Bitcoin’s Rare Signal Suggests 40% Price Surge Potential

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin's surge potential from this signal underlines the importance of institutional influence in the cryptocurrency market.

Key Points:

●Bitcoin's rare technical signal indicates significant price movement.

●Institutional adoption supports predicted 40% surge.

●Impact reflects on global financial markets and crypto sectors.

Bitcoin's Rare Technical Signal & Institutional Adoption

Bitcoin's rare technical signal, historically linked to price surges, emerges as institutional funds reach $100 billion in assets under management after ETF approval in January 2025.

This rare signal's emergence suggests a potential 40% price increase, significantly impacting Bitcoin's market position and fostering bullish sentiment amidst strong institutional participation.

Bitcoin has shown a rare technical signal historically linked to price surges. Past similar setups resulted in significant value increases, with key previous levels marked at $76K, $49K, and $16K, according to historical Bitcoin data. Institutional involvement reinforces market confidence.

Major institutional actors are accumulating Bitcoin following the ETF debut in 2025. These institutions now hold substantial Bitcoin amounts, showing growing confidence. BlackRock emphasizes Bitcoin's role in diversified portfolios, highlighting its acceptance as a store-of-value asset.

Impact on Cryptocurrency Market

This signal is affecting the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin. Institutional acquisition of 120,000 BTC since ETF approval marks a notable shift. ETF assets have reached $100B, demonstrating Bitcoin's increasing legitimacy in global finance. https://x.com/magacoinfinance

The financial landscape shifts as institutional flows elevate Bitcoin's position. Ethereum and altcoins might exhibit correlated movements but are not currently driven by Bitcoin’s technical signal. Blockchain exchanges observe reduced balances, noting strong institutional holding.

Expert Analysis and Projections

Expert analysis aligns with historical trends, where past signals like the golden cross led to substantial price increases. The current signal might result in a potential 40% surge, supported by strong institutional backing and .

Bitcoin's surge potential from this signal underlines the importance of institutional influence in the cryptocurrency market. On-chain data, including exchange balances and HODL waves, strongly suggest a bullish price scenario, marking a pivotal moment for investors.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Economic

Commodity

Gold Prices Hit Record High Amid Rate Cut Expectations

As of September 16, 2025, gold prices have surged to new all-time highs, with bullion surpassing the previous record of $3,685 an ounce. This surge is largely attributed to growing investor speculation that the Federal Reserve will implement a rate cut during its upcoming meeting. The anticipation surrounding the Fed's decision has significantly impacted the gold market, which is traditionally viewed as a hedge against economic uncertainty and low interest rates.

The rise in gold prices comes as the U.S. dollar weakens, falling to its lowest level in over seven weeks. This decline in the dollar, combined with expectations of a dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, has further supported gold’s rally. While markets have priced in the possibility of a rate cut, the focus now shifts to the Fed’s updated economic and rate forecasts, which will be revealed in the upcoming quarterly "dot plot" update. Additionally, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s post-decision press conference is expected to provide further clarity on future monetary policy, particularly concerning the scope for additional easing.

Inflation and Labor Data Boost Gold Outlook

One of the key drivers of gold's rally this year has been the combination of weak labor market data and the lack of significant inflationary pressures. These factors have increased the likelihood of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could be beneficial for gold, as it does not generate interest income. Furthermore, a strong push for more accommodative monetary policies from U.S. President Donald Trump, including his efforts to influence the Fed's leadership, has reinforced market expectations of continued dovish actions from the central bank.

Goldman Sachs has forecast that gold prices could potentially reach $5,000 an ounce if a small percentage of privately-held U.S. Treasury bonds were shifted into the precious metal. This projection is based on the ongoing demand from central banks, which have increased their gold reserves in response to persistent geopolitical and trade uncertainties. Additionally, gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen significant inflows, further contributing to the precious metal's strong performance this year.

Strong Performance Amid Economic Uncertainty

In 2025, gold has outperformed many other major assets, including the S&P 500 index, rising by more than 40% year-to-date. The metal's performance has also recently surpassed its inflation-adjusted peak reached in 1980. As investors continue to seek refuge in safe-haven assets, gold remains a key beneficiary of the current global economic environment, which is marked by uncertainty surrounding trade tensions, geopolitical risks, and inflation concerns.

While silver has also seen a notable increase in price, approaching a 14-year high, platinum has experienced a slight decline, and palladium has edged higher. As of the latest trading data, gold has risen by 0.2% to $3,686.39 an ounce, continuing its positive momentum from the previous trading day.

The gold market’s recent surge underscores the strong correlation between expectations of monetary policy shifts and the behavior of safe-haven assets, highlighting the ongoing impact of global economic uncertainty on investor sentiment.

Source: Bloomberg

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FXOpen

Economic

Forex

Technical Analysis

As the GBP/USD chart shows, the pair is trading this morning above 1.3620 – its highest level since the beginning of July.

The bullish sentiment is driven by the divergence in central bank policies:

→ United States: Traders are betting on an interest rate cut, supported by President Trump. The Federal Reserve will announce its decision tomorrow at 21:00 GMT+3, and the market expects a reduction of at least 0.25%, from 4.25%–4.50% to 4.00%–4.25%.

→ United Kingdom: Traders anticipate the rate will remain at 4.00%. The Bank of England will announce its decision on Thursday at 14:00 GMT+3.

Although the rates of the two central banks are comparable, the situation differs: in the UK, inflation is more persistent and rate cuts are seen as risky, while in the US, President Trump is exerting pressure on the Fed’s leadership.An additional boost for the pound comes from a wave of investment optimism linked to US President Donald Trump’s state visit to the UK. According to media reports, agreements worth around $10 billion are expected to be announced during the visit.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

Looking at the price movements earlier this month, we noted lower highs and lower lows forming a bearish A→B→C→D structure. We also assumed that:
→ bulls could rely on support at the psychological level of 1.3400;
→ but if bearish pressure intensified, GBP/USD could fall towards the median of the descending channel.

Since then, the situation has changed considerably: bears failed to consolidate below 1.3400, and after a bullish double bottom pattern (1–2) formed, the price surged upwards.

At the same time, the GBP/USD chart highlights key signs of strong demand:
→ the descending (red) channel has been broken, and the bearish A→B→C→D structure is no longer relevant;
→ higher highs and higher lows confirm buyer dominance – providing grounds to outline a rising (blue) channel.

On the other hand, the RSI indicator is close to overbought territory, which suggests a possible pullback.

Potential support levels:
→ 1.34900: the breakout point where bulls started their advance;
→ 1.35890: a level that lost its resistance role this week;
→ the upper boundary and median of the blue ascending channel.

Taking all this into account, we could assume that in the near term, bulls may aim to lift GBP/USD towards the upper boundary of the yellow channel. It is also possible that news from the Fed and the Bank of England will aid them on this path.

Source: FXOpen

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Economic

Investor Sentiment Shifts

Foreign interest is being driven by China’s progress in artificial intelligence, semiconductor production, and innovative drug development. The U.S.-China tariff truce and domestic monetary easing have further buoyed confidence. Early foreign entrants are focusing on the onshore A-share market, which offers lower correlation to global equities.

Brett Barna, managing two New York-based family offices, highlighted China as an “uncorrelated” investment and plans a platform to channel U.S. and European capital into China. Allianz Global Investors’ Zheng Yucheng noted China is increasingly treated as a standalone asset class rather than being excluded from indices.

Evidence of Renewed Capital Interest

August 2025 saw the largest monthly hedge fund purchases of Chinese stocks in six months, according to Morgan Stanley. Polar Capital increased its China allocation to over 30% from low 20% within its emerging market portfolio, reflecting strong investor appetite. Demand for emerging market funds excluding China has cooled, underscoring China’s growing appeal.

Cambridge Associates reported roughly 30 client inquiries about China-focused funds this year, a stark contrast to 2023. Many non-Asian investors are planning visits to China and Hong Kong to explore opportunities in tech, AI, biotech, and robotics.

Caveats and Structural Concerns

Despite the optimism, China’s broader economy shows signs of weakness. Factory output, retail sales, and foreign direct investment (down 13.2% in the first five months of 2025) remain subdued. Analysts warn that early inflows have not yet translated into sustained capital, and the AI boom must benefit the broader economy to maintain market momentum.

CLSA strategist Alexander Redman cites deflationary pressures as a reason to avoid overweighting the market. Polar Capital’s Jerry Wu emphasizes that while innovative sectors are booming, broader economic improvement is crucial for long-term gains.

Foreign capital is “standing at the door,” evaluating China’s long-term competitiveness and potential returns. Early signs suggest a rerating of Chinese innovative assets, but significant, sustained inflows may depend on economic stabilization and tangible benefits from technology and industrial advances.

The overall picture is one of cautious optimism: markets are attracting attention, but structural challenges persist.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

Current Market Trends

Spot gold traded around $3,680 per ounce on Tuesday after hitting a record $3,689.27 earlier in the session. The metal has gained roughly 40% this year, following a 27% increase in 2024. Investors are drawn to gold as a hedge against geopolitical and economic risks, particularly amid low interest rates.

Renisha Chainani of Augmont noted that although gold is currently overbought, strong demand from central banks and ETFs supports the long-term bullish outlook. Philip Newman from Metals Focus echoed that gold is in “uncharted territory” and predicted prices could rise above $4,000 in 2026.

Drivers Behind the Rally

Key factors fueling gold’s rally include: expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut at the September 17 policy meeting, continued geopolitical tensions, and a growing appetite among institutional and retail investors. Pressure from U.S. President Trump on the Fed to accelerate rate cuts has heightened market attention on gold as a safe haven.

Analysts expect a near-term 5-6% correction, which could serve as a buying opportunity for sidelined investors. Nicholas Frappell of ABC Refinery highlighted that price projections have been consistently met faster than expected, underscoring the momentum behind the rally.

Silver’s Strength

Silver has also surged, trading at $42.50 per ounce its highest level in 14 years supported by both industrial demand (electronics and solar panels) and investor interest. Growing physical demand amid concerns about supply deficits is contributing to silver’s price gains, mirroring gold’s bullish trend.

In summary, gold and silver remain in strong uptrends, with a brief correction likely for gold before prices potentially exceed $4,000 in 2026, while silver benefits from both investment and industrial demand.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

Cryptocurrency

Rising Leverage in Altcoins

Open interest for altcoins has surged from $30 billion on September 1 to $38.6 billion as of Monday, now approaching Bitcoin’s $40 billion and surpassing Ethereum’s $30 billion, according to Coinalyze. While open interest alone does not predict price direction, it signals that sophisticated traders are positioning ahead of the Fed’s expected rate cut.

Stephen Gregory, founder of crypto trading platform Vtrader, noted that the increase in altcoin leverage reflects traders’ anticipation of an “alt season,” with funds temporarily rotating out of Bitcoin into altcoins in the short term.

Potential Market Dynamics

Gregory cautioned that larger traders may attempt to “front run” the Fed’s anticipated rate cut on Wednesday, which could trigger complex dynamics: retail investors may interpret the cut as bullish, while whales could leverage shorts to force liquidation events.

Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, highlighted rising one-week at-the-money implied volatility and 25-delta skews as indicators of expected short-term price fluctuations. Traders should prepare for heightened activity and adjust strategies to navigate potential volatility.

Macro Context

The Fed faces pressure from President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who have publicly called for substantial rate cuts, even urging Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s resignation at times this year. This political backdrop contributes to uncertainty in both traditional and crypto markets, amplifying the stakes for leveraged trading positions.

In summary, crypto markets are entering a potentially turbulent period, with altcoin leverage surging and the Fed’s policy decision poised to be a catalyst for significant short-term volatility.

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Economic

Canadian Canola Redirected to Vietnam

Three traders attending an international industry conference in Jakarta said that Vietnamese feed mills have been importing around 30,000 metric tons of Canadian canola meal per month over the past few months. While this volume is smaller than what China previously bought, it represents an opportunity for Vietnamese companies to take advantage of discounted prices.

Currently, Vietnamese feed makers are paying around $220 per metric ton, including cost and freight, compared to $300–310 per ton that Chinese buyers paid before the duties were imposed in March.

Reason for the Shift

China, the world’s largest importer of canola, imposed preliminary anti-dumping duties of 75.8% on Canadian canola seed in August, following a 100% retaliatory tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and oil, effective March 20. Many shipments that arrived in China after the 100% duty took effect are now stuck in bonded warehouses. Trading companies are seeking to redirect these shipments to Vietnam to avoid the high duties.

Up to 400,000 metric tons of canola meal are currently held in secure warehouses near Chinese ports, where importers would face a 100% tariff if released into the domestic market. Redirecting this supply to Vietnam offers a temporary solution to move the stock and reduce financial risk.

Impact and Outlook

Although Vietnam’s demand is smaller than China’s, traders expect more deals in the coming months. This presents an opportunity for Vietnamese feed producers to lower their input costs, while Canada can access alternative markets for its excess supply.

Ongoing discussions between Canadian and Chinese officials regarding the duties continue, but redirecting shipments to Vietnam serves as an effective short-term workaround for both sides.