Gold Uptrend Intact, But Due For Correction Before Topping $4,000 In 2026

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

Gold's stellar rally to successive record highs shows every sign of continuing for the rest of the year, but a healthy correction is on the cards before breaching the $4,000 per ounce milestone in 2026...

Strong tailwinds such as expectations for monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, lingering geopolitical tensions, worries over the Federal Reserve's independence, and strong central bank purchases have prompted investors to flock to the precious metal.

"The long-term gold bull run looks intact, as demand, particularly from central banks and ETFs, continues to rise at a faster pace," Renisha Chainani, head of research at Mumbai-based refiner Augmont said, on the sidelines of the India Gold Conference in New Delhi.

"But gold is currently in overbought territory and may see a 5-6% correction in the short term, before consolidating and rising again to reach new highs above $4,200 in 2026," she said.

Spot gold was trading around $3,680 per ounce on Tuesday after hitting a record $3,689.27 earlier in the session, having gained about 40% so far this year, following a 27% jump in 2024.

Nearly all industry participants at the conference were expecting gold's bull run to continue into 2026 on a reduction in U.S. interest rates, strong investment demand and geo-political risks.

"Analysts have been hedging prices to reach $4,000 in 2026. But it's really difficult to say, because every projection that we've looked at the price has gone to that level much faster than we expected," said Nicholas Frappell, global head of institutional markets at ABC Refinery.

The U.S. central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates at the end of their monetary policy meeting on September 17. Trump has been pushing the Fed to cut rates and has repeatedly criticised Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for acting too slowly.

Gold, traditionally known as a favoured hedge against geopolitical and economic risks, also thrives in a low-interest rate environment.

"Gold prices are in uncharted territory, having not spent too much time in the $3,400's and $3,500's," said Philip Newman, managing director at consultancy Metals Focus, adding the firm expects prices to climb to around $3,800 at the end of the year.

"We could see a potential correction ahead after this price rally, but we also see that as a buying opportunity for investors who are waiting on the sidelines to get into the market. We could see gold prices scale above $4,000 in 2026."

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Economic

Investor Optimism Drives Market Gains Ahead of Fed Rate Cut

On September 15, 2025, stock markets across Europe and the U.S. saw broad gains, fueled by investor optimism ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s anticipated interest rate cut. The mood was further uplifted by news of a framework agreement between the U.S. and China regarding the TikTok platform, which is set to be finalized by Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping on September 19.

In the U.S., the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both reached new record highs, closing at 6,615.28 points (+0.5%) and 22,348.75 points (+0.9%), respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also saw a modest increase of 0.1%, closing at 45,883.45 points.

Positive Sentiment from Economic Data and Fed Expectations

Global stock markets have enjoyed a robust rally in recent weeks, buoyed by a series of U.S. labor and inflation data that have provided the Federal Reserve with room to resume interest rate cuts. The labor market continues to show signs of weakness, while inflation has remained more subdued than feared following President Trump’s trade wars.

The Fed is widely expected to lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points, though some observers predict the reduction could be as high as 50 basis points. Investor sentiment has been supported by hopes that the Fed will continue its dovish stance, with signals for additional rate cuts in the coming months.

Optimism in European Markets

European stock markets also saw gains, with the CAC 40 in Paris rising by 0.9% to 7,896.93 points and the DAX in Frankfurt increasing by 0.2% to 23,748.86 points. However, the FTSE 100 in London was slightly down, falling less than 0.1% to 9,277.03 points. The positive momentum in Europe reflects broader market confidence driven by expectations of continued accommodative monetary policy from central banks.

Another factor boosting market sentiment was the announcement of a framework agreement between the U.S. and China regarding TikTok. The agreement marks a rare breakthrough in the long-running negotiations between the two countries and has further eased trade tensions. As the deal heads toward finalization, it is seen as a positive sign for risk sentiment, especially in global markets that have been concerned about U.S.-China relations.

Local Markets React to Positive Global Trends

In Vietnam, local stock indices mirrored the positive global trend. The VN-Index rose by 17.64 points (1.06%) to close at 1,684.90 points, while the HNX-Index increased by 4.18 points (1.51%) to reach 280.69 points. This reflects growing investor confidence, fueled by the global optimism surrounding monetary easing and geopolitical developments.

The optimism surrounding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate cut, coupled with a breakthrough in U.S.-China relations over TikTok, has led to strong performances in global stock markets. Investors are hopeful that these factors will provide continued economic support in the coming months, while local markets like Vietnam also experienced positive movements, aligning with the global bullish sentiment.

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Economic

China’s Private Investment Maintains Strong Growth Amid Challenges

China's economy has continued to demonstrate solid growth in August 2025, driven by resilient private sector investments. According to Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), private investment remains strong, with businesses adapting flexibly to external challenges and expanding their market presence.

Despite facing global uncertainties, private enterprises have made substantial strides in emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, solar products, and lithium batteries. Furthermore, private companies are actively planning investments in future technologies like artificial intelligence and robotics. These efforts are expected to further expand the growth potential for private investments in China.

Private Enterprises Driving Technological and Green Innovations

Private companies in China have become a key force in driving technological progress, especially in high-tech sectors. Since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), private companies have accounted for more than 92% of China's high-tech enterprises, underscoring their crucial role in shaping the country’s innovation landscape.

Additionally, private businesses have shown remarkable resilience in overcoming operational difficulties. They have adapted to changing market conditions while maintaining production stability, showcasing both recovery capacity and creative ability. The government's policy support has played a key role in facilitating the growth of private investments, with initiatives aimed at improving investment conditions, market access, and financial support.

Government Policies Support Private Investment Growth

The official implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law has sent a strong signal of support for the private sector’s development. Various governmental departments are actively improving investment mechanisms, further optimizing market access, and strengthening support for private businesses in areas such as capital and resources.

Despite the pressures faced by some private enterprises, China's private sector remains a strong driver of economic growth, with a promising outlook for continued expansion. As of the latest data from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the private sector continues to play a significant role in advancing China's technological progress.

Entrepreneurship on the Rise: Record Number of Private Businesses Established

Data from China’s State Administration for Market Regulation highlights the ongoing vibrancy in the private business sector. Around 4.35 million new private businesses were registered in the first half of the year, marking a 4.6% increase compared to the same period last year. Additionally, approximately 33,000 new foreign-funded companies were established, reflecting strong foreign interest in the Chinese market.

In total, 13.28 million new companies were registered across China during the first half of the year, reflecting a dynamic and thriving entrepreneurial ecosystem. This continued growth in private investment and entrepreneurship indicates the resilience and potential of China’s economy, particularly within the private sector.

China’s private sector remains a powerful engine for technological and economic advancement, despite the challenges posed by both domestic and global factors. The ongoing strong growth in private investment, particularly in green and high-tech industries, positions China’s economy for continued resilience and innovation. With continued government support and a favorable investment environment, the future of private investment in China looks promising, contributing to the broader economic recovery and transformation.

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Economic

Fed’s First Rate Cut of 2025 and Market Expectations

The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to announce its first interest rate cut of 2025 during its meeting this Wednesday, likely reducing rates by 25 basis points. This would mark the first easing of monetary policy since December, signaling a shift from the aggressive rate hikes of the past few years.

However, the main concern among investors is whether this rate cut will be an isolated action or the start of a series of reductions. The Fed is navigating a complex economic landscape, where a weakening labor market and persistent inflationary pressures make future decisions particularly challenging.

The Role of the Fed’s “Dot Plot” and Political Pressures

An important indicator of the Fed’s future policy trajectory will be the updated "dot plot" a quarterly chart showing the interest rate expectations of Fed officials. The June 2025 dot plot showed a consensus for two rate cuts in the year, but with the current economic uncertainty, further cuts are still a subject of debate.

The political landscape also adds another layer of complexity. President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for acting too late on rate cuts and has been pushing for a more dovish approach. He is also working to install his economic advisor, Stephen Miran, as a Fed governor, further influencing the central bank’s policy direction.

Diverging Views: Fed’s Caution vs. Wall Street's Expectations

Former Fed officials like Loretta Mester remain cautious, arguing that a single 25 basis point cut is unlikely to resolve the political pressure on the Fed. Mester believes that while a modest cut could help ease labor market pressures, it won’t signal a sustained easing cycle.

In contrast, Wall Street experts are more optimistic. Morgan Stanley predicts that the Fed will continue cutting rates in subsequent meetings in October and December, ultimately reducing the target rate to 3.5% by January 2026. Other economists, such as Luke Tilley from Wilmington Trust, forecast three consecutive cuts over the next three meetings, driven by weakening labor market data.

Inflation and Employment Data Impacting Fed’s Decision

Despite the push for easing, inflation remains a persistent concern. The latest data shows that inflation is stuck around 3%, which is above the Fed’s target. Additionally, the labor market is showing signs of weakness. In August, the U.S. economy added only 22,000 jobs, far below expectations of 75,000. This slowdown in job creation, coupled with an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, could prompt the Fed to prioritize supporting labor markets over controlling inflation.

Former Fed Kansas City President Esther George emphasized that while inflation is still a concern, the Fed’s next moves will depend heavily on how the central bank perceives the “restrictiveness” of its current policy.

The upcoming rate cut by the Fed is a pivotal moment, but the bigger question is whether it marks the beginning of a broader easing cycle or if it will be a temporary adjustment. With the U.S. economy facing a weaker labor market and persistent inflationary pressures, the Fed’s next steps will have significant implications for both economic growth and inflation management. The central bank will need to strike a delicate balance as it navigates the complexities of monetary policy in 2025.

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Economic

Historic Agreement Marks New Era for Nuclear Energy

In a groundbreaking move, the U.S. and UK have signed a historic agreement to jointly advance nuclear energy, marking the beginning of what both countries are calling a "golden era" for the sector. The deal, set to be announced during U.S. President Donald Trump's visit to the UK, is aimed at reducing reliance on traditional energy sources and addressing the global energy crisis while fostering economic growth and long-term energy security.

The agreement includes a commitment to streamline nuclear reactor licensing processes, with both countries aiming to cut the approval time for new projects from 3-4 years down to just 2 years. This will accelerate the development of next-generation nuclear power plants and related infrastructure, creating new opportunities for innovation and economic growth.

Strategic Partnerships and Major Investments

The partnership involves large-scale projects and investments. One of the key initiatives includes the collaboration between U.S.-based X-Energy and UK’s Centrica to develop up to 12 advanced modular reactors (AMRs) in the northeast of the UK. Chris O'Shea, CEO of Centrica, emphasized that this cooperation would help create a sustainable, affordable, and low-carbon energy system.

Additionally, a major £11 billion ($15 billion) project is underway to develop data centers using small modular reactors (SMRs) in central England, specifically at the site of the former Cottam coal plant. This project involves significant players like Holtec International (U.S.), EDF (France), and Tritax, with thousands of local jobs expected to be created.

Nuclear Collaboration to Improve Efficiency and Speed

One of the most innovative aspects of the agreement is the shared approach to nuclear management. The deal allows one country’s nuclear reactor safety findings to be used in the other country’s licensing processes, dramatically cutting down the time required for reactor approvals. This collaboration aims to make nuclear energy projects more efficient and timely, enabling faster deployment of clean energy solutions.

The UK government has also committed £14 billion ($19 billion) to the Sizewell C nuclear plant and is backing Rolls-Royce's development of the UK's first SMR. Meanwhile, Rolls-Royce is also extending its efforts in the U.S. to manage its reactors, creating new job opportunities and investment across both nations.

Long-Term Strategic and Economic Benefits

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer expressed confidence that the agreement would usher in a "golden age" for nuclear energy, noting that it would reduce household energy bills over the long term while creating thousands of good jobs in the short term. The deal is expected to bring both economic and strategic benefits, enhancing energy security by reducing dependence on traditional energy sources and improving resilience against market fluctuations.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright underscored that the agreements provide a framework for both nations to access the commercial potential of nuclear energy, with additional focus on advancing technology and investments in UK data centers.

The historic nuclear energy agreement between the U.S. and UK signals a transformative shift in the global energy landscape. By accelerating nuclear power development, reducing regulatory hurdles, and fostering cross-border collaboration, this deal lays the groundwork for a more sustainable, secure, and economically prosperous future. As both countries lead the way in nuclear innovation, this partnership is expected to be a major driver in the global push for clean energy solutions.

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Economic

Political

Barter Trade Resurges in Russia Due to Sanctions Pressure

For the first time since the 1990s, barter trade has resurfaced in Russia’s foreign trade system, driven by the heavy sanctions imposed by the U.S., Europe, and their allies. With more than 25,000 sanctions targeting Russia’s $2.2 trillion economy, the country has been cut off from the global SWIFT payment network, which has prompted businesses to turn to goods-for-goods exchanges to maintain trade relations.

Russia’s efforts to bypass the global financial system include exchanging wheat for Chinese cars, flax for construction materials, and even metals for machinery. This return to barter has become an essential method for avoiding secondary sanctions, particularly as Chinese banks, wary of U.S. penalties, are hesitant to engage in financial transactions with Russian entities.

Russia’s Economic Shift: From Fiat to Barter

The shift to barter has been officially encouraged by Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development, which released a 14-page guide in 2024 to help businesses navigate this new form of trade. The guide also proposes the establishment of a barter exchange platform, which would enable companies to swap goods and services without international financial transactions.

Although this method was previously of little interest to the market, recent data from customs and business sources show at least eight barter deals, including exchanges of Russian wheat for Chinese vehicles, flax for household goods and building materials, and even services for raw materials. These trades are valued at around $100,000 and represent a growing trend as Russia adapts to its isolated economic position.

Impact of Sanctions and the Push for De-Dollarization

Maxim Spassky, a representative of the Russian-Asian Business Union, highlighted three key factors driving the rise in barter trade: de-dollarization, sanctions pressure, and liquidity issues with trading partners. With global trade increasingly moving away from the dollar, Russia is seeking alternatives to ensure continued commerce without reliance on Western financial systems.

The shift to barter is also evident in trade data discrepancies between the Central Bank of Russia and its customs service, with a reported trade imbalance of $7 billion in the first half of 2025, likely caused by hard-to-track barter transactions.

Russia's Economic Landscape: Surviving Sanctions Through Alternative Methods

In response to the financial blockade, Russian businesses are turning to a variety of methods to keep operations running. These include using payment intermediaries, leveraging VTB Bank in Shanghai, and even using cryptocurrencies linked to the U.S. dollar to circumvent traditional banking systems.

Sergey Putyatinsky, a financial executive at BCS, noted that smaller businesses are heavily using cryptocurrencies. He explained that companies are employing multiple strategies, such as using cash, offsetting debts, or splitting accounts across various banks, as they adapt to the challenging environment. However, he pointed out that there is no comprehensive technological payment solution in place, and Russia's economy is surviving by experimenting with multiple payment methods simultaneously.

The resurgence of barter trade in Russia highlights the deepening impact of international sanctions and the country's shift toward alternative economic systems to maintain global trade. While the return to barter is not an ideal solution, it allows Russia to continue trading vital goods and services despite being cut off from traditional financial systems. As the country faces ongoing economic challenges, this shift marks a critical moment in the evolution of global trade practices, with Russia exploring new pathways for financial independence.

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Economic

Commodity

BRICS Nations Hold Over 6,000 Tons of Gold, Strengthening De-Dollarization Efforts

The BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) now holds over 6,000 tons of gold, roughly 20-21% of global central bank gold reserves. This significant gold accumulation is seen as a strategic move to reduce the bloc's dependence on the U.S. dollar for international trade, a process known as de-dollarization.

As of the latest data, Russia owns 2,335.85 tons of gold, China holds 2,298.53 tons, and India possesses 879.98 tons. Brazil and South Africa hold smaller amounts, with 129.65 tons and 125.47 tons, respectively. Together, Russia and China control approximately 74% of BRICS’ total gold reserves. These countries have been aggressive in their gold purchases, strengthening their financial standing and minimizing the risks associated with currency fluctuations.

Gold as a Strategic Shield for De-Dollarization

The accumulation of gold is not just for wealth preservation but also serves as a "shield" in BRICS' effort to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar in global trade. Gold helps stabilize value amidst currency volatility, offering a tangible asset base that BRICS can use to develop alternative financial systems that bypass the dollar.

Between 2008 and 2021, BRICS' share of global gold reserves surged from 5% to 22%, reflecting the bloc's growing investment in gold. This shift supports ongoing discussions about a potential BRICS currency backed by gold, providing an alternative to the U.S. dollar-dominated global financial system.

Gold Reserves Boost BRICS’ Financial and Strategic Ambitions

BRICS’ large gold reserves help the group achieve more than just financial security. The gold reserves bolster BRICS' ability to create a new monetary system based on tangible assets, further distancing the bloc from Western fiat currencies. This shift supports the group's drive to conduct trade in local currencies, bypassing the need for USD in international transactions.

Despite challenges in building the necessary infrastructure for a shared gold-backed currency, BRICS’ substantial gold holdings lay the foundation for new monetary solutions. These reserves have the potential to shift global financial power away from the U.S. dollar, enhancing the economic leverage of emerging markets over Western economies.

Path Forward: Challenges and Opportunities

While the idea of a gold-backed BRICS currency faces hurdles, such as infrastructure and coordination between member countries, the bloc's gold reserves have already established a solid foundation for alternative financial solutions. This movement toward de-dollarization is gradually altering the global financial order, presenting opportunities for emerging markets to increase their economic influence relative to Western powers.

As BRICS continues to explore direct currency settlements in trade and builds frameworks for financial independence, its growing gold reserves will play a critical role in reshaping the global economic landscape.

The BRICS bloc’s strategic accumulation of gold underscores its ongoing efforts to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar and develop a new, asset-backed financial system. While challenges remain in fully implementing a gold-backed BRICS currency, the substantial gold reserves position the group to gradually reshape the global financial order and enhance the standing of emerging economies in the process.

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