Gold, silver seeing price pauses as traders await new inputs

Commodity

Summary:

Gold and silver prices are steady as traders await developments from U.S.-China trade talks. Market activity remains muted amid light economic data, with both metals maintaining strong technical bullish positions.

Gold and silver prices are near steady in early U.S. trading Tuesday, as the general marketplace appears to be pausing amid a lack of major fundamental news developments early this week. August gold was last down $0.40 at $3,354.40. July silver prices were last up $0.034 at $36.835.

Asian and European stocks were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed openings today in New York. Much of the marketplace is pausing amid the closely watched U.S.-China trade talks in London that have entered a second day but with no official announcements on any progress. There are rumors of some progress in the talks, with some news outlets reporting both sides are willing to make some concessions.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly up and trading around $65.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently at 4.45%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the NFIB small business index.

Gold, silver seeing price pauses as traders await new inputs_1

Technically, August gold futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at last week’s high of $3,427.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,250.00. First resistance is seen at $3,375.00 and then at $3,400.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $3,321.30 and then at this week’s low of $3,313.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

Gold, silver seeing price pauses as traders await new inputs_2

July silver futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $40.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $34.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $37.03 and then at $37.50. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $36.425 and then at $36.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

source : kitco

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Glendon

Political

Britain and other allies imposed sanctions on two far-right Israeli ministers, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, on Tuesday over "their repeated incitements of violence against Palestinian communities", the UK's foreign ministry said.

Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Norway joined Britain in freezing the assets and imposing travel bans on Israel's national security minister Ben-Gvir - a West Bank settler - and finance minister Smotrich.

"Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich have incited extremist violence and serious abuses of Palestinian human rights. These actions are not acceptable," British foreign minister David Lammy, along with the foreign ministers of Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Norway said in a joint statement.

"This is why we have taken action now to hold those responsible to account."

Israel's foreign minister, Gideon Saar, said the move was "outrageous" and the government would hold a special meeting early next week to decide how to respond to the "unacceptable decision".

Smotrich, speaking at the inauguration of a new settlement in the Hebron Hills, spoke of "contempt" for Britain's move.

"Britain has already tried once to prevent us from settling the cradle of our homeland, and we cannot do it again. We are determined God willing to continue building."

Britain, like other European countries, has been increasing pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government to end the blockade on aid into Gaza, where international experts have said famine is imminent.

In Tuesday's joint statement, allies tried to soften the blow by saying Britain reiterated its commitment to continuing "a strong friendship with the people of Israel based on shared ties, values and commitment to [its] security and future".

"We will strive to achieve an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the immediate release of the remaining hostages by Hamas which can have no future role in the governance of Gaza, a surge in aid and a path to a two-state solution," the statement said.

Source: Reuters

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Warren Takunda

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

President Donald Trump’s trade wars are expected to slash economic growth this year in the United States and around the world, the World Bank forecast Tuesday.

Citing “a substantial rise in trade barriers’’ but without mentioning Trump by name, the 189-country lender predicted that the U.S. economy – the world’s largest – would grow half as fast (1.4%) this year as it did in 2024 (2.8%). That marked a downgrade from the 2.3% U.S. growth it had forecast back for 2025 back in January.

The bank also lopped 0.4 percentage points off its forecast for global growth this year. It now expects the world economy to expand just 2.3% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024.

In a forward to the latest version of the twice-yearly Global Economic Prospects report, World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill wrote that the global economy has missed its chance for the “soft landing’’ — slowing enough to tame inflation without generating serious pain — it appeared headed for just six months ago. “The world economy today is once more running into turbulence,” Gill wrote. “Without a swift course correction, the harm to living standards could be deep.’’

America’s economic prospects have been clouded by Trump’s erratic and aggressive trade policies, including 10% taxes — tariffs — on imports from almost every country in the world. These levies drive up costs in the U.S. and invite retaliation from other countries.

The Chinese economy is forecast to see growth slow from 5% in 2024 to 4.5% this year and 4% next. The world’s second-largest economy has been hobbled by the tariffs that Trump has imposed on its exports, by the collapse of its real estate market and by an aging workforce.

The World Bank expects the 20 European countries that share the euro currency to collectively grow just 0.7% this year, down from an already lackluster 0.9% in 2024. Trump’s tariffs are expected to hurt European exports. And the unpredictable way he rolls them out — announcing them, suspending them, coming up with new ones — has created uncertainty that discourages business investment.

India is once again expected to the be world’s fastest-growing major economy, expanding at a 6.3% clip this year. But that’s down from 6.5% in 2024 and from the 6.7% the bank had forecast for 2025 in January. In Japan, economic growth is expected to accelerate this year – but only from 0.2% in 2024 to a sluggish 0.7% this year, well short of the 1.2% the World Bank had forecast in January.

The World Bank seeks to reduce poverty and boost living standards by providing grants and low-rate loans to poor economies.

Another multinational organization that seeks to promote global prosperity — the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development — last week downgraded its forecast for the U.S. and global economies.

Source: AP

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Adam

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

Futures Dip as Trade Talks Take Center Stage

U.S. equity futures are slightly lower ahead of Tuesday’s open as traders await updates from ongoing U.S.-China trade discussions. Dow futures are down 54 points (-0.13%), with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also modestly in the red. Monday’s cash session saw the S&P 500 close up 0.1%, the Nasdaq gain 0.3%, and the Dow finish flat.

Markets are monitoring whether officials can build on last month’s tariff-cutting breakthrough. Any signs of friction or compromise could influence positioning this week.

Small Business Gauge Offers Early Read on Sentiment

06:00 GMT – NFIB Small Business Index (May)

Forecast: 95.9 | Previous: 95.8

The May NFIB Index edged higher and will offer insight into small business sentiment and labor market pressures. While not a high-impact release, it could inform expectations for upcoming inflation data and Fed policy direction.

Earnings Spotlight: Meme Stocks, Food Staples, and More

Before the Bell:

ASO (Academy Sports): Est. EPS $0.89

CNM (Core & Main): Est. EPS $0.52

SJM (J.M. Smucker): Est. EPS $2.24

UNFI (United Natural Foods): Est. EPS $0.22

After the Bell:

Daily GameStop Corporation

GME (GameStop): Est. EPS $0.08, rev. $750M (-15% YoY)

Traders will scrutinize management’s Bitcoin strategy and retail plans after a 32% three-month run. Despite momentum, analyst skepticism remains high due to weak fundamentals.

PLAY (Dave & Buster’s): Est. EPS $1.02

GTLB (GitLab): Est. EPS $0.15

SFIX (Stitch Fix): Est. EPS -$0.12

All Eyes on Trump for Policy Signals

16:00 GMT – President Trump Speaks

Traders will tune in for any policy updates or trade-related commentary, particularly regarding China. With negotiations active, market sensitivity is elevated.

Index Futures Press Into Resistance Zones

S&P 500 Index Futures: Stalling Near Key Resistance

Daily E-mini S&P 500 Index

Futures are trading near 6,010. Overhead resistance is at 6,236.50. Support rests at 5,901.92 (200-day SMA) and 5,756.50. The trend holds above the rising 50-day SMA at 5,666.5.

Nasdaq 100 Futures: Rejected at Range Highs

Daily E-mini Nasdaq 100 Index Futures

Current price action is near 21,822.50, with resistance at 22,656.75. Initial support is at 20,727.00, with moving average backup at 20,091.3. Bulls need fresh highs to continue the breakout.

Dow Jones Futures: Testing Resistance Band

Daily E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Futures sit just below heavy resistance at 43,148. Support remains at 41,252.9 (50-day SMA), with risk toward 40,431 on any break lower.

Outlook: Focused, Poised, and Primed for Reaction

Traders face a headline-driven session centered on trade negotiations and GameStop’s results after the bell. With technical levels compressing across major indexes, price action is primed to react. Stay focused—momentum remains constructive but sensitive to the policy narrative.

Source: fxempire

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Warren Takunda

Economic

The downturn in the UK’s jobs market appears to be gathering pace, but the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will hope that means slower wage growth will open the way to more interest rate cuts.

Unemployment has continued to rise, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, ticking up to 4.6% in the three months to April, from 4.5% in the three months to March.

Vacancies declined in the three months to May, the 35th successive fall, with some evidence that the downturn is accelerating as rising employment costs, including the higher minimum wage and Reeves’s £25bn employer national insurance increase, start to bite.

The ONS said the 63,000 fall in vacancies was the sharpest since mid-2023, reflecting survey evidence that “some firms may not be recruiting new workers or replacing workers who have left”.

Payrolled employment – a more timely estimate, but one the ONS suggests treating with caution – declined by 109,000, or 0.4%, in May.

The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, has made clear he sees the labour market – and specifically wage growth – as the key determinant of whether interest rates can come down from their elevated level of 4.25%. Reeves Will Hope Weaker Wage Growth Enables More Interest Rate Cuts_1

Reeves Will Hope Weaker Wage Growth Enables More Interest Rate Cuts_1

Speaking to MPs on the cross-party Treasury select committee last week, Bailey said the question of whether pay settlements would decline through this year was “a crucial judgment going forward”.

One dovish member of the Bank’s nine-member monetary policy committee (MPC), Swati Dhingra, suggested she feared keeping rates high for such an extended period was damaging the economy.

Bailey is likely to have been modestly reassured, then, to see wage growth slipping in the three months to April, to 5.2% for regular pay, down from 5.5% in the three months to March.

The MPC acknowledges that interest rates are squeezing economic growth but is nervous about cutting further until it is confident lower rates will not unleash a fresh surge of inflation.

Thomas Pugh, an economist at the consultancy RSM UK, suggested the Bank was likely to continue to hold off for now. “A rising unemployment rate, another slump in payroll numbers, fewer vacancies and slowing wage growth paints a pretty clear picture of a rapidly cooling labour market,” he said. “However, with private-sector pay growth still running at almost double the rate the MPC is comfortable with, further policy easing will be gradual.”

Along with many analysts, he believes a rate cut could come in August, continuing with the Bank’s pace of quarterly reductions.

In her speech in Rochdale last week, highlighting £15bn planned investment in buses, trams and other transport links, Reeves claimed the credit for the four rate cuts the Bank has already made since she arrived in No 11, arguing her strict fiscal rules had helped.

“It is the stability that my rules supports, and the choices we made as a government in October, that have helped facilitate four cuts to interest rates since the last election – saving £650 a year for a family taking out a new, typical two-year fixed-rate mortgage,” she told bored-looking bus workers.

The Treasury knows that lower rates are a key determinant of the cost of living, as well as feeding through to yields on government bonds.

Reeves will be hoping wage growth continues to cool off enough to persuade Bailey and his colleagues to cut again, most likely in August, but the Treasury will also be watching nervously in case the downturn in the jobs market accelerates.

Source: Theguardian

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Michelle

Economic

Forex

Sentiment among US small businesses rose in May for the first time in 2025 as firms grew more upbeat about the economic outlook.

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) optimism index climbed three points to 98.8, the group said on Tuesday. Seven of the survey’s 10 components improved, led by better expectations for business conditions and real sales.

Even so, the uncertainty index rose, underscoring a rocky rollout to US President Donald Trump’s tariffs as well as additional questions regarding his signature tax legislation, which is working its way through Congress. Taxes ranked as the single most important problem in the survey for the first time since the end of 2020.

“Although optimism recovered slightly in May, uncertainty is still high among small-business owners,” Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB’s chief economist, said in a statement.

The rebound in the headline number follows one of the longest stretches of declines in the last decade and came during a month when trade tensions generally eased, marked by a pause in the extreme tariffs between the US and China. The countries are currently trying to negotiate a more lasting resolution and address other trade issues.

The temporary agreement may have given firms some confidence to pursue investments. The share of owners planning a capital expenditure in coming months rose to the the highest this year, but is still near the lowest level since the onset of the pandemic.

Economists generally expect tariffs to boost inflation, and a net 31% of small businesses said they plan to raise prices in the next three months, the most in over a year. The consumer price index due on Wednesday is projected to show underlying inflation picked up in May.

While owners are more optimistic about sales prospects, a net 13% of owners saw lower sales over the past three months — up from 8% in April and marking the biggest jump since October 2023. Firms generally still reported difficulty obtaining loans and see harder credit conditions in the next three months.

Labour market dynamics showed signs of easing. Hiring plans are near some of the lowest levels since the early months of the pandemic, and a net 26% of owners said they raised compensation in recent months, the lowest reading since February 2021.

The NFIB survey was based on responses from 485 small businesses collected throughout the month, amounting to a response rate of 9.7%.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Adam

Commodity

China–U.S. Trade War

Oil prices climbed on Tuesday as investors awaited the outcome of U.S.-China trade talks and as Saudi Arabia's crude supply to China is set to dip slightly.

Brent crude futures rose 44 cents, or 0.7%, to $67.48 a barrel by 1200 GMT, extending Monday's advance. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 43 cents, or 0.7%, at $65.72.

U.S.-China trade talks were set to continue for a second day in London as top officials aimed to ease tensions that have expanded from tariffs to rare earth curbs, risking global supply chain disruptions and slower growth.

"There's a sense of optimism around these trade talks, the market is waiting to see what this will produce and that is supporting prices," said Harry Tchilinguirian, group head of research at Onyx Capital Group.

Prices have recovered as demand concerns have faded with the trade talks between Washington and Beijing and a favourable U.S. jobs report, while there are risks to North American supply due to wildfires in Canada, Goldman Sachs analysts said.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that the talks with China were going well and he was "only getting good reports" from his team in London.

A trade deal between the U.S. and China could support the global economic outlook and boost demand for commodities including oil.

Saudi Arabia's state oil firm Saudi Aramco will ship about 47 million barrels to China in July, a tally of allocations to Chinese refiners showed, 1 million barrels less than June's allotted volume, Reuters reported.

"The Saudi allocations could be an early sign that OPEC+'s unwind may not actually mean that much additional supply," Tchilinguirian said. "After all these unwinds, one would have thought that we would be getting more from the country that can produce more."

OPEC+, which pumps about half of the world's oil and includes OPEC members and allies such as Russia, put forward plans for an increase of 411,000 barrels per day for July as it looks to wrestle back market share and punish over-producers. It is set to unwind production cuts for the fourth straight month.

A Reuters survey found that OPEC oil output rose in May, although the increase was limited as Iraq pumped below target to compensate for earlier overproduction and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates made smaller hikes than allowed.

"The prospect of further hikes in OPEC supply continues to hang over the market," Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said in a note.

Elsewhere, Iran said it would soon hand a counter-proposal for a nuclear deal to the U.S. in response to a U.S. offer that Tehran deems "unacceptable", while Trump made clear that the two sides remained at odds over whether the country would be allowed to continue enriching uranium on Iranian soil.

Iran is the third-largest producer among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and any easing of U.S. sanctions on Iran would allow it to export more oil, weighing on global crude prices.