Euro’s Rally Faces Inflection Point As It Climbs Toward $1.20

Economic

Forex

Summary:

The euro’s latest rally is approaching a pivotal level that could either stall its momentum or unlock the next leg toward $1.20, a target strategists and traders have circled for months.

After climbing as much as 1.6% in the past three days, the common currency is closing in on $1.17 — a zone that holds the heaviest notional volume in euro-bullish options so far this month, according to Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation data. That makes it a potential inflection point.

A break and hold above $1.17 could open the door for an accelerated push toward $1.20, a level last seen four years ago. If resistance holds, however, expect some profit-taking or flow-rebalancing first.

HSBC strategists increased their year-end forecast for the euro to $1.20 from $1.15 last week as they predict broad dollar weakness in the coming months. Danske Bank A/S analysts reiterated their 12-month euro forecast of $1.20 last month while Deutsche Bank AG strategists see a rally to that level by December.

The euro climbed as high as $1.1641 on Tuesday, its strongest intraday level since October 2021, as easing geopolitical tensions and softer US economic data fueled fresh demand for the common currency. The announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, along with cautious remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, helped spark the latest push.

Money markets are pricing in a total of 59 basis points of Fed easing by year-end, compared with 25 basis points by the European Central Bank. The process of bringing inflation back to 2% is almost over, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said Tuesday, despite some remaining price pressures.

Options markets suggest investors retain conviction in a stronger euro. Risk reversals — which reflect the difference in pricing between bullish and bearish bets — jumped Tuesday by the fourth-largest margin in more than three years, signaling a decisive return of bullish sentiment. The shift followed a brief period in which the dollar found support from rising oil prices.

The broader picture remains constructive. DTCC data shows more than 60% of notional euro options volume this month has favored calls. The euro was trading little changed near $1.1610 on Wednesday.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Economic

Emerging Consensus for Rate Cuts as Trump Gains Unlikely Allies Inside the Fed

The Federal Reserve is facing an unusual degree of internal disagreement over the direction of monetary policy, as senior officials increasingly align with President Donald Trump’s call for lower interest rates. In recent days, Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller, both Trump appointees, have publicly stated their support for policy easing if inflation remains under control.

Bowman’s remarks on Monday marked a clear shift in tone. She emphasized that with limited inflationary pressure and relatively muted price impacts from Trump’s new tariffs, it may be time to recalibrate policy toward neutrality. Her support for a rate cut in the next meeting comes despite earlier Fed consensus to hold steady.

Fed’s Tactical Shift: From Patience to Conditional Readiness

While not all officials have taken as clear a stance, several are now signaling a readiness to act. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said in a Milwaukee event that if tariffs don’t result in significant inflation, monetary easing should be considered a viable option. He hinted that the post-April tariff landscape might not be as disruptive as anticipated.

Chair Jerome Powell, despite Trump's increasingly aggressive personal attacks—including calling him “dumb” and “stubborn”—remains cautious. He reiterated that the Fed prefers to see more summer data before committing to any rate adjustment. Yet even Powell has acknowledged that energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, like the recent Israel-Iran conflict, have so far been short-lived in the past, unlike the structural shocks of the 1970s.

Geopolitical Risks and Energy Prices: Limited Reaction from Fed So Far

The recent U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and a shaky ceasefire agreement with Israel have raised global energy price concerns. Still, Fed officials remain calm. Bowman noted that while commodity prices may rise, weak consumer demand—especially from low-income groups—and stable supply chains are keeping retailers cautious about price hikes.

Powell reinforced this view, stating that U.S. dependence on foreign oil is far lower than in previous decades, reducing the pass-through effects of oil shocks. The Fed sees current events as manageable unless full-scale regional conflict breaks out, which would pose greater risks.

Political Pressure Meets Institutional Independence

Trump’s direct criticism of Powell has escalated, yet Fed officials insist that political interference does not impact policy decisions. Powell, in particular, has repeatedly stated that the central bank will continue to operate independently and base its decisions strictly on economic data.

Nonetheless, market sentiment is tilting toward the expectation of a rate cut. CME Group’s FedWatch tool reflects a rising probability of a policy shift at the July 29–30 meeting. Analysts warn that while current inflation trends are subdued, the Fed must also weigh potential second-round effects of tariffs, wage growth, and geopolitical instability.

As inflation remains modest and the labor market shows resilience, calls for monetary easing—particularly from Trump-aligned officials—are growing louder. The Fed's internal divergence reflects broader tensions between maintaining long-term credibility and responding swiftly to evolving risks. Whether July becomes the turning point for U.S. monetary policy will depend not just on inflation data but also on how much pressure the Fed can resist from both markets and politics.

Source: CNN

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Economic

Commodity

Japan’s Fourth-Largest Economy Wavers as Bento Shops Fall Victim to Soaring Rice Prices

Japan’s bento economy—once a reliable staple for busy office workers and students—is faltering under the weight of stagflation. With core input costs, especially rice, rising at an unprecedented pace, many small businesses are now closing down or facing mounting losses.

According to Teikoku Databank, 22 bento shops declared bankruptcy between January and May 2025—already surpassing last year’s same-period figure. In 2024, a record 52 shops folded, and experts predict that 2025 could set a new high.

Daisuke Iijima, an analyst at Teikoku, commented that “many small bento vendors are barely hanging on,” with most opting to operate at a loss or raise prices despite customer resistance.

From Affordable Meals to Margin Killers: Rice Costs Spark Crisis

Once celebrated for affordability and convenience, bento meals are becoming harder to sustain. Rice—making up the bulk of ingredient costs—has more than doubled in price year-on-year as of May 2025. This steep rise is compressing margins across the board.

Bento consumption had already weakened during the pandemic as remote work reduced foot traffic and customer frequency. Now, a brutal combination of lower demand and spiraling costs is devastating a sector reliant on volume and affordability.

Data shows that in fiscal 2024, 45% of bento shops reported increased profits, but 30% suffered losses, and 22% saw profit declines. Larger chains are weathering the storm thanks to supply chain leverage, but mom-and-pop vendors lack the same financial cushion.

Raising Prices, Losing Customers: A No-Win Dilemma

Many bento sellers have had no choice but to raise prices. However, the speed and scale of price increases still lag behind input inflation. Worse, the bento market is hypersensitive to pricing—customers view it as the cheapest meal option, meaning even slight hikes can reduce demand.

This puts small businesses in a bind: raise prices and risk losing loyal customers, or absorb the costs and risk financial ruin. Iijima warns that “without greater resilience, more small bento shops will inevitably close.”

Uncertainty Over Rice and Consumer Prices

Japan’s inflation rate is expected to hover around 3% in 2025, a moderate figure by global standards but high enough to challenge a deflation-habituated economy. Industry insiders remain split on whether rice prices will normalize or remain elevated in the longer term.

While larger chains are adapting through scale, digital ordering, and diversified menus, many traditional bento shops lack both capital and innovation capability. Unless government or industry-level interventions ease the cost burden—or inflation retreats—the outlook remains bleak for this once-thriving segment of Japan’s food service economy.

Source: JPT

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Economic

Chronic Profit Loss and Transfer Pricing: A Structural Weakness in Vietnam’s FDI Sector

According to Report No. 229/BC-BTC released by the Ministry of Finance, many foreign-invested companies in Vietnam register billions of dollars in capital but contribute minimal equity. Instead, they primarily use debt financing, which inflates financial expenses and depreciation costs, leading to years of reported losses. Experts argue this creates significant space for transfer pricing tactics, allowing firms to shift profits abroad, evade taxes, and erode state revenues.

These manipulative practices are not only a fiscal concern but also distort Vietnam’s investment climate. As capital outflows and tax avoidance persist, the credibility of Vietnam’s FDI environment and its equitable regulatory framework is increasingly at stake.

Regional and Sectoral Imbalances Continue to Undermine Investment Potential

Despite boasting over 43,000 active FDI projects as of May 2025—with over $517 billion in registered capital—the geographical distribution remains lopsided. Most projects are concentrated in industrial hubs like Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, and Binh Duong, while rural and mountainous regions such as the Mekong Delta and Central Highlands attract little attention.

Sectorally, the dominance of manufacturing, real estate, and electricity production continues. Manufacturing alone accounts for over $316 billion in registered capital, or 61.2% of all FDI. This concentration risks unsustainable development, overburdens urban infrastructure, and overlooks the diverse growth potential across sectors like high-tech, renewable energy, and digital services.

Weak Linkages Between FDI and Domestic Firms: Missed Opportunities in Value Creation

The report also highlights the limited integration between FDI firms and local enterprises. While a few foreign firms have helped transfer technology and build human capital, many still rely on importing raw materials and executing only low-value-added stages of production. This restricts knowledge spillovers and local value creation. Localization rates remain modest despite years of policy support for Vietnam’s supporting industries.

Such dynamics trap Vietnam in the low-value end of global supply chains and prevent the domestic private sector from upgrading capabilities. The potential for productivity gains, innovation, and export competitiveness is thus curtailed.

Structural Challenges Behind Inefficient FDI Utilization

Several systemic barriers compound the problem. These include a shortage of industrial land with adequate infrastructure, high logistics costs, uneven labor quality, and weak adaptive capacity among domestic firms. The lack of targeted investment promotion further contributes to misallocation of FDI capital, where large volumes of investment do not translate into commensurate socio-economic gains.

Toward a New FDI Strategy: From Volume to Value

Acknowledging these inefficiencies, Vietnam’s Ministry of Finance has committed to recalibrating its FDI attraction policies. Future FDI strategies will prioritize quality, efficiency, and sustainability over mere project count or capital volume. New criteria will focus on technological spillovers, domestic supply chain integration, environmental responsibility, and long-term economic contributions.

Infrastructure upgrades, labor upskilling, and institutional reforms will form the backbone of Vietnam’s “new-generation FDI” policy. Investment promotion will be more selective, targeting large corporations capable of driving innovation and management excellence into the domestic economy.

Priority sectors identified include high-tech manufacturing, renewable energy, semiconductor production, artificial intelligence, and digital finance. Instead of mass promotion, Vietnam aims for strategic alignment with global supply chain realignment, particularly in light of rising U.S.-China tensions and emerging Indo-Pacific economic dynamics.

While foreign capital continues to play a critical role in Vietnam’s development, the country now faces a turning point. The shift from quantity to quality is not only a policy imperative but also a strategic necessity in a more competitive and uncertain global landscape. To truly capitalize on FDI, Vietnam must close regulatory loopholes, boost domestic enterprise readiness, and build an ecosystem that values long-term, inclusive growth over short-term capital inflows.

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Cryptocurrency

As Bitcoin and other digital assets recover, data shows the sentiment among cryptocurrency investors has returned to a state of greed.

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Is Pointing At Greed Again

The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator made by Alternative that measures the net sentiment held by the average trader in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency spaces.

The index uses the data of the following five factors to determine the market sentiment: trading volume, volatility, market cap dominance, social media sentiment, and Google Trends.

The metric represents the calculated mentality as a score lying between 0 and 100. The former end point corresponds to a state of maximum fear, while the latter one to that of maximum greed.

Here’s what the index says regarding the current sentiment among the investors:

Looks like the value of the metric is 65 at the moment | Source: Alternative

As displayed above, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has a value of 65, which suggests the traders currently share a majority sentiment of greed. This is a notable change compared to yesterday, when the indicator was sitting at 47, meaning that the investor mentality was overall neutral.

The trend in the Fear & Greed Index over the past twelve months | Source: Alternative

The holder sentiment earlier declined as a result of the geopolitical situation surrounding the Israel-Iran conflict. Following the announcement of a ceasefire between the nations, prices bounced back and it would appear that with them, so did the investor mood.

The ceasefire has since been violated, so it’s possible that tomorrow’s Fear & Greed Index would be less bullish. That said, Bitcoin has held surprisingly well despite the news, which could imply that the sentiment may also remain the same.

Historically, BTC and digital assets in general have tended to move in the direction that goes against the expectations of the investors. This means that an overly greedy market makes tops likely, while an extremely fearful one bottoms.

At present, the level of greed in the market isn’t too strong, but the fact that it has seen a notable jump alongside the recovery run could still be to take note off. In the scenario that hype keeps increasing in the coming days, another reversal could turn more probable for Bitcoin and company.

In some other news, the US-based Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net inflows yesterday, 23rd June, as pointed out by the analytics firm Glassnode in an X post.

The data for the netflows associated with the US spot ETFs | Source: Glassnode on X

As displayed in the above graph, the US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of around 598 BTC on this date, despite the geopolitical tensions. “Although the inflows were modest, no major outflows were recorded either, which is notable signal of investor confidence,” notes Glassnode.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has already made recovery beyond the level it was trading at before the plunge, as its price is now back at $106,000.

The asset seems to have shot up during the past day | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView

Source: CoinGecko

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Economic

Middle East Situation

Trump’s Surprise Reversal Undermines Sanctions Doctrine

In a surprising move that sent ripples through diplomatic and financial circles, President Donald Trump declared that China could resume purchasing Iranian oil, marking a sharp deviation from Washington’s years-long policy of maximum pressure on Tehran. His statement, made via Truth Social, came just hours after he announced a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran following recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

The announcement appeared to be made unilaterally, without coordination with the U.S. Treasury or State Department, both of which seemed caught off guard. The Treasury confirmed that sanctions enforcement remains active, signaling confusion within the administration. This lack of internal alignment suggests that the president’s comments may be more rhetorical than a formal policy change.

A Diplomatic Gambit Tied to Trade and Peace

Trump’s apparent olive branch to China — Iran’s top oil customer — seems part of a larger effort to reduce tensions in both the Middle East and U.S.-China trade relations. Analysts suggest the statement might have been aimed at encouraging further cooperation from Beijing amid delicate negotiations over reciprocal tariffs and regional diplomacy.

This possible “carve-out” for China could be interpreted as a goodwill gesture, albeit one that risks undermining U.S. leverage. China has already built covert supply chains for Iranian crude, often disguising its imports as Malaysian or Emirati shipments. Officially, it hasn’t reported Iranian oil purchases since June 2022, yet third-party trackers estimate flows exceed 1 million barrels per day.

Markets React Cautiously as Confusion Reigns

Oil markets saw a modest uptick, with Brent crude rising above $68 per barrel. The increase was muted, likely due to uncertainty about the actual policy implications. Many traders are skeptical, interpreting the president’s post as a one-off political maneuver rather than a green light for unrestrained imports.

Former Treasury officials and geopolitical analysts warned that the inconsistent messaging could reduce the credibility of U.S. sanctions enforcement. If buyers believe the White House is wavering, compliance may erode even without formal changes to the law.

Strategic Risks: Eroding Sanctions Without Security Gains

Trump’s post contradicts his administration’s own policy as recently as last month, when he vowed that any purchase of Iranian oil would trigger secondary sanctions. The U.S. has blacklisted hundreds of tankers and Chinese entities over illicit Iranian oil trading. As of now, none of those measures have been lifted.

This sudden reversal could weaken the U.S. bargaining position in nuclear talks with Tehran and embolden sanctions evasion. It also complicates coordination with allies, particularly in Europe, who have long been urged by Washington to isolate Iran’s energy sector.

Moreover, the White House’s inability to clarify whether the president’s words reflect actual policy exposes a larger issue: inconsistent foreign policy execution at a time of elevated geopolitical risk.

Trump’s abrupt shift on Chinese imports of Iranian oil has confused markets, surprised diplomats, and put U.S. sanctions credibility in question. Whether this is part of a larger strategy to ease tensions or simply political improvisation remains unclear. Without formal clarification or legal revisions, the U.S. sanctions regime remains in place — but its deterrent power may have just taken a serious hit.

Source: Bloomberg

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Economic

Fed Holds Firm Against Political Pressure, Focuses on Data-Driven Policy

In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a measured but resolute message: the Fed is committed to maintaining price stability and will remain cautious before altering its policy stance. Despite rising political pressure, especially from President Trump, Powell reiterated that the central bank’s decisions are independent and will be guided solely by data.

Trump has escalated his public attacks on Powell, accusing him of being "dumb" and "hardheaded" for refusing to cut rates amid rising trade tensions. However, Powell made clear that “politics has no role” in Fed policy, emphasizing, “We’re doing our jobs.”

Tariffs: The Core Uncertainty Behind the Fed’s Policy Delay

The key issue restraining the Fed from acting is uncertainty around the inflationary impact of Trump’s tariff policies. Powell explained that the “ultimate level” and persistence of price increases due to tariffs remain unclear. While short-term effects typically include one-off price hikes, the Fed is watching for signs of sustained inflation acceleration that could justify a policy shift.

Powell warned that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has a duty to “prevent a one-time increase in the price level from becoming an ongoing inflation problem.” He highlighted that inflation is projected to rise modestly in May to 2.3%, with core inflation expected to reach 2.6% — both slightly above the Fed’s 2% target but still not alarming enough to prompt immediate action.

Labor Market Solid, Inflation Risks Balanced — No Rush to Cut

Powell characterized the U.S. economy as “solid,” with employment near full capacity. While inflation remains slightly elevated, he emphasized the Fed’s responsibility to balance the dual mandate of price stability and full employment. “Without price stability, we cannot achieve the long periods of strong labor market conditions that benefit all Americans,” he told lawmakers.

Some Fed officials — including Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller — have suggested that if inflation stays in check, they may support a July rate cut. However, Powell signaled the broader committee’s reluctance, noting that it will take more than one month of data to justify easing.

Market Implications: July Cut Unlikely, September More Probable

The futures market is currently pricing in only a 23% chance of a July rate cut, with stronger odds for a move in September. This aligns with Powell’s assertion that more time is needed to observe the economic fallout from tariffs and ensure inflation doesn’t spiral.

The Fed’s dot plot revealed a divided board: nine officials anticipate zero or one cut in 2025, while the remaining ten foresee two or more cuts. This internal divergence reflects how finely balanced the inflation-growth tradeoff is in the current environment.

Despite rising political heat, Powell’s testimony makes it clear the Fed is focused on its long-term credibility and macroeconomic stability rather than short-term pressure. With inflation data still within a manageable range and uncertainty over tariffs unresolved, the central bank is in no rush to cut rates. Investors and markets should expect the Fed to remain data-dependent, resisting premature action until inflation expectations and global risks become more predictable.