Markets Hesitate After Record Highs Amid Tax Bill Turmoil and Trade Tensions

Economic

Stocks

Summary:

U.S. stock futures pulled back slightly on the first trading day of July 2025, as investor optimism cooled following record gains in June. Market participants are closely watching developments around President Trump’s controversial tax and spending bill...

Post-Rally Pause: Futures Dip as Caution Sets In

Following a powerful first-half rally led by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite—both closing at record highs on Monday—U.S. equity futures opened Tuesday in negative territory. The S&P 500 e-minis dipped 0.26%, Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.34%, and Dow futures fell 0.12% as of 5:51 a.m. ET. These declines reflect cautious sentiment after a robust quarter driven by artificial intelligence enthusiasm and resilient earnings.

At the heart of current market anxiety is the Senate’s ongoing voting marathon over President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill. The proposed legislation—set to increase the national debt by $3.3 trillion—has triggered investor fears about long-term fiscal sustainability. Amendments are still being debated, adding to market volatility.

Adding fuel to the fire, a public clash between Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk over the tax bill further pressured Tesla stock, which fell nearly 4.7% in premarket trading. Musk’s companies, which have benefited from government subsidies, are now under scrutiny from a Trump-backed government efficiency review. Tesla’s weakening demand in Europe—reporting its sixth consecutive month of declining sales in Sweden and Denmark—exacerbated the stock’s drop.

Trade Tensions Cloud Market Sentiment

Compounding investor worries are signs of strain in U.S. trade negotiations. Trump voiced frustration with the slow pace of talks with Japan, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that several nations may soon face significantly higher tariffs if deals aren’t struck before a July 9 deadline. These threats rekindle memories of previous disruptions caused by Trump’s erratic trade policies and could pressure multinational firms.

Markets are also eyeing key macroeconomic indicators and Federal Reserve communication. Investors await the June manufacturing surveys from S&P Global and ISM, May job openings data, and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at an ECB forum later today. These signals could influence expectations for monetary policy amid rising bets on interest rate cuts.

Despite political and fiscal noise, traders are still pricing in a dovish tilt from the Fed, partly due to weak recent data and speculation that Trump may appoint a more accommodative central bank head. LSEG data shows markets anticipating 68 basis points of rate cuts by year-end and 135 basis points by October 2026.

IPO and Crypto-Linked Stocks Stay Active

Outside the political spotlight, Circle, a major stablecoin firm, rose 2.1% after announcing plans to establish a national trust bank in the U.S.—a move that would place the company under federal oversight and potentially boost its institutional legitimacy.

While Tuesday’s dip in futures reflects investor wariness amid political and economic crosscurrents, the underlying bullish sentiment remains intact following the market’s best quarterly performance in over a year. Much now hinges on clarity over the tax bill, upcoming economic data, and the trajectory of U.S. monetary policy. If markets digest these risks constructively, the current hesitation may prove to be a brief pause in an ongoing uptrend.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

Stocks

Nasdaq Leverages Tech Momentum and SPAC Revival to Outpace NYSE

In the first half of 2025, Nasdaq extended its leadership in the IPO arena by capturing a significantly larger share of U.S. stock market listings compared to the NYSE. According to Dealogic data, Nasdaq listings—including special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs)—raised approximately $21.3 billion, more than doubling the $8.7 billion raised on the NYSE. Even when SPACs are excluded, Nasdaq still led, with $9 billion raised across 79 traditional IPOs, outpacing NYSE’s $7.8 billion from just 15 deals.

This surge was powered by blockbuster listings such as CoreWeave’s $1.5 billion IPO and Chime’s offering, as well as renewed investor appetite following a volatile spring. Notably, Nasdaq has now led IPO rankings for six consecutive years, a reflection of its consistent appeal to high-growth, tech-forward companies.

Volatility Fades, IPO Pipeline Reignites

Market turbulence earlier this year—driven by policy instability and geopolitical shocks—had momentarily stalled IPO activity. However, a strong market rebound in May reignited listing momentum. Nasdaq President Nelson Griggs confirmed that companies are now “back having those discussions,” hinting at a busy fall season if early IPOs perform well.

The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 both closed June at record highs, signaling robust investor confidence and setting a fertile stage for upcoming listings. Highly anticipated IPOs from companies like Medline and Figma are expected to hit the market later in the year, potentially increasing the competitiveness between the exchanges.

Exchange Switches Signal Broader Appeal for Nasdaq

Adding to Nasdaq’s advantage was a wave of high-profile company transfers from the NYSE. Ten firms, including Kimberly-Clark and Thomson Reuters, switched their listings to Nasdaq in 2025, representing a combined market capitalization of $271.4 billion. This is the strongest first-half performance for Nasdaq in attracting switches since 2006.

One factor drawing companies to Nasdaq is the visibility and prestige associated with inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index, which features heavyweights like Apple and Nvidia. The Nasdaq-100 has returned nearly 8% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500’s 5.5% gain, making it an attractive benchmark for growth-oriented firms.

NYSE, for its part, has retained relevance through major IPOs like Venture Global’s $1.75 billion listing—the largest of the year—and has seen several companies, including Virtu and CSW Industrials, transfer from Nasdaq. NYSE’s Global Head of Capital Markets, Michael Harris, projected continued strength in listings for the rest of 2025, emphasizing the diversity and depth of the exchange’s pipeline.

Capital Market Dynamics: U.S. Leads in Dual-Exchange Competition

The competition between Nasdaq and NYSE has played a pivotal role in reinforcing the appeal of U.S. capital markets over single-venue international rivals like Hong Kong or London. With each exchange tailoring its appeal to different industry sectors—Nasdaq for tech and innovation, NYSE for industrials and legacy brands—the dual-platform environment promotes innovation and investor engagement.

This competitive dynamic has helped the U.S. maintain its global leadership in capital formation. As companies increasingly weigh the benefits of index inclusion, sector alignment, and investor exposure, the second half of 2025 may bring further strategic listings—and possibly, a more balanced scoreboard between the exchanges.

Nasdaq’s first-half victory in 2025 highlights the continuing strength of technology companies in public markets and investor preference for growth-oriented listings. While volatility remains a risk, the rebound in IPOs and strategic exchange switches underscores the resilience of U.S. capital markets. If upcoming listings perform well and geopolitical risks remain contained, Nasdaq and NYSE could both see a vibrant second half, but Nasdaq currently holds the lead with a winning formula of innovation, index visibility, and investor trust.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

Indonesia's exports surged in May ahead of a looming decision on threatened hefty US tariffs, data showed on Tuesday, while inflation remained low in June and analysts said there was room for the central bank to cut rates again to support the economy.

Exports rose 9.68% from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said, well above the median forecast of a 0.40% rise in a Reuters poll and outpacing a 4.14% rise in imports.

That saw the trade surplus in Southeast Asia's largest economy widen to US$4.3 billion (RM18.12 billion) in May, up from a five-year low of around US$160 million in April, as exporters wait for the July 9 deadline to complete tariff negotiations with the US.

"There is an effect of anticipation of the imposition of reciprocal tariffs from Trump, so it looks like exporters were frontloading," said Bank Mandiri economist Shahifa Assajjadiyyah.

Separate data showed the inflation rate was 1.87% in June, a touch stronger than expected but comfortably within Bank Indonesia's target range of 1.5% to 3.5%.

The central bank paused its easing cycle at a policy review last month, but said there was still room to cut rates given moderate inflation and the need to support economic activity.

Maybank Indonesia economist Myrdal Gunarto said the combination of inflation within the target range, a strong trade balance and a stable rupiah meant Bank Indonesia had room to start cutting rates again.

Like many other countries, Indonesia is in talks with Washington ahead of next week's deadline to avoid the US administration's threatened "reciprocal" tariffs.

Jakarta, facing a 32% tariff, has said it will ease import restrictions and rules on many goods and raw materials in a bid to make it easier to do business in the country.

Tuesday's data showed exports of crude and refined palm oil from January to May were 8.3 million tonne. Palm oil products and steel were among the key contributors to the rise in exports in May.

Indonesia's rice output from January to August is estimated at 24.97 million tonnes, up 14.09% compared to the same period last year, the bureau said.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Economic

Commodity

China–U.S. Trade War

Global Supply Shock Rewrites Rare Earth Magnet Economics

China’s decision in April 2025 to tighten export controls on rare earth magnets—key components in electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, and electronics—has upended global supply chains. For years, non-Chinese producers struggled to compete due to China’s scale advantages, lower costs, and state support. But the new trade barriers have jolted automakers and electronics manufacturers into urgently sourcing magnets from outside China, even at steep premiums.

The impact was immediate. Rahim Suleman, CEO of Neo Performance Materials, which recently launched a magnet facility in Estonia, noted a surge in demand without needing to pitch for new business. “The phone is ringing off the hook,” he said, as clients scramble to secure non-Chinese supply in the face of rising geopolitical risk.

Premium Pricing Becomes the New Normal—for Now

Manufacturers once reluctant to absorb higher costs for magnets made outside China are now conceding. Industry sources report premiums of $10–$30 per kilogram for ex-China magnets—an increase that adds $20–$120 per EV depending on magnet volume. In Korea, customers of NovaTech are already paying 15–20% more for magnets produced in Vietnam. Germany’s Schaeffler and other unnamed automakers have also signed deals with Neo’s Estonia plant, according to company disclosures.

But such premiums are a double-edged sword. On one hand, they are essential to finance the emergence of ex-China production; on the other, they risk cutting into margins in industries like automotive manufacturing already battling price wars. As one European automaker put it, “We can’t absorb excessive premiums across all raw materials and still sell competitively on a global scale.”

Long Road Ahead to Challenge China's Dominance

While non-Chinese players are receiving more orders, their scale remains limited. China still accounts for around 90% of global permanent magnet supply. New facilities in Europe, the U.S., and Southeast Asia are only starting to ramp up, and it may take years—if not decades—to reach sufficient capacity and cost efficiency.

This imbalance creates a complex market dynamic: premiums must be high enough to sustain new investment but low enough to avoid demand destruction. Project Blue estimates that NdPr (neodymium-praseodymium oxide) prices must range between $75 and $105/kg to support global demand outside China. Australia’s Barrenjoey places the necessary price range even higher, between $120 and $180/kg to fund approximately 20 new mining and processing projects.

Yet current pricing for Chinese NdPr remains significantly lower—around $62/kg—posing a competitive challenge. One rare earth executive emphasized that “the cost of a one-month shutdown due to shortages dwarfs any premium we might pay,” reinforcing the causal logic driving firms toward supply chain diversification despite price shocks.

Crisis Accelerates Innovation and Regional Expansion

The supply crisis has also accelerated diversification efforts. NovaTech is investing 10 billion won in a new Vietnamese plant using locally processed rare earths. Britain’s Less Common Metals is exploring expansion into France. Meanwhile, demand-side innovations are surfacing: BMW and others are reducing or eliminating rare earth usage in select EV models.

However, analysts warn this isn’t a widespread solution. Rare earths remain critical to high-performance magnets and most electrified systems, and substitutes either underperform or come with other trade-offs.

Industry Struggles to Define Sustainable Premiums

The current surge in willingness to pay premiums reflects urgency, not long-term equilibrium. Neo’s Suleman cautions that if costs escalate too far, demand destruction becomes a real threat. “We need to be responsible,” he said, emphasizing the importance of collaborative pricing models that secure investment without overwhelming downstream customers.

Some automakers have accepted moderate premiums of 5–10% for sustainably sourced critical minerals, but wide consensus on what constitutes a “fair” premium has yet to emerge.

China’s export restrictions have reshaped the rare earth magnet market overnight, exposing global dependencies and triggering a race to diversify. While buyers are currently absorbing higher costs to ensure access, the industry faces a delicate balancing act: securing resilient supply chains without collapsing demand through excessive pricing. The long-term success of ex-China supply efforts will hinge on technological innovation, policy support, and pricing discipline across the value chain.

Source: Reuters

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Manufacturing Activity Nears Growth Threshold Amid Order Book Rebound

Eurozone manufacturing activity in June 2025 signaled early signs of a recovery, as the region's HCOB Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) edged up to 49.5 from 49.4 in May, its highest in nearly two years. Though the reading still fell short of the 50-point mark—indicating ongoing contraction—the results underscore a significant shift: new orders neither fell nor grew, effectively ending a 37-month period of uninterrupted decline.

This stabilization in order flow marks a turning point for a sector that has struggled under the weight of weak external demand, persistent inflationary pressures, and sluggish industrial output. The causal relationship is clear—rising new orders typically precede broader output recovery, suggesting the current momentum may evolve into expansion territory in the second half of the year.

Output Slows but Remains Positive

Despite improved new order dynamics, the manufacturing output index slipped to 50.8 from 51.5, a three-month low, although still above the 50 expansion threshold. This moderation suggests that while order volumes have stabilized, firms remain cautious in scaling up production aggressively—likely due to lagging employment growth and regional economic divergence.

Manufacturers also continued shedding jobs, with the employment index staying below 50 for a second consecutive year. This disconnection between stabilizing demand and continued workforce reduction reflects firms’ cautious stance, possibly driven by high labor costs, automation shifts, or residual uncertainty about the durability of demand recovery.

Export Orders Improve and Delivery Times Lengthen—Early Signs of Demand Strength

Another promising indicator emerged as export orders ceased their downward trajectory for the first time since March 2022. While modest, this signals a potential revival in external demand, particularly relevant for economies such as Germany and the Netherlands with high export-dependency.

Longer delivery times—traditionally seen as negative—were interpreted positively in this context. Rather than reflecting supply-side bottlenecks, they now suggest improved demand flow, as orders stretch production and logistics schedules slightly.

Regional Performance Diverges Sharply

PMI data continued to show stark national disparities. Ireland led the bloc with a 53.7 reading—its highest in over three years—while Greece, Spain, and the Netherlands also posted expansionary figures. Germany, although still in contraction at 49.0, reached its strongest level in nearly three years, buoyed by optimism over its new government’s fiscal growth package.

By contrast, France, Italy, and Austria recorded steeper manufacturing declines, dragging down the overall bloc’s performance. These disparities highlight that the eurozone’s recovery is uneven, with export-oriented northern countries showing faster rebounds than their southern counterparts.

Business Optimism Strengthens Amid Cost Relief

Business confidence across the euro area improved markedly, reaching its highest level since February 2022. German manufacturers, in particular, were notably upbeat about future production prospects, reflecting faith in the policy direction and demand outlook.

Simultaneously, input costs continued their descent, with June marking the third consecutive month of falling purchasing prices. This deflationary trend in production inputs contributed to a further, albeit slight, decline in factory gate prices. The relationship is causal: lower input costs create pricing room for manufacturers, easing margin pressures and supporting competitiveness, particularly in export markets.

Implications for ECB Policy Path

The European Central Bank, which has been in an extended easing cycle, is now expected to conclude its interest rate cuts with one final reduction in September, according to a Reuters poll. The stabilization of the manufacturing sector could support the case for a pause after September, especially if inflation risks return or growth re-accelerates more quickly than expected.

June’s PMI data for the eurozone manufacturing sector signals cautious optimism. While activity remains technically in contraction, the end of the three-year decline in new orders marks a potential inflection point. If momentum in export demand, cost moderation, and German fiscal support continue, the sector could shift into growth territory in the coming months. However, employment weakness and regional disparities remain risks that could temper the recovery’s strength and breadth.

Source: Reuters

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Michelle

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Economic

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced its growth forecast for the Swiss economy to 1.3% for 2025, down from its previous projection of 1.7%.

In its latest report released on Tuesday, the IMF cited worsening geopolitical tensions and tariffs as factors negatively affecting economic performance in Switzerland.

The IMF also provided its first outlook for 2026, projecting Swiss economic growth of 1.2%. Both forecasts fall below Switzerland’s long-term average growth rate of 1.8%.

These figures have been adjusted to account for the impact of sporting events, which can distort economic data due to broadcast income received by Swiss-based organizations such as FIFA and the International Olympic Committee.

The IMF’s downward revisions follow similar forecast cuts by the Swiss government and the Swiss National Bank.

"With global headwinds, growth is projected to remain somewhat below potential in 2025-26," the IMF stated in its report.

Source: Investing

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Economic

EU Seeks Strategic Balance Under Looming U.S. Tariff Regime

The European Union is navigating high-stakes trade negotiations with the United States as President Trump pushes for a sweeping 10% universal tariff on imports, alongside higher sector-specific levies. While the EU is prepared to accept the framework of a uniform tariff, it is urgently seeking exemptions or adjusted rates for critical sectors such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft. This negotiation comes under the shadow of a July 9 deadline, after which nearly all EU exports to the U.S. would face a 50% tariff absent a deal.

This approach reflects the EU’s pragmatic pivot toward damage control: while the bloc cannot prevent U.S. protectionism, it aims to mitigate the impact on industries that are export-intensive, innovation-driven, or highly integrated into transatlantic supply chains.

Automotive, Steel, and Aluminum Sectors at the Heart of Talks

Among the most contentious issues are the U.S. tariffs on European automobiles (25%) and steel and aluminum (50%). In 2024, the EU exported €52.8 billion worth of cars and parts to the U.S., and €24 billion in steel and aluminum, with Germany, France, and Italy as top contributors. These sectors are disproportionately exposed to any breakdown in trade negotiations.

The EU is asking Washington to offer quota-based relief and tiered exemptions to avoid sweeping damage to these key industries. There is a clear causal concern here: failing to secure exemptions would erode the global competitiveness of EU exporters and amplify the political and economic cost of Trump's “America First” tariff doctrine.

Negotiation Strategy Focuses on Interim Compromise

With time running short, the European Commission hopes to secure an interim agreement that would allow negotiations to continue beyond the deadline. This transitional accord would ideally preserve space for resolving more complex tariff and non-tariff barriers and lay the groundwork for strategic cooperation in areas such as artificial intelligence, liquefied natural gas, and economic security.

EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic is set to join the Brussels team in Washington this week, signaling the urgency of direct high-level engagement. While the Commission has not disclosed the full details of the American offer, internal discussions among member states suggest that Brussels is considering a range of outcomes, from a deal with “acceptable asymmetry” to full-scale retaliation should talks collapse.

Markets React to Progress, But Asymmetry Remains a Concern

Markets responded swiftly to early news of EU acceptance. The S&P 500 briefly fell before rebounding, while the Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.6%. This suggests investors are cautiously optimistic that a disruptive tariff war might be avoided. ING strategist Vincent Juvyns noted that markets are interpreting the dialogue through a “glass-half-full” lens.

Still, the EU’s willingness to accept an imbalanced deal—favoring the U.S. in aggregate—signals not just diplomatic compromise but also concern about the consequences of failed negotiations. The EU estimates that current U.S. tariffs affect €380 billion worth of European exports, or around 70% of total goods shipped to the U.S. market.

Contingency Planning: The EU’s Retaliatory Arsenal

Even as it negotiates in good faith, the EU is preparing a comprehensive countermeasure package should Trump walk away. Already approved are tariffs on €21 billion worth of U.S. goods, strategically targeting swing states and political constituencies, including agricultural products and motorcycles.

Additionally, Brussels has drawn up a second list of retaliatory tariffs worth €95 billion, which could affect U.S. exports like Boeing aircraft, bourbon, and U.S.-made automobiles. Beyond tariffs, the EU is also exploring export controls, public procurement exclusions, and leveraging areas where the U.S. depends on EU technologies or inputs.

The EU’s conditional acceptance of Trump’s universal tariff proposal marks a shift toward strategic accommodation, yet the negotiation outcome remains finely balanced. With critical sectors hanging in the balance and retaliation tools already locked and loaded, the coming days will define whether the transatlantic relationship moves toward compromise or conflict. Any resolution—interim or final—will shape trade flows, political alliances, and global supply chains far beyond the July 9 deadline.