Oil News: OPEC+ Output Hike Sparks Bearish Crude Outlook and Supply Fears

Commodity

Summary:

Oil prices dropped as OPEC+ raised output again, fueling supply surplus fears amid weak demand. Forecasts were cut, and bearish sentiment dominates unless demand shows clear signs of recovery.

OPEC+ Supply Surge Pressures Oil Prices as Market Eyes Demand Outlook

Crude oil futures opened sharply lower on Monday, as traders reacted to OPEC+’s decision to accelerate output hikes, stoking concerns of a growing supply surplus in an already fragile demand environment. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) briefly dipped to $55.30 before finding support just above the long-term level at $55.55, narrowly avoiding a retest of the April 9 low at $54.48.

OPEC+ Output Acceleration Weighs on Market Sentiment

OPEC+ announced over the weekend it would increase crude production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June, marking the second consecutive monthly hike. This move lifts total production additions to 960,000 bpd for April through June—roughly 44% of the 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts made since 2022. Saudi Arabia, the group’s de facto leader, is reportedly pushing for faster unwinding of cuts to pressure non-compliant members like Iraq and Kazakhstan.

The decision added immediate downside pressure to oil markets, with both Brent and WTI falling over $1 per barrel in early trading. As the session progressed, oil futures began clawing back some losses. However, the bearish tone remains dominant given heightened supply concerns.

Demand Uncertainty Compounds Bearish Tone

Traders remain wary of the demand side of the equation. ING cited ongoing demand uncertainty driven by tariff risks and weak refined fuel consumption, particularly in Asia. Vortexa data shows a 150 million barrel build in global onshore and floating crude inventories since mid-February, reinforcing the surplus narrative.

Adding barrels into a demand-constrained market has compressed the Brent futures curve. The prompt spread narrowed to just 10 cents per barrel, down from 47 cents the previous session, and briefly dipped into contango—a bearish market structure where future prices exceed spot levels.

Forecasts Cut as Market Reassesses Fundamentals

Investment banks have revised their oil prices projections in response to OPEC+’s move. Barclays cut its 2025 Brent forecast by $4 to $66, while ING now expects Brent to average $65 this year, down from $70. Analysts at Saxo Bank noted that Saudi Arabia’s push appears tactical—meant to both punish quota violations and put pressure on U.S. shale producers.

Bearish Oil Price Outlook Persists

Technically, WTI’s failure to break below $55.30 suggests some support, but bearish momentum persists unless prices reclaim resistance at $59.67. With OPEC+ bringing more barrels online and inventories swelling, traders are bracing for further downside unless demand signals improve. The oil prices forecast remains bearish in the near term, with supply concerns outweighing any tentative signs of a rebound.

source : fxempire

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Vietnam Among Priority Countries in U.S. Trade Negotiations

Speaking at the opening of the 9th session of the 15th National Assembly on May 5, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh confirmed that Vietnam is one of six countries selected by the United States for expedited tariff negotiations. The first negotiation round will commence on May 7, following the technical delegation’s arrival in Washington on May 1.

The move comes as the global economy faces heightened volatility, with President Donald Trump’s high reciprocal tariffs creating ripple effects across global supply chains. These tariffs were recently suspended for 90 days—except for China—and temporarily adjusted to a 10% rate to allow for bilateral talks.

The Vietnamese government has responded promptly and strategically, aiming to protect legitimate national interests and foster balanced and sustainable trade. In preparation for the talks, Vietnam is implementing a new decree on strategic trade controls, enhancing export-origin monitoring, and expanding access to alternative markets.

U.S. Tariff Negotiation Landscape: Vietnam in Strong Position

According to Vietnam's Trade Counselor in the U.S., Do Ngoc Hung, Vietnam shares the negotiation table with India, the UK, Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia. Among these, India, Japan, and South Korea have reportedly made progress, but President Trump remains cautious, indicating he may impose separate terms if outcomes fall short of U.S. expectations.

Despite acknowledging these developments, Trump emphasized that the current tariff framework benefits the U.S., placing it in a strong bargaining position. This underscores Vietnam’s need to move swiftly and strategically during the upcoming negotiation sessions.

Strategic Economic Measures and Growth Goals

Despite external challenges, Vietnam remains committed to its 2025 targets: over 8% GDP growth, an economic scale of over $500 billion, and per capita income exceeding $5,000.

To achieve this, the government has outlined an aggressive fiscal and monetary policy plan. It aims to increase state budget revenue by over 15%, and is prepared to raise the budget deficit to 4–4.5% of GDP if needed, to create space for development investments. Operating expenditures will be minimized to prioritize disbursement for national infrastructure and public investment projects.

Additionally, restructuring the banking system and resolving bad debts remain central to financial reform. Banks under special supervision will receive targeted solutions to restore normal operations.

Crackdown on Trade Violations and Regulatory Overhaul

The government has emphasized tough enforcement against smuggling, counterfeit goods, and deceptive advertising, especially for pharmaceuticals and nutritional supplements. Prime Minister Chinh called for the elimination of unnecessary investment conditions and committed to cutting administrative processing times by at least 30%.

In a broader strategic shift, the government is pushing for a new resolution from the Politburo and National Assembly to position private enterprise as a central driver of the economy. Local firms are being encouraged to participate more deeply in global supply and production chains.

With Vietnam now in the priority group for U.S. trade negotiations, the outcome of the talks could play a decisive role in mitigating tariff risks, stabilizing exports, and preserving growth momentum. The coordinated domestic reforms and proactive diplomacy signal that Vietnam is not only ready for negotiation but also positioning itself to turn challenges into opportunity.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Stocks

Economic

How Wall Street's rally extends as strong jobs data fuels market optimism

US stock markets locked in a second week of gains as robust economic data and potential easing of US-China trade tensions boosted investor confidence, with all eyes now on the upcoming Fed decision.

US markets extend winning streak

US stock markets rallied on Friday, locking in a second consecutive week of gains, fuelled by strong economic data and the potential easing of trade tensions between the US and China.

For the week, the US Tech 100 surged by 3.45%, while the Wall Street gained 1,207 points or 3%. The US 500 increased by 2.11% for the week, achieving its longest winning streak—nine consecutive days—since 2004.

Jobs report exceeds expectations

Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report was robust as headline nonfarm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April, compared to the 135,000 expected. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% and would have dropped to 4.0% if not for the rise in the participation rate to 62.6% from 62.5%.

The resilient labour market data alleviates worries about an economic slowdown for now and bolsters confidence in the Federal Reserve's ability to remain patient with policy adjustments. It remains to be seen if there will be meaningful deterioration in the hard data, or if the recent de-escalation and the potential of "framework deals" prevent the hard data from following the soft data lower.

Key events in focus this week

Attention this week will focus on potential tariff negotiations between the US and China, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, previewed below. Investors will also closely watch Q1 earnings reports from companies including Ford, AMD, Walt Disney and Uber. Finally, the ISM Services PMI is expected to fall to 50.2 from 50.8 to narrowly remain in expansion territory.

FOMC interest rate decision

Thursday, 8 May at 4.00am AEST

At the last FOMC meeting in mid-March, the Fed kept the Fed Funds rate on hold at 4.25%–4.50%, citing solid economic growth, low unemployment, and slightly elevated inflation.

The Fed's projections (Dots) showed that members still expected to deliver two 25 basis point (bp) rate cuts in 2025. The Fed's updated forecasts, as expected, showed an increase in inflation and unemployment forecasts while lowering its GDP forecasts, reflecting the overall impact of increased tariffs.

The significant reciprocal tariffs announced on "Liberation Day" have raised fears of higher inflation and a slowdown in the labour market, testing both elements of the Fed's dual mandate.

As such, the Fed is expected to keep the Fed's Funds rate unchanged this week at 4.25%-4.50%. It is expected to emphasise ongoing economic uncertainty, particularly due to potential tariff effects and the need to remain patient as it waits for more data. No Summary of Economic Projections or "dot plot" update is due for this meeting.

Following Friday's firm Non-Farm Payrolls report, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June eased to about 35% from around 55%. The July meeting is fully priced for a 25bp rate cut with a cumulative 78 basis points of Fed rate cuts priced by year-end.

Fed funds rate chart

US Tech 100 technical analysis

The rally from the 16,542 low of April 7 to Friday night's 20,176 high has at this stage unfolded in three waves (ABC). This follows a three-wave decline from the 22,222 record high to the 16,542 low, which leaves the picture somewhat messy when viewed through an Elliott Wave (EW) lens.

With the jury out from an EW perspective, we will continue to lean against the 200-day moving average at 21,777, which the US Tech 100 tested on Friday night. Specifically, while the US Tech 100 remains below the 200-day moving average, currently at 21,177, medium-term downside risks remain, including a retest of the April 16,542 low. If the US Tech 100 sees a sustained break above the 200-day MA, it would indicate that the decline from the 22,222 record high to the 16,542 low is complete and that the uptrend has resumed.

US Tech 100 daily chart

US 500 technical analysis

The rally from the 4835 low of April 7 to Friday night's 5700 high has at this stage unfolded in three waves (ABC). This follows a three-wave decline from the 6147 record high to the 4835 low, which leaves the picture somewhat messy when viewed through an Elliott Wave lens.

With the jury out from an EW perspective, we will continue to lean against the 200-day moving average at 5746, which the US 500 fell narrowly short of on Friday night.

Specifically, while the US 500 remains below the 200-day moving average, currently at 5746, medium-term downside risks remain, including a retest of the April 4835 low. If the US 500 sees a sustained break above the 200-day MA, it would indicate that the decline from the 6147 record high to the 4835 low is complete and that the uptrend has resumed.

US 500 daily chart

Source : ig

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Michelle

Economic

Stocks

Investors in Hollywood's top studios and streaming services were spooked Monday after President Donald Trump proposed implementing a 100% tariff on movies made overseas.

Shares of Netflix, Disney, Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery fell ahead of the opening bell, with Comcast-owned Universal also trading slightly down. Here's how those share moves shook out:

Netflix down more than 5%
Disney down more than 3%
WBD down more than 3%
Paramount down more than 2%
Comcast down less than 1%

Trump called tax incentives offered by foreign countries "a national security threat" in a post on Truth Social Sunday night. He said he was authorizing the Department of Commerce to impose a levy on all films produced abroad that are sent to the United States.

How Trump intends to implement these duties is unclear, as is exactly who is being targeted and who would foot that potential tariff bill.

Hollywood studios have long filmed movies overseas, either for tax benefits or to capture the natural setting of international locations. Some films are shot in multiple countries, with many studios having satellite production hubs around the globe.

When Trump first instituted a 25% tariff on imports from Canada, a popular filming location for Hollywood movies and television shows, industry experts told CNBC that it wouldn't have a major impact on production. After all, the majority of projects are shot digitally, and transporting the final product can be done online or with a data storage device. There isn't a physical good that exchanges hands in the same way as, say, toys or clothing that's made in another country.

Questions are already swirling. What part of the production process would be hit with this duty? Would it apply only to movie projects or will TV shows filmed internationally also incur this levy? Are already completed projects exempt?

Additionally, as with the first round of tariff announcements earlier this year, industry experts worry about how these duties will impact relationships with other countries. Hollywood relies on international box office sales to recoup lofty film budgets. China has already closed its doors to Hollywood product. Other regions could retaliate and do the same.

Source: CNBC

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Glendon

Economic

Forex

U.S. President Donald Trump walks with his nominee for the chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell on their way to a 2017 press event at the White House. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images) · Drew Angerer via Getty Images

President Trump appeared to put to rest any lingering concerns that he might fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, ruling that possibility out in an interview that aired Sunday.

"Why would I do that?" he said in the conversation on NBC’s Meet the Press with Kristen Welker. "I get to replace the person in another short period of time."

Powell’s term as chair is up in May 2026, and Powell has already made it clear he intends to serve in his post until that end point.

But the president also made it clear that he doesn’t intend to stop calling for the Fed to lower rates. The central bank is not expected to take any action at its meeting Tuesday and Wednesday as it waits for greater clarity about how Trump’s tariffs will affect inflation and the US economy.

Trump told NBC Powell doesn’t want to lower rates "because he’s not a fan of mine. You know, he just doesn’t like me because I think he’s a total stiff."

Trump started the speculation about a possible Powell firing when he said last month on social media that "Powell's termination cannot come fast enough." Less than a week later he told reporters that he had “no intention” of firing Powell.

It apparently was a step that was considered. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told reporters last month that Trump and his team were, in fact, studying whether the Fed chair could be removed.

Trump's attacks on Powell ramped up after Powell said in a speech earlier this month that the president's aggressive slate of tariffs would lead to higher inflation and lower growth and that the Fed would likely hold rates steady for now.

Seemingly acknowledging that slower economic growth could be on the horizon, Trump in an April 21 social media post called for "pre-emptive rate cuts" and referred to Powell as a "major loser."

"There can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW."

Many other Fed officials beyond Powell have also urged patience and caution before making any rate moves, given the many uncertainties ahead.

'If you don't like to be criticized, don't take the job'

The race to succeed Powell as Federal Reserve chair is starting to play out in the open.

Two men considered by Fed watchers as possible candidates to eventually assume Powell's seat have offered some pointed public views about the central bank, its mission, and its independence in the days and weeks after Trump ramped up his criticisms in mid-April.

The most critical comments came from former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, considered by many to be a frontrunner for the job when Powell's term is up in May 2026.

Source: Yahoo Finance

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Commodity

Spot Purchases Resume on Low Prices

In recent weeks, at least two spot cargoes of LNG were acquired by Chinese firms at roughly $10 per million British thermal units. This represents a direct response to a sharp decline in global spot prices—now at their lowest in about a year—and signals a tactical pivot after earlier contract deferrals and cargo resales. The willingness to re-engage at these levels demonstrates how price signals are driving procurement decisions in real time, rather than merely correlating with seasonal demand patterns.

Despite ranking as the world’s largest LNG importer in 2024, China saw a 24 percent reduction in cargo deliveries during January–April 2025 compared with the same period last year. The downturn was influenced by a combination of weakened industrial output at home and global trade tensions, a relationship that has had a correlational impact on overall import volumes. With the recent uptick in spot buying, Chinese companies are seeking to replenish inventories at attractive rates while hedging against potential supply constraints later in the year.

Regional Price Dynamics and Broader Demand Trends

LNG reference prices across Asia and Europe have trended downward amid concerns that escalating trade disputes could trigger an economic slowdown. While these declines coincided with reduced procurement, the current price trough has created a causal incentive for buyers in price-sensitive markets to step back into the spot market. As Asian and European benchmarks continue to fall, they exert downward pressure on global LNG valuations, yet also open opportunities for opportunistic purchases that might offset prior under-offtake.

Fereidun Fesharaki, Honorary Chairman of FGE, observed on Bloomberg Television that today’s spot prices, though depressed, could climb by 50–60 percent by year-end. This projection suggests a potential re-tightening of the LNG market as summer cooling demand surfaces and maintenance outages constrain supply. Buyers’ recent activity can therefore be viewed as a precautionary measure, establishing inventory cushions in anticipation of a price rebound rather than simply following a broader market correlation.

Indian Buyers Also Return to the Market

Price-driven procurement is not limited to China. Indian importers such as Indian Oil Corp. have booked spot shipments for June delivery, and Gail India is soliciting offers through a tender closing this week. These actions underscore the highly elastic nature of LNG demand in emerging markets, where low spot rates directly trigger buying activity. As both Chinese and Indian firms ramp up purchases, their combined demand may help arrest the recent slide in Asian and European spot prices.

The renewed engagement of two of the world’s most price-sensitive markets marks a turning point in global LNG trade dynamics. If spot rates remain below $12 per mmBtu, further cargo tenders and opportunistic buys are likely to follow. Such activity will not only stabilize prices but may also shift contract negotiations for the next winter season. In sum, the recent purchases reflect a deliberate strategy to capitalize on current price levels—a causal decision rooted in market fundamentals—rather than passive responses to seasonal or geopolitical correlations.

Source: The Business Times

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Stocks

European bourses had a mixed start to the week on Monday, with U.K. markets closed for a bank holiday, as investors looked ahead to the latest economic data and corporate earnings reports due this week.

Germany’s DAX was last up 0.79%, while Italy’s FTSE MIB was trading 0.15% higher and the French CAC 40 fell 0.55%.

Santander on Monday announced that Austria’s Erste Group Bank had acquired an around 49% stake in Poland-based Santander Bank Polska and 50% of Polish asset manager Santander TFI. Shares in Erste Group were last around 7.7% higher.

Amsterdam-traded shares in Shell meanwhile were last around 1.5% lower after Bloomberg reported the energy giant was evaluating a potential acquisition of its rival BP.

“As we have said many times before we are sharply focused on capturing the value in Shell through continuing to focus on performance, discipline and simplification,” a spokesperson for Shell said in response to CNBC’s request for comment.

French satellite company Eutelsat meanwhile soared, jumping as much as 17%, after announcing the appointment of Jean-François Fallacher, a former executive at telecommunications operator Orange, as its new CEO effective June 1.

Data released Monday showed that Swiss inflation fell to 0% in April compared to the same month a year earlier, coming in lower than expected. Turkish inflation meanwhile rose 3% in the month of April, taking the annual rate to 37.86%.

While it will be a quiet start to the week on the earnings front, several major companies are due to report in the coming days including Novo Nordisk, BMW, Maersk and Commerzbank.

Central Banks across Europe will also be in focus this week, with Sweden’s Riskbank, Norway’s Norges Bank and the Bank of England among those announcing their latest interest rate decisions.

Many Asian markets were also closed for a holiday Monday. Australian stocks fell after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese claimed victory as the country’s first prime minister to secure a second consecutive term in 21 years.

U.S. stock futures were last lower after a winning week that saw the S&P 500 record its longest positive streak in two decades. Trade tensions and prospective deals with the U.S.′ key partners continued to be top of mind for investors, as was the upcoming interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve. The central bank is widely expected to keep rates steady.