The US Dollar attempts a rise after the beat in Jobless Claims

The number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time, also known as initial jobless claims, has shown a decrease, according to the latest data. The actual figure stands at 227K, a significant drop compared to the forecasted number of 236K.

The lower than expected reading is seen as a positive indicator for the U.S. dollar. Economists and market watchers often view the initial jobless claims data as one of the earliest indicators of the country’s economic health. A lower number suggests fewer layoffs and potentially a more robust job market.

The actual number of 227K is not only lower than the forecasted figure but also represents a decrease from the previous figure of 232K. This decline further emphasizes the improving conditions of the U.S. labor market.

The jobless claims data can fluctuate from week to week, but the latest figures show a promising trend. The decrease in initial jobless claims suggests that fewer people are being laid off, which may indicate a strengthening job market and overall economy.

The drop in initial jobless claims is likely to be seen as a bullish sign for the USD. Economists often interpret a lower than expected jobless claims figure as a positive sign for the U.S. dollar, as it suggests a stronger economy and potentially higher interest rates.

In conclusion, the latest initial jobless claims data is a positive sign for the U.S. economy, with the actual number of claims falling below both the forecasted and previous figures. This data suggests a strengthening labor market, which could bode well for the overall health of the U.S. economy and the strength of the U.S. dollar.

Source: Investing

Source: kitco

US buyers of copper will pay a high price if President Donald Trump pushes ahead with a 50% tariff on refined metal as opposed to copper products such as wiring, according to officials in Chile.

While Chile hasn’t received any formal notification and is unaware of the details of the measure, Mining Minister Aurora Williams noted that US manufacturing is dependent on Chilean copper.

Chile accounts for roughly 70% of copper shipped to the US, with state-owned Codelco representing most of that. Still, it would be US buyers — makers of intermediate forms of copper such as wires, rods and tubes — that would pay the levy. They would have little choice as America relies on imports for almost half of its copper needs.

Chile ships “top-notch refined copper with high levels of traceability, so we are interested in that being duly recognized not just in the US but the whole market,” the minister told reporters in Santiago on Thursday. “Chilean mining production, in all its gambits, has high responsibility, is highly valued and highly necessary for manufacturing in the US.”

Chile has been seeking a tariff exemption in its discussions with US officials, Williams said. “That is a topic that’s on the table.”

US buyers would incur higher costs if the tariff is applied to refined metal, Antofagasta Plc Chief Executive Officer Ivan Arriagada said on the sidelines of the same industry event.

“Undoubtedly that would put pressure on makers of copper products in the US, and so it is a concern,” he said.

For Chilean suppliers like Antofagasta, the US represents about a 10th of total copper sales. China is by far the biggest buyer.

The copper market is likely to remain volatile, Arriagada said. Once tariffs are introduced, consumers in the US would draw from stockpiles that have built up ahead of time, impacting demand.

Beyond that, “copper continues to be in relative scarcity,” he said.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Source: investing

Oil futures sank as the escalating global trade war and the possibility that OPEC+ may halt output hikes flashed warning signs for energy demand.

West Texas Intermediate futures fell as much as 2.6% to trade below $67 a barrel after Bloomberg reported that the cartel is discussing a pause in further production increases from October. The early-stage deliberations are taking place as President Donald Trump unveils a new round of tariffs, including a 50% rate on Brazil, which sends some oil to the US.

Traders are probably interpreting the OPEC+ talks as a sign that “the market may not be able to cope with more oil,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. “We are potentially seeing the risk of an oversupplied market” once the peak demand period ends, he said.

The US-led tariff war has intensified in recent days, and Trump’s latest salvo of demands has overshadowed earlier deals with major trade partners including China and the UK, which had served to mollify investors. Now, the market is facing some of the highest tariff rates in US history, setting the stage for an uncertain period for global growth.

Oil has edged higher this week even after OPEC+ decided over the weekend to raise output by more than expected in August. Energy Aspects said it expects global oil demand to rise by less than 1 million barrels a day in the third and fourth quarters amid pressure from US tariff policies.

Director of Market Intelligence Amrita Sen said the consultant was “worried about the fourth quarter and into 2026 because tariff talks are back.”

Timespreads also show that perceptions of strength in physical market are waning. While WTI’s prompt spread — the gap between its two nearest contracts — is still in a bullish, backwardated structure, the differential narrowed to $1.28 from as high as $1.57 earlier this week.

Meanwhile, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have sunk two cargo vessels and left multiple crew members dead. The escalation has notably failed to inject a risk premium into oil prices, with investors reluctant to buy on geopolitical developments after a standoff between the US and Iran spared energy infrastructure.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Column chart showing the quarterly earnings growth rate for STOXX 600 companies

Source: Reuters