OPEC Raises Oil Output As Group Begins Bumper Set of Increases

U.K. economic growth is expected to be stifled by an ongoing squeeze on the country's public finances, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said on Tuesday.

The U.K. is expected to grow 1.3% in 2025 before slowing to 1% in 2026, the OECD said in its latest global economic outlook report, "dampened by heightened trade tensions, tighter financial conditions, and elevated uncertainty."

The organization projected that growth will "remain modest," impacted by bolstered trade tensions and uncertainty surrounding consumer confidence and business sentiment.

"The drag on external demand, private consumption, and business investment is projected to more than offset the positive effects of last autumn's budgetary measures on government consumption and investment," the OECD said.

While the budget deficit is expected to improve from 5.3% in 2025 to 4.5% in 2026, according to OECD forecasts, debt interest spending remains high. Public debt is set to continue rising and to reach 104% of GDP [gross domestic product] in 2026, the OECD said.

The Labour government and Finance Minister Rachel Reeves have repeatedly said their priority is to boost growth and get the country's public finances in order. In government spending plans announced last October, Reeves committed to self-imposed fiscal rules that day-to-day spending must be met by tax revenues, pledging public debt will fall as a share of economic output by 2029-30.

She has repeatedly said the fiscal rules are "non-negotiable" despite the measures leaving her little wiggle room to act in the case of unexpected economic shocks, amid lackluster growth for the U.K., higher borrowing costs and wider global trade tensions and uncertainty for businesses.

While the OECD agreed that "fiscal prudence is required as the monetary stance is easing gradually," it cautioned that "efforts to rebuild buffers should be stepped up in the face of strongly constrained budgetary policy and substantial downward risks to growth, while productivity-enhancing public investments should be preserved."

The government's "very thin fiscal buffers" might not prove sufficient to offer support without breaching fiscal rules if further shocks materialize.

Spending review ahead

The report comes just over a week ahead of U.K. Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivering her first "Spending Review," in which she will set out long-term public spending plans for government departments.

Since coming to power just over a year ago, the Labour government has already announced a raft of welfare spending cuts, employer tax rises and planning reforms designed to reduce red tape and boost infrastructure projects and housing development. It also announced an increase in defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 that will be funded through cuts in overseas aid.

After restricting public borrowing and ruling out further tax rises, there is now mounting speculation that Reeves could announce further budget cuts in the spending review on June 11.

The OECD urged the government to stick to its plans to strengthen public finances and to deliver on its ambitious fiscal plans, including through the upcoming review.

"A balanced approach should combine targeted spending cuts, including closing tax loopholes; revenue-raising measures such as re-evaluating council tax bands based on updated property values; and the removal of distortions in the tax system," it noted.

It also called on the U.K. to reverse a decline in labor market participation by implementing pro-work reforms to the welfare state "while protecting the most vulnerable."

Source: CNBC

Understanding global currency movements is crucial for anyone tracking financial markets, including those in the cryptocurrency space, as macro trends often influence investor sentiment across assets. Recently, the focus has been on the Asia FX Market, where activity has remained relatively muted, particularly concerning the performance of the Australian Dollar.

Why is the Australian Dollar Softening?

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has experienced downward pressure recently, a trend closely watched by traders globally. Several factors contribute to this softening, primarily centered around domestic economic conditions and the outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Unlike some other major currencies that have seen volatility, the AUD’s recent moves appear more directly tied to specific local developments.

• Weaker-than-expected economic indicators.
• Expectations surrounding future RBA interest rate decisions.
• Global risk sentiment, although local factors seem dominant currently.

This performance contrasts with periods when the AUD acted more as a risk-on currency, heavily influenced by global growth prospects and commodity prices. The current narrative is more about internal economic dynamics.

What’s Happening in the Broader Asia FX Market?

Beyond the AUD, the wider Asia FX Market has seen a generally muted trading environment. Many regional currencies have traded within narrow ranges, showing limited directional conviction. This could be attributed to a balance of global factors, such as US dollar strength or weakness, and specific country-level economic developments or central bank actions.

While the AUD has shown distinct weakness, other currencies in the region might be reacting to different pressures. For instance, some might be influenced by trade data with major partners, capital flows, or domestic inflation trends. The overall picture is one of caution, with investors perhaps waiting for clearer signals from major global economies or central banks.

Currently, a lack of strong catalysts, either positive or negative, seems to be keeping volatility suppressed across much of the region, with the AUD being a notable exception due to its specific domestic issues.

How Does RBA Monetary Policy Impact AUD?

The stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is a primary driver of the Australian Dollar‘s value. Central banks influence currency values through interest rate decisions, quantitative easing/tightening, and forward guidance on future policy intentions. The recent tone from the RBA has been perceived as dovish, meaning they are less inclined to raise rates further and potentially more open to cutting rates sooner than previously anticipated or compared to other central banks.

This dovish posture typically makes a country’s currency less attractive to foreign investors seeking higher yields. When the RBA signals potential rate cuts, the expected return on Australian dollar-denominated assets decreases, reducing demand for the currency. Conversely, a hawkish stance (signaling rate hikes) tends to strengthen a currency.

The market carefully analyzes every RBA statement and speech for clues about the future path of interest rates. Any hint of a shift towards easing monetary policy can trigger a sell-off in the AUD, while unexpected hawkishness can lead to a rally. Understanding the nuances of RBA Monetary Policy is essential for predicting AUD movements.

Analyzing Recent Economic Data Australia

The dovish shift in RBA Monetary Policy is largely a reaction to recent Economic Data Australia has released. Data points such as inflation, retail sales, employment figures, and GDP growth provide the RBA with insights into the health of the economy and inflationary pressures. If these indicators suggest slowing growth or easing inflation, the RBA has more room, or indeed feels pressure, to consider lowering interest rates to stimulate economic activity.

Recent data releases that have likely influenced the AUD’s softening and the RBA’s dovish tone include:

• Inflation figures showing a consistent decline, moving closer to the RBA’s target range.
• Retail sales data indicating weaker consumer spending than expected.
• Potentially softer labor market data, although employment has remained relatively resilient.
• GDP growth numbers suggesting a slowing pace of economic expansion.

These data points collectively paint a picture of an economy that may be cooling, providing the RBA with the justification for a less restrictive monetary policy stance. Traders react swiftly to these releases, adjusting their expectations for future rate hikes or cuts, which directly impacts the Currency Performance of the AUD.

What’s Next for Currency Performance in Asia?

The outlook for Currency Performance across Asia, including the Australian Dollar, remains heavily dependent on a confluence of factors. Globally, the trajectory of US interest rates and the performance of the US dollar will continue to play a significant role. Domestically, in countries like Australia, the focus will remain squarely on incoming economic data and the subsequent signals from central banks like the RBA regarding their monetary policy path.

For the AUD specifically, key watchpoints include:

• Future inflation reports: Will inflation continue to decline, reinforcing the dovish view?
• Employment data: Will the labor market remain strong, or show signs of weakening?
• RBA communications: Any explicit guidance on the timing of potential rate cuts.
• Global commodity prices: As a major commodity exporter, AUD remains sensitive to these movements.

For the broader Asia FX Market, the key will be how regional economies navigate global economic conditions and whether domestic policies can provide stability or growth impulses. Investors will look for signs of recovery in major economies like China and assess how central banks across the region respond to inflation pressures and growth needs.

In conclusion, the recent softening of the Australian Dollar is a direct consequence of weaker Economic Data Australia has reported and the increasingly dovish tone from the RBA Monetary Policy makers. While the broader Asia FX Market remains largely subdued, the AUD’s specific challenges highlight the importance of domestic fundamentals and central bank guidance in driving Currency Performance. Traders and investors will need to closely monitor these factors for potential shifts in the current trends.

Source: CryptoSlate

Swati Dhingra, a policymaker at the Bank of England, expressed concern on Tuesday about potential downside risks for the U.K.’s inflation outlook.

She suggested that the recent spike in inflation was primarily due to rising energy bills, rather than a fundamental shift in supply and demand pressures.

Dhingra released her annual report to Parliament’s Treasury Committee, in which she stated, "On balance, the risks to inflation and growth appear to me to be tilted to the downside."

She pointed to household energy bills and past energy shocks as the main contributors to the near-term increase in headline inflation.

Regulated price increases also played a role, but to a lesser extent.

In her report, Dhingra emphasized that these factors have more influence on the current inflation situation than any imbalance in underlying supply and demand pressures.

This perspective suggests a cautious outlook on the U.K.’s economic climate, particularly in relation to inflation and growth.

Source: Investing

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Source: Bloomberg

Euro zone inflation eased below the European Central Bank's target last month, data showed on Tuesday, underpinning expectations for another interest rate cut this week, even as global trade tensions fuel longer-term price pressures.

Consumer price inflation in the 20 countries sharing the euro slowed to 1.9% in May from 2.2% a month earlier, below expectations for 2.0% on a fall in energy prices and a sharp decline in services inflation.

A more closely watched reading on underlying inflation, or prices excluding volatile fuel and food prices, meanwhile slowed to 2.3% from 2.7%, driven by a slowdown in services price growth to 3.2% from 4.0%, Eurostat, the EU's statistics agency said.

The ECB has cut interest rates seven times since last June and another move on Thursday is almost fully priced in given muted wage growth, easing energy prices, a strong euro and lukewarm economic growth, factors which all point in the direction of easing inflation.

Price pressures are so weak that some economists even expect inflation to keep sinking below the ECB's 2% target this year and not rebounding until sometime in 2026.

OPPOSING TRENDS

This raises a dilemma for the ECB because the short and the longer-term outlooks for prices differ greatly since inflation could come under upward pressure from a host of factors further out.

This is why investors think the ECB will pause with rate cuts after June and only make one more cut this year, possibly in the autumn.

Interest rates are also firmly in the 'neutral' territory now, where they neither slow economic growth nor stimulate it, an argument for some to take a step back and see how erratic U.S. trade policy will impact growth and prices.

Policy hawks have also warned that inflation could go back up soon, given unusually high geopolitical tensions.

A trade war, increased tariffs, deglobalisation and the realignment of corporate value chains are all expected to increase prices.

In addition, the continued decline of the working age population and investments related to defence and climate change could also raise price pressures.

How these opposing trends will impact ECB policy is unclear for now but the ECB generally looks through short-term price volatility since it targets inflation in the medium term, a loosely defined concept that normally means one to two years out.

Policymakers, however, could be forced to intervene if they think that a dip in prices is also pulling down or 'de-anchoring' longer-term expectations.

Source: Yahoo Finance