Oil Prices Climb as Iran Protests Fuel Supply Fears

Oil prices pushed higher for a fourth consecutive session in Asian trading on Tuesday, driven by mounting fears of supply disruptions from key geopolitical hotspots.

Brent crude futures for March delivery climbed 0.4% to $64.10 a barrel, a level not seen in over seven weeks. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures saw a similar 0.4% gain, reaching a one-month high of $59.70 a barrel.

Iran Unrest Shakes Global Oil Supply Outlook

The primary catalyst for the rally is the escalating anti-government unrest in Iran, a major OPEC producer. The demonstrations, the largest in years, have turned violent, with reports of significant casualties as security forces respond.

This internal turmoil has introduced a substantial risk premium into the market. The situation has drawn a sharp response from the United States, with President Donald Trump warning of potential military action if Iranian authorities continue using lethal force.

Further escalating economic pressure, Trump announced plans for a 25% tariff on any nation conducting business with Tehran. This move puts a spotlight on major buyers like China. "Whether this secondary tariff threat is sufficient to push China away from Iranian oil remains to be seen," noted analysts at ING in a research note.

President Trump is reportedly scheduled to meet with senior advisers on Tuesday to weigh his options regarding Iran.

Compounding Pressure from Russian Export Disruptions

Supply anxieties are not confined to the Middle East. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to impact Russia's oil export capabilities, adding another layer of concern for the market.

Ukrainian attacks have targeted Russian oil facilities and export hubs, including the critical Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal near Novorossiysk.

According to Bloomberg, this will put significant pressure on Kazakh oil exports this month. Shipments from the CPC terminal are now projected to be between 800,000 and 900,000 barrels per day—approximately 45% below original forecasts.

Venezuela Prepares for a Potential Market Re-entry

While supply risks are dominating headlines, developments in another OPEC member, Venezuela, could eventually add barrels back to the market. Following recent political shifts and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro, the country is preparing to resume oil exports after a period of disruption.

President Trump announced last week that Caracas is expected to transfer up to 50 million barrels of oil to the United States, a move that could eventually ease global supply tightness if it materializes.