Markets
News
Analysis
User
24/7
Economic Calendar
Education
Data
- Names
- Latest
- Prev












Signal Accounts for Members
All Signal Accounts
All Contests



U.K. Trade Balance Non-EU (SA) (Oct)A:--
F: --
P: --
U.K. Trade Balance (Oct)A:--
F: --
P: --
U.K. Services Index MoMA:--
F: --
P: --
U.K. Construction Output MoM (SA) (Oct)A:--
F: --
P: --
U.K. Industrial Output YoY (Oct)A:--
F: --
P: --
U.K. Trade Balance (SA) (Oct)A:--
F: --
P: --
U.K. Trade Balance EU (SA) (Oct)A:--
F: --
P: --
U.K. Manufacturing Output YoY (Oct)A:--
F: --
P: --
U.K. GDP MoM (Oct)A:--
F: --
P: --
U.K. GDP YoY (SA) (Oct)A:--
F: --
P: --
U.K. Industrial Output MoM (Oct)A:--
F: --
P: --
U.K. Construction Output YoY (Oct)A:--
F: --
P: --
France HICP Final MoM (Nov)A:--
F: --
P: --
China, Mainland Outstanding Loans Growth YoY (Nov)A:--
F: --
P: --
China, Mainland M2 Money Supply YoY (Nov)A:--
F: --
P: --
China, Mainland M0 Money Supply YoY (Nov)A:--
F: --
P: --
China, Mainland M1 Money Supply YoY (Nov)A:--
F: --
P: --
India CPI YoY (Nov)A:--
F: --
P: --
India Deposit Gowth YoYA:--
F: --
P: --
Brazil Services Growth YoY (Oct)A:--
F: --
P: --
Mexico Industrial Output YoY (Oct)A:--
F: --
P: --
Russia Trade Balance (Oct)A:--
F: --
P: --
Philadelphia Fed President Henry Paulson delivers a speech
Canada Building Permits MoM (SA) (Oct)A:--
F: --
P: --
Canada Wholesale Sales YoY (Oct)A:--
F: --
P: --
Canada Wholesale Inventory MoM (Oct)A:--
F: --
P: --
Canada Wholesale Inventory YoY (Oct)A:--
F: --
P: --
Canada Wholesale Sales MoM (SA) (Oct)A:--
F: --
P: --
Germany Current Account (Not SA) (Oct)A:--
F: --
P: --
U.S. Weekly Total Rig CountA:--
F: --
P: --
U.S. Weekly Total Oil Rig CountA:--
F: --
P: --
Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Diffusion Index (Q4)--
F: --
P: --
Japan Tankan Small Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q4)--
F: --
P: --
Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q4)--
F: --
P: --
Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q4)--
F: --
P: --
Japan Tankan Small Manufacturing Diffusion Index (Q4)--
F: --
P: --
Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Diffusion Index (Q4)--
F: --
P: --
Japan Tankan Large-Enterprise Capital Expenditure YoY (Q4)--
F: --
P: --
U.K. Rightmove House Price Index YoY (Dec)--
F: --
P: --
China, Mainland Industrial Output YoY (YTD) (Nov)--
F: --
P: --
China, Mainland Urban Area Unemployment Rate (Nov)--
F: --
P: --
Saudi Arabia CPI YoY (Nov)--
F: --
P: --
Euro Zone Industrial Output YoY (Oct)--
F: --
P: --
Euro Zone Industrial Output MoM (Oct)--
F: --
P: --
Canada Existing Home Sales MoM (Nov)--
F: --
P: --
Euro Zone Total Reserve Assets (Nov)--
F: --
P: --
U.K. Inflation Rate Expectations--
F: --
P: --
Canada National Economic Confidence Index--
F: --
P: --
Canada New Housing Starts (Nov)--
F: --
P: --
U.S. NY Fed Manufacturing Employment Index (Dec)--
F: --
P: --
U.S. NY Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec)--
F: --
P: --
Canada Core CPI YoY (Nov)--
F: --
P: --
Canada Manufacturing Unfilled Orders MoM (Oct)--
F: --
P: --
Canada Manufacturing New Orders MoM (Oct)--
F: --
P: --
Canada Core CPI MoM (Nov)--
F: --
P: --
Canada Manufacturing Inventory MoM (Oct)--
F: --
P: --
Canada CPI YoY (Nov)--
F: --
P: --
Canada CPI MoM (Nov)--
F: --
P: --
Canada CPI YoY (SA) (Nov)--
F: --
P: --
Canada Core CPI MoM (SA) (Nov)--
F: --
P: --


No matching data
Latest Views
Latest Views
Trending Topics
Top Columnists
Latest Update
White Label
Data API
Web Plug-ins
Affiliate Program
View All

No data
European markets were higher on Friday after an appeals court agreed to pause a trade court ruling that had blocked the enforcement of US President Donald Trump's sweeping trade levies.
Equity markets are back to where they were, and the US dollar is 0.5% softer than when a court ruled the majority of US tariffs illegal on Wednesday evening. An appeals court yesterday intervened in favour of White House policy, but it seems like softer US consumption data in the GDP report made its mark. We have more US personal spending data today
Yesterday’s dollar rally didn’t last long. It quickly became clear that the Trump administration would pursue other trade laws to enact its tariffs, and later, the US Court of Appeals proposed a delay in the original court ruling that tariffs were illegal. The suggestion now is that a further presentation of evidence could last up until 9 June in the appeals court.
What weighed on the dollar more yesterday seemed to be the US macro data. Personal consumption got revised down to 1.2% from 1.7% quarter-on-quarter annualised in the first quarter GDP release. And a pick-up in initial claims didn’t help either. In effect, we saw a return to traditional correlations, where US Treasury yields dropped 5bp and the dollar weakened.
Traditional macro correlations could be in store for the dollar today. The focus here is on the April PCE data. Perhaps most important will be the personal spending number, which is expected to soften to 0.2% month-on-month from 0.7%. Any downside miss here would hit the dollar. The market will also be looking at the price data. This is expected to be very benign, with the core deflator still at 0.1% MoM, bringing the year-on-year rate to 2.5% – the lowest since 2021.
This might increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease, at a time when the White House is piling the pressure on Chair Jay Powell to cut rates (note the White House briefing on the Trump-Powell meeting yesterday). The topic of the end of Powell’s term, ending in May 2026, will no doubt start to weigh on the dollar early next year.
Friday is also our day to report on Fed Custody holdings of US Treasuries for foreign official accounts. In the week to Wednesday, these actually rose $10bn. So no evidence this week of a further divestment in US assets. Remember, the Fed thinks it’s hedging, not divestment, that has been driving the dollar lower recently.
DXY could make a run back to 98.70 should personal spending disappoint today.
While EUR/USD may be rallying on the travails of the dollar, the macro support for the euro is not particularly strong. Today, we’ve already seen some soft German retail sales data for April (although the March number was revised higher), and later today, we could see the May harmonised CPI data for Germany returning to 2.0% YoY.
This would mark perfect timing for next week’s European Central Bank meeting, where the market fully prices a 25bp cut in the deposit rate to 2.00%. For reference, the market currently prices 58bp of ECB easing this year versus 50bp for the Fed. That’s broadly in line with our house forecasts and suggests interest rate differentials (which currently suggest EUR/USD should be trading lower) may not be moving much from current levels.
As above, the US personal spending data may be the biggest driver of EUR/USD today and may keep it supported in the confines of a 1.1300-1.1400 short-term range.
Elsewhere, Swedish first-quarter GDP has disappointed at -0.2% QoQ and could bring forward expectations for another Riksbank rate cut – now only expected in September. The news is slightly bullish for EUR/SEK.
Tokyo May inflation data surprised on the upside. At the 3.6% YoY, the ex-food reading was the highest since early 2023. As Min Joo Kang outlines here, the data supports her view that the risk of a Bank of Japan rate hike in July is underpriced by the market. Currently, investors only attach a 14% probability to such an outcome.
A hike in July would certainly support the yen. It would also make it a little less expensive for Japanese holders to FX hedge their US assets. This interesting study on FX hedging suggests those investors from a low interest rate region (i.e., Japan) tend to have lower hedge ratios on US assets. Clearly, a reduction in hedging costs would add to the current narrative that the global investor community wants to raise its dollar hedge ratios. We have a 140-year-end forecast for USD/JPY. But the risks are clearly skewed to the downside here.
Most of this week’s data in the CEE region is due to be released today. We will see GDP data in the Czech Republic and Turkey this morning. In the Czech Republic, this is the second estimate for the first quarter; we shouldn’t see many changes, and the focus will be on the GDP breakdown. The consumer likely remained at the forefront of the economic rebound, while fixed investment remained rather dormant once again. In Turkey, we will only see a flash estimate, where we expect GDP to increase by 2.1% YoY in the first quarter, while there are signs of weakness for the second quarter.
Later today, May inflation will be released in Poland, first in the region as always. Headline inflation should be broadly similar to April at 4.3%, while core inflation probably increased slightly. Upward pressure from core inflation was compensated for by even deeper declines in fuel prices in annual terms, in our view. However, yesterday’s announcement of lower household gas prices pulls roughly 0.3ppt off the inflation profile from July – and that should push inflation towards the National Bank of Poland’s target even faster than we had previously expected.
More interesting will be the second round of the presidential elections in Poland this weekend. Yesterday’s polls show a very tight race with no clear favourite. From a market perspective, the election result will be pivotal for both the future of the current government and the direction of fiscal policy.
The outcome will therefore have a medium-term impact mainly on the bond market, while the impact on FX and rates ahead of the curve should fade quickly regardless of the election winner. Given the declining inflation profile, the NBP should deliver rate cuts in any case, negatively weighing on PLN, whose valuation appears quite tight in our view.
Canada's economy in the first quarter grew faster than expected, data showed on Friday, primarily driven by exports as companies in the United States rushed to stockpile before tariffs by President Donald Trump.
But an increase in imports that led to inventory build-up, lower household spending and weaker final domestic demand indicate that the economy was battling on the domestic front. Economists have warned that as tariffs continue on Canada, this trend will persist.
The gross domestic product in the first quarter grew by 2.2% on an annualized basis as compared with the downwardly revised 2.1% growth posted in the previous quarter, Statistics Canada said.
This is the final economic indicator before the Bank of Canada's rates decision on Wednesday and will help determine whether the central bank will cut or stay pat on rates.
Currency swap markets were expecting around 75% chance the bank would hold its rates at the current level of 2.75%, before the GDP data was released. (0#CADIRPR)
Trump's repeated threats and flip-flops on tariffs since the beginning of the year led to an increase in exports and imports to and from the U.S.
Trump imposed tariffs on Canada in March, first on a slew of products and later specifically on steel and aluminum.
The GDP grew by 0.1% in March after a contraction of 0.2% in February. The economy is likely expected to expand by 0.1% in April, the statistics agency said referring to a flash estimate.
The March growth was primarily driven by a rebound in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction and construction sectors.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the first quarter GDP to expand by 1.7% and by 0.1% in March.
The quarterly GDP figure is calculated based on income and expenditure while the monthly GDP is derived from industrial output.
The tariffs and the uncertainty around them started showing early signs of impact as the final domestic demand, which represents total final consumption expenditures and investment in fixed capital, did not increase for the first time since the end of 2023, Statscan said.
Growth in household spending also slowed to 0.3% in the first quarter, after rising 1.2% in the prior quarter.
The first quarter growth was led by a rise in exports, which jumped by 1.6% after increasing by 1.7% in the fourth quarter of 2024. Business investment in machinery and equipments also increased by 5.3% which pushed the quarterly GDP higher.

White Label
Data API
Web Plug-ins
Poster Maker
Affiliate Program
The risk of loss in trading financial instruments such as stocks, FX, commodities, futures, bonds, ETFs and crypto can be substantial. You may sustain a total loss of the funds that you deposit with your broker. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.
No decision to invest should be made without thoroughly conducting due diligence by yourself or consulting with your financial advisors. Our web content might not suit you since we don't know your financial conditions and investment needs. Our financial information might have latency or contain inaccuracy, so you should be fully responsible for any of your trading and investment decisions. The company will not be responsible for your capital loss.
Without getting permission from the website, you are not allowed to copy the website's graphics, texts, or trademarks. Intellectual property rights in the content or data incorporated into this website belong to its providers and exchange merchants.
Not Logged In
Log in to access more features

FastBull Membership
Not yet
Purchase
Log In
Sign Up