IMF Chief Warns ‘Uncertainty Is the New Normal’ in Global Economy

Economic

Summary:

Kristalina Georgieva outlines mounting risks to economic stability before fund’s annual meetings next week

The head of the International Monetary Fund has issued a stark warning about the mounting risks facing the global economy, saying: “Buckle up: uncertainty is the new normal.”

As finance ministers and central bankers prepare to meet in Washington for the IMF’s annual meetings next week, its managing director, Kristalina Georgieva said the world economy had shown surprising resilience in the face of Donald Trump’s trade war.

The US is now expected to avoid recession, despite the imposition of historic tariffs on many of its trading partners, and the global economy is forecast to slow “only slightly this year and next”, she said.

But Georgieva pointed to growing signs of strain, including the record gold price – which topped $4,000 an ounce on Wednesday, signalling anxiety among investors – and exceptionally high valuations for US stocks.

“Before anyone heaves a big sigh of relief, please hear this: global resilience has not yet been fully tested. And there are worrying signs the test may come,” she told an audience at the Milken Institute in Washington.

Georgieva suggested the full economic impact of US tariffs “is yet to unfold”, after many firms front loaded exports earlier this year to dodge the levies. “Buckle up: uncertainty is the new normal and it is here to stay,” she warned.

In the last update of its World Economic Outlook in July, the IMF forecast global GDP growth of 3% for this year – a modest slowdown from 3.3% in 2024. It will update its projections at next week’s meetings.

While financial markets have broadly remained calm in the face of policy turmoil, she said this was “masking but not arresting some softening trends”, and warned: “History tells us this sentiment can turn abruptly.”

Share prices in the US have surged to fresh highs in recent weeks, driven by rocketing valuations for the “magnificent seven” tech firms, including chip maker Nvidia and Elon Musk’s electric vehicle-maker Tesla.

Optimism about future productivity gains from generative AI have continued to underpin confidence on Wall Street, despite signs of a slowdown elsewhere, including in the US jobs market.

Drawing a parallel with the dotcom bubble at the turn of the millennium, Georgieva said; “Today’s valuations are heading toward levels we saw during the bullishness about the internet 25 years ago.

“If a sharp correction were to occur, tighter financial conditions could drag down world growth, expose vulnerabilities, and make life especially tough for developing countries.”

The IMF is urging policymakers in large economies to take action to reduce the risks of instability by addressing global imbalances – including calling on the US to tackle its spiralling public sector deficit.

Trump’s tax cuts, targeted at higher earners, are expected to add more than $3tn to US public debt over the next decade – though the US president has hailed tariff revenues as a way of improving the nation’s finances.

Georgieva also called on Beijing to carry out reforms aimed at kickstarting growth and boosting household spending, saying that in China, “private savings are chronically high”.

The Bulgarian economist also offered what she called “tough love”, to “my beloved native Europe”, urging the EU to appoint a “single market tsar”, to accelerate the integration of markets.

“Enough lofty rhetoric on how to lift competitiveness – you know what must be done. It is time for action,” she said. “Remove border frictions in the labour market, goods and services trade, energy and finance. Build a single European financial system. Build an energy union. Complete your project.”

She also highlighted growing public frustration at the economic status quo in some countries, warning: “Many people in many places – especially the young – are taking their disappointment to the streets: from Lima to Rabat, from Paris to Nairobi, and from Kathmandu to Jakarta, all are demanding better opportunity.”

Source: Theguardian

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Michelle

Economic

Commodity

(Oct 9): Copper hit a 16-month high as it climbed toward US$11,000 per metric ton on Thursday, with investors in top metals consumer China returning from a week-long holiday, and concerns over supply from major mines lingering.

Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange CMCU3 was up 1.9% at US$10,875 per metric ton in official open outcry trading. It touched a session peak of US$10,910.50, the highest since May 2024 when the metal struck a record of US$11,104.50.

While LME copper is rising, the Yangshan copper premium SMM-CUYP-CN, an indicator of what what Chinese buyers will pay above the LME price for copper still outside the country, has fallen to US$49 a ton from US$58 a month ago. This shows that copper's rise is a "money-led rally," Marex said in a note.

Dovish minutes from the US Federal Reserve were also supporting prices, the brokerage added.

Total copper stocks in LME warehousing system MCUSTX-TOTAL are at 139,475 tons, the lowest since late July, while the discount for the cash copper contract against the three-month contract CMCU0-3 narrowed to US$5.80 per ton, from US$29.50 on Wednesday, indicating tighter near-term availability.

The International Copper Study Group lowered its 2025 market surplus estimate to 178,000 tons from 289,000 tons due to disruptions at major mines, including Grasberg in Indonesia, which has been shut for a month.

"If there's any expectation that Grasberg is coming back faster than people have been told over the past couple of weeks, copper would take a hit," Panmure Liberum analyst Tom Price said.

Copper's strength took the base metals complex higher. Aluminium CMAL3 rose 1% to US$2,780, having earlier touched US$2,793, also the highest since May 2024. Marex positioning estimates show the largest speculative long in aluminium since June 2024.

Zinc CMZN3 climbed 1.2% to US$3,042, nickel CMNI3 gained 0.7% to US$15,460, lead CMPB3 added 0.8% to US$2,018.50, and tin CMSN3 jumped 1.3% to US$36,880.

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Source: Theedgemarkets

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Adam

Commodity

Market Overview

Gold held firm near record territory as expectations for multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts continued to underpin sentiment. Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting revealed that most policymakers agreed further easing may be warranted to offset labor-market risks and sluggish economic momentum.

The CME FedWatch Tool showed a 93% probability of a quarter-point cut in October and a 79% chance of another in December, signaling strong market confidence that the U.S. central bank will prioritize growth over inflation control.

This dovish outlook has weakened the U.S. Dollar Index, which slipped for a third consecutive session, lending further support to non-yielding assets like gold.

Silver Benefits from Industrial and Monetary Tailwinds

Silver extended its rally, supported by both safe-haven and industrial demand. The metal’s dual role has gained renewed importance as Fed easing expectations coincide with robust consumption in the solar and electronics sectors.

According to the Silver Institute, global silver demand is projected to rise by around 2% in 2025, led by photovoltaic applications and investment inflows into exchange-traded products.

A weaker dollar has also improved buying appetite from Asia and Europe, where physical premiums remain elevated. Analysts note that silver’s strong correlation with gold has helped sustain its upward trajectory, even as speculative traders have trimmed their positions following recent gains.

Market Outlook

With U.S. government operations partially shuttered and macro data delayed, traders are now awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming remarks for confirmation on the pace of policy easing.

While the near-term trend suggests consolidation, the broader outlook for both gold and silver remains constructive, anchored by lower rate expectations and persistent global uncertainty.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold (XAU/USD) is expected to trade between $3,980–$4,100, with strong support near $4,000. Silver (XAG/USD) may extend gains toward $50.10, while holding above key support at $48.70.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold – Chart

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $4,032, consolidating after reaching a recent high around $4,057. The metal remains inside a rising channel, supported by the 50-EMA at $3,919, which continues to act as dynamic trend support. The RSI near 67 indicates momentum is cooling but still in bullish territory.

A key demand zone lies between $4,005–$3,980, where previous resistance now serves as support. If buyers defend this level, gold could retest $4,057, with a breakout exposing $4,104–$4,153 next.

A drop below $3,980 would weaken the uptrend and signal a potential pullback toward $3,940. Overall, the bias remains upward while gold trades above its channel midpoint.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver – Chart

Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $49.13, staying firm within its upward channel as buyers defend the mid-range support near $48.68. The 50-EMA at $47.52 continues to underpin the bullish structure, while the RSI near 60 signals steady but controlled momentum.

Price action shows higher lows since mid-September, a hallmark of sustained accumulation. A close above $49.49 could confirm renewed upside toward $50.16 and the upper channel resistance at $50.90.

However, failure to hold above $48.70 may invite a short-term correction toward $47.70. Overall, silver maintains a bullish bias as long as it stays within the rising channel and above the $47.50 support base.

Source: fxempire

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Glendon

Economic

Forex

Euro came under renewed selling pressure today, particularly in crosses, as investors reacted nervously to deepening political uncertainty in France. President Emmanuel Macron’s search for a new prime minister dominated headlines. His office confirmed that he would appoint a replacement “within 48 hours,” after outgoing Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu spent two days in futile talks to resolve what has become France’s worst political crisis in decades. Macron’s next pick would be his sixth prime minister in less than two years, highlighting the instability that has plagued his administration.

The abrupt resignation of Lecornu—after just 27 days in office—surprised markets, which had largely assumed that the next step in France’s political drama would be a snap parliamentary election. Instead, the prospect of yet another reshuffle with no clear end to the legislative gridlock has rekindled investor anxiety about France’s fiscal direction and reform capacity.

Meanwhile the ECB’s September meeting accounts, released overnight, reaffirmed that the central bank is firmly on hold and in no rush to adjust interest rates. Importantly, the minutes also made clear that “moderate fluctuations of inflation around the target” should not prompt a policy adjustment — effectively confirming that the ECB sees little reason to move in the near term. The reiteration of patience was already priced in by markets, and provided no meaningful support to the Euro, which continues to trade on political headlines rather than monetary expectations.

Elsewhere, currency market performance this week remains broadly consistent. Yen continues to lead losses, pressured by risk-on sentiment and doubts over further BoJ tightening. The Euro ranks second worst, with the Kiwi close behind following the RBNZ’s dovish 50bps cut. In contrast, Aussie and Loonie remain top performers. Dollar holds firm in the upper tier. Sterling and the Swiss Franc are trading mixed in the middle.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.18%. DAX is up 0.53%. CAC is up 0.50%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.016 at 4.737. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.01 at 2.692. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 1.77%. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.29%. China Shanghai SSE rose 1.32%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.35%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.007 to 1.697.

ECB minutes show comfort with current policy, high value in waiting

Minutes of the ECB’s September 10–11 meeting revealed broad agreement among policymakers that there was “no immediate pressure” to adjust interest rates. Officials noted that recent data confirmed inflation is “in a good place” while the domestic economy remains “resilient,” risks to growth now seen as “more balanced.”

The ECB recognized that the environment remains more uncertain than usual. The situation was likely to “change materially at some point” but the timing and direction were still unclear. The minutes noted the “high option value” of waiting for more evidence before altering policy, given two-sided inflation risks and the potential for unexpected shocks. The current rate level was described as “sufficiently robust” to manage a range of outcomes.

It also stressed that monetary policy should not be recalibrated for “moderate fluctuations of inflation around the target,” but only when a “significant deviation” is expected over the medium term. Though, while large, sustained deviations from target—like those seen over the past decade—are rare, monetary policy will still be ready to deliver “cyclical responses” to demand shocks.

BoE’s Mann: Inflation scarring still weighing on consumption, justifies policy restraint for longer

BoE policymaker Catherine Mann cautioned in a speech today that monetary policy must remain restrictive despite signs of weak consumption, arguing that high inflation has scarred UK consumers and continues to suppress spending.

“If the consumption gap was my only concern, reducing the restrictiveness of monetary policy would be appropriate,” she said. “However, in light of elevated inflation and expectations, maintaining restrictiveness for longer would be appropriate.”

Mann said the Bank’s analysis points to two drivers of the consumption gap: first, inflation and consumer scarring, and second, the channels through which monetary policy affects consumption.

The former, she explained, is a legacy of the rapid price surge that eroded purchasing power and altered household behavior. “High inflation itself is behind income uncertainty and weak consumption growth,” she said. “Monetary policy needs to continue to focus on reducing inflation” so households can return to a sustainable spending pattern.

For the second, she emphasized that higher rates have already exerted a material drag on demand, and the tightening effect is already waning. “Monetary policy has indeed loosened,” Mann said, adding that its impact on consumption has peaked.

EUR/AUD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7612; (P) 1.7667; (R1) 1.7703;

EUR/AUD’s break of 1.7588 support confirms resumption of the fall from 1.8155. Such decline is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.8554 high. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 100% projection of 1.8155 to 1.7588 from 1.7929 at 1.7362. On the upside, above 1.7672 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Uptrend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

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Samantha Luan

Commodity

Forex

Economic

The broad mood in the oil market remains bearish, although there are discrepancies as to how gloomy crude’s prospects are, according to Citigroup Inc., summarizing views from clients in North America and Europe.“Conviction differs on the depth of downside,” analysts including Francesco Martoccia said in a note. “Some clients doubt that a price floor at $60 a barrel for Brent crude oil would be enough to induce a supply-and-demand reaction to balance a global liquids market generally seen heading for a surplus.”

Oil prices have shed more than 10% this year, with global benchmark Brent posting back-to-back monthly losses in August and September. The weakness has been driven largely by expectations that supplies will run ahead of demand as OPEC+ loosens output curbs and rival drillers also step up production. Still, stockpiling by China has acted to support the market, with inventory builds so far seen concentrated away from the market’s main pricing centers.

“Other clients expect a more moderate, orderly price correction, arguing that projected stock builds could continue to accumulate outside of key pricing hubs, certainly ex-Cushing,” the analysts said, referring to the storage hub in Oklahoma that’s the physical delivery point for West Texas Intermediate.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies endorsed another quota hike last weekend, although the increment — 137,000 barrels a day for November’s production — was smaller than some of the sums that had been reported in the run-up to the gathering.

“Today’s slower non-OPEC+ growth and greater OPEC+ optionality, along with heightened geopolitical risks looming on large producers” such as Russia and Iran, could temper the pace of price adjustment, the analysts said.Brent futures — which tumbled 8% last week ahead of the OPEC+ supply decision — traded slightly lower at $65.80 a barrel on Thursday.“Within the energy complex, consensus sees fundamentals turning increasingly bearish on both crude oil and natural gas, but geopolitical risks make it hard to short these markets in size,” the analysts said.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Adam

Commodity

Market Overview

WTI crude oil steadied above $62.60 per barrel on Thursday, fluctuating within a tight range as easing geopolitical tensions tempered market volatility. Despite a second weekly rise in U.S. crude inventories, total stockpiles remain near seasonal lows, signaling resilient underlying demand.

The EIA reported refined product inventories falling and total petroleum products supplied climbing to 21.99 million barrels per day, the highest since December 2022.

Traders say the supply-demand balance remains finely poised, with risk sentiment improving but uncertainty over global energy flows keeping price gains limited. Brent crude hovered near $66.30, reflecting cautious optimism in global oil markets.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Builds Base Above $62 as Buyers Regain Control_1

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

Natural Gas futures are trading near $3.31, easing after a sharp drop from last week’s high around $3.52. On the 4-hour chart, the price has slipped below the short-term ascending channel, signaling waning bullish momentum. The 50-EMA ($3.36) and 200-EMA ($3.33) now act as immediate resistance, while the next support rests near $3.25 and $3.18.

Momentum has cooled, with the RSI near 40, suggesting limited buying strength but no clear oversold signal yet.

A rebound above $3.37 could restore upward momentum toward $3.52, while continued rejection below $3.30 risks a deeper correction toward $3.16. Overall, the bias remains neutral-to-bearish in the short term.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

WTI Crude Oil is trading near $62.70, showing mild recovery after bouncing from the $61.80 support zone. On the 4-hour chart, price is testing resistance at the 32.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 50-EMA at $62.27, while the 200-EMA at $63.19 remains a key ceiling for further upside.

The short-term trend has turned cautiously bullish, supported by a rising trendline from the $60.40 low. A break above $63.20 could open the path toward $64.10 and $65.10, while a drop below $61.80 risks a pullback toward $60.40.

The RSI near 58 signals improving momentum but not yet overbought conditions, suggesting prices may consolidate before attempting another push higher.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart

Brent Crude Oil is trading around $66.34, extending gains after rebounding from key support near $65.50. On the 4-hour chart, price action remains confined within a rising channel, signaling a gradual recovery phase following the recent selloff.

The 50-EMA at $66.00 and 200-EMA at $66.86 are converging, forming a short-term decision zone. A sustained break above $66.90 could drive prices toward $67.64 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and later $68.30, while immediate support lies near $65.50–$64.80.

The RSI near 58 shows improving momentum, confirming that buyers are regaining control without entering overbought territory. As long as Brent holds above $65.50, the broader bias stays constructive, with dips likely to attract fresh buying interest.

Source: fxempire

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Golden Gleam

Commodity

Technical Analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) has continued shining brightly this week, crossing above the closely watched $4,000/oz level for the for first time ever.

Recent buying of the precious metal has been fueled by investor anxiety about the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, economic uncertainty, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month.

Spot gold prices, which were little changed at around $4,035 per ounce in recent trading, have surged 54% since the start of the year, with broader gains supported by central bank buying, a loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar and a range of geopolitical issues.

Below, we break down the technicals on gold’s chart and point out critical price levels worth watching out for.

Strong Uptrend Continues

After breaking out from a narrow trading range in early September, gold’s price has continued to trend sharply higher with only several minor retracements since that time.

The rally has coincided with the relative strength index remaining embedded in overbought territory to confirm bullish price momentum. However, the indicator recently climbed above 85, signaling extremely stretched conditions in the commodity that could lead to near-term profit-taking dips.

The average directional index indicator, which measures the strength of an asset’s trend, sits over 50, highlighting gold’s strong uptrend.

Let’s use technical analysis to forecast a potential bullish target worth watching and also identify critical support levels to monitor during retracements.

Bullish Measured Move Target

Investors can project a bullish target in the yellow metal by using the measured move technique, also known by chart watchers as the measuring principle.

When applying the study to gold’s chart, we calculate the commodity's strong uptrend from February to April in dollars and add that amount to the recent trading range’s top trendline. This forecasts a target of $4,160 ($710 + $3,450), implying 3% upside from current trading levels.

We selected this earlier move as it also followed a narrow rangebound phase, providing clues as to how high gold’s price may go if a similar trend replicates.

Critical Support Levels to Monitor

An initial pullback could see the precious metal test the $3,700 level. This location may provide support near the top of a brief consolidation period on the chart in early to mid-September.

Bullion bulls’ failure to defend this critical level may trigger a fall to around $3,450. Investors could look to accumulate in this region near last month’s trading range breakout point, which may flip from an area of prior resistance to future support.

A more-significant drop could see gold revisit lower support near $3,250, currently just above the rising 200-day moving average. The commodity would likely attract buying interest at this level near multiple troughs on the chart between May and July that form the trading range’s lower trendline.