Gold, Stocks, Bitcoin: What Investing in Main Asset Classes Will Look Like in 2026

Stocks

Commodity

Summary:

The year 2025 was one of great volatility for global markets, as US tariffs, geopolitical worries and the possibility of an artificial intelligence bubble spooked investors.

The year 2025 was one of great volatility for global markets, as US tariffs, geopolitical worries and the possibility of an artificial intelligence bubble spooked investors. It was also the year that Wall Street was knocked off its perch, as rival markets grew at more than twice the speed.

Once again, gold outshone them all. The precious metal rose about 65 per cent over the year, its best performance since 1979, with prices hitting an all-time high of $4,500 an ounce.

It was a tough year for so-called digital gold, Bitcoin. After nearing a record $125,000 in the autumn, it ended the year around 7 per cent lower at roughly $88,000.

Past performance only tells us so much, though. What really matters is what happens next. So, what does 2026 hold for the major asset classes?

Stocks and shares

Emerging markets beat all comers to rise 25 per cent across 2025, according to Fidelity International. European equities followed at 23 per cent, while Asia Pacific and the UK both climbed about 20 per cent. Japan also did well.

The US market lagged, rising just 10 per cent after gains of more than 20 per cent in each of the previous two years.

It's been a roller coaster of a year, says Jemma Slingo, pensions and investment specialist at Fidelity International. "Yet since the tariff shock in April, investors have largely focused on positives such as easing inflation, lower interest rates and resilient corporate earnings."

Equities climbed despite economic worries, but with talk of a US recession in 2026, that may be harder to sustain. Relief could come from interest rate cuts. Both the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England cut in December, and Shannon Saccocia, chief investment officer for wealth at Neuberger, expects more in 2026.

"This would help reaccelerate subdued economic growth, creating a positive undercurrent to further support risk assets," she says, while warning that policy mistakes remain a risk amid internal Fed divisions.

Another concern is whether the AI boom deflates. Martin Connaghan, senior investment director at Murray International Trust, points to high stock valuations, slowing growth, rising debt and geopolitical uncertainty. "When markets are concentrated and expectations are high, the margin for error is small."

Peter Branner, chief investment officer at Aberdeen Investments, expects US growth to recover as inflation eases. Europe may benefit from fiscal loosening, while China could slow. AI remains a key factor, but he cautions: "As AI-driven equities are getting expensive, investors should consider building further diversification."

Benjamin Melman, chief investment officer at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management, says investors must hold firm in equities in general. "Markets remain expensive, with AI concentrating excesses, but macroeconomic conditions do not justify a massive withdrawal from risk."

Outlook: US tech is no longer the only game in town. Broader diversification looks sensible. More volatility is inevitable.

Gold

Gold's long-term record is extraordinary. It began the millennium at just over $288 an ounce and is up 1,462 per cent since then, turning $10,000 into $156,200.

The rally continued in 2025 as political tension, falling rates, central bank buying and economic uncertainty boosted demand, says Kate Marshall, lead investment analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. "Goldman Sachs estimates central banks will target around 20 per cent of reserves in gold, but China is currently around 8 per cent. That should support the price, but we don't expect the same returns in 2026."

Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com, says gold has worked as an inflation hedge and may struggle if price pressures fall. "But talk of a peak is premature."

A BullionVault survey shows gold investors predicting prices of $5,136 in 2026.

Outlook: Gold has defied sceptics for years. The pace of growth will surely slow, but sheer momentum could drive the price on.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin delivered its usual volatility. It plunged to $75,000 in April during US President Donald Trump's "liberation day" tariff scare, surged to nearly $125,000 in October, then faded as AI valuation fears returned.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, says sentiment has been bruised. "Crypto investors have seen plenty of false dawns in recent months, but recent lows provide a foundation for further gains."

Alex Thorn, head of firm-wide research at Galaxy Digital, says 2026 is one of the hardest years to forecast, with crypto still in a broader bear phase. Bitcoin could even turn "boring", the one thing nobody expects, although Galaxy still sees the price hitting $250,000 in 2027.

Outlook: Bitcoin got a real bounce from US President Donald Trump but must now find other reasons to fly.

Currencies

The US dollar is down nearly 10 per cent this year, and Lukman Otunuga, senior market analyst at FXTM, says: "Its decline reflects a loss of US exceptionalism as tariffs, rate cuts and political noise took their toll."

With the European Central Bank already cutting rates to 2 per cent, the dollar has room to recover if Fed easing continues.

Dagmara Fijalkowski, head of global fixed income currencies at RBC Global Asset Management, says this will be a big boost for one region. "Emerging currencies will continue to be the main beneficiary of further US dollar depreciation."

Outlook: The dollar looks vulnerable in 2026 unless US inflation proves sticky and delays further cuts.

Property

Oliver Salmon, director of Savills World Research, says 2025 marked a turning point for commercial property markets after years of subdued activity. "Capital values have bottomed out, average deal sizes are increasing, and debt is once again contributing positively to returns."

He expects momentum to build in 2026, with global real estate investment forecast to rise 15 per cent to more than $1 trillion.

Outlook: Falling interest rates should support the next leg of the recovery.

Bonds

Arielle Ingrassia, associate director at UK wealth manager Evelyn Partners, says bonds delivered income and stability in 2025, offsetting political and inflationary turbulence. "Crucially, elevated yields meant bonds delivered compelling income, reinforcing their contribution to overall portfolio returns."

Mr Melman warned that with fiscal policy set to be expansionary in the US, Japan and Germany, and government debt and deficits continuing to grow, long-term government bonds look less attractive. "Particularly if political pressure influences central banks."

Outlook: Bonds remain important diversifiers, but yields may drift lower as easing continues.

2026 recovery opportunity?

One major market lagged in 2025: India. Kate Marshall at Hargreaves Lansdown says high expectations and stretched valuations left it exposed when sentiment shifted. "While uncomfortable, this kind of reset is not unusual after a strong run and does not undermine India's longer-term potential," she says.

Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and HSBC all expect Indian equities to rebound and hit new highs in 2026.

Outlook: This year's underperformer could turn things around in 2026.

Source: THENATIONALNEWS

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Glendon

Commodity

Economic

Gold and silver fell on the last trading day of 2025, though both remained on track for the biggest annual gain in more than four decades as a banner year for precious metals drew to a close.

Spot gold hovered around $4,320 an ounce, while silver slid toward $71. The two have seen exceptional volatility in thin post-holiday trading, plunging Monday before recovering Tuesday and dropping again Wednesday. The big swings prompted exchange operator CME Group to raise margin requirements twice.

Both metals are on track for their best year since 1979, supported by strong demand for haven assets amid mounting geopolitical risks and by interest-rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. The so-called debasement trade — triggered by fears of inflation and swelling debt burdens in developed economies — has helped supercharge the scorching rally.

In gold, the bigger market by far, those factors spurred a rush by investors into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds, while central banks extended a years-long buying spree.

Gold is up about 63% this year. In September, it eclipsed an inflation-adjusted peak set 45 years ago — a time when US currency pressures, spiking inflation and an unfolding recession pushed prices to $850. This time around, the record run saw prices smash through $4,000 in early October.

"In my career, it's unprecedented," said John Reade, a market veteran and chief strategist at the World Gold Council. "Unprecedented by the number of new all-time highs, and unprecedented in the performance of gold exceeding the expectations of so many people by so much."

Silver has notched up a gain of more than 140% during the year, driven by speculative buying but also by industrial demand. The metal is used extensively in electronics, solar panels and electric cars. In October, it soared to a record as tariff concerns drove imports into the US, tightening the London market and triggering a historic squeeze.

The new peak was then passed the following month as US rate cuts and speculative fervor drove prices higher. The rally topped out above $80 earlier this week — in part reflecting elevated buying in China.

Yet the latest move swiftly reversed, with the market closing down 9% Monday then swinging the following two days. In response to the extreme volatility, CME Group again raised margins on precious-metal futures, meaning traders must put up more cash to keep their positions open. Some speculators may be forced to shrink or exit their trades — weighing on prices.

"The key driver today is the CME raising margins for the second time in just a few days," said Ross Norman, chief executive officer of Metals Daily, a pricing and analysis website. The higher collateral requirements are "cooling the markets off," he said.

Platinum, Palladium

The enthusiasm for gold and silver has extended into the wider precious metals complex in 2025, with platinum breaking out of a years-long holding pattern to hit a new high.

The metal is on course for a third annual deficit, following disruptions in major producer South Africa, and supply will likely remain tight until there's clarity on whether the Trump administration will impose tariffs.

Prices for silver, platinum and palladium all sagged Wednesday, though there's little sign of enthusiasm waning.

The year's "surprise was how safe-haven metals turned into momentum trades — silver in particular," said Charu Chanana, chief market strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore.

Silver traded down 7.1% at $70.83 an ounce as of 3:20 p.m. in New York. Gold slipped 0.5% to $4,317.41 an ounce, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was up little-changed.

Source: TradingView

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Michelle

Commodity

Economic

Copper closed December 31, 2025 near $5.6 per pound, finishing the year more than 40% higher and marking one of its strongest annual performances on record.

Unlike past rallies tied to booming industrial demand, this surge was fueled primarily by trade positioning and tightening supply, not a broad-based consumption rebound.

Tariff Front-Running Reshapes Global Flows

A defining feature of 2025 was the aggressive relocation of physical copper into the United States. Throughout the second half of the year, traders and manufacturers pulled forward imports to build inventories ahead of expected tariffs from the incoming Trump administration. This pre-emptive buying distorted traditional trade routes.

The result was a sharp drawdown in Asian and European warehouse stocks, while U.S. inventories swelled. Prices responded accordingly, reflecting scarcity outside the U.S. rather than a synchronized pickup in end demand.

Production Constraints Tighten an Already Fragile Market

Supply stress amplified the price impact of these trade maneuvers. In Chile, the world's largest copper producer, output fell to its lowest level in two decades, pressured by declining ore grades and persistent water shortages. Earlier in the year, a major mine closure in Panama removed roughly 1.5% of global supply, further tightening balances.

These disruptions left little buffer in a market already grappling with limited new mine development, turning logistical shocks into outsized price moves.

Demand Signals Remain Muted

Beneath the surface, fundamental demand offered little confirmation of a traditional bull cycle. China's property sectorcontinued to struggle through 2025, and global manufacturing PMIs spent much of Q4 in contraction territory. Outside tariff-driven stockpiling, consumption growth remained subdued.

This disconnect underscores how the 2025 rally was shaped more by who needed copper where, rather than how much copper the global economy was actually using.

Volatility Expected to Spill Into 2026

Looking ahead, analysts expect market distortions to persist. The U.S. premium, the price gap between New York's Comex and London's LME, hit record highs in December 2025, reflecting the extreme pull of metal into the U.S. Goldman Sachs expects this volatility to extend into early 2026 as trade policies are formalized.

Despite weak demand signals, several banks have raised 2026 price forecasts, citing structural scarcity and limited mine supply. Consensus targets for mid-2026 now cluster between $5.60 and $6.00 per pound, driven by a growing view that the world is simply running out of mineable copper.

For now, copper's strength reflects a market dominated by policy risk and supply constraints, not a classic industrial upswing, an imbalance likely to keep prices elevated and volatile into the new year.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Glendon

Forex

Economic

South Korea's exports maintained growth momentum in December, easing concerns over global trade protectionism and tariff-related uncertainty that had weighed on the country for much of the year.

The value of shipments adjusted for working-day differences increased 8.7% from a year earlier in December, according to data released Thursday by the custom's office. That compared with a 13.3% gain initially reported for the full month of November.

Unadjusted exports rose 13.4%, and overall imports increased by 4.6%, resulting in a trade surplus of $12.2 billion.

The ongoing growth in exports offers some relief for South Korea after months of negotiations with the US over a trade deal. The agreement by the US to impose an across-the-board 15% tariff on Korean goods brought relief compared with higher duties imposed in the spring, though the level of taxation is still higher than in the period before Donald Trump began his second term as US president.

Strong AI-related demand continues to support Korea's export performance, underscoring the economy's reliance on the global chip cycle.

The trade data also follow a decision in late November by the Bank of Korea to keep its benchmark interest rate at 2.5% as policymakers balance the desire to support the economy against financial stability risks.

Governor Rhee Chang Yong said the board members remain evenly split over the near-term outlook, highlighting a cautious stance on any additional easing.

With exports equivalent to more than 40% of gross domestic product, the year-end resilience may give the central bank more room to stay patient as it monitors risks ranging from household debt to currency volatility.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Manuel

Commodity

China–U.S. Trade War

Farmers are now learning how much aid they can expect to receive from a $12 billion package that President Donald Trump announced earlier this month.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture released the figures Wednesday for how much aid per acre farmers can plan on for each row crop. The details arrived after most farmers have already met with their bankers to arrange financing for next year's crops and placed orders for the seed and fertilizer they will need. But officials have promised that the payments should arrive by the end of February.

Soybean farmers have been hit especially hard by Trump's trade war with China, which stopped buying any American crops after Trump announced his tariffs this spring. China is the world's largest buyer of soybeans. This aid package is expected to help farmers weather the trade disruptions until China buys more soybeans under an agreement announced in October and until provisions of Trump's massive budget bill take effect later this year.

Soybean farmers will get $30.88 per acre while corn farmers will receive $44.36. Another crop hit hard when China stopped buying was sorghum, and those farmers will get $48.11 per acre. The amounts are based on a USDA formula on the cost of production.

But farmers say the aid won't solve all their problems as they continue to deal with the soaring costs of fertilizer, seeds and labor that make it hard to turn a profit right now. Some agricultural trade groups have said they worry that thousands of farmers could go out of business, but others have said they believe most farmers have the financial resources and equity needed to survive.

Kentucky soybean farmer Caleb Ragland, who was president of the American Soybean Association until recently, said the aid is “a Band-Aid on a deep wound. We need competition and opportunities in the market to make our future brighter.”

The President of the National Corn Growers Association Jed Bower also urged the Trump administration to focus on cultivating additional uses for their crops. Farmers will benefit from having more buyers whether it is for ethanol and animal feed at home or for international markets.

“Corn growers have been sounding the alarm about the fact that farmers have been faced with multiple consecutive years of low corn prices and high input costs,” Bower said. “While this financial assistance is helpful and welcomed, we urgently need the administration and Congress to develop markets in the United States and abroad that will provide growers with more long-term economic certainty.”

Most farmers remain steadfast supporters of Trump even after the disruptions caused by the trade war. They generally support many of his other policies and believe they will get a better trade deal in the end.

These aid payments will add up to $11 billion for row crop farmers who raise corn, soybeans, wheat, sorghum and other crops. Another $1 billion will be put aside for specialty crops as the administration works to better understand the circumstances for those farmers.

After Trump met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea in October, the White House said Beijing had promised to buy at least 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of the calendar year, plus 25 million metric tons a year in each of the next three years. Officials have said China is on track to meet the 12 million metric ton goal by the end of February.

As of Dec. 18, China had bought about 6 million metric tons of soybeans, according to the latest USDA’s weekly report. Separately, the federal agency reported that China since then bought at least three more batches totaling 600,000 metric tons.

Beijing has yet to confirm any commitment to buying 12 million metric tons of soybeans for this season, but the Chinese embassy in Washington said earlier this month that “agricultural trade cooperation between China and the United States is proceeding in an orderly manner.”

The aid payments will be capped at $155,000 per farmer or entity, and only farms that make less than $900,000 in adjusted gross income will be eligible. During the first Trump administration, a number of large farms found ways around the payment limits and collected millions.

The USDA said it would use a formula that estimates production costs to come up with a per-acre payment for each type of crop. The USDA says the average size of the 1.88 million farms nationwide was 466 acres last year, but many farmers are much larger than that as larger operations have continued to buy up neighboring farms over time.

Source: AP

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Manuel

Stocks

Economic

Wall Street indexes closed lower on Wednesday, echoing their world counterparts amid light trading on the last day of 2025, while investors took some profits in precious metals as they crossed the finish line of a roller-coaster twelve months.

The three major U.S. stock indexes ended well in negative territory, content to drift along just below record highs and bask in robust, double-digit annual gains.While all three indexes registered quarterly gains, and the Dow logged a monthly advance, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq posted nominal monthly declines.

"It was a rather tiring year looking back on it, and Liberation Day seems like it was eons ago," said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon in Charlotte, North Carolina, referring to U.S. President Donald Trump's April 2 sweeping tariff policy announcement. "It's frankly hard to find an asset class that did poorly outside of the U.S. dollar."

Wednesday's modest moves cap a whipsaw year marked by geopolitical turbulence, on-again, off-again tariff threats, dollar weakness, and ongoing mania surrounding the artificial intelligence boom."We think the next two years are going to be about the diffusion of AI capabilities throughout the economy," Ladner added. "Understanding that shift from ‘we've got to build this technology’ to ‘we've got to use this technology’ is going to be one of the most important things we can figure out from an investing and an economic analysis standpoint."

Gold and silver continued to consolidate as investors took advantage of the precious metals' remarkable price jumps this year, with gold hitting a 46-year peak and silver seeing a record annual surge.

Looking to the coming year, investors will seek clues into the U.S. Federal Reserve's path forward on interest rates as the flow of economic data returns to normal in the aftermath of the longest-ever federal government shutdown, with an imminent change of leadership as Jerome Powell nears the end of his stint as Fed Chair.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 303.77 points, or 0.63%, to 48,063.29, the S&P 500 (.SPX) fell 50.74 points, or 0.74%, to 6,845.50 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) fell 177.09 points, or 0.76%, to 23,241.99.

European shares inched lower but remained just south of all-time highs, capping their biggest annual percentage gains in four years, driven by lower interest rates, Germany's fiscal support and a rotation away from high-priced U.S. tech-related shares.

"When we look back on 2025, international stock markets dominated U.S. equity performance," Ladner said. "(That) is not something we've seen very often and is rather notable."

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) fell 5.37 points, or 0.53%, to 1,014.79.

The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) index fell 0.1%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3) fell 1.62 points, or 0.07%.

Emerging market stocks (.MSCIEF) rose 2.37 points, or 0.17%, to 1,404.90. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) closed higher by 0.05%, to 722.41, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 187.44 points, or 0.37%, to 50,339.48. US Stocks Clinch Double-Digit Annual Gains, Capping a Stellar Year_1

US Stocks Clinch Double-Digit Annual Gains, Capping a Stellar Year_1

TREASURY YIELDS RISE, DOLLAR SUFFERS BIGGEST ANNUAL DROP SINCE 2017

U.S. Treasury yields moved higher following a labor market report showing an unexpected dip in applications for unemployment benefits.

The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 3.5 basis points to 4.163%, from 4.128% late on Tuesday.

The 30-year bond yield rose 2.7 basis points to 4.8405% from 4.813% late on Tuesday.

The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, rose 2.1 basis points to 3.475%, from 3.454% late on Tuesday.

The dollar inched higher but remained on course for a year-on-year decline as the greenback was weighed down by interest rate cuts, fiscal worries and Trump's erratic tariff policies.

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.01% to 98.25, with the euro up 0.02% at $1.1748.

Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.17% to 156.65.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 0.70% to $87,581.56. Ethereum rose 0.22% to $2,972.29.

Crude oil prices slid as oversupply concerns offset geopolitical risks, registering their biggest annual drop since 2020.

U.S. crude fell 0.91% to settle at $57.42 per barrel, while Brent settled at $60.85 per barrel, down 0.78% on the day.

Spot gold fell 0.78% to $4,312.39 an ounce, while spot silver dropped 7.1% to $71.04 per ounce.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Commodity

Oil closed out the year with its steepest annual loss since 2020 as the market confronts wide-ranging geopolitical risks and steadily rising supplies across the globe. A punishing surplus is expected to weigh on prices in 2026.

West Texas Intermediate fell 0.9% to settle at $57.42, completing a 20% decline for the year. In the short-term, traders are focused on an upcoming OPEC+ meeting and President Donald Trump’s policies toward major producers Russia, Iran and Venezuela.

But the long-term narrative has remained consistent: Oil markets are oversupplied. Both the International Energy Agency and the US government see production exceeding consumption by just over 2 million barrels a day in 2025 and that surplus worsening in the coming year.

OPEC+ roiled markets earlier this year when it raised output, reversing its longstanding policy of defending prices in an apparent effort to reclaim market share. This came as countries including Brazil and Guyana were boosting supply and the US pumped at record levels. The producer group is expected to hold off on output hikes during talks this weekend. Oil Posts Deepest Annual Loss Since 2020 on Surplus Concerns_1

Oil Posts Deepest Annual Loss Since 2020 on Surplus Concerns_1

The drop in crude has helped to reduce inflationary pressures, helping central bankers as they seek to contain price gains. The US Federal Reserve cut rates three times in 2025, and minutes from policymakers’ last meeting showed most officials saw more reductions as appropriate. Still, it also threatens to reshape the budgets of major oil-producing nations and companies.

“The oil market is set to remain oversupplied into 2026, with strong non-OPEC production from the US, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina outpacing uneven global demand,” said Kaynat Chainwala, an analyst at Kotak Securities Ltd. Prices should stay range-bound between $50 and $70, with risks over Venezuelan or Russian supply remaining supportive, she added.

In the US, a weekly government report on Thursday showed that overall petroleum stocks were at their highest since October, with a strong build in refined products outpacing the draw in crude oil.

China Storage

Despite the drop for prices this year, a clutch of factors have ensured that crude futures haven’t fallen further. Prices held within a range above $65 for much of the summer in spite of the swelling production, as much of the oversupply ended up in storage tanks in China, far away from the pricing hubs for crude futures. In contrast, western facilities remained relatively empty, with the tank farms at Cushing, Oklahoma, — the pricing point for West Texas Intermediate futures — heading for its lowest annual average storage level since 2008.

Output of gassy types of oil like propane has also soared as US shale fields produce lighter types of fuel. Those volumes also have limited impacts on crude pricing.

Geopolitics will also help to shape the market outlook into next year. The US is driving efforts to end the war in Ukraine, an outcome that could ease the volume of Russian oil building up at sea. The US is also seizing tankers carrying Venezuelan cargoes, and the South American nation has had to reduce output in recent days as a result.

Trump also said this week that he would strike Iran again if it rebuilds its nuclear program. Brent futures surged above $80 after he authorized attacks on Iran earlier this year but slid rapidly when it became clear the conflict was ending.