Gold Rebounds as Trump’s Tehran Evacuation Warning Fuels Safe-Haven Rush

Commodity

Middle East Situation

Summary:

Gold prices climbed early Tuesday in Asia after U.S. President Donald Trump called for the immediate evacuation of Tehran, rekindling investor appetite for safe-haven assets amid escalating Israel-Iran tensions...

Geopolitical Anxiety Fuels Renewed Gold Demand

Gold rose as much as 0.4% in early Asian trading, reaching above $3,400 per ounce after a sharp 1.4% pullback on Monday—its steepest daily loss in a month. The rebound was driven by renewed geopolitical anxiety following President Trump’s urgent call for evacuation from Tehran, which underscored the risk of a broader Middle East conflict.

The warning, issued via social media, came shortly after Trump reiterated that Iran should have signed a nuclear agreement prior to Israel’s recent strikes. Markets interpreted the message as a sign of deepening instability, prompting renewed haven demand across global financial centers.

Ongoing Conflict and Economic Fears Sustain Rally

Despite the brief correction on Monday, gold remains on track for its sixth consecutive monthly gain—the strongest such rally in over 20 years. This resilience reflects not only military conflict fears but also broader macroeconomic unease. The ongoing surge has been supported by global uncertainty surrounding Trump's aggressive tariff strategy, heightened inflation concerns, and fears of weaker global growth.

Gold gained nearly 4% last week as Israel escalated its campaign against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. The possibility of prolonged conflict across a region central to global energy supply has made precious metals a favored hedge for institutional and retail investors alike.

Long-Term Outlook Bolstered by Political Uncertainty

Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, recently noted that gold is "no longer for lunatic survivalists," emphasizing that bullion has become a mainstream financial safe haven amid policy shocks and geopolitical risks. With prices now only $100 away from the all-time high reached in April, sentiment remains bullish as both fundamental and technical factors align in gold’s favor.

Spot gold traded at $3,395.46 an ounce, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remained flat—suggesting that gold’s gains were driven more by geopolitical than currency-driven dynamics. Silver edged higher, while platinum remained stable and palladium saw a minor decline.

Gold’s swift recovery from Monday’s dip signals the market’s sensitivity to conflict headlines and policy unpredictability. As long as the Israel-Iran situation remains unresolved and global trade tensions simmer, the precious metal is likely to stay elevated—offering a reliable refuge amid mounting global risks.

Source: Bloomberg

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Escalation in Iran-Israel Tensions Reverses Oil Market Calm

Oil markets opened sharply higher on Tuesday, reversing Monday’s brief pullback, as intensifying violence between Iran and Israel reignited fears of a significant disruption to Middle Eastern energy supply chains. Brent crude rose by 1.6% to $74.40 a barrel, while WTI jumped 1.87% to $73.11—both contracts had risen more than 2% earlier in the trading session.

Tuesday marked the fifth consecutive day of hostilities, with reports from Iranian state media confirming explosions and active air defense fire over Tehran. Simultaneously, air raid sirens blared in Tel Aviv as Israel responded to incoming Iranian missiles. These developments reintroduced a geopolitical risk premium into oil prices after markets had momentarily relaxed on Monday, following misleading reports suggesting Iran was pursuing a ceasefire.

This rapid escalation cast doubt on any imminent diplomatic resolution, pushing traders to factor in possible supply disruptions. Iran, the third-largest oil producer within OPEC, contributes significantly to global crude flows. Any impairment of its export capacity—via direct damage or sanctions intensification—could tighten an already finely balanced oil market.

Strategic Infrastructure and Nuclear Sites Under Threat

The conflict's stakes were raised further after Israeli strikes targeted key infrastructure, including Iran’s state media headquarters and reportedly inflicted extensive damage on its largest uranium enrichment facility. The head of the UN nuclear watchdog noted this damage could impact regional stability and energy geopolitics.

US President Donald Trump, addressing the crisis from the G7 summit, urged all American nationals to evacuate Tehran and doubled down on his earlier stance that Iran missed its chance to agree to a nuclear deal. He hinted that Iran may now be seeking a deal—implying a potential shift in US diplomatic positioning, though no formal progress has been confirmed.

Oil Markets Weigh Conflicting Forces: Sanctions vs. Conflict

Ironically, any potential US-Iran deal that eases sanctions could enable Iran to export more oil, which might ordinarily place downward pressure on prices. However, in the short term, active conflict and the physical risk to energy facilities dominate market reactions. The current conflict dynamics effectively neutralize bearish implications from hypothetical diplomacy.

Adding to the supply-side narrative, OPEC+ issued a cautiously optimistic view of the global economy for the remainder of 2025. The alliance, which includes major producers like Russia and Saudi Arabia, expects moderate economic resilience but trimmed its 2026 non-OPEC+ oil supply forecast, citing weaker output growth in countries like the United States.

This suggests that even if demand remains stable, long-term supply additions may fall short of expectations—particularly if geopolitical instability persists in core production zones such as the Middle East.

The sharp reversal in oil market sentiment highlights the fragile balance between geopolitical developments and supply fundamentals. While Monday's dip was driven by speculative optimism, Tuesday's renewed violence and high-profile political warnings restored upward pressure. As long as Iran’s strategic energy infrastructure remains under threat, and no credible ceasefire path emerges, oil is likely to remain volatile, with an upside bias driven by uncertainty over regional stability.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Economic

Forex

Cautious Sentiment Lifts Dollar as Global Markets Eye Central Bank Moves

The US dollar strengthened modestly on Tuesday as investors maintained a defensive posture, navigating persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East and preparing for pivotal monetary policy decisions later this week. Currency markets remained largely range-bound, reflecting a broader mood of uncertainty tied to both war and interest rate outlooks.

The Japanese yen stabilized near 144.70 per dollar as traders awaited the outcome of the Bank of Japan’s two-day policy meeting. The BOJ is expected to leave interest rates unchanged but may outline plans to gradually taper its bond purchases. Despite recent volatility, the yen's muted response signals limited immediate repricing, especially with market participants more focused on Governor Kazuo Ueda’s tone in the post-meeting press conference.

Analysts are especially attentive to how Ueda frames Japan’s inflation trajectory, which could hint at future policy normalization. According to Carol Kong from Commonwealth Bank of Australia, any shift in Ueda’s language, particularly in light of US-Japan tariff uncertainties and trade friction, could move markets meaningfully.

Middle East Conflict Adds Risk Premium

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on risk sentiment. President Donald Trump’s early departure from the G7 summit underscores the seriousness of the Iran-Israel standoff, which markets fear could escalate into broader regional instability. Trump’s call for evacuation from Tehran and criticism of Iran’s nuclear posture has stirred anxiety, although for now, investors appear to view the situation as containable.

Oil prices and safe-haven demand have been highly sensitive to these developments, but the dollar—typically a refuge in times of uncertainty—has seen mild support as investors pull back from riskier assets.

Commodity Currencies and Euro Weaken

The Australian dollar dropped 0.27% to $0.6507, and the New Zealand dollar slipped 0.17% to $0.6049. Both currencies are considered risk-sensitive and tend to weaken in times of global stress. The euro fell to $1.1545, and the British pound eased slightly to $1.3563, even as Trump signed a bilateral tariff-lowering agreement with the UK as part of ongoing trade negotiations.

Eyes on the Fed: No Cuts in Sight?

Markets are now turning to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday. While the Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady, investor attention is laser-focused on the Summary of Economic Projections and the "dot plot" for clues on the timing and magnitude of future rate changes.

According to Lazard’s chief market strategist Ronald Temple, markets may be overly optimistic in pricing two rate cuts this year. “I expect zero,” Temple remarked, anticipating that the Fed will lean hawkish in its updated projections.

The dollar index, measured against a basket of major currencies, rose to 98.23, continuing its gradual climb as a reflection of these cautious rate expectations and geopolitical concerns.

Currency markets remain in a holding pattern, delicately balancing expectations of central bank actions with geopolitical flashpoints. The dollar’s resilience signals a wait-and-see approach among investors, who are unlikely to commit to bold positions until clarity emerges from the BOJ and, more importantly, the Fed. For now, the bias favors dollar strength—tempered by volatility from both trade and turmoil abroad.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Henry Thompson

In the dynamic world of global finance, including the ever-watchful cryptocurrency markets, geopolitical shifts in the Middle East are always a key consideration. Tensions between major regional players can send ripples through economies worldwide. Recently, a significant development suggests a potential shift in the ongoing Iran Israel dynamic, offering a glimmer of hope for reduced hostilities.

Understanding the Iran Israel Dynamic

For years, the relationship between Iran and Israel has been marked by significant tension and proxy conflicts across the region. This animosity stems from a complex mix of historical grievances, ideological differences, and competing strategic interests. While direct confrontation has been rare, indirect clashes and rhetoric have kept the region on edge, impacting everything from oil prices to investment sentiment in various markets, including how investors perceive regional stability.

The recent exchange of direct fire marked a notable escalation, raising international alarm. However, amidst this heightened tension, signals are now emerging that suggest a potential off-ramp.

Prospects for De-escalation: What Are the Signals?

According to sources cited by The Wall Street Journal, Iran has reportedly expressed an interest in cooling down tensions with Israel. This interest was conveyed through Arab intermediaries, indicating a preference for diplomatic channels rather than continued confrontation. The use of intermediaries is a common tactic in complex geopolitical situations, allowing for communication without direct, formal recognition or engagement between adversaries.

Furthermore, a report shared by Walter Bloomberg on X highlighted a specific condition mentioned by Iran for resuming discussions: the United States must remain uninvolved in the conflict. This condition underscores the intricate web of alliances and rivalries in the Middle East, where the role of global powers significantly influences regional dynamics.

Let’s break down the key elements of these signals:

● Channel: Arab intermediaries are being used, suggesting a move towards indirect diplomacy.

● Goal: Expressed interest in de-escalating tensions.

● Condition: Resumption of talks contingent on U.S. non-involvement.

These signals, while preliminary and requiring careful observation, represent a potential shift from the recent tit-for-tat exchanges.

Why Middle East Stability Matters Globally

The Middle East is a crucial geopolitical hub due to its energy resources, strategic waterways, and complex political landscape. Instability in this region has far-reaching consequences:

● Energy Markets: Disruptions can lead to volatile oil and gas prices, affecting global economies.

● Supply Chains: Key shipping lanes pass through the region, vulnerable to conflict.

● Refugee Flows: Conflict can trigger humanitarian crises and mass displacement.

● Global Security: Regional conflicts can attract external powers and fuel international terrorism.

● Financial Markets: Uncertainty leads to risk aversion, impacting stocks, bonds, and commodities, and yes, even the resilience of the crypto market can be tested by such external shocks.

Therefore, any movement towards de-escalation is not just a regional matter but a development with global implications for geopolitics and economic stability.

Challenges and Considerations Ahead

While the signals for de-escalation are positive, several challenges remain:

● Trust Deficit: Decades of animosity have created a deep lack of trust between Iran and Israel.

● Conditionality: Iran’s condition regarding U.S. non-involvement is complex and may not be easily met or agreed upon by all parties.

● Proxy Activities: Even if direct tensions ease, activities by proxy groups supported by Iran in the region could continue to be a source of friction.

● Internal Politics: Both countries have internal political dynamics that can influence foreign policy decisions.

Moving from signaling interest to actual talks and meaningful de-escalation is a long and challenging process requiring sustained diplomatic effort and flexibility from all sides. The role of Arab intermediaries will be crucial in navigating these complexities.

Conclusion: A Hopeful Sign for Regional Stability?

The reports of Iran signaling a desire to de-escalate tensions with Israel, conveyed through Arab intermediaries and conditioned on U.S. non-involvement, offer a potentially hopeful turning point after a period of heightened direct confrontation. While significant hurdles remain, and the path to genuine regional stability is fraught with challenges, these signals are a reminder that diplomatic off-ramps are always possible, even between long-standing adversaries. Monitoring how these signals translate into action will be critical for understanding the future trajectory of Middle East geopolitics and its potential ripple effects across the globe, including in sensitive markets like cryptocurrency.

Source: CryptoSlate

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Hannah Ellis

U.S. President Donald Trump is leaving the Group of Seven summit in Canada a day early due to the situation in the Middle East, the White House said on Monday.

The G7 has struggled to find unity over conflicts in Ukraine and between Israel and Iran as Trump overtly expressed support for Russian President Vladimir Putin and has imposed tariffs on many of the allies present.

Trump had earlier urged everyone to immediately evacuate Tehran, and reiterated that Iran should have signed a nuclear deal with the United States.

"Much was accomplished, but because of what’s going on in the Middle East, President Trump will be leaving tonight after dinner with Heads of State," Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on X.

French President Emmanuel Macron said Trump's departure was positive, given the objective to get a ceasefire in the Middle East.

G7 leaders from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the U.S., along with the European Union, had convened in the resort area of Kananaskis in the Canadian Rockies until Tuesday.

Speaking alongside Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney earlier, Trump said the former Group of Eight had been wrong to kick out Russia in 2014 after it annexed Crimea.

"This was a big mistake," Trump said, adding he believed Russia would not have invaded Ukraine in 2022 had Putin not been ejected.

"Putin speaks to me. He doesn't speak to anybody else ... he's not a happy person about it. I can tell you that he basically doesn't even speak to the people that threw him out, and I agree with him," Trump said.

Though Trump stopped short of saying Russia should be reinstated in the group, his comments had raised doubts about how much Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy can achieve when he is schedule to meet the leaders on Tuesday.

"It was a rough start," said Josh Lipsky, a former senior IMF official who now chairs the international economics department at the Atlantic Council.

European nations had wanted to persuade Trump to back tougher sanctions on Moscow.

Zelenskiy said he had planned to discuss new weapons purchases for Ukraine with Trump.

European officials said they hoped to use Tuesday's meeting with Zelenskiy and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and next week's NATO summit to convince Trump to toughen his stance.

In another early sign the group of democracies lacked unity, a U.S. official said Trump would not sign a draft statement calling for de-escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict.

Canada has abandoned any effort to adopt a comprehensive communique to avert a repeat of the 2018 summit in Quebec, when Trump instructed the U.S. delegation to withdraw its approval of the final communique after leaving.

Leaders have prepared several draft documents seen by Reuters, including on migration, artificial intelligence, and critical minerals. None of them have been approved by the United States, however, according to sources briefed on the documents.

Without Trump, it is unclear if there will be any declarations, a European diplomat said.

Carney invited non-G7 members Mexico, India, Australia, South Africa, South Korea and Brazil, as well as Ukraine.

TARIFFS

Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Monday they had finalized a trade deal reached between the two allies last month, making Britain the first country to agree to a deal for lower U.S. tariffs.

Carney said in a statement he had agreed with Trump that their two nations should try to wrap up a new economic and security deal within 30 days.

Trump said a new economic deal with host Canada was possible but stressed tariffs had to play a role, a position the Canadian government strongly opposes.

"Our position is that we should have no tariffs on Canadian exports to the United States," said Kirsten Hillman, Canada's ambassador to Washington.

Source: Reuters

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James Whitman

Political

Middle East Situation

European foreign ministers told their Iranian counterpart in a call on Monday to return to nuclear negotiations with the U.S. and refrain from escalating conflict with Israel, to which Iran's foreign minister said Tehran's priority was to confront Israel for now, according to a French diplomatic source.

Israel launched what it called Operation Rising Lion against Iran's nuclear facilities in the early hours of Friday, just two days before U.S. and Iranian negotiators were due to resume talks to forge a new deal on Iran's nuclear programme.

Israel called it a preemptive strike designed to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Iran has denied plans to develop such weapons and retaliated by launching counterstrikes on Israel.

France, Britain and Germany, known as the E3, are party to the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, which aimed to curb Iran's nuclear programme in return for sanctions lifting.

Last week they put forward a resolution that was approved by the board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency, a U.N. watchdog, which declared Iran in breach of its nuclear non-proliferation obligations.

"The ministers urged Iran to return to the negotiating table as quickly as possible, without preconditions," the source said, calling on Iran to avoid any headlong rush against Western interests.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was quoted by state media saying that he had recalled Iran's seriousness in diplomacy and emphasised that, "Iran has never left the negotiating table, but that (Tehran's) focus at this stage is, of course, to effectively... confront aggression."

France's Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot spoke to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio ahead of the E3's call with Araqchi, the diplomatic source said. The source said the E3 had separately passed messages to Israel urging it to not strike Iranian authorities, infrastructure or civilian populations.

The European powers, who were not part of Iran's nuclear negotiations with the United States, had grown increasingly frustrated by the U.S. strategy in the talks. An initial written proposal from the Trump administration at the end of May was deemed very tough and offered little in return for Iran.

As part of last week's IAEA resolution, European officials had said they could refer Iran to the United Nations Security Council later in the summer to add pressure on Iran if there was no progress in the nuclear talks.

That would be separate to them reimposing UN sanctions, known as the snapback mechanism, before October 18 when the 2015 accord expires.

The Europeans are the only ones who can launch the snapback mechanism, with diplomats saying the three countries had looked to set a final deadline of end of August to launch it.

It was unclear what their policy would now be. French President Emmanuel Macron said on Sunday that given Europe's knowledge of the nuclear dossier, it should be a key protagonist if nuclear talks resume.

Asked about the call, which also included the EU's foreign policy chief, a source familiar with U.S. thinking said Washington was not overly concerned since the U.S. clearly had the biggest role to play in de-escalating the Israel-Iran conflict.

"At the end of the day, there's only going to be one country in the driver's seat of ending the war, and that's going to be the United States, obviously in partnership with Israel," the source said.

"If the world jumps in and it becomes more of a collaborative effort, as long as it's not undermining the foreign policy strategy of the United States or its ally Israel, I'm sure there will be no concerns," the source said.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Political

Middle East Situation

President Donald Trump called for the evacuation of Iran’s capital Tehran on Monday, hours after he urged the country’s leadership to sign a deal to limit its nuclear program and Israel signaled strikes would continue.

“Iran should have signed the ‘deal’ I told them to sign,” Trump wrote in a social media post from a Group of Seven leaders’ summit in Alberta, Canada. “What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”

It wasn’t clear what Trump was referring to but hours earlier at the meeting, Trump had said Iran wanted to make a deal, and “as soon as I leave here, we’re going to be doing something.” He didn’t give any more details.

Israeli officials have said their forces have taken control over much of the Iranian airspace and severely damaged key facilities used in its missile and nuclear programs since the assault was launched Friday, sparking fears of widening conflict in the Middle East.

Earlier Monday, Israel had warned one Tehran district to evacuate in anticipation of a fourth day of strikes, and video footage has shown massive traffic jams as people seek to escape the city.

“They want to stop and continue producing the weapons of death, both the nuclear weapons that threaten our existence and the ballistic missiles, but we are committed to destroying these two threats,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told a press conference Monday, before Trump’s latest comments. “If that can be achieved in another way, please – but we gave it a chance for 60 days,” he added, referring to the period that ended with Israel’s attacks Friday.