JPMorgan Sees $6,300 Gold by 2026 Amid Surging Demand

JPMorgan has substantially increased its gold price forecast, now targeting $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026. This bullish projection stands firm despite recent market volatility, backed by what the bank sees as powerful and sustained demand from central banks and global investors.

Even after a sharp pullback in both gold and silver last week, analysts at the firm believe the fundamental drivers for gold remain strong. They argue that the "longer-term rally momentum will remain intact," stating they are "firmly bullishly convicted in gold over the medium-term."

Central Banks Lead the Charge

A primary factor behind the upgraded forecast is unexpectedly strong buying from the official sector. Central banks purchased approximately 230 tonnes of gold in the fourth quarter of 2025, contributing to a total of roughly 863 tonnes for the year, even as prices surpassed $4,000 an ounce.

JPMorgan anticipates this trend will continue, forecasting around 800 tonnes of central bank demand in 2026. The bank views this as part of a structural shift toward reserve diversification that has significant room to grow.

Investor Demand Adds Fuel to the Rally

Alongside official sector purchases, investor inflows have also been accelerating. Analysts noted rising ETF holdings and robust demand for physical bars and coins. Gold is increasingly being used in portfolios as a hedge against a wide spectrum of macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.

"Gold remains a dynamic, multi-faceted portfolio hedge and investor demand has continued to come in stronger than our previous expectations," wrote a team led by analyst Gregory Shearer. "We now forecast enough demand from central banks and investors this year to ultimately push gold prices to $6,300/oz by year end 2026."

Is the Price Rally Sustainable?

While acknowledging the rapid pace of gold's recent ascent, JPMorgan's analysts pushed back on concerns that prices are reaching unsustainable levels. Their analysis indicates that demand remains well above the historical threshold required to keep the market tightening, even as prices climb.

"While the air is getting thinner the higher we go in gold prices, we are not yet close to a place where the structural rally in gold is at risk of collapsing under its own weight," they added.

A More Cautious Outlook for Silver

In contrast to its conviction on gold, the bank expressed a more cautious view on silver following its recent dramatic price movements. Analysts noted that silver lacks the structural support from central banks, which often act as dip buyers for gold. This leaves silver vulnerable to "a potentially deeper shakeout" in the near term compared to gold.

While silver forecasts carry a "high" margin of error, JPMorgan sees a higher average price floor for the metal around $75 to $80 an ounce. The analysts believe it is "unlikely to fully relinquish its recent gains" after its sharp catch-up rally. Over the longer term, the bank expects higher prices will reshape silver's supply and demand balance, gradually eroding the deficit that fueled its recent surge.