Gold Steadies Amid Uncertainty Over Potential Fed Rate Cut

The EURUSD pair ended the week under pressure as markets revised expectations for the Fed December decision. More Federal Reserve officials are expressing doubts about the need for further rate cuts.

Additional pressure on the US dollar came from the delayed jobs report: in September, the US economy added 119 thousand jobs, while unemployment rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021. However, the USD remained strong. This review analyses the factors likely to impact the EURUSD rate in the upcoming week of November.

EURUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Market focus: the EURUSD pair ended the week under pressure as the market continues to revise expectations for the Federal Reserve December decision. Committee members have become noticeably more cautious, and the delayed jobs report (119 thousand new jobs and a rise in unemployment to 4.4%) confirmed Jerome Powell's view that a rate cut is not guaranteed. The FOMC minutes revealed serious disagreements, adding more uncertainty for the pair.
• Current trend: the pair is holding near 1.1535 with a downward structure. The EURUSD rate is consolidating within the 1.1470–1.1655 range, having failed to break above the key resistance level at 1.1655. Price remains in the lower half of Bollinger Bands, with dynamic resistance around 1.1600. MACD stays in negative territory, with no reversal signal yet.
• Weekly outlook: the baseline scenario suggests sideways movement within the 1.1470–1.1655 range. A breakout below 1.1470 will intensify pressure and open the path to 1.1400. For the euro to recover, the pair must consolidate above 1.1600 and break through 1.1655 – only then will the short-term picture change.

EURUSD fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair ended the week under pressure. The market continues to react to revised expectations for Fed policy, as more officials adopt a cautious stance.

Throughout the week, FOMC members expressed doubts about a December rate cut. Austan Goolsbee noted that the slowdown in inflation progress and the lack of data due to the shutdown make him uncertain about further easing. Beth Hammack warned that additional cuts could prolong high inflation and fuel risky market behaviour.

The publication of the delayed employment report intensified the fundamental backdrop: in September, the US economy added 119 thousand jobs, more than double the forecast. At the same time, unemployment rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021. This mixed data supported Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's point that a December rate cut is far from assured.

The FOMC minutes also confirmed deep divisions within the committee, with many favouring a pause, while some are ready to support another cut in December if the situation allows.

Looking ahead, the Fed's comments and updated macroeconomic data, which are expected following the shutdown backlog, will set the market tone.

With three weeks to go before the December meeting, the diverging views among FOMC members create an uncertainty zone for the EURUSD pair.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, the EURUSD pair continues its downward trajectory. The instrument remains under pressure after several failed attempts to break above the 1.1655 zone, a key medium-term resistance level. Recent candlesticks are forming near 1.1535, reflecting weak buying momentum and a lack of confidence in a recovery.

Since early November, the pair has stabilised above the 1.1470 support level. This marks the lower boundary of the range, keeping sellers from pushing prices further down. The current phase appears to be consolidation between 1.1470 and 1.1655 following a decline, but the structure remains bearish. Prices are hovering in the lower half of Bollinger Bands, with the midline around 1.1600 acting as dynamic resistance.

MACD remains in negative territory and is gradually declining, signalling weakening buying pressure and continued bearish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator is near oversold levels, indicating potential exhaustion, but sending no clear reversal yet. The market may stay near these lower levels for some time.

A breakout below the 1.1470 level would open the door to a deeper decline. For a recovery, the pair must consolidate above 1.1600 and return to 1.1655 – only then will the short-term structure change.

EURUSD trading scenarios

The EURUSD pair ended the week near 1.1535, under pressure after repeated failed attempts to break above the key resistance level at 1.1655. Fundamentally, the pair is trading amid growing uncertainty as more Fed officials are questioning the appropriateness of a December rate cut, and the delayed jobs report widened the divergence in economic outlooks.

The technical picture now appears negative. The EURUSD pair is hovering in the lower part of the 1.1470–1.1655 range, trading below dynamic resistance near 1.1600. MACD remains in negative territory, showing weak buying interest, while the Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory but lacks a reversal impulse. The market structure remains bearish despite the local consolidation.

• Buy scenario

Long positions become relevant only after a firm consolidation above 1.1600, with confirmation of a bullish reversal coming from a breakout above 1.1655.

Targets: 1.1720–1.1745, then 1.1800

Stop-loss: below 1.1535

• Sell scenario

Short positions are preferred after a breakout below the 1.1470 level, confirming a renewed bearish trend.

Targets: 1.1400–1.1380, and if pressure increases, movement towards 1.1300 may follow.

Stop-loss: above 1.1600

Conclusion:

The baseline scenario is consolidation between 1.1470–1.1600, with an increased risk of retesting the lower boundary of the range if the dollar strengthens. To confirm a bullish reversal, the EURUSD pair must consolidate above 1.1655, which remains the key resistance area capping buyers.

Summary

The EURUSD pair will likely remain within a neutral range during 24–28 November, reflecting market caution ahead of the Fed's December meeting. Uncertainty due to delayed macroeconomic reports and the absence of clear signals from the Fed and ECB prevents the pair from forming a sustainable bullish impulse.

The technical structure has turned gloomier: the EURUSD pair is consolidating within the 1.1470–1.1600 range without breaking key levels. Indicators show weakening downward momentum, but the lack of consolidation above 1.1600 limits the recovery potential to 1.1680–1.1730. If the dollar strengthens and Fed rhetoric becomes more hawkish, the pair could retest 1.1450–1.1470. The baseline scenario for the week suggests sideways movement with a slight bullish bias if US data comes in weak.

Source: RoboForex

U.S. Economic Growth vs. Weak Job Creation

The Role of Technology Investments and Policy Changes

The Risk of a Jobless Expansion

Source: Reuters

Stock Market Overview and Recovery Signals

Corporate Activity and Global Shifts

U.S.-China Tensions and Technological Advancements

Source: CNBC

Gold (XAUUSD) remains under pressure. The decline is driven by a sharp drop in expectations for a December Fed rate cut to 30%, internal division within the FOMC, and the delay in official statistics due to the shutdown.

This review highlights the key factors that could influence gold's dynamics during 24–28 November 2025. The focus will be on the release of delayed US labour market data, the Fed's response to the risks of an economic slowdown, and the technical market structure after XAUUSD entered the 4,050–4,150 range.

XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Weekly dynamics: gold (XAUUSD) ended the week below 4,070 USD per ounce. After a short-lived recovery, selling pressure resumed as the FOMC meeting minutes confirmed internal division. The delay in macroeconomic data due to the shutdown added further uncertainty
• Support and resistance: key zones are concentrated in the 4,050–4,150 range, where the market is consolidating. The main support levels are located at 4,050 and 3,883, with resistance lying at 4,230–4,250 and the all-time high of 4,378. A move above 4,250 would open the way to 4,370–4,380, while a return below 4,050 would raise the risk of a drop to 3,883
• Fundamentals: the FOMC minutes revealed a split among policymakers. The likelihood of a December rate cut dropped to 30%, down from 50% earlier. Employment and inflation data are distorted due to the shutdown. Gold is receiving mixed signals: on the one hand, soft data typically strengthens demand; on the other hand, improving risk appetite reduces safe-haven interest
• Outlook: the baseline scenario is continued consolidation within the 4,050–4,150 range, with a potential short-term pullback due to weak oscillator momentum. For an upward move to resume, gold must consolidate above 4,250. The lack of catalysts and dollar strength could bring prices back to 4,050 and 3,883. The medium-term trend remains upward

Gold (XAUUSD) fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) ended the week with a decline below 4,070 USD per ounce. After two days of gains, downward pressure resumed as investors reassessed expectations for a December Fed policy easing.

The FOMC minutes revealed a deep division among committee members. Some favour supporting the labour market, while others see inflation risks as too high to allow for a quick rate cut. As a result, the probability of a December rate cut fell to 30%, down from 50% a day earlier.

An additional uncertainty factor is the delayed macroeconomic data due to the shutdown. The market was waiting for the September employment report. The October figures will not be released, and some data will be included in the November release.

Improved sentiment in equity markets also reduced safe-haven demand, intensifying the correction in gold. Overall, the week ended under pressure. The XAUUSD outlook now largely depends on the upcoming US labour market data and the Fed's response to it.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, XAUUSD shows a broad uptrend, which peaked near 4,378, an all-time resistance level from which prices sharply retreated. After a strong rally in September and October, gold entered a corrective phase, with candlesticks stabilising above the key support level at 3,883, forming a consolidation range roughly between 4,050–4,150.

Prices are trading in the upper section of the Bollinger Bands channel, but the middle band around 3,950–4,000 acts as nearby support. MACD is gradually declining, indicating waning bullish momentum, although it remains above the zero line. The Stochastic Oscillator is moving lower from overbought territory, suggesting the possibility of a short-term pullback or sideways movement.

Overall, gold is holding above the key 3,883 level, maintaining a stable uptrend. However, the nearest resistance at 4,378 is still capping further upside. The 4,050–4,150 zone forms the current consolidation range.

XAUUSD trading scenarios

The fundamental backdrop for gold remains moderately positive despite the recent decline. Pressure on XAUUSD increased due to revised expectations for the Fed's December decision and internal FOMC division. The probability of a rate cut fell to 30%, but ongoing uncertainty over US data – delays due to the shutdown, missing October labour report, and weak private employment estimates – still supports safe-haven demand. Gold stabilised in the 4,050–4,150 range.

• Buy scenario

Long positions are appropriate if prices remain above 4,050.

A breakout above resistance at 4,230–4,250 would open the way to retest the all-time high of 4,378, and a move above this level would expand targets toward the 4,400+ area. Bullish drivers include weak US macroeconomic data, dovish Fed commentary, and persistent uncertainty from delayed data.

• Sell scenario

Short positions become relevant if prices break below 4,050. This would shift targets towards the 3,880–3,900 zone – the next strong demand area. Additional pressure may come from dollar strength, rising bond yields, and renewed risk appetite following the full resumption of statistical publications.

Conclusion:

Gold remains within the 4,050–4,150 range and continues to stabilise. The baseline scenario suggests consolidation above 4,050 with potential for a move back to 4,230–4,250. A breakout below 4,050 would signal a deeper correction. The medium-term trend remains upward.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) ended the week with losses and settled below 4,070 USD per ounce after a two-day rebound. Selling pressure intensified following a drop in the probability of a December Fed rate cut to 30% and the release of FOMC minutes. Additional uncertainty came from delays in key macroeconomic data due to the shutdown: the September employment report is late, and October figures will not be released. Improved market sentiment has reduced demand for safe-haven assets.

Technically, gold remains in a consolidation phase after its recovery. The 4,050–4,150 range continues to define the short-term structure, with key support levels at 4,050 and 3,883. Resistance lies at 4,230–4,250 and the all-time high of 4,378. A breakout above 4,250 would be the first signal of a retest of the highs, while a dip below 4,050 increases the risk of a return to 3,900 without breaking the medium-term bullish trend.

Source: RoboForex

German business confidence unexpectedly dipped in November, a fresh sign of the challenge to overcome stagnation even as the government ramps up spending.

An expectations index by the Ifo institute dropped to 90.6 in November from 91.6 the previous month, a release Monday showed. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey had predicted an unchanged reading. A measure of existing conditions edged higher.

"Companies assessed their current situation as somewhat more positive," Ifo President Clemens Fuest said. "They have little faith that a recovery is coming anytime soon," however, with the outlook among manufacturers taking a "significant hit."

The data underscore doubts about the government's plan to restore growth by investing in infrastructure and defense. While the Bundesbank and most other forecasters expect output to expand in the fourth quarter after a volatile 2025, some have recently scaled back their predictions.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz's economic advisers this month lowered their growth forecast for next year to less than 1%, while warning that the government must ensure outlays are targeted at additional and productive investments. Otherwise, the chance to address deep-seated challenges and restore longer-term growth could be squandered, they said.

Business surveys by S&P Global released last week showed business activity continued to grow in November, but at a slower pace than in the previous month. Manufacturing suffered a particular setback as new orders fell sharply.

The European Commission still said last week that it expects Germany to end its long period of stagnation next year. While US tariffs and global uncertainty will continue to pressure exporters, the economy should benefit from higher investments and private consumption next year, it said.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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