China’s Producer Deflation Hits 22-Month Low as Domestic Weakness and Tariff Pressures Persist

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

Summary:

China’s producer price index fell 3.3% in May—its sharpest decline in nearly two years—underscoring mounting economic stress from weak domestic demand...

Factory-Gate Prices Fall Sharply Despite Stimulus Measures

China’s producer price index (PPI) declined 3.3% year-on-year in May 2025, marking the steepest deflationary reading in 22 months and exceeding economists’ expectations of a 3.2% drop. The latest data reflects deepening structural strains in the industrial sector, where demand remains subdued and profit margins are compressed by prolonged price competition.

The sharper PPI drop from April’s 2.7% fall highlights continued contraction in input prices and manufacturing output, even as Beijing implements stimulus measures to stabilize growth. The deflationary momentum reinforces investor expectations that more aggressive policy easing may be required in the months ahead.

Weak Consumer Prices Underscore Fragile Demand

Consumer price trends offered little reassurance. The headline consumer price index (CPI) dipped 0.1% from a year earlier in May, matching April’s decline but coming in slightly better than market expectations for a 0.2% fall. On a month-on-month basis, however, CPI fell 0.2%, reversing April’s 0.1% increase.

These figures reflect persistent caution among households amid weak income growth and an uncertain labor market. Despite a series of fiscal and monetary support packages, household spending remains restrained, leading many businesses to rely on discounting strategies to stimulate demand. The government has responded by urging companies—especially in the automotive sector—to end destructive price wars that are contributing to deflation.

Housing Sector and Retail Sentiment Remain Sluggish

Stagnation in China’s housing market continues to weigh on broader consumer confidence. Home prices have failed to rebound meaningfully despite targeted easing measures, and real estate activity remains tepid. The sector’s underperformance not only dampens household wealth perceptions but also slows down related industries such as construction materials, home appliances, and furnishings.

Retail sales growth also slowed in May, underscoring lingering weakness in consumption. Concerns over job security and slow wage growth are encouraging precautionary saving, further weakening domestic demand—a critical component in China’s strategy to transition away from an export-dependent growth model.

Geopolitical Uncertainty Weighs on Industrial Confidence

Trade tensions with the United States have compounded the deflationary pressures. Following recent tariff hikes—peaking at a prohibitive 145% before partial rollback—uncertainty around supply chain stability and export competitiveness has increased. Though a phone call between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping last week suggested potential de-escalation, concrete outcomes remain elusive.

Monday’s resumption of high-level US-China trade talks in London could offer directional clarity, especially around critical minerals, a focal point of current disputes. However, in the absence of a meaningful breakthrough, industrial sentiment may remain depressed, particularly among exporters and manufacturers reliant on US market access.

Core Inflation Shows Limited Resilience

Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and fuel prices, rose 0.6% in May, edging up slightly from April’s 0.5%. While the uptick suggests some underlying price stability, it remains far below the People’s Bank of China’s long-term inflation target. As such, it is unlikely to dissuade policymakers from further easing if deflation persists across key sectors.

China’s deepening producer deflation and stagnant consumer prices present a formidable challenge to policymakers aiming to engineer a sustainable recovery. With domestic demand faltering and external trade risks unresolved, the pressure is mounting on the central bank and fiscal authorities to implement more decisive, targeted stimulus.

The persistent decline in factory-gate prices—paired with weak retail and housing data—suggests that without renewed policy action, deflationary forces could become entrenched, further undermining economic momentum. The upcoming trade talks and the Lujiazui Forum later this month will serve as critical moments for Beijing to signal its next move in countering these mounting headwinds.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

RBI’s Aggressive Rate Cut Sparks Optimism in Rate-Sensitive Sectors

Indian benchmark indices are set to continue their upward momentum on Monday after the Reserve Bank of India delivered a larger-than-anticipated 50 basis point cut to its repo rate, alongside a 100 basis point reduction in the cash reserve ratio (CRR). This surprise monetary easing signals the central bank’s heightened focus on boosting liquidity and stimulating economic activity amid a globally uncertain environment.

The policy shift is already yielding positive equity reactions, with the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex having gained approximately 1% each on Friday. According to Sandeep Bagla, CEO of Trust Mutual Fund, the RBI’s move has created tailwinds for growth-oriented sectors and may accelerate capital flows into rate-sensitive industries such as real estate, auto, and banking.

Gift Nifty Futures Signal Strong Market Open

Gift Nifty futures were trading at 25,179 as of 7:35 a.m. IST, indicating a higher open above Friday’s close of 25,003.05. The upward momentum in futures reflects heightened investor confidence following the RBI's policy announcement and aligns with broad-based strength in global markets.

Indian equities are also benefiting from a supportive global macro backdrop. Asian markets are trading higher, tracking gains in Wall Street after the latest U.S. non-farm payrolls report exceeded expectations. The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, allaying fears of a slowdown and keeping recession concerns at bay for now. As a result, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index rose 0.5%, mirroring this sentiment.

Bond markets saw a moderate rise in U.S. Treasury yields, indicating a recalibration of rate cut expectations by the Federal Reserve—but the reaction has remained relatively contained, suggesting markets remain focused on near-term growth stabilization.

India-U.S. Trade Talks Show Encouraging Signs

On the trade front, negotiations between Indian and U.S. officials appear to be gaining traction. Both sides are reportedly working toward consensus on tariff reductions in key sectors, particularly agriculture and automobiles, with the aim of finalizing an interim agreement ahead of a July 9 deadline. A successful deal could help reduce trade friction and enhance investment confidence in Indian manufacturing and exports.

Robust Institutional Inflows Support the Rally

Strong institutional participation further bolstered Friday’s rally. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were net buyers, investing ₹10.1 billion ($118 million), while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) showed even greater enthusiasm, with net purchases amounting to ₹93.42 billion. These inflows signal both global and local investor confidence in India's macroeconomic trajectory, particularly in light of policy support and improving global trade prospects.

With aggressive rate easing from the RBI, improving global macro indicators, and constructive trade dialogue with the United States, Indian markets enter the new week with solid bullish momentum. While near-term gains are expected to continue, investors will remain attentive to inflation data and the evolving global trade landscape as potential catalysts for further revaluation.

Source: Reuters

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Regional Markets React Positively to Labor Data and Diplomatic Signals

Asian markets opened the week on a positive note, with broad-based gains across key indices following stronger-than-expected US employment figures. MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.5%, led by a 1.3% surge in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, which briefly crossed the 24,000-point threshold for the first time in over two months. Japan’s Nikkei added 0.9%, echoing Wall Street’s Friday rally.

The rebound in equities comes as investors interpret May’s US job creation—139,000 positions added—as a sign of labor market resilience, alleviating fears that President Trump’s aggressive tariff regime is significantly harming economic fundamentals. While job growth slowed from April’s revised 147,000 figure, it exceeded the consensus forecast of 130,000, prompting a recalibration of interest rate expectations and bolstering risk appetite.

Dollar Retreats Slightly as Trade Diplomacy Gains Focus

Currency markets reflected improved sentiment, with the US dollar losing 0.3% against the Japanese yen to 144.39, partially reversing Friday’s 0.9% surge. The euro strengthened modestly to $1.1422. The softening of the dollar mirrors a shift in investor positioning ahead of renewed trade talks between the US and China in London.

The diplomatic overture follows a rare direct call between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping, raising hopes for progress in ongoing disputes—particularly over access to critical minerals, a sector dominated by China. The US delegation will include Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, while China will be represented by Vice Premier He Lifeng.

Kyle Rodda of Capital.com noted that "trade policy will remain the big macro uncertainty,” but acknowledged that any momentum in the talks could boost markets further. The resumption of structured dialogue has tempered short-term volatility, although no breakthrough is yet expected.

Investor Optimism Balanced Against Domestic US Tensions

Despite the tailwinds from economic and diplomatic developments, sentiment remains tempered by political tensions within the US. A confrontation in Los Angeles over immigration policy led President Trump to deploy the National Guard, introducing fresh event risk to the broader market outlook.

Jeff Ng of SMBC noted that while progress in trade discussions could offer further support to equities, investors remain alert to potential disruptions stemming from social unrest. He emphasized that markets are experiencing “mixed fortunes,” with optimism over trade and data offset by domestic instability.

Commodity Markets Steady Ahead of Key Data Releases

Gold prices slipped 0.2% to $3,303.19 an ounce, continuing a retreat from recent highs as investors rebalanced portfolios away from safe-haven assets. US crude oil remained largely unchanged at $64.56 a barrel following a two-day rally, as traders awaited further developments from both the trade front and inflation data.

Attention now turns to upcoming US inflation data due Wednesday, which is expected to shape expectations for future Federal Reserve policy moves. With the Fed signaling caution and no urgency to cut rates, markets are closely watching whether May’s inflation figures will shift the current trajectory.

Monday’s uptick in Asian equities reflects a cautious return of investor confidence, buoyed by decent US employment figures and the symbolic resumption of US-China trade talks. However, the market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments and domestic unrest in the US. The outlook for the rest of the week hinges on inflation data and the outcome—or at least the tone—of the London negotiations, which could determine whether the recent equity rally has room to run or faces another bout of volatility.

Source: Reuters

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Commodity

China Opens Door to Rare Earth Exports Amid Diplomatic Pressure

On June 7, China’s Ministry of Commerce declared it would expedite the review and licensing process for rare earth exports to qualified companies within the European Union. The move follows mounting pressure from EU governments and industry leaders, who have raised concerns over supply disruptions stemming from Beijing’s earlier export restrictions.

Beijing emphasized its respect for the EU’s concerns and affirmed its intent to establish a dedicated channel to fast-track eligible export applications. The decision comes as part of broader efforts to maintain constructive trade dialogue and stabilize key material flows amid growing geopolitical complexity.

Strategic Role of Rare Earths and China's Market Dominance

Rare earth elements are indispensable to a wide range of advanced technologies, from electric vehicles and wind turbines to semiconductors and military systems. China currently accounts for approximately 90% of global rare earth supply, giving it outsized influence over a resource that underpins strategic industries worldwide.

The EU, lacking significant domestic alternatives and faced with limited global suppliers, remains highly vulnerable to any disruptions in China's export policies. Since Beijing imposed tighter controls on rare earth exports in April—targeting seven elements and associated materials, including magnets—European manufacturers have reported delays and production uncertainty in sectors such as clean energy, defense, and electronics.

From Restriction to Recalibration: A Gradual Shift in Policy

China’s initial restrictions, viewed as retaliatory measures in response to US tariffs, triggered broad international criticism. In April, Beijing tightened controls on rare earth magnet exports, citing national security and trade reciprocity. However, signs of policy recalibration emerged in May, when China approved a limited batch of export licenses.

The latest announcement indicates that China is now willing to expand this flexibility, at least toward the European Union. It suggests a strategic recalibration, possibly aimed at reducing trade friction with key global partners while retaining leverage in its broader disputes with the United States.

Global Industry Response and Remaining Uncertainty

Industry representatives from the US, India, Japan, and the EU have voiced concern over China’s restrictive rare earth policies, arguing that constrained access could paralyze key manufacturing sectors and hinder innovation. While China’s willingness to re-engage with European importers marks a positive development, the broader uncertainty surrounding long-term supply reliability remains unresolved.

The move could provide temporary relief to European firms, but analysts caution that any resumption of exports remains vulnerable to political shifts and further trade escalations. Supply chain planners across Europe continue to advocate for diversification strategies, including investment in domestic rare earth processing and partnerships with alternative sources in Africa and Australia.

China’s offer to expedite rare earth exports to the EU reflects an attempt to ease tensions while maintaining control over a strategically vital supply chain. Although the gesture may stabilize short-term access for European manufacturers, it underscores the fragility of global dependency on a single supplier. The episode highlights the urgency for supply chain resilience and the need for sustained diplomatic coordination to ensure the uninterrupted flow of critical raw materials in an increasingly multipolar trade landscape.

Source: CNBC

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China–U.S. Trade War

New Tariffs Target Key Sectors Amid Rising Trade Pressures

In a significant policy shift to defend its strategic industries, India’s Ministry of Finance has officially imposed anti-dumping duties on a range of imported products, including vitamin A Palmitate and insoluble sulphur. The decision, grounded in recommendations by the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR), follows investigations confirming that these imports have inflicted substantial harm on domestic producers.

The move marks a proactive response to growing concerns about unfair pricing practices, especially from China and other key trade partners, and comes as part of India's broader strategy to reinforce economic self-reliance and insulate local industries from volatile global supply chains.

Details of the Tariff Measures

The imposed duties include a rate of up to $20.87 per kilogram on vitamin A Palmitate imported from China, the EU, and Switzerland. This compound plays a critical role in the pharmaceutical, nutritional supplement, and animal feed sectors. In parallel, insoluble sulphur—a vital component in tire manufacturing and industrial rubber production—faces the same tariff level when sourced from China and Japan.

These tariffs are set to remain in effect for a period of five years, providing a buffer for domestic firms to recalibrate their production capabilities and enhance competitiveness. The Indian government emphasized that the primary goal is to restore fair market conditions and prevent local manufacturers from being driven out of key markets due to dumping practices.

Aligning with Global Trade Realignment and Strategic Resilience

Analysts interpret this move as aligned with a wider global pattern of recalibrating trade policies amid supply chain disruptions and geopolitical fragmentation. Similar to measures seen in the United States and the EU, India's decision reflects growing resistance to overdependence on imported raw materials—particularly those perceived as underpriced or subsidized by exporting countries.

This trade posture also reinforces Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s "Aatmanirbhar Bharat" (Self-Reliant India) initiative, which aims to nurture domestic manufacturing and reduce vulnerability to global economic shocks. By targeting inputs crucial to health, agriculture, and manufacturing sectors, India is prioritizing resilience in industries considered vital to long-term national growth and strategic autonomy.

Expected Impacts on Domestic Industry and Global Trade Relations

The introduction of anti-dumping tariffs is expected to give Indian manufacturers a much-needed reprieve, especially in sectors where price competition from foreign imports has stifled local capacity expansion. The protective buffer could incentivize investments in modernization, innovation, and scale-up—ultimately improving productivity and economic contribution.

However, while these measures may benefit local firms, they could also add to trade tensions, particularly with China and the EU, which are likely to scrutinize the legality and scope of India’s tariff decisions under WTO frameworks. How these countries respond could influence future bilateral trade relations and affect negotiations in ongoing trade agreements.

India’s imposition of targeted anti-dumping tariffs illustrates a delicate balancing act between shielding domestic interests and maintaining open trade dynamics. While the measures address immediate concerns of market distortion and industrial strain, their long-term success will hinge on how effectively domestic firms leverage the protection to build sustainable competitive advantage. As global supply chains continue to fragment, India’s focus on strategic trade defense signals a deepening commitment to industrial sovereignty and economic resilience.

Source: The Economic Times

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Official Default Signals Escalating Economic Pressures

Ukraine has formally defaulted on $2.6 billion in GDP-linked bonds—financial instruments structured during the 2015 debt restructuring program that promised payments if GDP growth exceeded 3% annually. The missed payment, due on June 2, 2025, marks a critical financial inflection point for the country. It lays bare the immense fiscal strain caused by the prolonged conflict with Russia, even as Kyiv tries to rebuild its economic credibility and resilience.

While this default might have appeared abrupt to the investment community, Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance defended the move as part of a broader long-term debt sustainability strategy. According to an official statement, the government’s priority is not to service performance-linked debt at the cost of reconstruction efforts. The focus, they insist, must be placed on stabilizing the economy and ensuring that public resources are channeled toward war recovery and structural rebuilding.

GDP-Linked Instruments: Growth or Liability?

The default revolves around a unique form of debt: GDP-linked warrants issued in 2015. These instruments were designed to provide additional payments to bondholders if Ukraine’s economy outperformed baseline forecasts. Ironically, despite the devastation of war, Ukraine's GDP rebounded by 5.3% in 2023, technically triggering the obligation. However, Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko criticized this metric as misleading, pointing out that the increase merely reflects a fragile recovery from a 30% contraction the year prior. He argued that the terms were crafted for peacetime conditions and should no longer apply under the current wartime context.

Marchenko’s remarks underscore the tension between economic data and on-the-ground realities. What appears as a recovery in statistical terms can, in wartime conditions, still represent severe human and fiscal hardship. The default, therefore, is framed as a rational choice rather than a breach of responsibility.

Creditor Talks Collapse Amid Strategic Reprioritization

Despite extensive negotiations, Ukraine has not reached a new agreement with the international bondholders holding these GDP warrants. Investors expressed disappointment over Kyiv’s decision but remained open to renewed discussions. This deadlock reveals the structural complexities of reconciling short-term national survival with long-term financial commitments. The issue goes beyond contractual disputes—it reflects a deeper dilemma faced by wartime economies navigating between sovereign agency and creditor confidence.

The International Monetary Fund has issued stark warnings regarding the default’s potential to disrupt Ukraine’s financial stability. The IMF’s current $15.5 billion stabilization package, as well as a separate $20 billion agreement with sovereign bondholders, could face heightened risk. These mechanisms are critical to maintaining basic state functions during wartime, including infrastructure upkeep and defense spending. Any erosion in creditor trust could tighten Ukraine’s access to concessional lending and erode the multilayered support system sustaining its wartime economy.

The IMF’s caution is not just technical—it signals the broader systemic risks of unresolved sovereign disputes. In Ukraine’s case, the default may not result in immediate capital flight, but it could undermine investor expectations of post-war repayment reliability.

External Dependence and Future Rebuilding Capacity

Ukraine’s default takes place at a time when its economy is highly dependent on external grants and soft loans. This dependence is not new but is now more pronounced, given the destruction of productive capacity and the need for large-scale reconstruction. While the war has created sympathy and unprecedented international support, continued financial credibility is essential for Ukraine’s long-term recovery.

By opting not to honor the GDP-linked payment, Ukraine has sent a signal that recovery imperatives override previous financial commitments, especially those perceived as outdated or misaligned with current realities. However, such decisions inevitably raise questions about the country’s ability to engage international markets when reconstruction accelerates.

A Strategic Default with Long-Term Consequences

Ukraine’s decision to default on $2.6 billion of GDP-linked bonds is emblematic of the tough trade-offs that war economies must navigate. While Kyiv insists that prioritizing domestic recovery is imperative, the implications for investor confidence and multilateral aid are significant. The challenge ahead lies in re-establishing a balance between national sovereignty in fiscal management and maintaining constructive relations with global creditors.

This default could shape the future framework for how wartime economies restructure debt—especially when recovery is coupled with conditional debt instruments. For Ukraine, the path forward will require not only diplomatic finesse but also carefully managed transparency to restore the financial trust necessary for its post-war economic revival.

Source: Bne

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Revised Figures Suggest Less Severe Downturn

Japan's Cabinet Office on Monday revised its preliminary estimate of first-quarter GDP, showing the economy contracted at a slower annualized rate of 0.2% rather than the previously reported 0.7%. This change stems mainly from modest gains in private consumption and inventory accumulation, hinting at underlying resilience in the domestic sector. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy now appears flat in real terms, instead of the 0.2% contraction initially reported.

While the revision slightly eases immediate concerns, it does little to alter the broader narrative of a fragile economy entering a period of heightened uncertainty. The revised data precedes the implementation of new US tariff measures on Japanese exports, particularly in the automotive sector, which casts a long shadow over the coming quarters.

Consumption Offers a Glimmer, But Business Investment Slips

Private consumption—accounting for more than half of GDP—was revised upward to a 0.1% increase, from an initial reading of zero growth. Though small, the improvement reflects a cautious recovery in household spending. However, capital expenditure figures were revised downward to a 1.1% gain from the earlier estimate of 1.4%, missing economists’ expectation of 1.3%. This discrepancy suggests that businesses are beginning to pull back slightly amid mounting external pressures.

Additionally, an upward revision in private inventories contributed to reducing the overall contraction, indicating firms may be stockpiling in anticipation of potential supply chain disruptions or cost pressures linked to trade policy shifts.

External Demand Continues to Detract from Growth

Despite domestic demand contributing positively to growth (adding 0.8 percentage point), external demand continued to exert a drag, subtracting 0.8 percentage point from overall GDP—unchanged from the preliminary estimate. This persistent imbalance highlights Japan’s vulnerability to trade-related shocks, particularly from the US, which remains its largest export market.

With a 24% tariff on Japanese goods looming in July unless exemptions are granted, and a separate 25% levy targeting the auto industry under discussion, Japanese exporters face a turbulent road ahead. The automotive sector, a cornerstone of Japan’s industrial output and employment, is at the center of negotiations.

Tariff Fears and Monetary Policy Implications

Analysts and policymakers are growing increasingly concerned that renewed trade tensions will further complicate Japan’s fragile growth environment. Kazutaka Maeda from Meiji Yasuda Research Institute noted that the scale of the automotive industry would make it politically difficult for the US to offer significant concessions, thereby extending the negotiation timeline and associated uncertainty.

For the Bank of Japan, this presents a policy dilemma. Although the central bank is scheduled to meet early next week, Monday’s revision is unlikely to materially influence its monetary stance. According to Nomura’s Uichiro Nozaki, the BOJ remains more concerned about the outcome of trade talks and their subsequent impact on exports and inflation expectations.

The central bank has cautiously sought to normalize monetary policy, but geopolitical risks—particularly those tied to tariffs—continue to derail momentum and suppress the likelihood of policy tightening in the near term.

While the smaller-than-expected GDP contraction provides marginal relief, it does not meaningfully alter the trajectory of Japan’s economy. The combination of weak external demand, modest domestic recovery, and impending tariff threats underscores a fragile macroeconomic environment. Until clarity emerges from the US-Japan trade negotiations, policymakers and investors are likely to remain defensive, keeping the Bank of Japan on a cautious path and delaying any substantive shift in policy direction.

Source: Reuters

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China’s Producer Deflation Hits 22-Month Low as Domestic Weakness and Tariff Pressures Persist

Factory-Gate Prices Fall Sharply Despite Stimulus Measures

Weak Consumer Prices Underscore Fragile Demand

Housing Sector and Retail Sentiment Remain Sluggish

Geopolitical Uncertainty Weighs on Industrial Confidence

Core Inflation Shows Limited Resilience

Source: Reuters

Indian Markets Poised for Gains as RBI Stimulus and Global Optimism Lift Investor Sentiment

RBI’s Aggressive Rate Cut Sparks Optimism in Rate-Sensitive Sectors

Gift Nifty Futures Signal Strong Market Open

Robust Institutional Inflows Support the Rally

Source: Reuters

Asian Equities Rise as Dollar Softens Ahead of US-China Trade Talks

Regional Markets React Positively to Labor Data and Diplomatic Signals

Dollar Retreats Slightly as Trade Diplomacy Gains Focus

Investor Optimism Balanced Against Domestic US Tensions

Commodity Markets Steady Ahead of Key Data Releases

Source: Reuters

China Signals Readiness to Resume Rare Earth Exports to EU Amid Supply Chain Tensions

China Opens Door to Rare Earth Exports Amid Diplomatic Pressure

Strategic Role of Rare Earths and China's Market Dominance

From Restriction to Recalibration: A Gradual Shift in Policy

Global Industry Response and Remaining Uncertainty

Source: CNBC

India Imposes Anti-Dumping Tariffs on Strategic Imports from China, Japan, and the EU

New Tariffs Target Key Sectors Amid Rising Trade Pressures

Details of the Tariff Measures

Aligning with Global Trade Realignment and Strategic Resilience

Expected Impacts on Domestic Industry and Global Trade Relations

Source: The Economic Times

Ukraine’s $2.6 Billion Default: Financial Vulnerability Amid the Turmoil of War

Official Default Signals Escalating Economic Pressures

GDP-Linked Instruments: Growth or Liability?

Creditor Talks Collapse Amid Strategic Reprioritization

External Dependence and Future Rebuilding Capacity

A Strategic Default with Long-Term Consequences

Source: Bne

Japan’s Q1 GDP Contraction Softens, but Tariff Worries Keep Recovery Outlook Clouded

Revised Figures Suggest Less Severe Downturn

Consumption Offers a Glimmer, But Business Investment Slips

External Demand Continues to Detract from Growth

Tariff Fears and Monetary Policy Implications

Source: Reuters

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