Indonesia Proposes Critical Minerals Joint Venture to U.S. in Tariff Talks

Economic

Summary:

As part of ongoing tariff negotiations with the United States, Indonesia has proposed a joint investment in a critical minerals project, aiming to align economic diplomacy with its resource development strategy...

Strategic Resources Take Center Stage in Trade Diplomacy

Indonesia’s senior economic minister, Airlangga Hartarto, announced Monday that Jakarta has formally offered Washington an opportunity to co-invest in a major critical minerals initiative. The move comes as part of broader tariff discussions between the two nations, positioning natural resource cooperation as a lever to unlock concessions on trade.

This strategic proposal reflects Indonesia’s push to capitalize on its rich reserves of key minerals such as nickel, cobalt, and rare earth elements — all vital components in electric vehicle batteries, electronics, and renewable energy infrastructure. By involving the U.S. in upstream resource development, Indonesia is seeking to deepen bilateral ties and reduce future exposure to trade-related disruptions.

Danantara Indonesia at the Core of the Partnership

The proposed joint project will be managed by Danantara Indonesia, the country's sovereign wealth fund. This inclusion signals Jakarta's intention to ensure both transparency and strategic alignment in managing national resource assets. Danantara's participation would likely facilitate smoother financial structuring and oversight, offering the U.S. a more stable and state-backed investment framework.

While full details of the project — including location, resource type, and scale — have yet to be disclosed, officials suggest the plan could provide the U.S. with direct access to critical minerals outside of China, aligning with Washington’s ongoing efforts to diversify its supply chains.

Geopolitical and Economic Context

The proposal is particularly timely as the U.S. government accelerates its global search for alternative critical mineral sources amid rising tensions with Beijing. U.S. officials have repeatedly stressed the need for “friend-shoring” supply chains, and Indonesia, the world’s largest nickel producer, represents a compelling partner.

The announcement also coincides with President Donald Trump’s ongoing efforts to renegotiate tariffs and trading terms with key partners in Asia, including Vietnam and Japan. Offering U.S. investors a stake in resource extraction and processing could make Indonesia more attractive as a long-term trade and industrial ally.

Implications and Outlook

If successful, the joint investment initiative could reshape Indonesia-U.S. trade relations, shifting the focus from commodity exports to collaborative resource development. It could also position Indonesia more firmly within the U.S.-led economic security network in the Indo-Pacific region.

Analysts will be watching whether this offer leads to meaningful concessions in U.S. tariff policy or investment incentives, particularly in the electric vehicle and battery manufacturing sectors. The outcome could also set a precedent for other resource-rich ASEAN countries negotiating with Washington.

Further details on the project and formal responses from the U.S. Trade Representative’s office are expected in the coming weeks.

Source: Reuters

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[Quick Facts]

1. German Corporate Bankruptcies hit ten-year high in first half of year.

2. Trump's "Big and Beautiful" Bill clears key Senate hurdle; Democrats employ delaying tactics.

3. The United States has reached an agreement with G7 members to establish a "parallel" system to avoid a global tax war.

4. Yemen's Houthis vow to continue attacks against Israel.

5. Japanese poll shows Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's cabinet support below 30% for fourth consecutive month.

6. Trump hopes Powell resigns, vows not to appoint Fed Chair who won't cut rates.

7. U.S. firms to gain exemptions from parts of Global Minimum Tax under G7 Deal.

8. Yemen's Houthis vow unabated attacks on Israel.

9. OPEC+ poised for another major output hike in August.

10. April GDP report signals imminent Bank of Canada rate cut.

11. Core PCE inflation edges higher while consumer spending unexpectedly contracts.

[News Details]

German Corporate Bankruptcies hit ten-year high in first half of year

Data recently released by German credit rating agency Creditreform shows that in the first half of this year, the number of corporate bankruptcies registered in Germany reached 11,900, a 9.4% increase compared to the same period last year, reaching the highest level in ten years. Patrik-Ludwig Hantzsch, the agency's economic expert, stated that German companies are facing multiple challenges, including weak demand, rising costs, and uncertainty. He predicts that the number of corporate bankruptcies in Germany will keep growing until the end of this year.

Trump's "Big and Beautiful" Bill clears key Senate hurdle; Democrats employ delaying tactics

On June 28th local time, the US Senate passed a procedural motion by a vote of 51 to 49, aimed at advancing the large-scale tax and spending bill dubbed "Big and Beautiful" by President Donald Trump. Following the passage of this procedural vote, the likelihood of the bill passing within the coming days has increased. It is understood that after this procedural motion is passed, the massive tax and spending bill will undergo recitation, debate, amendment votes, and a final vote, a process expected to take several days. This leaves less than one week before the July 4th deadline set by Trump. Not only did all Democrats vote against the motion, but they also employed delaying tactics. On June 28th, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer stated that Democrats would force the Senate to recite the full 940-page bill. The Hill reported that reciting the bill would take 12 hours.

The United States has reached an agreement with G7 members to establish a "parallel" system to avoid a global tax war

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Yemen's Houthis vow to continue attacks against Israel

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Japanese poll shows Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's cabinet support below 30% for fourth consecutive month

A recent poll in Japan revealed that public support for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's cabinet stands at 24%, remaining below 30% for the fourth consecutive month. In Japanese politics, a cabinet approval rating below 30% is viewed by public opinion as entering the "danger zone," while a drop below 20% is considered the "resignation zone." According to Japanese media analysis, if the current governing coalition fails to secure a majority in the July 20th House of Councillors election, Ishiba may lose his position as Prime Minister.

Trump hopes Powell resigns, vows not to appoint Fed Chair who won't cut rates

Last Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump stated he would not appoint anyone as Federal Reserve Chair unless they commit to lowering interest rates beyond current levels. This marks his clearest condition yet for potential candidates to succeed Jerome Powell, making interest rate cuts a non-negotiable requirement for the position.

Trump renewed his attacks on Powell during remarks at the White House, declaring, "I would love it if he resigned, if he wanted to. His performance has been really shoddy." Trump also labeled Powell "a stupid person." With Powell's term expiring in May 2026, Trump has increasingly shifted focus toward potential successors.

In recent weeks, Trump revealed he has three or four candidates in mind and will announce his decision soon. Historically, most Fed chair appointments occur about three to four months before a vacancy. With approximately 10 months remaining in Powell's term, Trump's early nomination push is widely seen as an attempt to undermine Powell's authority, effectively creating a "shadow Fed chair" advocating for divergent policies.

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U.S. firms to gain exemptions from parts of Global Minimum Tax under G7 Deal

According to a Saturday report by the Financial Times, the G7 stated in a declaration that the U.S. and its G7 partners have agreed to support a proposal exempting American companies from certain provisions of the 2021 "global minimum tax". Canada, the current G7 chair, announced in the declaration that a "parallel system" has been established in response to the U.S. government's agreement to repeal Section 899—the retaliatory tax provision—from President Donald Trump's tax and spending bill. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced the agreement with the G7 on June 26th, noting that the G7's acceptance of partial tax exemptions for U.S. firms comes in exchange for removing Section 899, colloquially known as the "retaliatory tax," from the U.S. "Big and Beautiful" Bill.

Yemen's Houthis vow unabated attacks on Israel

OPEC+ poised for another major output hike in August

OPEC+ will consider extending its significant production increases at next month’s meeting, with Saudi Arabia leading efforts to reclaim market share, according to reports. Eight major OPEC+ members have collectively raised output by 411,000 barrels per day (b/d) monthly over the past three months. Several representatives confirmed these nations are prepared to approve another production hike for August during the July 6th meeting. Despite sluggish demand and ample supply, Saudi Arabia directed OPEC+ to accelerate its planned output restoration, an unexpected reversal that briefly drove oil prices to four-year lows in April.

April GDP report signals imminent Bank of Canada rate cut

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Core PCE inflation edges higher while consumer spending unexpectedly contracts

U.S. data released Friday showed the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.3% year-over-year and 0.1% month-over-month in May. The core PCE index increased 2.68% from a year earlier and 0.2% from the prior month.

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Following the PCE release, market expectations for Fed rate cuts saw minimal shifts. According to the CME FedWatch Tool: The probability of holding rates steady in July is 77.3% (previously 79.3%). The probability of a 25-basis-point cut in July is 22.7% (previously 20.7%). The probability of holding rates steady in September is 8.1% (previously 8.2%). The probability of a cumulative 25-bp cut by September is 71.6% (previously 73.3%). The probability of a cumulative 50-bp cut by September is 20.4% (previously 18.5%).

[Today's Focus]

UTC+8 14:00 Germany May Retail Sales (MoM)

UTC+8 20:00 Germany June CPI

UTC+8 22:00 Speech by Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

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Economic

Commodity

Trade Progress Dampens Risk Hedging Demand

Gold extended its downward trajectory on Monday following two consecutive weeks of declines. The drop was driven largely by a "risk-on" sentiment in global markets, as traders priced in the likelihood of progress on several U.S. trade deals ahead of President Donald Trump’s self-imposed July 9 deadline. Spot gold slipped as much as 0.8% in early Asian trading before trimming losses to 0.2%, settling near $3,269.16 an ounce.

The Trump administration is reportedly nearing trade agreements with Mexico, Vietnam, and the European Union, while discussions with India and Japan remain ongoing. Although these deals are unlikely to be comprehensive — echoing the limited nature of previous U.S. pacts with the UK and China — even partial progress has been enough to temporarily ease global risk sentiment and reduce the urgency for safe-haven assets like gold.

Fundamentals Remain Bullish, But Momentum Slows

Despite the recent pullback, gold remains up roughly 25% year-to-date, still supported by lingering geopolitical tensions earlier in the year and persistent structural demand for hedging amid central bank gold buying. However, June is on track to become the metal’s first losing month of 2025. This marks a potential inflection point as the market narrative temporarily shifts from fear-driven accumulation to speculative recalibration based on economic data and trade diplomacy.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped 0.1%, which would typically support gold prices, but it wasn't enough to reverse the decline. Meanwhile, other precious metals showed mixed performances, with silver and palladium falling alongside gold, while platinum posted a modest gain.

Macroeconomic Conditions Undermine Short-Term Gold Support

The fading urgency over Middle East conflicts and an improving outlook for the U.S. economy — particularly in terms of consumer sentiment and inflation expectations — have eroded immediate gold demand. Investors are increasingly eyeing macroeconomic signals, such as the Fed’s potential rate cuts in September and the outcome of Trump’s proposed $4.5 trillion tax-cut bill, which could alter the long-term fiscal and inflationary trajectory.

The tax bill remains controversial, particularly among fiscal conservatives concerned about adding an estimated $3.3 trillion to the U.S. deficit over the next decade. Any stalling or failure of the bill could reintroduce fiscal risk and reignite gold buying. Until then, however, the perceived reduction in global uncertainty has removed some of the urgency for traditional hedges.

Gold's retreat reflects a temporary calming of investor nerves rather than a structural bearish shift. While easing tensions and trade optimism have pressured prices in the short term, the broader macro environment — including potential Federal Reserve easing, persistent fiscal risk, and geopolitical uncertainty — continues to support the long-term bull case. Traders should monitor developments on Capitol Hill and the July 5 U.S. jobs report for the next directional catalyst.

Source: Bloomberg

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James Whitman

Economic

UK car manufacturers can export to the US under a 10% tariff starting Monday, a reduction from the 25% rate imposed by Donald Trump on other countries, as the first elements of an economic agreement between the US president and Prime Minister Keir Starmer come into effect.

British aerospace companies like Rolls Royce Holdings plc also saw 10% tariffs on goods including engines and aircraft parts slashed to zero as of 5:01 a.m. London time. However, there still remained no sign of progress toward lowering levies on the UK’s beleaguered steel industry, which remain at 25% despite Britain previously announcing an agreement to reduce them to zero.

“From today, our world-class automotive and aerospace industries will see tariffs slashed, safeguarding key industries that are vital to our economy,” Starmer said in a statement.

The UK’s business and trade department said Britain was the only country to have secured such a deal with Trump, adding that it would save thousands of jobs.

The new 10% US tariff on British-made cars will apply to an annual quota of 100,000 vehicles, benefiting companies such as Jaguar Land Rover compared with rivals from other nations, although the reduced rate is above the level enjoyed before Trump’s return to office.

While the UK is the only country to be exempted from the global 50% tariff applied by the US to steel, negotiations to remove the 25% levy are proving difficult with issues over ownership and product origin. The failure to implement a zero-tariff deal on steel will serve as a warning to other countries negotiating their own tariff reduction deals with Trump.

The UK will continue to talk to the US about making progress toward zero tariffs on steel as agreed, the business department said, without specifying when it expected that to happen.

Source: Bloomberg

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Gerik

Economic

Resilient Markets and Bigger Bets Power M&A Rebound

Global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the first half of 2025 have outperformed cautious expectations, with total deal value reaching $2.14 trillion—up 26% year-over-year—despite market turbulence sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff war and elevated interest rates. While the total number of deals dropped, the average deal size grew significantly, with a notable 62% rise in $10 billion-plus transactions compared to the same period in 2024.

The unexpected strength in M&A stems largely from a late-quarter resurgence in U.S. equity markets and renewed optimism among institutional investors. According to Dealogic, North American deal volume hit $1.04 trillion by June 27, while Asia accounted for $583.9 billion—more than doubling its contribution from a year earlier. Japan and China led the charge, with regional giants like Toyota and ADNOC initiating multibillion-dollar transactions that kept capital circulating within Asia-Pacific.

Trump’s Tariff Policy Initially Disrupts, Then Clears Path

The launch of President Trump’s aggressive tariff campaign—branded “Liberation Day” on April 2—initially suppressed deal activity by creating uncertainty. Many IPOs and cross-border transactions were delayed or shelved. However, the unexpected upside emerged as Trump’s administration took a more lenient stance on antitrust reviews, which investment bankers suggest may facilitate future megadeals exceeding $50 billion in size.

Market sentiment further improved as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached record highs, pushing down volatility. The VIX index’s decline signaled growing investor confidence. This stabilization enabled dealmakers to restart negotiations and revisit postponed IPO plans.

U.S. and Asia Anchor Activity as Europe Lags

While North America remains the largest M&A market, Asia gained over 11 percentage points in global deal share from 2024, now accounting for 27.3% of total volume. Noteworthy transactions include Toyota’s $33 billion supplier buyout and ADNOC’s $18.7 billion acquisition of Santos in Australia.

In contrast, Europe’s M&A momentum remained relatively sluggish, hampered by persistent inflation and weaker capital market performance. However, bankers expect the global upswing to eventually lift deal activity in the region, especially in sectors benefiting from clean energy subsidies and industrial digitization.

Bankers Signal Stronger H2: IPOs Return, Investors Reengage

Interviews with senior bankers from UBS, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Deutsche Bank highlight growing optimism for the second half of 2025. With monetary policy expectations stabilizing and institutional investors returning to equities, a window of opportunity for IPOs and leveraged buyouts is reopening.

“We’re seeing momentum rebuild,” said Jefferies vice chairman Philip Ross. “The number of new issuances and client mandates over the past three weeks is unlike anything we’ve seen since early 2022.”

Goldman Sachs noted that Asia-to-Asia deals are accelerating, while Deutsche Bank emphasized the resilience of European equities amid geopolitical shocks. In short, there is growing consensus that dealmaking could surpass pre-pandemic levels if macro risks remain contained.

Though the number of deals signed in H1 2025 (17,528) fell short of the 20,583 deals from the same period last year, the shift toward higher-value transactions signals a new phase in global dealmaking. With regulatory barriers easing in the U.S., confidence returning to Asian markets, and risk appetite rebounding among major institutional investors, the stage is set for a blockbuster second half of 2025—one potentially marked by megadeals that redefine global capital flows.

Source: Reuters

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Senate Republicans Face Clock and Conflict Over Trump Tax Bill

Senate Majority Leader John Thune is racing against time and party discord to secure enough votes for President Donald Trump’s massive tax and spending package before the self-imposed July 4 deadline. The bill, which includes $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and $1.2 trillion in spending cuts, has triggered a showdown between moderate and hardline Republicans.

At least eight GOP senators have raised serious concerns. Thune can afford to lose only three GOP votes in the 100-seat chamber, with Vice President JD Vance available to break a tie. With Senators Rand Paul and Thom Tillis likely voting “no,” the margin for negotiation is razor-thin. Tillis, facing backlash from Trump and announcing he won’t seek reelection, has become increasingly vocal in his opposition.

Competing Demands: Medicaid Cuts vs. Energy Incentives

The divide within the GOP centers on key ideological differences. Fiscal conservatives like Ron Johnson, Rick Scott, Mike Lee, and Cynthia Lummis are pressing for deeper Medicaid cuts and more aggressive deficit reduction. In contrast, moderates such as Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Tillis are defending Medicaid and renewable energy incentives that are vital to their home states.

According to a Congressional Budget Office estimate, the proposed Medicaid reductions could cause 11.8 million Americans to lose health coverage over the next decade. Murkowski and Tillis have also pushed to preserve solar and wind tax credits that drive local job growth, further complicating consensus.

Trump’s Political Pressure and Legislative Gamble

President Trump remains focused on swift passage, largely ignoring policy disputes in favor of demanding speed. He has taken to social media to attack dissenters, labeling Tillis a “talker and complainer” and hinting at primary challenges for those who resist his agenda. Trump’s insistence on action before Independence Day has set off a grueling amendment voting process beginning Monday morning that could last over 12 hours.

Despite not engaging deeply with the bill’s specifics, Trump’s public pressure has heightened the stakes for GOP lawmakers already juggling political survival, policy concerns, and party unity.

Public Skepticism and House Hurdles Ahead

Polls indicate Americans remain wary of the legislation. A Pew Research poll shows 49% oppose the bill, while only 29% support it, with 21% undecided—reflecting widespread unease about its impact on healthcare and the national debt, especially with the inclusion of a $5 trillion debt ceiling increase.

Even if Thune can broker a fragile Senate compromise, the bill’s future in the House remains uncertain. Speaker Mike Johnson must unify his caucus behind the Senate-passed version to avoid renegotiations that could derail the July 4 timeline and provoke Trump’s ire.

The Trump tax-and-spending bill represents not only a fiscal pivot but also a test of Republican cohesion under intense political and ideological pressure. As Thune attempts to steer the legislation through a minefield of competing demands, the GOP must reconcile its internal contradictions—or risk missing the deadline and weakening Trump’s economic agenda in a critical election year.

Source: Bloomberg

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Forex

Dollar Struggles Amid Fed Speculation and Trade Shifts

The greenback slipped to its lowest levels in nearly four years against the euro and sterling, and hit a more-than-decade low against the Swiss franc, driven by renewed optimism over U.S. trade progress and growing belief that the Federal Reserve will begin easing monetary policy sooner than previously thought.

This weakness follows dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week, who signaled that rate cuts were likely if inflation stays in check despite tariff-related risks. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 92.4% probability of a rate cut by September, a significant rise from just 70% the previous week.

Geopolitical and Political Pressure on the Dollar

Additional downward pressure came from President Donald Trump’s continued public criticism of Powell, including a suggestion that he would prefer Powell to resign before his term ends in May. Trump also reiterated his desire to slash interest rates to 1%, down from the current 4.25–4.5% range, and pledged to replace Powell with a more dovish Fed chair if re-elected.

The President’s tax-and-spend policy proposals—namely a massive $3.3 trillion fiscal stimulus package—have further spooked bond markets and raised concerns about the long-term sustainability of U.S. debt.

Currency Markets React to Shifting Sentiment

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, inched up slightly to 97.276 but remained close to a three-year low of 96.933. The euro eased to $1.1716 after touching $1.1754 on Friday—its strongest since September 2021. Sterling traded around $1.3709, near a peak last seen in late 2021.

The dollar also showed historic weakness against the Swiss franc, dipping last week to 0.7955, a level unseen since January 2015. Against the yen, the dollar remained steady at 144.58.

The Australian dollar, considered a risk-sensitive currency, gained marginally to $0.6537 and approached a 7.5-month high on expectations that commodity-linked currencies would benefit from stabilizing trade relations and rising risk appetite.

Trade Developments Influence Currency Outlook

Investor sentiment was buoyed by comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who confirmed progress in trade talks with China, including a resolution on critical rare earth mineral exports. He hinted that multiple trade deals could be finalized by Labor Day (September 1), even though Trump had initially set a July 9 deadline.

While some analysts remain skeptical about the timeline for concluding so many deals, signs of resolution in key disputes—such as with China—have improved global risk sentiment, which in turn has weighed on the traditionally defensive U.S. dollar.

Despite short-term bounces, the dollar remains under intense pressure from both domestic political dynamics and global economic rebalancing. The Fed’s growing dovish tilt, Trump’s policy volatility, and the fast-evolving trade landscape suggest further downside risks for the greenback—especially if upcoming payroll data or inflation reports reinforce the case for monetary easing.