China’s Smartphone Market Slips in Q2 as Huawei Surges and Apple Dips

Economic

Summary:

China’s smartphone shipments declined by 2.4% in Q2 2025, with Huawei gaining significant ground, growing 17.6% year-on-year, while Apple experienced a slight contraction amid growing domestic competition....

Overall Market Contraction Reflects Saturation and Caution

According to Counterpoint Research, smartphone shipments in China fell by 2.4% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year. The decline reflects broader market saturation, subdued consumer sentiment, and heightened competition, particularly in the premium segment. Although the contraction is relatively modest, it underscores the challenges global and domestic brands face in maintaining growth momentum in the world’s largest smartphone market by volume.

The standout performer in this quarter was Huawei, which recorded a 17.6% year-on-year increase in sales. This growth marks a robust recovery for the company, which has navigated through years of supply chain constraints and geopolitical restrictions. Huawei reclaimed its position as China’s top smartphone vendor, capturing an 18.1% market share, outpacing long-time rivals Vivo, Oppo, and Xiaomi.

Huawei’s rebound can be attributed to its emphasis on domestic chip production, an expanding mid-to-high-end portfolio, and strong national brand loyalty. This upward trend indicates that the company is successfully realigning its strategy in response to regulatory headwinds and shifting consumer preferences.

Apple Slightly Down as Competition Intensifies

In contrast, Apple saw its China sales decline by 1.6% year-on-year in the second quarter. While the drop is relatively minor, it points to mounting pressure from local competitors, especially in the premium smartphone segment. The release of the iPhone 16 series, although high-profile, may have struggled to differentiate itself from increasingly advanced offerings by Chinese manufacturers in terms of features and price.

The contraction also suggests that consumer demand for flagship devices remains price-sensitive and brand loyalty can shift quickly, particularly when domestic alternatives gain traction.

The second quarter of 2025 reveals a tightening race for dominance in China’s smartphone market. While total shipments declined slightly, the reshuffling of market share highlights the dynamic nature of competition. Huawei’s resurgence signals a growing appetite for local innovation and design, while Apple’s minor dip reflects the challenges of sustaining brand leadership in a price-sensitive and fast-evolving landscape. Looking forward, the market is likely to remain volatile as both domestic and foreign players adapt to changing consumer behaviors and macroeconomic headwinds.

Source: Reuters

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Damon

Central Bank

Economic

The bottom line:

The latest Bank of Canada BOS Survey reported worsened near-term sales expectations, but improved outlooks and normalizing inflation expectations among businesses in Q2. Conducted from early to late May, the survey covered a period of broad de-escalation in global trade tensions. Results indicated that “fewer businesses are considering extremely negative scenarios in their planning.” Significantly, most participating exporters reported they are not currently subject to tariffs.

This aligns with our analysis that critical exemptions for USMCA-compliant goods are allowing the vast majority of Canadian exports to enter the U.S. duty-free. However, businesses subject to tariffs—including steel and aluminum manufacturers and auto companies—continue to maintain softer outlooks.

Trade-related uncertainty remains elevated, hampering businesses’ hiring and investment plans. Reports of upward pressure on input costs were also common, though firms indicated limited ability to pass these costs to consumers, forcing them to absorb increases through reduced profit margins.

One-year-ahead inflation expectations among businesses eased to below 3% in June, primarily reflecting anticipated disinflationary pressures from softer demand. However, recent CPI data showed contrary trends, with readings reflecting building pressures in domestic services components.

Looking ahead, we maintain that the BoC faces an unusually high hurdle for considering additional rate cuts. The central bank must also account for increased government support, which is better suited to address concentrated weakness in trade-exposed sectors than the blunt tool of lower interest rates.

Our base-case forecast continues to project that the BoC will maintain the overnight rate at current levels going forward.

The details:

In Q2, firms reported a net deterioration in future sales indicators compared with a year ago.This reflects businesses’ expectations of various factors, including generally weak consumer spending and housing activities, soft oil and gas activities stalled by low global oil prices, and a reversal of an export boom earlier this year that was primarily due to tariff front-running.

Capacity issues remained on the backburner. The share of firms reporting challenges with meeting unexpected increases in demand was below the historical average in Q2. The share reporting labour shortages was near a record low.Given expectations of soft demand, reports of abundant capacity, and still-heightened trade uncertainty, most firms continued to either scale back or pause their investment plans in Q2. Hiring intentions were also subdued, although layoffs were less prevalent and mostly viewed as a last resort.

Wage growth expectations have broadly continued to ease, although the same can’t be said about input prices, which were again expected to rise faster over the next 12 months.Businesses also reported difficulties passing on cost increases to consumers, citing weakness in demand as the main hurdle and margin compressions as a result.

Near-term inflation expectations among businesses eased substantially in June to 2.9% from a recent peak of 3.7% in April. This still partly reflects soft demand expectations and the associated disinflationary effect rather than reduced trade uncertainty.In contrast, consumers’ near-term inflation expectations remained stubbornly high in Q2 at above 4%, as reported in the separate survey of consumer expectations.

Longer-term business inflation expectations, including for 2 to 5 years ahead, remained somewhat well-anchored, mostly within the 2.5% – 3% range but were up slightly from a year ago.

Canadian Businesses Reported Improved Outlooks in Q2_1

Source:RBC

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Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Oliver Scott

Ivory Coast national oil company (PETROCI) inaugurates a new quay in Abidjan

Oil prices edged down on Tuesday as concerns the brewing trade war between major crude consumers the U.S. and the European Union will curb fuel demand growth by lowering economic activity weighed on investor sentiment.

Brent crude futures fell 24 cents, or 0.35%, to $68.97 a barrel by 0055 GMT after settling 0.1% lower on Monday.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $66.99 a barrel, down 21 cents, or 0.31%, following a 0.2% loss in the previous session.

The August WTI contract expires on Tuesday and the more active September contract was down 23 cents, or 0.35%, to $65.72 a barrel.

Still, the oil market has struggled to find any direction since the ceasefire on June 24 ending the conflict between Israel and Iran removed concerns about major supply disruptions in the key Middle East producing region.

Since then, Brent has traded in a range of $5.19 and WTI in a range of $5.65 as supply concerns have been alleviated by major producers raising output and investors are increasingly worried about the global economy amid U.S. trade policy changes. However, a weaker U.S. dollar has provided some backing for crude as buyers using other currencies are paying relatively less.

Prices have slipped "as trade war concerns offset the support by a softer (U.S. dollar)," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a note.

Sycamore also pointed to the possibility of an escalation in the trade dispute between the U.S. and the EU over tariffs.

The EU is exploring a broader set of possible counter-measures against the United States as prospects for an acceptable trade agreement with Washington fade, according to EU diplomats. The U.S. has threatened to impose a 30% tariff on EU imports on August 1 if a deal is not reached.

There are also signs rising supply has entered the market as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies unwind output cuts.

Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in May rose to their highest in three months, data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) showed on Monday.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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FXOpen

Forex

Key topics covered in this episode:

RBA Meeting Minutes

On 22 July at 4:30 am GMT+3, the RBA will release its July meeting minutes. Traders will look for clues on why rates were held at 3.85% and insight into the rare 6–3 vote split. Will the minutes reveal growing division within the RBA over the path of rate cuts?

BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida Speech

BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida speaks on 23 July, just ahead of the central bank’s key policy meeting on 30-31 July. Markets will parse his tone for clues on inflation, wages, and a possible rate hike. Will Uchida strike a hawkish note—or signal caution amid yen volatility?

ECB Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference

The ECB’s policy decision on 24 July is expected to keep rates steady at 2.15%, amid trade tensions, a strong euro, and cautious signals from policymakers. Lagarde’s comments may hint at future moves. Will the ECB pause for now but signal a cut in September?

UK Retail Sales

UK retail sales for June drop on 25 July, following a sharp May decline. Markets will watch for signs of continued consumer weakness and its impact on BoE policy. Will another reading push the pound lower and strengthen the case for a rate cut?

Corporate Earnings Statements

A packed earnings week kicks off with Tesla, Alphabet, Intel, and IBM. Investors are eyeing AI progress, ad revenue, and chip demand—all key indicators of tech sector strength. Will these results confirm resilience in big tech, or signal cracks under inflation and slow growth?

Source：FXOpen

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Nathaniel Wright

Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Hadad admitted on Monday that trade negotiations between his country and America could fail to be resolved before an Aug. 1 deadline. That is when President Donald Trump’s administration intends to impose 50% tariffs on various Brazilian exports.

“That can happen,” Haddad said in an interview with local radio station CBN. But he said the giant of South America is still waiting for an official response from Washington to a package of trade proposals that the government presented in May.

President Trump announced the tariffs earlier this month, saying they were in response to what he described as political persecution of former President Bolsonaro, who is currently on trial for conspiracy to commit a coup. Trump also criticized the country for what he described as “unfair” trade practices.

Not only was the announcement a bolt from the blue, but the trade relationship has been relatively stable. The United States has long been an important export market, particularly for commodities like crude oil, semi-finished steel, coffee, orange juice, and airplanes. Still, the US holds a trade surplus with Brazil, which Brazilian officials have argued makes the new tariffs politically motivated and economically unjustified.

Brazil prepares emergency measures for leading export sectors

Haddad said the giant of South America had contingency plans if Washington imposed the tariffs. One of those plans is to expand export markets and lessen reliance on US trade.

The minister said that if we can find other buyers, we could export more than half of our current exports. “But that would take time.”

Industries across the state are preparing for impact. Among the most at risk is Embraer, the world’s third-largest commercial aircraft manufacturer, which depends heavily on America for sales and partnerships. The steel industry, which sells raw and semi-processed materials to American buyers, would also see major disruption.

Haddad said that although government support could be extended to some industries most affected by the tariffs, the efforts would remain fiscally prudent. He emphasized that they would not “blow up the base” and added that any assistance would be strategic and targeted.

The Brazilian private sector is on edge, too. Business leaders worry about how quickly new trade routes and buyers can be secured, especially for highly spatially regulated products such as aircraft or processed foods. Some of the crisis’s next steps could depend on how effectively Soybean Brazil’s diplomatic strategy can ramp up contacts with the US in the next days to prevent a trade conflict.

Lula tells Brazil to keep cool in tariff battle

The Brazilian President Lula Da Silva made it clear with a firm, down-to-earth sense. He warned that the country would retaliate if the tariffs were imposed, but he also said he did not want to start fights where they were unnecessary.

Lula repeated last week at a public event in São Paulo that the state’s sovereignty and economy must be preserved. Should the other side enforce tariffs, he warned, the country will react — but it will always do so in a manner loyal to its values and relationships across the globe.

His new finance minister repeated President Haddad’s statement that Brazil would not attack US businesses operating on its territory.

He also stressed that Brazil’s policy would be based on principle and not provocation; for Brazil, it is not retaliation that it seeks or wants, but fair trade.

Now the Aug. 1 deadline looms heavily. Brazil has a lot on the line. Should discussions continue at an impasse, Latin America’s largest economy must adapt at a corporate level to a new trade landscape that might ravage its commercial alliances and industrial strategies months from now.

Brazil is holding the line, waiting, watching, and preparing for now.

Source: CryptoSlate

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Henry Thompson

Key Points:

● White House's crypto policy report sets to reshape U.S. regulations.

● Potential Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could boost BTC legitimacy.

● Withdrawal of Operation Chokepoint 2.0 to improve crypto firm liquidity.

On July 22, the White House plans to submit its first crypto policy report, as per cryptocurrency reporter Eleanor Terrett in a statement to PANews. The report is anticipated for public release by the end of July.

The report carries significance as it marks a pivot in U.S. regulations, potentially introducing measures such as the establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and easing banking restrictions for crypto firms.

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Regulatory Shifts

The White House Digital Asset Markets Working Group, under David Sacks, excludes traditional banking regulators, reflecting a notably different oversight approach. Potential policy highlights include the formation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the conclusion of Operation Chokepoint 2.0, which previously restricted crypto banking services.

Immediate effects could see bolstered institutional confidence in Bitcoin, increased liquidity for crypto firms, and shifts towards compliance for U.S.-based exchanges. This environment might attract more capital inflows to BTC and responsive positioning by blue-chip assets.

"We're establishing a framework that prioritizes consumer protections while fostering innovation across digital asset markets." — David Sacks, Chair, White House Digital Asset Markets Working Group

Bitcoin Market Dynamics Under Policy Influences

Did you know? The proposed U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could parallel El Salvador's 2021 BTC treasury, which sparked widespread debate over Bitcoin's role as a sovereign asset.

Bitcoin, as of the latest data from CoinMarketCap, shows a market dominance of 59.64%, with a current price of $117,425.27. The market cap stands at 2.34 trillion dollars, with a 24-hour trading volume increase of 21.63%. Over the last 90 days, BTC's value has risen by 25.41%.

Bitcoin(BTC), daily chart, screenshot on CoinMarketCap at 23:49 UTC on July 21, 2025. Source: CoinMarketCap

Insights from Coincu's research team emphasize the potential for the report to enhance institutional participation and positively impact long-term market stability. The anticipated U.S. Bitcoin Reserve may influence global perceptions of crypto assets, aligning with previous trendshifting regulatory moments where clarity drove surges in asset interest.

Source: CryptoSlate

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Bethany Sullivan

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba sought to buy time in office following a second election setback in less than a year. But whether he stays days, weeks or even months, Sunday’s vote made clear that his Liberal Democratic Party needs an overhaul to stay relevant.

Ishiba on Monday vowed to remain in his job even though his LDP-led coalition finished Sunday running a government without a majority in both chambers of parliament for the first time since the party’s founding seven decades ago. While it has ruled Japan for most of that period, younger voters are increasingly turning toward populist smaller parties as rising prices fuel discontent.

“The LDP is a fatigued party and it has a brand problem,” said David Boling, director at the Eurasia Group covering Japan and Asia Trade, former negotiator at the USTR. “To be blunt I think many Japanese and many Japanese voters see it as a party of old men who are out of touch.”

Although the outcome on Sunday wasn’t as bad as some of the early exit polls suggested, Ishiba still failed to clear the low bar he set of retaining a majority in the upper house. That leaves him at risk of becoming yet another footnote in the revolving door of Japanese prime ministers that only managed to last for a year or so.

For now, Ishiba can lean into the fact that he needs to stay on to negotiate a trade deal with the US to help Japan avoid a steep increase in tariffs from Donald Trump’s administration. He cited those talks and other pressing issues at his briefing on Monday.

“I plan to put all of my efforts into finding a solution to the urgent issues we face, including the US tariffs, inflation, natural disasters, and the most complex and severe security environment since the war,” Ishiba said.

‘Political Crisis’

Still, it looks like his days are numbered — even if he has no obvious successor right now and anyone who takes over will face the same problems of getting anything done without control of parliament. Japan’s stocks rose while 10-year government bond futures were down slightly on Tuesday as investors weighed the impact of the vote.

“We’ll see in the next day or two if the dissenters are able to gather enough people to push him out, but this can’t go on,” said Tobias Harris, founder of Japan Foresight, adding that none of the opposition parties want to join a coalition with him. “It all looks like you’ve got a political crisis.”