Nvidia to report Q1 earnings as Middle East deals, export control reprieve boost stock

Stocks

Economic

Summary:

Nvidia prepares to report Q1 earnings amid fluctuating stock, export restrictions, and new Middle East deals. Analysts expect strong revenue growth, despite a $5.5B write-down linked to China chip bans.

Nvidia (NVDA) will report its fiscal first quarter results after the bell on Wednesday in the most-anticipated earnings announcement of the season.

Nvidia’s stock has fluctuated wildly since the start of the year as the company has dealt with setbacks ranging from the Trump administration’s ban on shipments of its H20 chips bound for China to concerns related to expected semiconductor tariffs.

But a last-minute reprieve from Washington’s planned AI diffusion rule, which was put in place by the Biden administration to limit GPU sales to certain countries, and major investment announcements during Trump’s visit to the Middle East have pushed Nvidia’s share price to just about flat year to date and up roughly 40% over the last 12 months as of Thursday.

Nvidia’s report follows the company’s showing at the annual Computex Taipei tradeshow in Taiwan, where it showcased new technologies, such as its new cloud offering, which gives customers access to cloud-based versions of Nvidia’s GPUs via third-party providers, including CoreWeave (CRWV) and Foxconn (2354.TW).

For the quarter, Nvidia is expected to report adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.88 on revenue of $43.3 billion, according to Bloomberg analyst consensus data. The company reported adjusted EPS of $0.61 on revenue of $26 billion in the same period last year.

Wall Street anticipates Nvidia’s Data Center revenue to top out at $39.2 billion, up from $22.5 billion, which works out to a 74% year over year increase. Gaming revenue, the company’s second-largest segment, is set to hit $2.8 billion, up from $2.6 billion.

Analysts anticipate Nvidia’s China revenue to come in at $6.2 billion, up 150% from the $2.4 billion it sold in the region in Q1 last year. The US is expected to account for $21.6 billion of the company’s sales.

Nvidia, however, says it will have to write down $5.5 billion in charges related to the Trump administration’s ban on sales of its H20 chip. The company announced the news in an April regulatory filing.

Nvidia specifically designed the H20 to meet the Biden administration’s restrictions on AI chips destined for China. But DeepSeek sent shockwaves through Washington, and Wall Street, when it proved it could produce powerful AI models using below top-of-the-line Nvidia chips. As a result, Trump imposed tighter restrictions on the company’s chips, banning the sale of H20s in the country.

According to Reuters, Nvidia is now working on a modified version of the H20 that meets the Trump administration’s performance requirements.

Source: finance.yahoo

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Michelle

China–U.S. Trade War

Economists see slightly slower US inflation this year after the US and China reached a temporary trade agreement, which also helped reduce odds of a recession in the near term.

Forecasters in the May Bloomberg survey expect the personal consumption expenditures price index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric — to peak at 3.1% at the end of 2025, a slight step-down from the 3.2% increase projected in April. They also marked down estimates for the consumer price index through early next year.

The median respondent now sees a 40% chance of a downturn in the next 12 months — down from a 45% estimate last month, but still much higher than the 30% expected in March. But forecasters also slightly trimmed their estimates for gross domestic product, and see a tepid 1.3% increase in 2025.

The Trump administration agreed to substantially lower tariffs on Chinese goods this month as officials work toward a possible trade deal between the world’s two largest economies. However, tariff rates are still notably higher now compared to before President Donald Trump took office, and lackluster consumer sentiment has corporate America worried about the outlook.

“Higher tariffs are set to weigh on growth and raise inflation, but are less likely to trigger a recession than feared last month,” said Comerica Bank economists Bill Adams and Waran Bhahirethan. “Tariffs do seem to have shifted economic growth into a lower gear, though.”

Helping the GDP print will be a bigger drop in imports — particularly in the current quarter, according to the survey. At the start of the year, imports surged by the most in almost five years as businesses scrambled to get goods in the US ahead of tariffs, which led to the first negative GDP reading since 2022.

Economists still largely expect household demand to hold up in the face of heightened uncertainty. They forecast consumer spending to rise 1.5% in the second quarter, up from a 1% estimate in April. Still, that’s seen slowing down later in the year.

The outlook for business spending is less optimistic. Economists see private investment falling 5.2% in the current quarter, worse than the 3% decline projected in April. They also revised those estimates down through the middle of next year.

“The US-China and US-UK trade agreements are steps in the right direction but uncertainties remain,” said Olu Omodunbi, chief economist at Huntington Private Bank. “We expect slower growth in consumer spending and investment this year, compared to 2024.”

The survey was conducted May 16-21 and included responses from 86 economists.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Commodity

Gold prices are posting good gains in early U.S. trading Friday, on continued safe-haven flows ahead of a three-day U.S. holiday weekend. Silver prices are just slightly up. June gold was last up $45.90 at $3,340.90. July silver prices were last up $0.051 at $33.27.

The U.S. stock market has become wobbly again Friday morning following a couple of social media posts by President Trump. That’s benefitting safe-haven gold. One post said Apple IPhones will have a 25% tariff if they are not made in the U.S. The other post said U.S.-European Union trade talks are going nowhere and the U.S. is set to levy 50% tariffs on the EU beginning June 1.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to solidly lower openings today in New York, after trading near steady overnight.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady and trading around $61.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently at 4.519%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes new residential sales.

Gold price solidly up on safe-haven buying ahead of long U.S. weekend_1

Technically, June gold futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,400.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the May low of $3,123.30. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $3,346.80 and then at $3,375.00. First support is seen at $3,300.00 and then at the overnight low of $3,285.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

Gold price solidly up on safe-haven buying ahead of long U.S. weekend_2

July silver futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $34.015. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the May low of $31.78. First resistance is seen at $33.50 and then at $34.015. Next support is seen at $33.00 and then at Thursday’s low of $32.74. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

Source :kitco

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Glendon

Economic

Forex

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said lower borrowing costs are still possible over the next 10 to 16 months, even as the bar for rate cuts in the near term is “a little higher.”

“Everything is always on the table, but I feel like the bar for me is a little higher for action in any direction while we’re waiting to get some clarity,” Goolsbee said Friday in an interview with CNBC.

Goolsbee said he’s still hopeful that “10 to 16 months from now rates could be a fair bit below where they are today.”

His comments came after President Donald Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on imported goods from the European Union, and warned of a 25% levy on Apple phones as long as they are not manufactured in the US. Such high tariffs “would be really scary for the supply chain,” Goolsbee said.

“If every week or every month or every day there’s going to be a new major announcement, they just can’t take action until some of those things are resolved,” he said, referring to companies trying to make decisions. Business leaders across his district have expressed anxiety about tariffs and the need for consistency to make investments, he added.

Fed officials this week have signaled their wait-and-see approach to potential rate adjustments could extend for additional months as they look for clarity on tariffs and their impact on the US economy.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Forex

Economic

The euro fell on Friday, reversing earlier gains after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would recommend hitting the European Union with 50% tariffs from June 1, reigniting investor fears over the impact of duties on the world economy and trade.

In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump said the EU was "very difficult to deal with" and "our negotiations with them are going nowhere."

"Therefore, I am recommending a straight 50% Tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025. There is no Tariff if the product is built or manufactured in the United States."

The euro had risen by almost 0.8% on the day earlier, after Trump in a separate post threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Apple (AAPL.O) , opens new tab on all iPhones not made in the United States. It was last up 0.45% at $1.1336.

The dollar pared some losses against the Japanese yen and the pound after Trump's post on EU tariffs, but was still heading for its first weekly drop against a basket of currencies in five weeks.

After Moody's last week downgraded its U.S. debt ratings, investor attention this week has honed in on the country's $36 trillion debt pile and Trump's tax bill, which could add trillions of dollars more to it.

Dubbed by Trump as a "big, beautiful bill", it narrowly passed the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives and now heads to the Senate for what is likely to be weeks of debate, keeping investor sentiment fragile in the near term.

After the U.S. and China agreed earlier this month to suspend their reciprocal tariffs, investor focus has returned to vulnerabilities in U.S. government finances.

Trump's posts on Friday brought tariffs and trade roaring back to the fore.

"The focus had very much been on the U.S. fiscal position following the passage of Trump's 'big beautiful bill'. But this has swung attention firmly back to trade tariffs. It's more bad news for the U.S. dollar, bringing 2025 lows into focus. I think it does nothing to help avert the 'sell America'," City Index strategist Fiona Cincotta said.

The yen , which has served as a safe haven for investors seeking alternatives to the dollar, strengthened, leaving the dollar down nearly 1% at 142.52.

The Japanese currency got a boost earlier from data showing Japan's core inflation accelerated at its fastest annual pace in more than two years in April, raising the odds of another interest rate hike by year-end.

The data underscores the quandary facing the Bank of Japan, which must grapple with price pressures from persistent food inflation as well as economic headwinds from Trump's tariffs.

Super-long Japanese government bonds have also scaled record highs this week, although they were steady on Friday.

The Swiss franc also rallied, pushing the dollar down 0.7% to 0.8225 francs.

source : reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

Donald Trump has said he will impose a 50% tariff on all EU imports to the US from 1 June after saying trade talks between the two trading blocs were “going nowhere”.

In a surprise announcement, the US president posted on his Truth Social platform that his long-running battle to secure concessions from the EU had run aground.

He accused the EU of taking advantage of the US on trade, saying: “Our discussions with them are going nowhere! Therefore I am recommending a straight 50% Tariff on the European Union, starting on 1 June 2025.”

Stock markets slumped in response to the post, with S&P 500 futures down by 1.5% before the New York market opening. The STOXX Europe 600 index fell by 1.7%.

The US imposed a 20% “reciprocal” rate on most EU goods on 2 April, but halved that rate a week later until 8 July to allow time for talks. It has retained 25% import taxes on steel, aluminium and vehicle parts and is threatening similar action on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and other goods.

“This is a major escalation of trade tensions,” said Holger Schmieding, the chief economist at Berenberg, on Friday. “With Trump you never know but this would be a major escalation. The EU would have to react and it is something that would really hurt the US and European economy.”

EU negotiators have been locked in meetings with White House representatives since Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs were first announced. Dozens of nations have been holding discussions to try to bring down their own levies before the 90-day pause elapses.

The White House has relented on many of its most onerous tariffs, including lowering total tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% after what Trump declared were constructive talks with Beijing, which lowered its retaliatory border taxes from 125% to 10% in response.

A week ago the US president appeared to acknowledge that Washington lacked the ability to negotiate deals with scores of countries at once, saying the US would instead send letters to some trading partners to unilaterally impose new tariff rates.

Perceptions of an easing back on a hardline approach to trade brought a period of calm to stock markets, but Friday’s threat of a 50% levy on EU goods, plus a separate threat made the same day of 25% tariffs on iPhones made abroad, have brought an end to the peace.

The EU presented a fresh trade proposal to the US on Thursday. The offer included phased tariff cuts on non-sensitive goods, plus cooperation on energy, AI and digital infrastructure. The bloc was readying about $108bn in retaliatory tariffs if talks fail.

To sweeten the deal, EU officials were also willing to extend a 2020 tariff-free arrangement on US lobster imports, according to the Financial Times. But it appears to have proved insufficient to persuade the US president to sign a deal allowing only his 10% universal tariff to apply to the EU, as it does the UK.

Source: Theguardian

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Commodity

Crude Oil Prices Stall as OPEC+ Supply Expectations Weigh on Market

Daily Light Crude Oil Futures

Light crude oil futures are holding near-flat levels Friday, as traders attempt to halt a three-day slide that has erased recent gains. After rejecting key technical resistance at $62.59 and its 50-day moving average at $62.80, the market appears poised to test the short-term pivot at $59.51—a level that could determine the next directional move.

Can the $59.51 Pivot Hold in the Face of Bearish Pressure?

A bounce from $59.51 could form a secondary higher bottom, giving bulls a potential setup to retest the 50-day average. However, if this support fails, technical selling could intensify, targeting a deeper support zone between $54.83 and $54.01. The price action suggests traders are hesitating as they weigh technical signals against bearish fundamental drivers.

OPEC+ Output Hike Looms Large Over Oil Prices Forecast

This week’s losses, with both Brent and WTI down roughly 2%, are largely tied to growing expectations that OPEC+ will raise output again in July. Market participants anticipate an increase of 411,000 barrels per day, continuing the group’s gradual unwind of 2.2 million bpd in voluntary production cuts. These increases have already added 1 million bpd in combined capacity between April and June.

Analysts note that even geopolitical risks, including reports of Israeli planning for a potential strike on Iranian nuclear sites and fresh EU and UK sanctions on Russian oil flows, have failed to counter the supply-driven sentiment. SEB’s Bjarne Schieldrop said, “Brent is down in response to expectations of OPEC+ expanding its production quota.”

U.S. Crude Stockpiles and Storage Demand Compound Bearish Outlook

Adding to downside pressure, U.S. crude inventories showed a significant build this week, suggesting demand is lagging behind supply growth. The surge in U.S. crude storage demand—now approaching pandemic-era levels—highlights market concerns about oversupply in the near term.

Further supply-side insights are expected from Friday’s Baker Hughes rig count, a key indicator of U.S. production capacity. Traders are also watching developments in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, as a breakthrough could unleash more Iranian barrels into the global market.

Bearish Outlook Firm as Supply Narrative Dominates

With technical resistance intact and multiple fundamental drivers pointing to rising global supply, the oil market remains tilted to the downside. Unless the $59.51 support level holds and catalyzes a shift in sentiment, the path of least resistance appears bearish in the near term.