Indonesia Exports Surge Ahead of Tariff Talk Deadline, Inflation Subdued

Forex

Economic

Summary:

Indonesia's exports surged in May ahead of a looming decision on threatened hefty US tariffs, data showed on Tuesday, while inflation remained low in June and analysts said there was room for the central bank to cut rates again to support the economy.

Exports rose 9.68% from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said, well above the median forecast of a 0.40% rise in a Reuters poll and outpacing a 4.14% rise in imports.

That saw the trade surplus in Southeast Asia's largest economy widen to US$4.3 billion (RM18.12 billion) in May, up from a five-year low of around US$160 million in April, as exporters wait for the July 9 deadline to complete tariff negotiations with the US.

"There is an effect of anticipation of the imposition of reciprocal tariffs from Trump, so it looks like exporters were frontloading," said Bank Mandiri economist Shahifa Assajjadiyyah.

Separate data showed the inflation rate was 1.87% in June, a touch stronger than expected but comfortably within Bank Indonesia's target range of 1.5% to 3.5%.

The central bank paused its easing cycle at a policy review last month, but said there was still room to cut rates given moderate inflation and the need to support economic activity.

Maybank Indonesia economist Myrdal Gunarto said the combination of inflation within the target range, a strong trade balance and a stable rupiah meant Bank Indonesia had room to start cutting rates again.

Like many other countries, Indonesia is in talks with Washington ahead of next week's deadline to avoid the US administration's threatened "reciprocal" tariffs.

Jakarta, facing a 32% tariff, has said it will ease import restrictions and rules on many goods and raw materials in a bid to make it easier to do business in the country.

Tuesday's data showed exports of crude and refined palm oil from January to May were 8.3 million tonne. Palm oil products and steel were among the key contributors to the rise in exports in May.

Indonesia's rice output from January to August is estimated at 24.97 million tonnes, up 14.09% compared to the same period last year, the bureau said.

Source: Theedgemarkets

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Commodity

China–U.S. Trade War

Global Supply Shock Rewrites Rare Earth Magnet Economics

China’s decision in April 2025 to tighten export controls on rare earth magnets—key components in electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, and electronics—has upended global supply chains. For years, non-Chinese producers struggled to compete due to China’s scale advantages, lower costs, and state support. But the new trade barriers have jolted automakers and electronics manufacturers into urgently sourcing magnets from outside China, even at steep premiums.

The impact was immediate. Rahim Suleman, CEO of Neo Performance Materials, which recently launched a magnet facility in Estonia, noted a surge in demand without needing to pitch for new business. “The phone is ringing off the hook,” he said, as clients scramble to secure non-Chinese supply in the face of rising geopolitical risk.

Premium Pricing Becomes the New Normal—for Now

Manufacturers once reluctant to absorb higher costs for magnets made outside China are now conceding. Industry sources report premiums of $10–$30 per kilogram for ex-China magnets—an increase that adds $20–$120 per EV depending on magnet volume. In Korea, customers of NovaTech are already paying 15–20% more for magnets produced in Vietnam. Germany’s Schaeffler and other unnamed automakers have also signed deals with Neo’s Estonia plant, according to company disclosures.

But such premiums are a double-edged sword. On one hand, they are essential to finance the emergence of ex-China production; on the other, they risk cutting into margins in industries like automotive manufacturing already battling price wars. As one European automaker put it, “We can’t absorb excessive premiums across all raw materials and still sell competitively on a global scale.”

Long Road Ahead to Challenge China's Dominance

While non-Chinese players are receiving more orders, their scale remains limited. China still accounts for around 90% of global permanent magnet supply. New facilities in Europe, the U.S., and Southeast Asia are only starting to ramp up, and it may take years—if not decades—to reach sufficient capacity and cost efficiency.

This imbalance creates a complex market dynamic: premiums must be high enough to sustain new investment but low enough to avoid demand destruction. Project Blue estimates that NdPr (neodymium-praseodymium oxide) prices must range between $75 and $105/kg to support global demand outside China. Australia’s Barrenjoey places the necessary price range even higher, between $120 and $180/kg to fund approximately 20 new mining and processing projects.

Yet current pricing for Chinese NdPr remains significantly lower—around $62/kg—posing a competitive challenge. One rare earth executive emphasized that “the cost of a one-month shutdown due to shortages dwarfs any premium we might pay,” reinforcing the causal logic driving firms toward supply chain diversification despite price shocks.

Crisis Accelerates Innovation and Regional Expansion

The supply crisis has also accelerated diversification efforts. NovaTech is investing 10 billion won in a new Vietnamese plant using locally processed rare earths. Britain’s Less Common Metals is exploring expansion into France. Meanwhile, demand-side innovations are surfacing: BMW and others are reducing or eliminating rare earth usage in select EV models.

However, analysts warn this isn’t a widespread solution. Rare earths remain critical to high-performance magnets and most electrified systems, and substitutes either underperform or come with other trade-offs.

Industry Struggles to Define Sustainable Premiums

The current surge in willingness to pay premiums reflects urgency, not long-term equilibrium. Neo’s Suleman cautions that if costs escalate too far, demand destruction becomes a real threat. “We need to be responsible,” he said, emphasizing the importance of collaborative pricing models that secure investment without overwhelming downstream customers.

Some automakers have accepted moderate premiums of 5–10% for sustainably sourced critical minerals, but wide consensus on what constitutes a “fair” premium has yet to emerge.

China’s export restrictions have reshaped the rare earth magnet market overnight, exposing global dependencies and triggering a race to diversify. While buyers are currently absorbing higher costs to ensure access, the industry faces a delicate balancing act: securing resilient supply chains without collapsing demand through excessive pricing. The long-term success of ex-China supply efforts will hinge on technological innovation, policy support, and pricing discipline across the value chain.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Manufacturing Activity Nears Growth Threshold Amid Order Book Rebound

Eurozone manufacturing activity in June 2025 signaled early signs of a recovery, as the region's HCOB Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) edged up to 49.5 from 49.4 in May, its highest in nearly two years. Though the reading still fell short of the 50-point mark—indicating ongoing contraction—the results underscore a significant shift: new orders neither fell nor grew, effectively ending a 37-month period of uninterrupted decline.

This stabilization in order flow marks a turning point for a sector that has struggled under the weight of weak external demand, persistent inflationary pressures, and sluggish industrial output. The causal relationship is clear—rising new orders typically precede broader output recovery, suggesting the current momentum may evolve into expansion territory in the second half of the year.

Output Slows but Remains Positive

Despite improved new order dynamics, the manufacturing output index slipped to 50.8 from 51.5, a three-month low, although still above the 50 expansion threshold. This moderation suggests that while order volumes have stabilized, firms remain cautious in scaling up production aggressively—likely due to lagging employment growth and regional economic divergence.

Manufacturers also continued shedding jobs, with the employment index staying below 50 for a second consecutive year. This disconnection between stabilizing demand and continued workforce reduction reflects firms’ cautious stance, possibly driven by high labor costs, automation shifts, or residual uncertainty about the durability of demand recovery.

Export Orders Improve and Delivery Times Lengthen—Early Signs of Demand Strength

Another promising indicator emerged as export orders ceased their downward trajectory for the first time since March 2022. While modest, this signals a potential revival in external demand, particularly relevant for economies such as Germany and the Netherlands with high export-dependency.

Longer delivery times—traditionally seen as negative—were interpreted positively in this context. Rather than reflecting supply-side bottlenecks, they now suggest improved demand flow, as orders stretch production and logistics schedules slightly.

Regional Performance Diverges Sharply

PMI data continued to show stark national disparities. Ireland led the bloc with a 53.7 reading—its highest in over three years—while Greece, Spain, and the Netherlands also posted expansionary figures. Germany, although still in contraction at 49.0, reached its strongest level in nearly three years, buoyed by optimism over its new government’s fiscal growth package.

By contrast, France, Italy, and Austria recorded steeper manufacturing declines, dragging down the overall bloc’s performance. These disparities highlight that the eurozone’s recovery is uneven, with export-oriented northern countries showing faster rebounds than their southern counterparts.

Business Optimism Strengthens Amid Cost Relief

Business confidence across the euro area improved markedly, reaching its highest level since February 2022. German manufacturers, in particular, were notably upbeat about future production prospects, reflecting faith in the policy direction and demand outlook.

Simultaneously, input costs continued their descent, with June marking the third consecutive month of falling purchasing prices. This deflationary trend in production inputs contributed to a further, albeit slight, decline in factory gate prices. The relationship is causal: lower input costs create pricing room for manufacturers, easing margin pressures and supporting competitiveness, particularly in export markets.

Implications for ECB Policy Path

The European Central Bank, which has been in an extended easing cycle, is now expected to conclude its interest rate cuts with one final reduction in September, according to a Reuters poll. The stabilization of the manufacturing sector could support the case for a pause after September, especially if inflation risks return or growth re-accelerates more quickly than expected.

June’s PMI data for the eurozone manufacturing sector signals cautious optimism. While activity remains technically in contraction, the end of the three-year decline in new orders marks a potential inflection point. If momentum in export demand, cost moderation, and German fiscal support continue, the sector could shift into growth territory in the coming months. However, employment weakness and regional disparities remain risks that could temper the recovery’s strength and breadth.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Michelle

Forex

Economic

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced its growth forecast for the Swiss economy to 1.3% for 2025, down from its previous projection of 1.7%.

In its latest report released on Tuesday, the IMF cited worsening geopolitical tensions and tariffs as factors negatively affecting economic performance in Switzerland.

The IMF also provided its first outlook for 2026, projecting Swiss economic growth of 1.2%. Both forecasts fall below Switzerland’s long-term average growth rate of 1.8%.

These figures have been adjusted to account for the impact of sporting events, which can distort economic data due to broadcast income received by Swiss-based organizations such as FIFA and the International Olympic Committee.

The IMF’s downward revisions follow similar forecast cuts by the Swiss government and the Swiss National Bank.

"With global headwinds, growth is projected to remain somewhat below potential in 2025-26," the IMF stated in its report.

Source: Investing

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

EU Seeks Strategic Balance Under Looming U.S. Tariff Regime

The European Union is navigating high-stakes trade negotiations with the United States as President Trump pushes for a sweeping 10% universal tariff on imports, alongside higher sector-specific levies. While the EU is prepared to accept the framework of a uniform tariff, it is urgently seeking exemptions or adjusted rates for critical sectors such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft. This negotiation comes under the shadow of a July 9 deadline, after which nearly all EU exports to the U.S. would face a 50% tariff absent a deal.

This approach reflects the EU’s pragmatic pivot toward damage control: while the bloc cannot prevent U.S. protectionism, it aims to mitigate the impact on industries that are export-intensive, innovation-driven, or highly integrated into transatlantic supply chains.

Automotive, Steel, and Aluminum Sectors at the Heart of Talks

Among the most contentious issues are the U.S. tariffs on European automobiles (25%) and steel and aluminum (50%). In 2024, the EU exported €52.8 billion worth of cars and parts to the U.S., and €24 billion in steel and aluminum, with Germany, France, and Italy as top contributors. These sectors are disproportionately exposed to any breakdown in trade negotiations.

The EU is asking Washington to offer quota-based relief and tiered exemptions to avoid sweeping damage to these key industries. There is a clear causal concern here: failing to secure exemptions would erode the global competitiveness of EU exporters and amplify the political and economic cost of Trump's “America First” tariff doctrine.

Negotiation Strategy Focuses on Interim Compromise

With time running short, the European Commission hopes to secure an interim agreement that would allow negotiations to continue beyond the deadline. This transitional accord would ideally preserve space for resolving more complex tariff and non-tariff barriers and lay the groundwork for strategic cooperation in areas such as artificial intelligence, liquefied natural gas, and economic security.

EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic is set to join the Brussels team in Washington this week, signaling the urgency of direct high-level engagement. While the Commission has not disclosed the full details of the American offer, internal discussions among member states suggest that Brussels is considering a range of outcomes, from a deal with “acceptable asymmetry” to full-scale retaliation should talks collapse.

Markets React to Progress, But Asymmetry Remains a Concern

Markets responded swiftly to early news of EU acceptance. The S&P 500 briefly fell before rebounding, while the Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.6%. This suggests investors are cautiously optimistic that a disruptive tariff war might be avoided. ING strategist Vincent Juvyns noted that markets are interpreting the dialogue through a “glass-half-full” lens.

Still, the EU’s willingness to accept an imbalanced deal—favoring the U.S. in aggregate—signals not just diplomatic compromise but also concern about the consequences of failed negotiations. The EU estimates that current U.S. tariffs affect €380 billion worth of European exports, or around 70% of total goods shipped to the U.S. market.

Contingency Planning: The EU’s Retaliatory Arsenal

Even as it negotiates in good faith, the EU is preparing a comprehensive countermeasure package should Trump walk away. Already approved are tariffs on €21 billion worth of U.S. goods, strategically targeting swing states and political constituencies, including agricultural products and motorcycles.

Additionally, Brussels has drawn up a second list of retaliatory tariffs worth €95 billion, which could affect U.S. exports like Boeing aircraft, bourbon, and U.S.-made automobiles. Beyond tariffs, the EU is also exploring export controls, public procurement exclusions, and leveraging areas where the U.S. depends on EU technologies or inputs.

The EU’s conditional acceptance of Trump’s universal tariff proposal marks a shift toward strategic accommodation, yet the negotiation outcome remains finely balanced. With critical sectors hanging in the balance and retaliation tools already locked and loaded, the coming days will define whether the transatlantic relationship moves toward compromise or conflict. Any resolution—interim or final—will shape trade flows, political alliances, and global supply chains far beyond the July 9 deadline.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Glendon

Economic

Forex

The U.S. dollar retreated further Tuesday, falling to multi-year lows on growing expectations of interest rate cuts, while President Donald Trump’s spending bill stoked fiscal worries.

At 04:25 ET (08:25 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, dropped 0.2% to 96.275, dropping to its lowest level since February 2022.

Dollar under pressure

The U.S. currency has fallen to multi-year lows, pressured by increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the coming months, optimism of upcoming trade deals, as well as political sparring over a sweeping tax and spending cut bill.

“The dollar continues to grind lower in a move probably now best categorised as an orderly dollar bear trend. After a structurally driven decline of the dollar in April, its losses over the last month or so have become cyclical, as earlier Fed easing becomes priced,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

Expectations of easing from the U.S. central bank are growing, particularly as U.S. President Donald Trump continues to urge the Fed to ease monetary policy, sending Fed Chair Jerome Powell a list of central bank interest rates around the world adorned with handwritten commentary saying the U.S. rate should be between Japan’s 0.5% and Denmark’s 1.75%.

Trump’s constant tirade against the Fed and Powell has fuelled investor worries about the central bank’s independence and its credibility, weighing on the dollar.

Investors are also grappling with uncertainty over the U.S. Senate’s efforts to pass Trump’s tax-cut and spending bill, which faces internal party divisions over its projected $3.3 trillion addition to the national debt.

“Back to the short term, the dollar has come quite far already and this bear trend probably needs feeding with some macro news. That news comes today in the form of the June ISM manufacturing release and the JOLTS data,” ING added.

Euro just off four-year high

In Europe, EUR/USD slipped 0.1% to 1.1781, just below its previously hit four-year high of 1.1808.

The single currency surged 13.8% in the January-June period, its strongest-ever first half performance, LSEG data showed.

Traders are waiting for the latest preliminary inflation data from the eurozone, which is expected to have hit 2% in the year to June, which would be in line with the European Central Bank’s target.

Earlier this month, the ECB cut rates for the eighth time in a year but indicated it would likely pause at its next meeting, citing uncertainty linked to trade tensions with the United States.

Manufacturing purchasing managers indexes data for France, Germany, and eurozone for June are also due for release later in the session, and investors will also study comments from central bank chiefs at the European Central Bank forum in Sintra, Portugal.

GBP/USD gained 0.3% to 1.3764, not far from the three-and-a-half-year high it touched last week.

British house prices fell by 0.8% in June, a sharper fall than forecast and the biggest monthly decline in more than two years, data from mortgage lender Nationwide showed on Tuesday.

“Sterling could also face some political risk as Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a backbench revolt over welfare reforms. The government has already been forced to make about £4bn of concessions to get the bill through – although its passage is not guaranteed. Any failure to get the bill through could hit sterling and gilts on the view that further concessions will have to be made at a time when there is no fiscal headroom,” ING added.

Japanese yen helped by safe-haven demand

In Asia, USD/JPY traded 0.7% lower to 143.06, with the Japanese currency benefitting from safe-haven demand after President Trump lashed out against Tokyo for alleged unwillingness to buy American-grown rice, while also hinting at ending trade talks with Tokyo.

Japanese officials signaled on Tuesday that they were still pushing for a tariff agreement with the U.S., but would not compromise the country’s agricultural industry for a deal.

USD/CNY slipped marginally lower to 7.1624, close to its strongest level since November following some upbeat purchasing managers index data this week.

Caixin PMI data on Tuesday showed China’s manufacturing sector rose back into expansion territory in June, as local manufacturers benefited from Washington and Beijing agreeing to temporarily slash their respective trade tariffs.

Source: Investing

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Michelle

Political

The Prime Minister of Thailand, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, was suspended by the country's constitutional court on Tuesday pending an investigation into a leaked phone call with a senior Cambodian politician.

The judges voted 7 to 2 to suspend the 38-year-old prime minister after accepting a petition from 36 senators accusing her of dishonesty and a breach of ethical standards.

Why has Thailand's prime minister been suspended?

Paetongtarn has faced growing dissatisfaction over her handling of a border dispute with neighboring Cambodia, which saw a Cambodian soldier killed in a violent clash in May.

During a leaked June 15 phone call with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen, Paetongtarn appeared to criticize an outspoken Thai army commander — considered a red line in a country where the military has significant clout.

Despite apologizing and insisting that her remarks were a negotiating tactic, thousands of conservative, nationalist-leaning protesters rallied in central Bangkok on Saturday to demand the prime minister's resignation.

"I only thought about what to do to avoid troubles, what to do to avoid armed confrontation, for the soldiers not to suffer any loss," she said. "I wouldn't be able to accept it if I said something with the other leader that could lead to negative consequences."

Paetongtarn first has 15 days in which to provide evidence to the constitutional court to support her defense, in which time Deputy Prime Minister Suriya Juangroongruangkit is expected to become acting prime minister.

"Government work doesn't stop, there is no problem," Tourism Minister and Pheu Thai Party Secretary-General Sorawong Thienthong told the Reuters news agency. "Suriya will become caretaker prime minister."

Thai government under pressure

However, the government has been left with only a wafer-thin majority after Paetongtarn's leaked call saw a key party abandon her coalition and threaten a no-confidence vote.

Earlier on Tuesday, King Maha Vajiralongkorn endorsed cabinet reshuffle which should have seen Paetongtarn assume the position of culture minister in addition to prime minister. But it's unclear if she will be able to be sworn into the role during her suspension.

She said on Monday that she would accept and follow the process but she didn't want to see her work interrupted.

It's not the first time that Paetongtarn has faced allegations over ethics breaches; she is currently also under investigation by Thailand's Office of the National Anti-Corruption Commission in a separate case.

The Constitutional Court last year removed her predecessor over a breach of ethics while her father, the influential former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, was deposed in a military coup in 2006.

Also on Tuesday, a spokeswoman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry insisted that would not comment on an "internal" Thai affair but said: "As a friendly neighbor, we hope that Thailand will maintain stability and development."