Japan’s Automotive Giants Turn to India as Strategic Alternative to China

Economic

Summary:

Japanese automakers like Toyota, Suzuki, and Honda are shifting billions in investment from China to India, where annual FDI from Japan has risen over sevenfold since 2021...

India emerges as Japan’s new production powerhouse

In one of the most pivotal industrial shifts of the decade, leading Japanese carmakers Toyota, Honda, and Suzuki are dramatically pivoting away from China and pouring investments into India. According to Autoblog, these companies have committed more than $11 billion to building and expanding their manufacturing capabilities across India. The goal: to transform India into a global manufacturing and export hub for affordable vehicles, especially as geopolitical and market dynamics make China a less favorable option.

Toyota alone is investing over $3 billion to expand its southern India factory and build a new facility, boosting annual capacity to over one million vehicles. Suzuki, meanwhile, is deploying $8 billion to raise its production from 2.5 million to 4 million cars annually. Honda has also announced plans to begin electric vehicle (EV) production in India by 2027.

FDI flows shift dramatically from China to India

This strategic relocation is backed by a striking realignment in foreign direct investment (FDI). Japanese FDI into India surged from under $300 million in 2021 to nearly $1.92 billion in 2024 a more than sevenfold increase. In stark contrast, Japanese investment in China has plunged 83% over the same period, now standing at roughly $300 million.

The reasons are clear: India offers cost-effective manufacturing, abundant labor, and a policy environment that restricts Chinese EV competitors, shielding Japanese firms in one of the world’s fastest-growing automotive markets.

India’s export growth and tariff advantage

India’s rise as a vehicle exporter is accelerating. In FY2024, it produced five million passenger vehicles, exporting around 800,000 of them a 19% year-on-year increase. With exports to Latin America and Africa expanding rapidly, India is positioning itself as a key global supplier of low-cost vehicles and parts.

Critically, passenger cars and components exported from India currently enjoy tariff-free access to the U.S., giving Japanese firms an edge amid rising protectionism and global supply chain recalibration. This contrasts sharply with Chinese-made cars, which continue to face mounting trade barriers in Western markets.

Rising domestic potential: Demographics, not saturation

India surpassed Japan in 2023 to become the world’s third-largest auto market, selling 4.27 million vehicles versus Japan’s 4.25 million. Yet, India’s vehicle ownership remains low only 44 cars per 1,000 people compared to 251 in China and 502 in Japan. This underscores immense room for domestic expansion, particularly in the affordable segment where Japanese firms are strongest.

The Indian auto industry has grown 60% since 2015 and is supported by favorable demographics, rising incomes, and government incentives for local manufacturing. For Japanese automakers aiming to dominate the global low-cost vehicle space, India represents both a vast domestic opportunity and a scalable base for exports.

The shift by Japan’s automotive giants to India is not just a geographic realignment it’s a strategic repositioning in a post-China world. While China remains a manufacturing giant, India’s demographic profile, cost competitiveness, and growing global connectivity make it an increasingly attractive long-term bet. If current trends continue, India could soon rival traditional industrial centers not just in scale, but in strategic value across global automotive supply chains.

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Political

Budapest challenges EU’s legal basis for energy sanctions

On November 14, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán declared that his government will take legal action against the European Union at the European Court of Justice. The move follows the EU’s recently adopted plan to phase out all Russian gas imports by January 1, 2028, a step Hungary deems both unlawful and economically harmful.

Orbán claims that the decision, endorsed on October 20 by EU energy ministers, violated the EU’s own legal protocols. Instead of requiring unanimous consent from all 27 member states, the policy was passed via “qualified majority”, a method that mandates only 55% of member states representing at least 65% of the EU population. Orbán argues this procedural choice is valid only for trade policy decisions, not for sanctions, which traditionally require full consensus.

Policy distinction at the heart of the legal dispute

According to Orbán, the EU’s classification of the gas ban as a trade measure is a legal maneuver designed to circumvent the requirement for unanimity. He insists that the gas phase-out carries the hallmarks of a sanctions regime, particularly given its roots in geopolitical tensions following the Russia–Ukraine conflict. As such, he asserts that it should have required approval from all member states, including Hungary and Slovakia both of which openly opposed the plan.

Speaking on national radio, Orbán called the decision a violation of European values and insisted that energy security cannot be sacrificed for political signaling. He also hinted that Budapest is exploring additional countermeasures to block or delay implementation of the gas ban.

The EU’s broader energy diversification agenda

The gas ban is part of the EU’s broader strategy to eliminate dependence on Russian fossil fuels, first outlined in the 2022 Versailles Declaration following the invasion of Ukraine. While Russian oil imports to the EU have dropped to below 3% of total supply, Russian natural gas still accounted for roughly 13% of the bloc’s gas imports in 2025 valued at more than €15 billion annually, according to Council data.

Under the current EU plan, new contracts for Russian gas will be banned starting January 1, 2026. Short-term contracts must end by mid-2026, and long-term contracts will be terminated by January 1, 2028. These measures aim to reduce the EU’s geopolitical vulnerability and further isolate Moscow economically.

Energy security vs political cohesion

Hungary and Slovakia have both warned that the gas ban could significantly raise energy prices and undermine supply stability in Central Europe. Orbán argues that energy policy should remain outside of partisan or ideological conflicts and emphasized that economic stability is a prerequisite for political unity and security.

Hungary continues to import Russian gas, alongside countries like Slovakia and Belgium, making it one of the last holdouts as most EU members diversify their energy sources. Orbán’s stance underscores the tension between collective EU goals and national energy interests, especially for member states still deeply tied to Russian infrastructure.

Hungary’s decision to legally challenge the EU’s Russian gas embargo could test the limits of EU procedural law and unity on foreign policy. As Brussels accelerates its decoupling from Russian energy, resistance from Orbán’s government reflects deeper fractures within the bloc over how to balance legal legitimacy, energy security, and geopolitical strategy. The outcome of this dispute at the European Court of Justice may set a precedent for future EU decision-making in crisis contexts.

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Economic

A booming market shaped by health-conscious consumers and demographic momentum

At the 2025 International Conference on Functional Foods held in Taipei, updated projections highlighted the significant growth trajectory of Vietnam's functional food and dietary supplement (FFDS) market. Valued at nearly $900 million in 2024, the sector is forecasted to exceed $1.95 billion by 2033, reflecting a compound annual growth rate driven by demographic trends, evolving consumer behavior, and robust digital policy support.

CEO Trần Viết Thanh of Life Gift Vietnam emphasized three socio-demographic pillars propelling this growth. First, with over 101 million citizens, Vietnam ranks as Southeast Asia’s third most populous country, offering a vast, youthful, and increasingly health-conscious consumer base. Second, a rapidly expanding middle class is fueling greater investment in wellness. Third, a steadily aging population is creating surging demand for supplements focused on cardiovascular health, bone and joint support, cognitive function, immunity, and general nutrition.

These intersecting forces are creating what Thanh described as a “golden window” of opportunity for domestic and regional businesses, investors, and health product manufacturers. Vietnam, he asserted, is not only a high-potential consumer market but also a transparent and promising destination for FFDS-related investment.

Functional foods moving from healthcare support to health economy pillars

According to data from Mordor Intelligence, the global functional food market reached $186 billion in 2023 and is expected to surpass $370 billion by 2025, growing at nearly 8% annually. Functional foods are evolving from supplementary healthcare aids to core drivers of the modern health economy. As consumers increasingly prioritize personalized nutrition, technologies like AI, big data, and biotechnology are redefining the sector, aligning it with the vision of a "smart health ecosystem."

In this context, Vietnam is well-positioned to integrate itself more deeply into the regional supply chain. With over 60% of adults having used at least one functional food product, Vietnam already boasts one of the highest consumption rates in Asia.

Digitalization, standardization, and cross-border cooperation as strategic pillars

Thanh argued that sustainable development in the FFDS sector depends on three interlinked strategies. First is innovation and technological mastery, including control over production processes, digital transformation, and rigorous product testing. Second is strict compliance with both domestic and international standards, ensuring global product readiness. Third is international collaboration through research partnerships, technology transfer, and development of globally compliant health solutions.

The Vietnamese government’s macroeconomic direction and digitalization policies are enhancing the stability of the investment environment and encouraging foreign companies to enter the market. Local reforms such as GMP production standardization, transparent supply chain traceability, and tighter enforcement against violations are aligning Vietnam more closely with global benchmarks.

Local advantages driving international investment interest

Vietnam’s appeal lies not only in its demand-side dynamics but also in its production-side competitiveness. The country benefits from abundant indigenous medicinal resources, low-cost production capacity, and a high level of global integration. These advantages are drawing attention from Taiwanese companies and other international firms exploring expansion and partnership opportunities in Vietnam.

The 2025 International Conference served as a platform for regional dialogue on “Precision Marketing Strategies for Functional Foods and Their Export Expansion.” It emphasized how digital marketing, data-driven strategies, and regional cooperation can unlock trade potential and accelerate sectoral innovation across Asia.

Vietnam’s functional food sector stands at a pivotal juncture. While opportunity abounds, the market also faces increasing demands for transparency, product quality, and regulatory compliance. If stakeholders align on innovation, standardization, and international collaboration, Vietnam is poised to become not just a high-growth market but also a key regional hub in the health economy where science, technology, and consumer wellness converge for sustainable value creation.

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Economic

A unified digital push against VAT evasion

On November 14, the European Commission (EC) unveiled a sweeping proposal aimed at reinforcing tax enforcement across the EU by enhancing coordination between national tax authorities, the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO), and the European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF). The core goal is to bolster the Union’s capacity to prevent and prosecute VAT-related fraud especially carousel fraud, a major form of cross-border tax evasion.

This proposed legal amendment would authorize direct and secure data exchanges between agencies, paving the way for faster detection of irregularities, more accurate investigations, and a stronger safeguard of EU financial interests. If adopted, this would mark a milestone in the Union’s efforts to modernize its tax architecture and respond effectively to increasingly sophisticated financial crimes.

Massive financial losses prompt urgent reform

Carousel fraud, officially classified as Missing Trader Intra-Community (MTIC) fraud, is estimated to cost EU member states between €12.5 billion and €32.8 billion annually. It involves organized criminal networks exploiting the EU’s VAT system through a series of rapid cross-border transactions that result in substantial unpaid tax.

In 2022 alone, total VAT revenue loss across the EU reached an estimated €89.3 billion. This illustrates the urgent need for structural reforms and a more unified digital infrastructure to support financial oversight and prevent future revenue leakage.

Real-time reporting and direct agency collaboration

A central component of the proposal is the establishment of a legal framework for real-time digital VAT reporting on cross-border transactions. This digital transformation is part of the EU’s broader “VAT in the Digital Age” package, which aims to make tax monitoring faster, more accurate, and resistant to fraud.

For the first time, EPPO and OLAF would be granted real-time access to VAT data when necessary, enabling them to act quickly on suspicious transactions. In parallel, the reform creates permanent and secure communication channels between these two EU bodies and Eurofisc the specialized network of VAT anti-fraud experts in member states.

Such digital connectivity will allow investigative authorities to identify fraud patterns earlier, coordinate multi-country investigations more efficiently, and facilitate faster prosecutions, thereby closing the enforcement gap exploited by cross-border tax criminals.

Towards a transparent and trusted tax environment

By proposing to institutionalize proactive data sharing, automated tax risk assessments, and more efficient investigative workflows, the EU is not only addressing financial fraud but also reinforcing the credibility of its tax system. The reform seeks to foster a business climate that is fairer and more transparent, benefiting compliant taxpayers and legitimate enterprises.

It also reflects the EU’s broader vision of using digital tools to strengthen internal market governance, a goal that is increasingly important in times of budgetary constraints and fiscal strain caused by economic volatility and geopolitical instability.

Next steps for legislative approval

The proposal will now move to the Council of the European Union for approval and will be reviewed by the European Parliament and the Economic and Social Committee. Once approved and published in the EU’s Official Journal, the new regulations will enter into force and proceed to full implementation.

The European Commission’s latest VAT initiative represents a strategic step forward in combating systemic tax fraud. Through real-time digital coordination and cross-border transparency, the EU is fortifying its fiscal defenses, recovering lost revenue, and sending a clear signal that fraud will no longer find refuge in regulatory fragmentation.

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Economic

A bold fiscal pivot to escape economic stagnation

Germany, the largest economy in Europe, is embarking on an aggressive fiscal shift aimed at reviving growth after two consecutive years of recession. On November 14, German lawmakers announced that the Bundestag’s Budget Committee had approved a revised 2026 financial plan, enabling far more public borrowing than originally forecast. This move follows a strategic consensus reached on November 13 by Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his coalition partners to implement wide-ranging economic support measures.

The centerpiece of this plan is the suspension of Germany’s traditional debt brake, a constitutional rule that limits government borrowing. By easing these constraints, the government intends to unlock substantial funds for infrastructure development, defense upgrades, and industrial support, reversing a long-standing culture of fiscal conservatism.

Electricity subsidies and tax reliefs target industrial revival

Key sectors of Germany’s economy, including steel and chemicals, will benefit from a temporary subsidy that reduces industrial electricity prices to just 5 euro cents per kilowatt-hour for the 2026–2028 period. This is seen as a crucial measure to maintain the competitiveness of energy-intensive industries grappling with high costs.

In addition, the ruling CDU/CSU-SPD coalition has reversed a previously planned aviation tax hike, delivering a projected €350 million in relief to the struggling airline sector. These measures align with Chancellor Merz’s stated vision that “a strong Germany needs a strong economy and well-paid, secure jobs.”

Surging borrowing sparks internal political rifts

Under the revised 2026 budget, Germany’s total spending is expected to reach €524.5 billion (approximately $610 billion), with new borrowing projected at nearly €98 billion. This marks a notable increase from the €89.9 billion proposed in July 2025 and a significant jump from the €82 billion expected for 2025.

A substantial portion of the new debt is earmarked for military modernization, responding to chronic underfunding amid heightened security demands. However, this borrowing-heavy approach has ignited debate in a country historically proud of its low-debt profile.

Sebastian Schaefer, budget spokesperson for the Green Party, voiced strong criticism, accusing the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition of lacking a long-term strategic plan and mismanaging special infrastructure and climate funds. He further warned that current fiscal decisions could cost the state an estimated €3–5 billion in missed opportunities or inefficiencies.

Between short-term stimulus and long-term reform

While the revised budget demonstrates Germany’s willingness to invest its way out of economic malaise, critics argue that relying on expanded borrowing without structural reform risks undermining fiscal sustainability. The debate underscores a broader ideological split: should economic recovery be pursued through immediate stimulus or deeper, long-term transformation?

Germany’s 2026 fiscal overhaul represents a dramatic reorientation of its post-recession recovery strategy, prioritizing public investment and defense readiness over fiscal restraint. Although this approach may provide short-term economic relief and geopolitical resilience, its long-term success will depend on whether the borrowed funds are strategically deployed to create lasting growth rather than temporary stimulus. As the Bundestag moves forward with implementing this plan, the stakes are high for both Germany’s domestic economy and its role in Europe’s broader economic stability.

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Economic

Early consensus marks a pivotal step in EU financial planning

In the early hours of November 15, the European Union announced that it had reached a provisional agreement on its 2026 budget following extended negotiations between representatives of member states and the European Parliament (EP). This agreement paves the way for the EU to finalize its financial planning for the coming year against a backdrop of escalating economic and security challenges.

The deal sets total committed spending for 2026 at approximately €192.8 billion (around $224 billion). This includes a €715 million contingency fund, designed to enhance the EU’s financial flexibility in responding to unforeseen events, aligning with calls from several member states for greater fiscal resilience amid ongoing global instability.

Strategic increases override initial austerity proposals

During earlier stages of negotiation, several countries had proposed capping the budget at €186.2 billion, citing the need for fiscal discipline. However, through continued deliberations, the parties agreed to raise the ceiling by €6.6 billion. This additional funding will be directed toward strategic EU priorities, including defense integration, border management, and bolstering economic competitiveness reflecting the bloc’s shift toward addressing emerging security threats and reinforcing internal cohesion.

The EP played a crucial role in rejecting proposed spending cuts that would have reduced funding for these priority sectors. By maintaining and even increasing investment in key areas, the Parliament underscored the importance of balancing fiscal responsibility with strategic capacity-building.

Next steps: Formal approval and legislative endorsement

This provisional budget still requires formal endorsement by the EU Council, scheduled for November 24, before it proceeds to a plenary vote in the European Parliament later this month. If passed, it will allow the EU to maintain financial stability while supporting its long-term policy goals in a highly unpredictable global environment.

The 2026 budget agreement highlights the EU’s proactive approach in reinforcing its financial and strategic posture. While the final approval process is still pending, the early consensus reflects strong institutional cooperation and a shared commitment to economic resilience and geopolitical preparedness. As the world grapples with growing uncertainty, the EU's ability to align budgetary decisions with its strategic agenda will be key to maintaining unity and influence on the global stage.

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Economic

Commodity

Major pipeline investment underscores U.S. as key energy partner

Canada’s leading pipeline operator, Enbridge, has greenlit a $1.4 billion investment to expand its Mainline and Flanagan South systems, aiming to boost oil exports to the United States. The upgrade, expected to be completed by 2027, will add 250,000 barrels per day in capacity, enabling Canadian crude to flow more efficiently to key refining hubs in the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast.

Despite Canada’s stated goal of diversifying its oil export markets to mitigate risks from volatile U.S. trade policy especially under former and possibly future President Donald Trump the expansion toward the southern neighbor remains strategically and economically compelling. As Enbridge’s Executive Vice President Colin Gruending put it, the U.S. is home to the world's largest refining complex and remains eager to absorb more Canadian crude.

Pipeline capacity expansion follows record oil output

Canada produced a record 5.1 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2024, and Enbridge projects that output could grow by an additional 500,000 to 600,000 barrels per day before 2030. With demand from U.S. refiners continuing and infrastructure gradually expanding, Enbridge transported an average of 3.1 million barrels per day in Q3 through its Mainline system.

In parallel with this first-phase expansion, Enbridge is also evaluating commercial interest in a second phase that could add another 250,000 barrels per day of capacity. These investments are not only timely but necessary to match the projected output growth and prevent bottlenecks in distribution.

Complementary efforts to reach Asian markets through Trans Mountain

While the U.S. remains the primary market absorbing 90% of Canadian oil exports Canada is actively pursuing longer-term diversification. The Alberta government is reviewing the feasibility of a new crude oil pipeline to the coast of British Columbia to enhance access to Asia-Pacific markets.

Currently, the Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMX), federally owned and Canada’s only direct route to Asian buyers, has already tripled its capacity through a massive CAD 34 billion ($24.2 billion USD) expansion. The operator is now considering additional upgrades that could add 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day by 2029.

Together, the TMX upgrades and Enbridge’s U.S.-bound expansion represent a dual strategy: reinforcing the dependable U.S. export corridor while laying groundwork for more diversified future trade.

Regulatory barriers still limit Canada’s oil potential

Although physical infrastructure is expanding, regulatory hurdles remain a limiting factor for Canadian energy ambitions. Gruending emphasized that if the federal government reduces policy and permitting constraints, Canada's supply growth could exceed current forecasts. Removing these obstacles would be key to unlocking further investment and enabling Canada to capitalize on global energy demand during a decade of transition.

Canada’s $1.4 billion investment into its U.S.-bound pipeline network reflects both the urgency and complexity of managing energy security in a shifting geopolitical landscape. While new opportunities in Asia are being pursued, the proximity, infrastructure, and market appetite of the U.S. continue to make it Canada’s most vital energy partner. If supported by regulatory reform, these infrastructure expansions could ensure Canada’s competitiveness as a major oil exporter well into the next decade.

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