BOJ’s Dovish Member Holds Off on Adding to December Hike Bets

Forex

Economic

Summary:

Those developments brought closer market attention to Noguchi's view after his speech in September came as a surprise, especially after he voted against the rate hikes in March and July last year.

The Bank of Japan's dovish board member Asahi Noguchi refrained from adding fuel to growing market speculation over a December rate hike by broadly taking a neutral stance, stressing the importance of acting at the right time.

"It is necessary for the bank, as a central bank, to carefully examine how various economic channels ultimately affect economic activity and prices and to use the policy interest rate as a tool to adjust the degree of monetary accommodation as appropriate," he said Thursday in a speech to local business leaders in Oita, southwestern Japan.

The remarks suggest a softening of his recent more hawkish tone after his speech in September surprised traders by pointing to how the need to adjust rates is rising "more than ever." Following a string of hawkish signals from some of his fellow board members in recent weeks, Noguchi's comments Thursday likely help the bank avoid being locked into a December move.

The most realistic approach for policy is to set a certain benchmark as the range for where the neutral rate is thought to lie, and then raise rates incrementally over time while monitoring the impact on the economy and prices, said Noguchi.

"This is what I consider to be the measured, step-by-step approach to policy adjustments that the bank should pursue," the former economics professor said.

Last week, board members Junko Koeda and Kazuyuki Masu helped encourage market speculation over a hike approaching next month. Koeda said the bank should normalize policy further without hinting if the next move should come in December. Meanwhile Masu said that the timing of a hike is approaching in an interview with the Nikkei.

That indicated at least four of the central bank's nine board members are now ready to support a rate hike, after two members already dissented against keeping rates on hold in September and October.

Those developments brought closer market attention to Noguchi's view after his speech in September came as a surprise, especially after he voted against the rate hikes in March and July last year.

Traders see about a 53% chance for the BOJ to increase its policy rate from 0.5% when it delivers its next decision on Dec. 19. The probability goes up to roughly 86% by January, according to the overnight swaps index.

The BOJ currently expects its price goal to be achieved in the second half of its three-year projection period that runs through March 2028. If that outlook is realized, the bank should adjust rates at an appropriate pace to align with that time line, Noguchi said.

"Problems are likely to arise if the pace of policy adjustment is either too fast or too slow," he said.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

US-South Africa Relations Hit New Low

In a provocative social media post, President Trump declared he would exclude South Africa from the upcoming G-20 summit, stating the country “is not worthy of membership anywhere.” He also announced the immediate termination of all US payments and subsidies to South Africa. The decision marks a dramatic downturn in relations between Washington and Pretoria, already strained by months of accusations and diplomatic snubs.

Trump’s repeated allegations that South Africa is committing genocide against White Afrikaners and seizing land without compensation have been widely criticized as unfounded. These claims were amplified during South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s visit to Washington in May, where Trump reportedly played a video montage to press his point a move seen as diplomatically confrontational.

Pretoria Responds with Defiance

The South African presidency called Trump’s comments “regrettable” and “insulting,” rejecting what it described as misinformation and distortion. Ramaphosa’s office emphasized that South Africa remains a committed and constructive G-20 member and urged the international community to uphold multilateralism and equal participation.

It is unclear whether Trump can unilaterally block South Africa’s participation in the G-20 summit. Traditionally, all members must agree on changes to the group’s composition. South African officials have expressed concern that the US may attempt to expel the country altogether, though such a move would require consensus from other member states.

Summit Fallout and Diplomatic Tensions

Tensions peaked during the recent G-20 summit hosted by South Africa, which the US boycotted. The South African government also refused to allow a lower-ranking US diplomat to receive the ceremonial G-20 handover, opting for a quiet exchange between diplomats instead. The rift suggests a broader erosion of US-Africa relations under Trump’s leadership.

Trump’s unilateral approach to multilateral institutions may undermine the G-20’s foundational principle of consensus and equal participation. If South Africa is excluded, it could spark broader debate among member states about the politicization of international platforms. With no clear enforcement mechanism and other nations likely to oppose the move, Trump’s declaration may face both legal and diplomatic pushback.

The US-South Africa diplomatic row reflects growing global tensions over sovereignty, misinformation, and leadership in international forums. As South Africa vows to maintain its G-20 role, the world watches whether Trump’s threats will fracture one of the globe’s key economic platforms or galvanize resistance among its members.

Source: Bloomberg

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Michelle

Political

Commodity

Oil prices fell on Thursday on expectations of a Ukraine‑Russia ceasefire which could pave the way for the unwinding of Western sanctions against Russian supply, though trading was set to remain thin due to the US Thanksgiving holiday.

Brent crude futures shed 21 cents, or 0.3%, to US$62.92 (RM259.90) a barrel as of 0108 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 21 cents, or 0.4%, to US$58.44 a barrel.

Both contracts settled about 1% higher on Wednesday, as investors assessed oversupply risk and the prospect of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal.

US envoy Steve Witkoff is set to travel to Moscow next week with other senior US officials for talks with Russian leaders on a possible plan to end the nearly four-year-old war in Ukraine, the deadliest in Europe since World War Two.

Still, Russia will make no big concessions on a peace plan, a senior Russian diplomat said on Wednesday, after a leaked recording of a call involving Witkoff showed he had advised Moscow on how to pitch to US President Donald Trump.

"Any ceasefire will reduce perceived supply risks tied to US sanctions on Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil," Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar said in a client note, adding that the sanctions, which took effect on Nov 21, have already impacted Russia's oil and refined product exports.

"A Ukraine‑Russia deal should see Brent fall to US$60 a barrel relatively quickly," Dhar said, noting that a ceasefire would also allow Russian refinery activity to normalise as Ukraine's drone attacks would stop.

A larger-than-expected rise in US crude inventories also weighed on the market.

US crude inventories climbed 2.8 million barrels to 426.9 million barrels last week, as imports rose to an 11-week high, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Analysts had expected a 55,000 barrel rise.

US energy firms cut the number of oil rigs by 12 to 407 this week, their lowest since September 2021, energy services firm Baker Hughes also said on Wednesday, a sign that the market is well-supplied.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPec+) are likely to leave output levels unchanged at a meeting on Sunday, three Opec+ sources told Reuters on Tuesday. Some members of the group, which pumps about half the world's oil, have been raising production since April to gain market share.

Offering some support to crude prices were rising expectations for a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December. A lower rate typically stimulates economic growth and bolsters demand for oil.

Source: Theedgemarkets

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

A Historical Engine of Growth Under Pressure

For decades, property investment in New Zealand was a cornerstone of household wealth and a driver of national economic growth. However, the rapid rise in house prices during the pandemic fueled by government stimulus and low interest rates was followed by a sharp correction. Between late 2021 and now, average property values have plunged nearly 20%, and in some cities by up to 30%. Despite minor recoveries, prices remain about 15% below their peak, leaving the housing market in an uncharacteristically prolonged slump.

Housing’s historical strength has become a weakness. With over half the nation’s household wealth tied to real estate, the sharp fall in prices has depressed consumption and private investment. ANZ and Westpac economists highlight that housing’s stagnation has weighed heavily on GDP, contributing to three contractions in the past five quarters. Meanwhile, high unemployment, slow population growth, and cautious government spending have constrained demand.

The New Reality: Slower Gains and Investor Retreat

Gone are the days of 7% annual returns. Even with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) slashing rates to 2.25% a 3.25 percentage point drop since mid-2024 analysts only predict modest capital gains of 3.8% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027. Cotality reports that investor activity is down, with multi-property buyers falling from 39.5% to 35.9% of the market. High inventory and weak sentiment have made house flipping unprofitable, and many investors are now sitting on the sidelines.

The central bank has attempted to revive the market with rate cuts and relaxed lending rules, while the government remains committed to making housing more affordable. However, these measures have yet to restore market momentum. A shift in sentiment is also underway: households are slowly adjusting to the idea that housing may no longer deliver the capital gains they once expected.

Market Outlook: A Fragile Path to Recovery

With 33,588 homes listed for sale in October up 75% from the 2021 peak supply remains well above average. While first-home buyers are cautiously returning, overall market activity remains subdued. Economists like Jarrod Kerr argue that any return to moderate home price growth (2–5%) could help revive consumer confidence, but this depends on broader economic recovery.

The recent housing downturn may signal more than a temporary correction. While RBNZ’s chief economist Paul Conway stops short of calling it a structural shift, early signs suggest New Zealand may be entering a “new normal” of modest, volatile returns. In a country where property once meant prosperity, a cultural and economic reckoning may be just beginning.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Blue River

Forex

Technical Analysis

GBP/JPY is a very popular pair in Forex trading as it captures both risk-on/risk-off dynamics, geographic trends, and rate differential trends.

The Yen and Sterling have been subject to some strong dynamics over the past month.

In Japan, markets are still concerned with the reckless government spending which the Japanese Prime Minister tried to defend against.

The latest development sees PM Sanae Takaichi and her cabinet approving a ¥21 trillion stimulus package—the largest since the COVID era.

This fiscal dovishness from the new Prime Minister, historically a negative for currency strength, has been heavily priced in since her appointment. Paradoxically, this may force the Bank of Japan to turn more hawkish, potentially hiking rates sooner to protect against a run on the JPY – The next decision is expected on December 18th.

There could still be an intervention from the BoJ which aims at buying back some Yen against other currency reserves.

For the Pound, the initial volatility relative to the recent Budget is turning into a positive trend. Despite not pivoting to full austerity (aiming to cut expenses for a better fiscal balance), the budget is perceived as far from reckless.

While higher income taxes might dampen consumption slightly, the overall fiscal stance has put the GBP in a decent position, making it the 3rd best performer of today's session.

Technically, the pair is at key point. If the current rally extends beyond the 207.00 level, the price action will point directly to a retest of the July 2024 peak.

Let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis and technical levels for GBP/JPY, a pair that should stay active during the Thanksgiving break.

GBP/JPY Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis

Daily Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart, November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The pair has evolved in a one-way tight bull channel since November 5, taking prices to overbought RSI levels.

Nevertheless, overbought doesn't mean top, particularly as the RSI is still tilting upwards, hence momentum backs the ongoing rebound.

One thing to look for on the bigger timeframe is how the market reacts to its entry (or lack thereof) in the 207.00 Resistance:

Last week, the action stopped at 206.86 which is the level to keep in mind: Closing above would confirm an entry in the Resistance and targets the 208.120 highs.
Below, it could point more to a double-top action and a reversal.
Keep in mind that the Bank of Japan may intervene during the Thanksgiving break which may also provide a huge move lower. The issue is that the timing for such is unknown.

Let's dive into the intraday charts.

4H Chart and Technical Levels

GBP/JPY 4H Chart, November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The current 4H Candle forms a doji – pointing to a more hesitant price action.

A potential trading gameplan could be to look at breakout scenarios:

A 4H close above 207.074 should push further into the resistance zone.
A push below the 205.526 candle lows hints at further retracement.

Levels to watch for GBPJPY trading:

Support Levels:

4H Candle lows 206.50
Post-Election highs 205.33 – Current pivot
Higher timeframe Pivot – Current Support 203.00
Main key Support 199.00 to 200.00
Mid 2025 Support 195.00 to 196.85

Resistance Levels:

207.00 to 208.00 2024 July highs – Current test
Session highs 207.074
208.120 July 2024 highs
209.50 to 210.50 May 2008 Extremes

1H Chart

GBP/JPY 1H Chart, November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The shorter timeframe points at further balance as the buying stalls on overbought 1H RSI.

As mentioned, right before, look at whether markets make a push either for the highs or the lows in a breakout scenario.

To avoid fakeouts, a trader can also wait for a 1H or 4H Candle close as confirmation.

In case of a bigger retracement, keep an eye on the Hourly uptrend to see if it holds, implying a buy signal or breaks, implying a sell signal.

Safe Trades!

Source: ACTIONFOREX

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Glendon

Political

China urged the U.S. on Thursday to rein in Japan and prevent any "actions to revive militarism" in an editorial published by the newspaper of the ruling Communist Party, as a war of words with Tokyo grows over the Japanese prime minister's remarks on Taiwan.

The timing of Chinese President Xi Jinping's call with U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday, followed by Trump's call with Japan's Sanae Takaichi the next day, prompted analysts to speculate that Beijing had asked Washington to step in to ease hostilities.

The diplomatic furor erupted after Takaichi told parliament on November 7 that a hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan could draw a military response from Tokyo.

"China and the United States share a common responsibility to jointly safeguard the post-war international order and oppose any attempts or actions to revive militarism," the article said, highlighting how the two countries shared a common enemy during World War Two, Japan.

"The communication between the Chinese and U.S. leaders has significant practical implications," the editorial added, asserting that Takaichi's comments have "raised concern and vigilance in the international community regarding Japan's dangerous strategic moves."

The commentary was published under the pen name "Zhong Sheng", meaning "Voice of China", which is often used to give the paper's view on foreign policy issues.

Trump told Takaichi to avoid further escalation with China during their call, two Japanese government sources told Reuters.

Mao Ning, a spokesperson for China's foreign ministry, did not address whether Xi had asked Trump to intervene when asked during a regular news conference on Wednesday.

People's Daily said Trump had told Xi that the U.S. understood the importance of Taiwan to China. Trump made no mention of the democratically-governed island that Beijing regards as part of its territory in his Truth Social post following their conversation.

Japan's Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said on Sunday that plans to deploy a medium-range surface-to-air missile unit at a military base on Yonaguni, an island about 110 km (68 miles) off Taiwan's east coast were "steadily moving forward," drawing sharp criticism from Beijing.

"China and the U.S. fought side by side against fascism and militarism, and should now work together to safeguard the victory of World War Two," People's Daily said.

Source: TradingView

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Olivia Brooks

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

●Worries about 28-point 'peace plan' at home and abroad

●Republicans offer unusually harsh criticism of Trump policy

●Calls for Trump to find new advisers, administration pushes back

Several congressional Republicans are harshly criticizing President Donald Trump's White House over its handling of a proposed Ukraine peace plan they say favors Russia, a sharp departure for a party that has adhered closely to almost all of Trump's initiatives.

Backers of Ukraine have worried that a U.S.-based 28-point framework for ending the war in Ukraine, first reported last week, means Trump's administration might be willing to push Kyiv to sign a peace deal heavily tilted toward Moscow.

"This so-called 'peace plan' has real problems, and I am highly skeptical it will achieve peace," Senator Roger Wicker, the Republican chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said in a statement on Friday.

Those fears escalated when Bloomberg News reported on, opens new tab Tuesday that Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff, in an October 14 telephone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin's policy aide Yuri Ushakov, said they should work together on a ceasefire plan and that Putin should raise it with Trump.

"For those who oppose the Russian invasion and want to see Ukraine prevail as a sovereign & democratic country, it is clear that Witkoff fully favors the Russians. He cannot be trusted to lead these negotiations. Would a Russian paid agent do less than he? He should be fired," Republican Representative Don Bacon said on X.

While Trump's party remains overwhelmingly behind him, the criticism from Republican lawmakers is notable, given the president's recent setbacks, including Democratic election victories this month and Congress backing the release of Justice Department files on the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, an outcome Trump fought for months.

Republican Representative Brian Fitzpatrick called for a shift in approach, describing the call on social media as "a major problem. And one of the many reasons why these ridiculous side shows and secret meetings need to stop."

Senator Mitch McConnell, the former Republican Senate leader, suggested Trump might need to find new advisers. "Rewarding Russian butchery would be disastrous to America's interests," he said in a statement.

Pushback From Trump's Circle

Members of Trump's inner circle have pushed back against the lawmakers.

Vice President JD Vance, a former Republican senator who has criticized aid to Ukraine, accused McConnell of making a "ridiculous attack" on the plan to end the war.

The president's son, Donald Trump Jr., said on social media that McConnell was "just bitter and lashing out against my father."

But the attacks from members of Trump's own party, along with recent political headwinds, could signal a bigger problem for the administration, said analysts.

"All of this suggests he's much more politically vulnerable than he's seemed for the last nine, 10 months," said Scott Anderson, a fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution.

Additionally, with opinion polls showing most Americans want to support Ukraine as it battles Russia's invaders, Republicans are likely looking toward the 2026 midterm elections, when control of Congress will be at stake, and many Republican candidates in tight races will have to appeal to independent voters.

Some of the strongest criticism has come from Republicans like Bacon and McConnell, who are not running for reelection, but Anderson said they are saying publicly what others would be saying in private meetings.

"They are so vocal, they are so targeted ... It almost certainly reflects a private element of messaging from the part of the party they represent," Anderson said.