent across 2025, according to Fidelity International. European equities followed at 23 per cent, while Asia Pacific and the UK both climbed about 20 per cent. Japan also did well.

The US market lagged, rising just 10 per cent after gains of more than 20 per cent in each of the previous two years.

It's been a roller coaster of a year, says Jemma Slingo, pensions and investment specialist at Fidelity International. "Yet since the tariff shock in April, investors have largely focused on positives such as easing inflation, lower interest rates and resilient corporate earnings."

Equities climbed despite economic worries, but with talk of a US recession in 2026, that may be harder to sustain. Relief could come from interest rate cuts. Both the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England cut in December, and Shannon Saccocia, chief investment officer for wealth at Neuberger, expects more in 2026.

"This would help reaccelerate subdued economic growth, creating a positive undercurrent to further support risk assets," she says, while warning that policy mistakes remain a risk amid internal Fed divisions.

Another concern is whether the AI boom deflates. Martin Connaghan, senior investment director at Murray International Trust, points to high stock valuations, slowing growth, rising debt and geopolitical uncertainty. "When markets are concentrated and expectations are high, the margin for error is small."

Peter Branner, chief investment officer at Aberdeen Investments, expects US growth to recover as inflation eases. Europe may benefit from fiscal loosening, while China could slow. AI remains a key factor, but he cautions: "As AI-driven equities are getting expensive, investors should consider building further diversification."

Benjamin Melman, chief investment officer at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management, says investors must hold firm in equities in general. "Markets remain expensive, with AI concentrating excesses, but macroeconomic conditions do not justify a massive withdrawal from risk."

Outlook: US tech is no longer the only game in town. Broader diversification looks sensible. More volatility is inevitable.

Gold

Gold's long-term record is extraordinary. It began the millennium at just over $288 an ounce and is up 1,462 per cent since then, turning $10,000 into $156,200.

The rally continued in 2025 as political tension, falling rates, central bank buying and economic uncertainty boosted demand, says Kate Marshall, lead investment analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. "Goldman Sachs estimates central banks will target around 20 per cent of reserves in gold, but China is currently around 8 per cent. That should support the price, but we don't expect the same returns in 2026."

Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com, says gold has worked as an inflation hedge and may struggle if price pressures fall. "But talk of a peak is premature."

A BullionVault survey shows gold investors predicting prices of $5,136 in 2026.

Outlook: Gold has defied sceptics for years. The pace of growth will surely slow, but sheer momentum could drive the price on.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin delivered its usual volatility. It plunged to $75,000 in April during US President Donald Trump's "liberation day" tariff scare, surged to nearly $125,000 in October, then faded as AI valuation fears returned.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, says sentiment has been bruised. "Crypto investors have seen plenty of false dawns in recent months, but recent lows provide a foundation for further gains."

Alex Thorn, head of firm-wide research at Galaxy Digital, says 2026 is one of the hardest years to forecast, with crypto still in a broader bear phase. Bitcoin could even turn "boring", the one thing nobody expects, although Galaxy still sees the price hitting $250,000 in 2027.

Outlook: Bitcoin got a real bounce from US President Donald Trump but must now find other reasons to fly.

Currencies

The US dollar is down nearly 10 per cent this year, and Lukman Otunuga, senior market analyst at FXTM, says: "Its decline reflects a loss of US exceptionalism as tariffs, rate cuts and political noise took their toll."

With the European Central Bank already cutting rates to 2 per cent, the dollar has room to recover if Fed easing continues.

Dagmara Fijalkowski, head of global fixed income currencies at RBC Global Asset Management, says this will be a big boost for one region. "Emerging currencies will continue to be the main beneficiary of further US dollar depreciation."

Outlook: The dollar looks vulnerable in 2026 unless US inflation proves sticky and delays further cuts.

Property

Oliver Salmon, director of Savills World Research, says 2025 marked a turning point for commercial property markets after years of subdued activity. "Capital values have bottomed out, average deal sizes are increasing, and debt is once again contributing positively to returns."

He expects momentum to build in 2026, with global real estate investment forecast to rise 15 per cent to more than $1 trillion.

Outlook: Falling interest rates should support the next leg of the recovery.

Bonds

Arielle Ingrassia, associate director at UK wealth manager Evelyn Partners, says bonds delivered income and stability in 2025, offsetting political and inflationary turbulence. "Crucially, elevated yields meant bonds delivered compelling income, reinforcing their contribution to overall portfolio returns."

Mr Melman warned that with fiscal policy set to be expansionary in the US, Japan and Germany, and government debt and deficits continuing to grow, long-term government bonds look less attractive. "Particularly if political pressure influences central banks."

Outlook: Bonds remain important diversifiers, but yields may drift lower as easing continues.

2026 recovery opportunity?

One major market lagged in 2025: India. Kate Marshall at Hargreaves Lansdown says high expectations and stretched valuations left it exposed when sentiment shifted. "While uncomfortable, this kind of reset is not unusual after a strong run and does not undermine India's longer-term potential," she says.

Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and HSBC all expect Indian equities to rebound and hit new highs in 2026.

Outlook: This year's underperformer could turn things around in 2026.

Source: THENATIONALNEWS

Gold and silver fell on the last trading day of 2025, though both remained on track for the biggest annual gain in more than four decades as a banner year for precious metals drew to a close.

Spot gold hovered around $4,320 an ounce, while silver slid toward $71. The two have seen exceptional volatility in thin post-holiday trading, plunging Monday before recovering Tuesday and dropping again Wednesday. The big swings prompted exchange operator CME Group to raise margin requirements twice.

Both metals are on track for their best year since 1979, supported by strong demand for haven assets amid mounting geopolitical risks and by interest-rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. The so-called debasement trade — triggered by fears of inflation and swelling debt burdens in developed economies — has helped supercharge the scorching rally.

In gold, the bigger market by far, those factors spurred a rush by investors into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds, while central banks extended a years-long buying spree.

Gold is up about 63% this year. In September, it eclipsed an inflation-adjusted peak set 45 years ago — a time when US currency pressures, spiking inflation and an unfolding recession pushed prices to $850. This time around, the record run saw prices smash through $4,000 in early October.

"In my career, it's unprecedented," said John Reade, a market veteran and chief strategist at the World Gold Council. "Unprecedented by the number of new all-time highs, and unprecedented in the performance of gold exceeding the expectations of so many people by so much."

Silver has notched up a gain of more than 140% during the year, driven by speculative buying but also by industrial demand. The metal is used extensively in electronics, solar panels and electric cars. In October, it soared to a record as tariff concerns drove imports into the US, tightening the London market and triggering a historic squeeze.

The new peak was then passed the following month as US rate cuts and speculative fervor drove prices higher. The rally topped out above $80 earlier this week — in part reflecting elevated buying in China.

Yet the latest move swiftly reversed, with the market closing down 9% Monday then swinging the following two days. In response to the extreme volatility, CME Group again raised margins on precious-metal futures, meaning traders must put up more cash to keep their positions open. Some speculators may be forced to shrink or exit their trades — weighing on prices.

"The key driver today is the CME raising margins for the second time in just a few days," said Ross Norman, chief executive officer of Metals Daily, a pricing and analysis website. The higher collateral requirements are "cooling the markets off," he said.

Platinum, Palladium

The enthusiasm for gold and silver has extended into the wider precious metals complex in 2025, with platinum breaking out of a years-long holding pattern to hit a new high.

The metal is on course for a third annual deficit, following disruptions in major producer South Africa, and supply will likely remain tight until there's clarity on whether the Trump administration will impose tariffs.

Prices for silver, platinum and palladium all sagged Wednesday, though there's little sign of enthusiasm waning.

The year's "surprise was how safe-haven metals turned into momentum trades — silver in particular," said Charu Chanana, chief market strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore.

Silver traded down 7.1% at $70.83 an ounce as of 3:20 p.m. in New York. Gold slipped 0.5% to $4,317.41 an ounce, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was up little-changed.

Source: TradingView

Copper closed December 31, 2025 near $5.6 per pound, finishing the year more than 40% higher and marking one of its strongest annual performances on record.

Unlike past rallies tied to booming industrial demand, this surge was fueled primarily by trade positioning and tightening supply, not a broad-based consumption rebound.

Tariff Front-Running Reshapes Global Flows

A defining feature of 2025 was the aggressive relocation of physical copper into the United States. Throughout the second half of the year, traders and manufacturers pulled forward imports to build inventories ahead of expected tariffs from the incoming Trump administration. This pre-emptive buying distorted traditional trade routes.

The result was a sharp drawdown in Asian and European warehouse stocks, while U.S. inventories swelled. Prices responded accordingly, reflecting scarcity outside the U.S. rather than a synchronized pickup in end demand.

Production Constraints Tighten an Already Fragile Market

Supply stress amplified the price impact of these trade maneuvers. In Chile, the world's largest copper producer, output fell to its lowest level in two decades, pressured by declining ore grades and persistent water shortages. Earlier in the year, a major mine closure in Panama removed roughly 1.5% of global supply, further tightening balances.

These disruptions left little buffer in a market already grappling with limited new mine development, turning logistical shocks into outsized price moves.

Demand Signals Remain Muted

Beneath the surface, fundamental demand offered little confirmation of a traditional bull cycle. China's property sectorcontinued to struggle through 2025, and global manufacturing PMIs spent much of Q4 in contraction territory. Outside tariff-driven stockpiling, consumption growth remained subdued.

This disconnect underscores how the 2025 rally was shaped more by who needed copper where, rather than how much copper the global economy was actually using.

Volatility Expected to Spill Into 2026

Looking ahead, analysts expect market distortions to persist. The U.S. premium, the price gap between New York's Comex and London's LME, hit record highs in December 2025, reflecting the extreme pull of metal into the U.S. Goldman Sachs expects this volatility to extend into early 2026 as trade policies are formalized.

Despite weak demand signals, several banks have raised 2026 price forecasts, citing structural scarcity and limited mine supply. Consensus targets for mid-2026 now cluster between $5.60 and $6.00 per pound, driven by a growing view that the world is simply running out of mineable copper.

For now, copper's strength reflects a market dominated by policy risk and supply constraints, not a classic industrial upswing, an imbalance likely to keep prices elevated and volatile into the new year.

Source: CryptoSlate

South Korea's exports maintained growth momentum in December, easing concerns over global trade protectionism and tariff-related uncertainty that had weighed on the country for much of the year.

The value of shipments adjusted for working-day differences increased 8.7% from a year earlier in December, according to data released Thursday by the custom's office. That compared with a 13.3% gain initially reported for the full month of November.

Unadjusted exports rose 13.4%, and overall imports increased by 4.6%, resulting in a trade surplus of $12.2 billion.

The ongoing growth in exports offers some relief for South Korea after months of negotiations with the US over a trade deal. The agreement by the US to impose an across-the-board 15% tariff on Korean goods brought relief compared with higher duties imposed in the spring, though the level of taxation is still higher than in the period before Donald Trump began his second term as US president.

Strong AI-related demand continues to support Korea's export performance, underscoring the economy's reliance on the global chip cycle.

The trade data also follow a decision in late November by the Bank of Korea to keep its benchmark interest rate at 2.5% as policymakers balance the desire to support the economy against financial stability risks.

Governor Rhee Chang Yong said the board members remain evenly split over the near-term outlook, highlighting a cautious stance on any additional easing.

With exports equivalent to more than 40% of gross domestic product, the year-end resilience may give the central bank more room to stay patient as it monitors risks ranging from household debt to currency volatility.

Source: Bloomberg Europe