Oil Prices Edge Higher on US-China Tariff Truce Extension and Easing Supply Risk

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

Crude prices rose Tuesday as the extension of the US-China tariff pause improved trade sentiment and reduced concerns over fuel demand, while hopes grew that upcoming US-Russia talks could ease geopolitical supply risks...

Tariff Truce Supports Oil Demand Outlook

Brent crude gained 0.39% to $66.89 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate rose 0.34% to $64.18 after Washington and Beijing agreed to extend their tariff truce by 90 days. The move avoids triple-digit duties on Chinese goods and comes as US retailers prepare for the holiday season. Analysts noted that by reducing the immediate risk of an economic slowdown in the world’s two largest oil-consuming nations, the extension has supported expectations for stable fuel demand.

The truce follows months of tariff escalation that had threatened to curtail global trade flows and pressure energy consumption. Market participants now see the pause as a potential bridge toward a broader agreement that could avert what many feared would become a near-trade embargo between the two economies.

Geopolitical Supply Risks Ease Ahead of US-Russia Talks

Attention is also turning to the August 15 meeting in Alaska between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, aimed at securing a Ukraine peace agreement. The US has threatened secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil, including China and India, if no deal is reached. However, the likelihood of such sanctions has diminished ahead of the summit, easing fears of sudden disruptions to Russian crude flows.

ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes noted that a peace agreement would remove a key supply risk that has hung over oil markets for months. Washington has also been pressuring Beijing to scale back Russian oil purchases, with Trump hinting at possible tariffs if compliance is not forthcoming.

Beyond geopolitics, traders are eyeing US inflation data due later in the day for clues on the Federal Reserve’s rate path. Signs of cooling inflation could bolster expectations for interest rate cuts, potentially supporting oil prices by improving the economic growth outlook. Conversely, a hotter reading could dampen sentiment by reinforcing concerns about demand resilience.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

Avoiding a Tariff Shock

The extension, signed by President Donald Trump on Monday and confirmed by China’s Xinhua news agency, came just hours before a deadline that would have seen US tariffs on Chinese goods jump from 30% to 54% and Chinese tariffs on US exports rise from 10% to 34%. The agreement maintains current rates while discussions continue, offering relief to businesses and consumers who would have faced higher costs from an immediate escalation.

The truce follows July negotiations in Sweden, during which Chinese officials indicated a deal had been reached. However, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stressed that no agreement was final without presidential approval. Trump later described the relationship with President Xi Jinping as “very good” and trade discussions as “constructive.”

Tariffs, Russian Oil, and Geopolitical Leverage

The White House fact sheet noted that talks have also touched on politically sensitive issues, including China’s continued purchases of Russian oil. Under US legislation, Trump could impose tariffs of up to 500% on such imports. The administration has already threatened India with a 50% tariff for similar purchases, sparking criticism from New Delhi over perceived selective enforcement.

Former US trade negotiator Wendy Cutler suggested that if Beijing agrees to curb Russian oil imports, it would do so “quietly and gradually” rather than through a high-profile announcement.

Lingering Disputes and Strategic Frictions

Several contentious issues remain unresolved. US officials have raised concerns over China’s reported $15 billion in sales of dual-use technology to Russia, as well as purchases of sanctioned Iranian oil. Another sticking point is China’s commitment to increasing rare earth magnet exports; Trump has accused Beijing of failing to meet its pledges.

In addition, Washington is pressing for the sale of TikTok to a US-based owner under a congressional deadline, threatening a ban if no transfer occurs. These disputes underline the complexity of reaching a comprehensive agreement beyond the current tariff suspension.

The extension maintains a fragile equilibrium in US-China trade relations, giving negotiators space to pursue broader concessions while avoiding an immediate shock to global supply chains. However, unresolved strategic and commercial tensions mean the risk of renewed escalation remains. US equity markets closed lower Monday, with investors focused on upcoming July inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s rate path and broader market sentiment.

Source: CNN

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Data Expectations and Market Positioning

The July Consumer Price Index (CPI), due Tuesday, is forecast to rise 0.2% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, a slight acceleration from June’s 2.7%. While the consensus anticipates only a modest uptick, market reaction may be negative regardless of the outcome. Michael Brown of Pepperstone notes that investors are positioned for a September Fed rate cut, but a “hot” inflation print could undermine those expectations, while a “cold” print could amplify fears of economic slowdown.

If inflation runs hotter than expected, it could signal that President Trump’s tariffs are feeding into consumer prices, complicating the Fed’s rate-cut calculus. Investors, currently pricing an 86.5% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in September (CME FedWatch), might reassess the likelihood of near-term easing. Brown argues this scenario poses the larger immediate risk to equities, as it questions the September policy shift and reinforces headwinds from slowing growth.

Conversely, weaker-than-expected CPI could reinforce concerns raised by July’s disappointing jobs report which showed soft employment growth and significant downward revisions for previous months that the economy is losing momentum. Justin Weidner of Deutsche Bank suggests such a print could even push the Fed toward a larger 50-basis-point cut, but in the short term it might still prompt a risk-off market reaction before investors pivot back to easing expectations.

Tariffs, Inflation Trends, and Policy Signaling

Natalie Gallagher of Board anticipates a 2.9% year-on-year reading, above consensus, and warns this could be the start of a sustained upward inflation trend as tariff impacts filter through supply chains. She notes that the absence of such pressures would imply weak demand and limited pricing power an equally concerning signal for growth.

The Fed remains cautious given recent history, with policymakers mindful of being caught off guard by unexpectedly persistent inflation. This backdrop makes Chair Jerome Powell’s messaging at the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium critical for shaping rate expectations into year-end.

The CPI report’s dual-risk nature means equity, bond, and currency markets could all see heightened volatility regardless of the print’s direction. While a soft reading might produce only a short-lived sell-off, a hotter reading could generate more sustained equity weakness as rate-cut optimism fades. The next few weeks’ data flow and Fed commentary will be decisive in determining whether September delivers a modest cut, a larger move, or a delay in easing.

Source: Business Insider

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Business Confidence Strengthens Despite Global Uncertainty

The National Australia Bank’s latest survey shows business confidence climbing to +7 in July from +5 in June, marking a three-year peak. Business conditions eased slightly to +5 from +7, but remain firmly in positive territory. NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld noted that the data point to improving activity through Q2, with global economic concerns having little impact on domestic hiring and investment plans.

The services sector continues to lead the expansion, with both consumer-facing and business service industries showing solid momentum. In contrast, retail and wholesale sectors remain under strain, reflecting softer demand and competitive pressures.

Potential Boost from Monetary Policy

Sentiment may have been buoyed by expectations of monetary easing, with the Reserve Bank of Australia widely anticipated to cut the cash rate to 3.60% the lowest in two years at its policy meeting on Tuesday. Lower borrowing costs could further support business investment and consumer spending in the months ahead.

The survey’s business sales index fell 3 points to +11 in July after a sharp 9-point rise in June, while profitability dipped 2 points to +2. The employment index also eased to +1, suggesting some caution in hiring. This aligns with official labour market data showing unemployment unexpectedly rising to 4.3% in June, its highest since late 2021, raising concerns about a potential softening in job creation.

Inflationary Pressures Still Evident

Despite the broader improvement in sentiment, cost pressures remain a key challenge. Quarterly growth in retail prices accelerated to 1.1% in July from 0.5% in June, while producer prices rose 0.9%. These readings indicate that while economic growth is holding up, the persistence of inflation in certain sectors could complicate the RBA’s policy path if price stability goals remain under threat.

The NAB survey suggests Australia’s economic momentum is intact, supported by services and construction resilience. However, the combination of rising costs, a potentially softening labour market, and uneven sectoral performance means policymakers will need to balance growth support with vigilance over inflation. Businesses, particularly in retail and wholesale, may need to adapt strategies to manage margin pressures while capitalizing on improved demand conditions.

Source: Reuters

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Forex

Dollar Holds Gains on Cautious Positioning Before CPI

The US dollar index hovered at 98.497 in early Asian trading, holding its recent two-session gain of 0.5%. Traders are positioning cautiously ahead of July’s US core CPI release, expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month and lift the annual rate to 3%. A stronger-than-expected reading could challenge current market pricing, which assigns an 89% probability to a quarter-point Fed cut on September 17.

Analysts at TD Securities note that an upside CPI surprise could prompt a modest dollar bounce, as it may undermine expectations of a full September cut. Conversely, a downside surprise is unlikely to significantly shift Fed rate pricing unless accompanied by further labor market deterioration, which policymakers see as a more compelling catalyst for larger cuts.

Fed Policy Outlook and Tariff Impact Risks

Recent signals from the Fed have emphasized growing concerns over the labor market, with officials indicating openness to policy easing as early as September. However, if data suggest Trump’s tariffs are adding to price pressures, the Fed could opt to delay cutting rates. The market remains sensitive to the potential inflationary pass-through from trade policy, particularly amid ongoing tariff negotiations with China.

The dollar edged 0.1% higher to 148.28 yen, while the euro held steady at $1.1615. The Chinese yuan traded flat at 7.1935 per dollar offshore, with limited market reaction to Trump’s extension of the US-China tariff truce for another 90 days a widely anticipated move. The extension maintains a pause in sharply higher duties and is seen as buying time for a potential trade deal.

Negotiations continue against the backdrop of semiconductor export licensing arrangements, with Nvidia and AMD reportedly agreeing to remit 15% of China sales revenues to the US government to secure licenses.

Australian Dollar and RBA Outlook

The Australian dollar traded at $0.6518, little changed ahead of the RBA’s policy meeting. Markets largely expect a 25-basis-point cut, following weaker-than-expected Q2 inflation data and a 3½-year high in unemployment. The possibility of a surprise outcome is heightened by recent changes in the RBA’s decision-making framework, which caught traders off guard when rates were held steady last month.

Bitcoin was steady near $118,845 after Monday’s rally to $122,308.25, just shy of its record high from mid-July. Market sentiment across risk assets remains closely tied to the CPI print, which could influence both currency direction and broader risk appetite.

Source: Reuters

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Tariff Truce Supports Regional Sentiment

The extension of the US-China tariff pause, confirmed Monday by both governments, removed the immediate threat of triple-digit duties on Chinese goods. While widely anticipated, the move reassured markets that the fragile status quo in trade relations remains intact. Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP, noted that the decision carries “no immediate implications for investment markets,” but it does allow investors to focus on other macroeconomic drivers without the near-term risk of a tariff shock.

The tariff reprieve follows months of tit-for-tat duties that peaked earlier this year before talks in Geneva, London, and Stockholm rolled back the most extreme measures. The latest extension sustains a tariff environment of 30% on US imports from China and 10% on Chinese imports from the US, keeping trade channels open while broader negotiations continue.

Equity Market Performance Across Asia

Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2% to a record high as markets reopened after a holiday, propelled by strong performances in technology stocks and positive global equity trends. Australia’s benchmark index also reached an all-time peak ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting, where markets expect a 25-basis-point rate cut and possibly further easing later in the year.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan posted modest gains, with Chinese blue chips flat and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipping 0.1% in early trading. Market ranges have been contained in recent weeks as traders weigh the possibility of a lasting US-China trade accord against the risk of a relapse into tariff escalation.

Macro Data and Central Bank Policy in Focus

Investor attention is now turning to a dense calendar of economic events. In the US, July’s core consumer price index (CPI) forecast to rise 0.3% month-on-month versus June’s 0.2% will be released later Tuesday. A softer-than-expected reading could lift small-cap equities, while a stronger print may temper expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Current market pricing anticipates at least two Fed cuts in 2025, though J.P. Morgan projects four consecutive reductions beginning in September.

In Australia, the RBA is widely expected to cut rates today, with guidance on the pace and scope of future easing under close scrutiny. Oliver notes that the “uncertainties are around its guidance” on whether the central bank sees additional scope for cuts and the speed at which it might proceed.

Gold traded at $3,354 per ounce after falling 1.6% Monday when Trump confirmed tariffs would not be applied to imported gold bars. Oil prices were steady ahead of the August 15 meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, where discussions are aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. While the market is not expecting a breakthrough, analysts warn that any shift in geopolitical tone could marginally affect commodities and emerging market assets.

Source: Reuters

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MarketPulse by OANDA Group

Cryptocurrency

Forex

Economic

This weekend saw some explosive buying in digital assets, propulsed by Ethereum breaking above its previous highs.After touching $4,000, a cascade of Saturday buying took the second largest crypto to $4,350 highs.Ether is now consolidating around the $4,200 key handle – A consolidation at its highs is a more bullish sign, however for the Crypto Market to run higher, Participants will now look at the leading Crypto.

Bitcoin actually caught up to the ETH rally on Sunday evening and in a swift rally, touched $122,310, $900 shy of its all-time high record.The failure to breach new highs has brought some profit taking, prompting a BTC analysis to see if this top has the potential to be a longer-term top or if there is still the potential for new all-time highs.Cryptocurrencies have been getting a boost from growing doubts on the US Economy amid the imposition of the infamous Trump tariffs, and getting further support from accommodative US crypto policies.

A daily overlook on the Crypto Market

Bitcoin Rejects Test Of All-Time Highs, A Double Top In The Making?_1

Crypto Daily Performance, August 11, 2025 – Source: Finviz

Some relatively strong profit taking is happening on altcoins but this doesn’t seem to be as strong of a correction for Bitcoin and ETH which have been outshining their competitors.As long as both ETH and BTC hold their current highs, the market shouldn’t show any signs of concerns – but the relative strength of both relative to minor coins could be an interesting study for the upcoming cycle.

Bitcoin Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Daily Chart

Bitcoin Rejects Test Of All-Time Highs, A Double Top In The Making?_2

Bitcoin Daily Chart, August 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Looking at the daily picture, we see the Bitcoin establishing a range in the $113,000 to $120,000 range – Ranges close to the al-time highs are typically good signs for prolonged upward action.However, today and tomorrow’s daily candles will provide huge technical information on if a double top will emerge or not after the overnight session’s higher wick.As long as the lower bound of the range holds (further supported by the 110,000 to $112,00 support zone), Bitcoin still has a chance to mark new cycle all-time highs.

Bitcoin 4H Chart

Bitcoin Rejects Test Of All-Time Highs, A Double Top In The Making?_3

Bitcoin 4H Chart, August 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Looking closer, we see the most recent highs acting as a potential break-retest of the July upwards trendline.Rejecting below the $115,000 Support would confirm a break-retest which would point towards the beginning of a worst-case scenario for Bitcoin as this would come with a failed double top and would indicate that buyers haven’t had enough strength to even retest the previous ATH.This scenario is for now still a bit far, therefore the rest is to see if Bitcoin holds around the 119,000 to 120,000 Pivot zone – Consolidating here gives it more chance to retest the ATH and potentially break higher

Key levels of interest for Bitcoin:

Resistance levels:

● All-time Highs to break 123,150

● Most recent highs 122,300

● Major Resistance 121,000 to 122,000

● 126,500 to 128,000 Potential Resistance

Support levels:

● Immediate Pivot Between $115 ,000 to $116,500 (Confluence with 4H MA 50)

● $113,000 Mini Support and weekend lows

● Major Support Zone previous ATH 110,000 to 112,000

Bitcoin 1H Chart

Bitcoin Rejects Test Of All-Time Highs, A Double Top In The Making?_4

Bitcoin 1H Chart, August 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The action is still very balanced in the 1H Chart –

We spot more details of this morning’s selloff rejecting the July upward trendline on a break-retest technical pattern, but with the 1H RSI back to neutral, it will be essential to see where players take the prices.Tomorrow’s US CPI will have sure implications for the upcoming price action and participants may no want to move their pawns too much before.In the meantime, a cup and handle pattern is in the development. If buyers do trade on this technical setup, a measured-move rule of this pattern would point to $125,500 prices.