Michael Saylor Says If Bitcoin 'Not Going to Zero, It's Going to a Million' — Believes Global Inflation Will Be Driver of BTC Adoption

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy's Co-founder, expresses confidence in Bitcoin's stability amid uncertainty, endorsing it as a secure strategy for institutions. He welcomes new FASB rules for crypto accounting. Saylor remains bullish on Bitcoin, stating, "If Bitcoin’s not going to zero, it’s going to a million." He sees positive market impacts from a Bitcoin spot ETF, tied to monetary policy, global inflation, and the upcoming halving. MicroStrategy owns 174,530 Bitcoins at $5.28 billion. Bitcoin trades at $42,926, up 4.60% in the last 24 hours. Saylor's remarks highlight Bitcoin's enduring appeal and growth potential.

Michael Saylor, the co-founder and Executive Chairman of business intelligence company MicroStrategy Inc, on Monday said "there’s a lot of uncertainty around the rest of the crypto ecosystem, but the one thing we can count on is Bitcoin BTC/USD+5.19% going forward in the year 2024."

What Happened: During an interview with CNBC on Monday, Saylor said, "a strategy built around Bitcoin is generally a pretty safe one for institutions.”

Michael Saylor Says If Bitcoin 'Not Going to Zero, It's Going to a Million' — Believes Global Inflation Will Be Driver of BTC Adoption_1

MicroStrategy CEO also discussed the new rules announced by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) that require companies to account for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin at fair value.He welcomes this, as he believes it will bring more transparency and clarity to companies holding Bitcoin, and sees it as an opportunity for publicly traded companies to invest in Bitcoin as a legitimate Treasury reserve asset.

“Bitcoin represents a digital transformation of capital, 99.9% of the capital in the world is tied up in real estate and stocks and precious metals and bonds. And so we’re point 1% transformed. People, as they get educated on digital assets, are realizing that they ought to be allocating more and more of their capital to this digital asset,” he said.

Why It Matters: When asked about the recent rally in Bitcoin prices, up 56% since early October, Saylor said “If Bitcoin’s not going to zero, it’s going to a million."

On the impact of the upcoming Bitcoin spot ETF news on the rally, Saylor added, “This ETF news is good news. Loosening monetary policy is good news. Inflation anywhere in the world drives Bitcoin adoption. And of course, the halving is going to cut the available supply of Bitcoins for sale in half from the miners. And so we’ve got a confluence of very bullish milestones over the next six months, and I think smart money is investing into that ahead of it.”

MicroStrategy began its Bitcoin investment journey in August 2020. As of November 30, MicroStrategy owned 174,530 Bitcoins, acquired for approximately $5.28 billion at an average cost of $30,252 per Bitcoin.

Price Action: At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $42,926 up 4.60% in the last 24 hours, according to Benzinga Pro.

Source: Benzinga

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Comments

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Forex

Economic

Recent events have overtaken Goldman Sachs's base-case assumptions for 2024, and economists at the Wall Street bank have announced adjustments to their dollar forecasts before the new year begins.

Following recent downside surprises in U.S. inflation readings and last week’s Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting, economists at Goldman Sachs have made a "significant" change to their Fed call.

They now expect five interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve next year, compared to just one made in the initial 2024 Outlook publication.

This has resulted in a widespread downgrade to Goldman Sachs's USD forecasts for the year ahead. "Our new forecasts incorporate more Dollar weakness than before," says Kamakshya Trivedi, an analyst at Goldman Sachs.

At the December FOMC, policymakers added a further 25 basis points of rate cuts to their assumptions for 2024, and Chair Jerome Powell said in the press conference that the Committee discussed the timing of interest rate cuts, seeing a need "to reduce restriction well before 2% inflation".

With the Fed now expected to cut rates on five occasions in 2024, the Dollar can weaken, but Goldman Sachs says it will not be a rout.

"While the Fed appears to be turning towards rate cuts as a policy preference, cuts priced and being delivered in some other jurisdictions—especially the Euro area and China—look like much more of a policy necessity. In other words, we think the Fed has already shown its dovish hand, but the ECB for example could (and probably will) shift further than it did," says Trivedi.

Both the European Central Bank and Bank of England said last week they were in no mood to consider interest rate cuts at this point. But Goldman Sachs says these, and other, central banks will ultimately embrace rate cuts, limiting USD weakness.

Currencies with more upside from current levels are pro-cyclical currencies that should benefit from the Fed loosening its grip on financial conditions.

These include KRW, ZAR, AUD, NZD and GBP.

"We expect relatively contained returns from current levels in the key challengers that still face a number of idiosyncratic domestic hurdles (EUR, CNY and JPY)," says Trivedi.

"Effectively, evolving expectations for the Fed make it a little more comfortable for the cyclical parts of FX to be 'living in a Dollar world,' but we are still 'waiting for a challenger' to be able to take the lead and fully erode the Dollar’s strength," he adds.

Goldman Sachs now forecast the Pound to Dollar exchange rate at 1.28 in three months, an upgrade from the previous forecast of 1.25. In six months, the pair is seen at 1.30, unchanged from the previous forecast and in 12 months, the target is raised to 1.35 from 1.30.

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate is forecasted at 1.08 in three months (1.04 previously), 1.10 in six (1.06), and 1.12 in twelve months (1.10).

The Dollar to Yen exchange rate is forecasted at 145 (155), 142 (155), and 140 (150) at the aforementioned time points.

For the Australian Dollar to U.S. Dollar conversion, the profile is 0.68 (0.62), 0.70 (0.64) and 0.72 (0.66) for 3,6 and twelve months ahead. For the New Zealand Dollar to U.S. Dollar forecast, the points are 0.63 (0.57), 0.65 (0.59) and 0.67 (0.61).

Source: PoundSterlingLive

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Comments

Add to Favorites

Chandan Gupta

Forex

At the end of its last monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Japan decided to leave negative interest rates and future outlook unchanged.There was speculation that the bank might start talking about changing its policy, but that did not materialize.The market reacted by selling Japanese yen.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has released the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting, which contained no surprises and had little impact on the Australian dollar.Member countries saw positive signs of progress in inflation and were determined to keep interest rates unchanged. Asian stock markets remain mixed, but major U.S.

Indexes continue to rise after closing Friday at their highest weekly levels in two years. The price of the Nasdaq 100 index is very close to its all-time high, and the benchmark S&P 500 index is very close to a new two-year high.

Crude oil continues to soar after hitting a two-week high and trading at six-month lows due to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, forcing major shipping companies to refuse shipments &Transport of goods through the Red Sea. The United States has said it is organizing a military operation to fully reopen the Red Sea to navigation, potentially mitigating the surge.

In the foreign exchange market in Tokyo, the NZD/JPY currency pair is in the spotlight, with the New Zealand dollar being the strongest major currency and the Japanese Yen being the weakest.At the moment, there doesn't seem to be a valid long-term trend that this asset class can capitalize on. However, as the USD has weakened again over the past week, attention will be on the long side of EUR/USD if it reaches a daily close above the key resistance level at $1.1008.

Bitcoin appears to have support at the $40,907 level, but any upside from this level seems weak.

Cocoa futures closed higher yesterday and remains within a valid and very strong long-term uptrend.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Comments

Add to Favorites

Forex

GBP/USD climbed to a new four-month high in the previous week, but it reversed lower again, falling beneath the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 1.3140 to 1.2035 at 1.2720.

The next major support level for traders to have in mind is the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2615, with the technical oscillators confirming another bearish wave. The MACD oscillator is falling beneath its trigger line in the positive territory, while the RSI is flattening above the 50 level.

If price action remains above the 50.0% Fibonacci of 1.2590, there is scope to test the 61.8% Fibonacci of 1.2720. Clearing this key level would see additional gains towards the four-month peak of 1.2795. This is considered to be a strong resistance area which has been rejected a few times in the past. Rising above it could see prices re-test the 1.3000 round number, taken from the peak on July 27.

If 1.2590 support fails, then the focus would shift to the downside towards 1.2495, which overlaps with the 200-day SMA. If breached, that would increase downside pressure, and perhaps bring about a reversal until the 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.2460 and the 50-day SMA at 1.2400. From here, GBP/USD would be on the path towards the 23.6% Fibonacci of 1.2300 ahead of the short-term ascending trend line at 1.2200.

Overall, GBP/USD has been bullish since bottoming at 1.2035. However, near-term weakness is expected to remain as long as technical oscillators are still losing some steam.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Comments

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

The British Pound will fall to levels last seen against the Euro during the crisis sparked by former Prime Minister Liz Truss when she introduced her controversial budget in September 2022.

This is according to analysis from Deutsche Bank, where a slowing UK economy is expected to prompt the Bank of England into a May interest rate cut, resulting in a decline in Pound Sterling's value.

Deutsche Bank analyst George Saravelos explains, "the timing and speed of the adjustment from hiking to cutting for individual central banks will be a dominant influence for each currency in 2024."

On this count, the Pound will be penalised by the Bank of England, which Deutsche Bank expects to cut Bank Rate in May, ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, both of which are seen cutting in mid-year.

"Past monetary policy tightening is clearly starting to feed through the economy," says Saravelos. "House prices have started their correction, but likely have further to fall. This sharp slowing in housing activity is also yet to feed through to the labour market, which in any case is finally showing signs of cooling fairly quickly."

Deutsche Bank's base case is that the Bank of England will start cutting rates in May next year. It looks for both the Federal Reserve and ECB easing cycles to start mid-year.

Truss Crisis Levels Await Pound to Euro Rate in 2024, Says Deutsche Bank_1

Above: It is back to levels associated with recent crises for Pound-Euro says Deutsche Bank. (Purple lines show forecast levels at mid-year and year-end).

In addition, analysts say the UK’s external accounts remain in a poor place, with the broad basic balance turning negative again.

"For EURGBP meanwhile, we think a move north of 0.90 (which we assess to be fair value across DBeer and PPP models) is likely, and fair value in the cross will continue to drift higher as long as UK inflation remains stickier," says Saravelos.

The Euro to Pound exchange rate is forecast to rise to 0.90 by mid-year 2024, ahead of 0.92 by year-end.

This gives a Pound to Euro exchange rate of 1.11 and 1.0870.

The exchange rate was last this low when former Prime Minister Liz Truss announced an unfunded budget that caused financial markets to panic.

In fact, forays below 1.10 have only ever been associated with crises, including the coronavirus outbreak of 2020, post-2016 Brexit negotiation anxieties and the 2008 financial crisis.

So, it is crisis-era levels for a currency that is not expected to experience a crisis.

Yet, Deutsche Bank expects politics to be a benign factor over the coming months.

"We don’t see the next general election – due by January 2025 - as a major risk event for the pound. Current polls suggest the Labour party will win a majority, but for now there aren’t many large differences between the fiscal and Brexit stances across the major parties," says Saravelos.

Source : PoundSterlingLive

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Comments

Add to Favorites

ING

Forex

USD: Mixed Fedspeak

The dollar has started the week modestly offered, with Scandinavian currencies performing well and the yen dropping after this morning's Bank of Japan announcement.

The US calendar was empty yesterday, so the spotlight was on Fedspeak. Loretta Mester said that the markets are "a little bit ahead" on rate cuts, and Mary Daly said that her outlook for rate cuts is very close to the median Dot Plot (75bp of easing next year). Interestingly, Daly said that policy would still be restrictive if three cuts were delivered next year, which would probably imply greater room for easing if the economic outlook deteriorates. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he is confused by the market reaction to the Dot Plot, but remarks from Daly and Mester instead seemed to endorse investors' bullish response.

We'll keep monitoring Fed speakers today, with Thomas Barkin and Raphael Bostic (the latter swings more to the dovish side) set to deliver remarks. However, the focus will also be on US data, with housing starts set to have declined along with building permits in November. October TIC data is also due today.

Tomorrow's consumer confidence and Friday's PCE and personal income numbers will be the last bits of data that can move the market before Christmas. Today, FX markets may stay quiet, and the general mood on the dollar could be modestly bearish unless we hear some more convincing pushback on rate cuts by Fed officials.

EUR: ECB versus data

Unlike officials at the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank members have managed to deliver a more coordinated pushback on rate cuts, both at last week's policy meeting and in post-meeting communication. Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said the risks of premature cuts are bigger than those of keeping monetary tight for too long, and fellow hawk Pierre Wunsch highlighted how rate cuts cannot be discussed until wages move to a level that is compatible with the inflation target.

Despite that, it still appears quite hard to dissuade the market from its conviction that rates will start to be cut in April. Data remains the missing link for a more material repricing in ECB rate expectations, and another miss by the Ifo yesterday in Germany suggests we are not at peak pessimism yet on the eurozone economic outlook.

EUR/USD can trade above 1.10 during the holiday period as the dollar enters a seasonally soft period, but rate differentials are still too depressed to argue for a sustainable rally above 1.10 just yet.

CAD: Macklem turns dovish

The Canadian dollar is lagging other pro-cyclical currencies at the start of this week after Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said in a TV interview yesterday that he expects rates to be cut next year. This is a surprise statement by Macklem, who only two weeks ago reiterated the hawkish bias in the BoC policy statement. Offering a timeline for rate cuts appears inconsistent with the BoC's claim that it "remains prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed" and likely validates the market's pricing for 100bp of easing next year – despite Macklem's caveats on the disinflation progress.

Despite our view of a dollar decline and outperformance of pro-cyclical currencies next year, we expect the Canadian dollar to underperform other commodity currencies as the BoC cuts rates aggressively (we estimate 150bp in 2024) on a grim economic outlook and as the loonie suffers from its correlation with US economic data.

JPY: Ueda disappoints markets, but April hike on the table

The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged today as widely expected, but disappointed the market's hawkish expectations. The Bank kept its dovish guidance unchanged ("take additional monetary easing steps without hesitation if needed") which forced markets to abandon speculation of a rate hike in January.

The yen took a hit, falling almost by 1.0% against the dollar after the announcement and press conference by Governor Ueda, but we identified a few changes in the Bank's assessment of the economic outlook that likely endorse the market's lingering expectations for a hike in April. In particular, the BoJ noted that private consumption has continued to increase modestly, that inflation is likely to be above 2% throughout the 2024 fiscal year and that underlying inflation is likely to increase. Those statements are aimed at paving the way for policy normalisation in 2024, in our view. We expect the yield curve control to be scrapped in January and a hike to be delivered in April.

From an FX perspective, the yen may simply revert to trading primarily on external factors (US rates in particular) after the BoJ ignored market pressure and likely signalled the path to normalisation should be a gradual one. We remain bearish on USD/JPY in 2024, as the oversold yen can still benefit from the end of negative rates in Japan and we see the Fed cutting rates by 150bp, but the pace of depreciation in the pair will be gradual in the near term, and we only see a decisive break below 140 in 2Q24.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Comments

Add to Favorites

Chandan Gupta

The EUR/USD combine has been within the highlight within the past few days as the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Government Save conveyed their last choices of the year. As anticipated, the banks cleared out rates unchanged but conveyed distinctive tone.

Within the US, the Bolstered pointed to three rate cuts in 2024 because it pronounced triumph on swelling, which has fallen to 3.1%. The ECB, on the other hand, famous that it would keep up tall rates for a whereas.

A part has happened since at that point. A few Bolstered authorities have pushed back against against the idea that rate cuts will come as early as in Walk. John Williams and Austan Goolsbee have cautioned that expansion is still at an lifted level.

In the interim, European financial numbers appeared that the coalition was not doing well. The streak composite PMI dropped to 47 in December, lower than the middle assess of 48. It has contracted within the past seven straight months.

The following key EUR/USD news to observe will be the up and coming European expansion information. Financial analysts anticipate the information to appear that the feature CPI dropped by 0.5% in November after developing by 0.1% within the previous month.

On a YoY premise, financial specialists see the feature CPI falling from 2.9% to 2.4%. Center swelling is additionally anticipated to come in at short 0.6% (Mother) and 3.6% (YoY). These numbers mean that the country's expansion is moving within the right course, indicating to lower rate cuts.

The US will distribute the most recent building grants and lodging begins numbers. Whereas these numbers are imperative, their affect on the US dollar will be restricted.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Comments

Add to Favorites