Bitcoin Sentiment Turns Greedy Again—Time to Be Cautious?

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

As Bitcoin and other digital assets recover, data shows the sentiment among cryptocurrency investors has returned to a state of greed.

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Is Pointing At Greed Again

The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator made by Alternative that measures the net sentiment held by the average trader in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency spaces.

The index uses the data of the following five factors to determine the market sentiment: trading volume, volatility, market cap dominance, social media sentiment, and Google Trends.

The metric represents the calculated mentality as a score lying between 0 and 100. The former end point corresponds to a state of maximum fear, while the latter one to that of maximum greed.

Here’s what the index says regarding the current sentiment among the investors:

Looks like the value of the metric is 65 at the moment | Source: Alternative

As displayed above, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has a value of 65, which suggests the traders currently share a majority sentiment of greed. This is a notable change compared to yesterday, when the indicator was sitting at 47, meaning that the investor mentality was overall neutral.

The trend in the Fear & Greed Index over the past twelve months | Source: Alternative

The holder sentiment earlier declined as a result of the geopolitical situation surrounding the Israel-Iran conflict. Following the announcement of a ceasefire between the nations, prices bounced back and it would appear that with them, so did the investor mood.

The ceasefire has since been violated, so it’s possible that tomorrow’s Fear & Greed Index would be less bullish. That said, Bitcoin has held surprisingly well despite the news, which could imply that the sentiment may also remain the same.

Historically, BTC and digital assets in general have tended to move in the direction that goes against the expectations of the investors. This means that an overly greedy market makes tops likely, while an extremely fearful one bottoms.

At present, the level of greed in the market isn’t too strong, but the fact that it has seen a notable jump alongside the recovery run could still be to take note off. In the scenario that hype keeps increasing in the coming days, another reversal could turn more probable for Bitcoin and company.

In some other news, the US-based Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net inflows yesterday, 23rd June, as pointed out by the analytics firm Glassnode in an X post.

The data for the netflows associated with the US spot ETFs | Source: Glassnode on X

As displayed in the above graph, the US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of around 598 BTC on this date, despite the geopolitical tensions. “Although the inflows were modest, no major outflows were recorded either, which is notable signal of investor confidence,” notes Glassnode.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has already made recovery beyond the level it was trading at before the plunge, as its price is now back at $106,000.

The asset seems to have shot up during the past day | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView

Source: CoinGecko

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Middle East Situation

Trump’s Surprise Reversal Undermines Sanctions Doctrine

In a surprising move that sent ripples through diplomatic and financial circles, President Donald Trump declared that China could resume purchasing Iranian oil, marking a sharp deviation from Washington’s years-long policy of maximum pressure on Tehran. His statement, made via Truth Social, came just hours after he announced a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran following recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

The announcement appeared to be made unilaterally, without coordination with the U.S. Treasury or State Department, both of which seemed caught off guard. The Treasury confirmed that sanctions enforcement remains active, signaling confusion within the administration. This lack of internal alignment suggests that the president’s comments may be more rhetorical than a formal policy change.

A Diplomatic Gambit Tied to Trade and Peace

Trump’s apparent olive branch to China — Iran’s top oil customer — seems part of a larger effort to reduce tensions in both the Middle East and U.S.-China trade relations. Analysts suggest the statement might have been aimed at encouraging further cooperation from Beijing amid delicate negotiations over reciprocal tariffs and regional diplomacy.

This possible “carve-out” for China could be interpreted as a goodwill gesture, albeit one that risks undermining U.S. leverage. China has already built covert supply chains for Iranian crude, often disguising its imports as Malaysian or Emirati shipments. Officially, it hasn’t reported Iranian oil purchases since June 2022, yet third-party trackers estimate flows exceed 1 million barrels per day.

Markets React Cautiously as Confusion Reigns

Oil markets saw a modest uptick, with Brent crude rising above $68 per barrel. The increase was muted, likely due to uncertainty about the actual policy implications. Many traders are skeptical, interpreting the president’s post as a one-off political maneuver rather than a green light for unrestrained imports.

Former Treasury officials and geopolitical analysts warned that the inconsistent messaging could reduce the credibility of U.S. sanctions enforcement. If buyers believe the White House is wavering, compliance may erode even without formal changes to the law.

Strategic Risks: Eroding Sanctions Without Security Gains

Trump’s post contradicts his administration’s own policy as recently as last month, when he vowed that any purchase of Iranian oil would trigger secondary sanctions. The U.S. has blacklisted hundreds of tankers and Chinese entities over illicit Iranian oil trading. As of now, none of those measures have been lifted.

This sudden reversal could weaken the U.S. bargaining position in nuclear talks with Tehran and embolden sanctions evasion. It also complicates coordination with allies, particularly in Europe, who have long been urged by Washington to isolate Iran’s energy sector.

Moreover, the White House’s inability to clarify whether the president’s words reflect actual policy exposes a larger issue: inconsistent foreign policy execution at a time of elevated geopolitical risk.

Trump’s abrupt shift on Chinese imports of Iranian oil has confused markets, surprised diplomats, and put U.S. sanctions credibility in question. Whether this is part of a larger strategy to ease tensions or simply political improvisation remains unclear. Without formal clarification or legal revisions, the U.S. sanctions regime remains in place — but its deterrent power may have just taken a serious hit.

Source: Bloomberg

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Fed Holds Firm Against Political Pressure, Focuses on Data-Driven Policy

In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a measured but resolute message: the Fed is committed to maintaining price stability and will remain cautious before altering its policy stance. Despite rising political pressure, especially from President Trump, Powell reiterated that the central bank’s decisions are independent and will be guided solely by data.

Trump has escalated his public attacks on Powell, accusing him of being "dumb" and "hardheaded" for refusing to cut rates amid rising trade tensions. However, Powell made clear that “politics has no role” in Fed policy, emphasizing, “We’re doing our jobs.”

Tariffs: The Core Uncertainty Behind the Fed’s Policy Delay

The key issue restraining the Fed from acting is uncertainty around the inflationary impact of Trump’s tariff policies. Powell explained that the “ultimate level” and persistence of price increases due to tariffs remain unclear. While short-term effects typically include one-off price hikes, the Fed is watching for signs of sustained inflation acceleration that could justify a policy shift.

Powell warned that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has a duty to “prevent a one-time increase in the price level from becoming an ongoing inflation problem.” He highlighted that inflation is projected to rise modestly in May to 2.3%, with core inflation expected to reach 2.6% — both slightly above the Fed’s 2% target but still not alarming enough to prompt immediate action.

Labor Market Solid, Inflation Risks Balanced — No Rush to Cut

Powell characterized the U.S. economy as “solid,” with employment near full capacity. While inflation remains slightly elevated, he emphasized the Fed’s responsibility to balance the dual mandate of price stability and full employment. “Without price stability, we cannot achieve the long periods of strong labor market conditions that benefit all Americans,” he told lawmakers.

Some Fed officials — including Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller — have suggested that if inflation stays in check, they may support a July rate cut. However, Powell signaled the broader committee’s reluctance, noting that it will take more than one month of data to justify easing.

Market Implications: July Cut Unlikely, September More Probable

The futures market is currently pricing in only a 23% chance of a July rate cut, with stronger odds for a move in September. This aligns with Powell’s assertion that more time is needed to observe the economic fallout from tariffs and ensure inflation doesn’t spiral.

The Fed’s dot plot revealed a divided board: nine officials anticipate zero or one cut in 2025, while the remaining ten foresee two or more cuts. This internal divergence reflects how finely balanced the inflation-growth tradeoff is in the current environment.

Despite rising political heat, Powell’s testimony makes it clear the Fed is focused on its long-term credibility and macroeconomic stability rather than short-term pressure. With inflation data still within a manageable range and uncertainty over tariffs unresolved, the central bank is in no rush to cut rates. Investors and markets should expect the Fed to remain data-dependent, resisting premature action until inflation expectations and global risks become more predictable.

Source: CNBC

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Forex

Beijing Moves to Elevate the Yuan’s Global Profile

As the U.S. dollar suffers from heightened policy uncertainty and declining global confidence, China is intensifying efforts to promote the yuan as a viable alternative for international trade and finance. The People's Bank of China (PBOC), under Governor Pan Gongsheng, is leading initiatives to reduce reliance on what he calls a "single sovereign currency," a clear reference to the dollar. At the core of this strategy is the internationalization of the digital yuan, expanded access to Chinese financial markets, and greater use of the renminbi in cross-border payments and commodity pricing.

These efforts come at a moment of relative strength for China’s currency. The offshore yuan has appreciated over 2% against the U.S. dollar in 2025, while the dollar index has fallen over 9% amid investor unease with U.S. policy under President Trump, especially regarding tariffs and sanctions.

Strategic Access for Foreign Institutions and Commodities Pricing Power

China is targeting the futures and commodities markets as key channels for yuan internationalization. In recent weeks, three major Chinese exchanges—Shanghai, Dalian, and Zhengzhou—have opened up 16 additional futures and options contracts to qualified foreign institutional investors, including contracts in natural rubber, lead, and tin. These additions are part of a broader campaign to expand foreign investor access to China’s hedging tools and integrate the yuan into global commodity pricing systems.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange also announced plans to allow foreign currency collateral for yuan-settled trades—further smoothing access for global players.

Financial firms are slowly responding. Morgan Stanley’s Chinese subsidiary now offers brokerage services for commodity futures and plans to expand to equity and bond futures trading, after years of gradual regulatory approvals.

Despite these openings, structural barriers remain. China's capital controls and lack of legal transparency continue to deter deep foreign investment, limiting the yuan’s broader appeal compared to the dollar's unmatched liquidity and regulatory clarity.

Digital Yuan, Cross-Border Lending, and Bilateral Settlements

Beyond investment markets, Beijing is building out a parallel financial infrastructure to challenge dollar supremacy. The central bank has laid the groundwork for a digital yuan hub in Shanghai to support international transactions, while Chinese banks are increasingly using yuan in lending to emerging markets, especially as lower interest rates make it cost-effective.

The Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) is also playing a growing role, providing an alternative to the SWIFT network and supporting bilateral trade in yuan with partners in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. In February 2025, China allocated $100 billion in financing through Hong Kong to support yuan-denominated deals—further incentivizing global businesses to adopt the currency.

While China's push is strategic and steady, results remain mixed. According to SWIFT’s May data, the yuan accounted for just 2.89% of global payments, down from 5th to 6th place globally. In contrast, the U.S. dollar still dominated with 48.46% of all cross-border transactions, followed by the euro at 23.56%.

Dollar Weakness and Global Shifts Bolster China’s Timing

China’s de-dollarization drive coincides with broader shifts in Asia and the Global South. Geopolitical tensions, dollar volatility, and the rising cost of U.S. borrowing have prompted many countries to hedge against dollar exposure. President Trump’s tariff escalation and abrupt foreign policy decisions have only intensified the appetite for diversification, pushing more institutional money toward yuan-based assets.

State Street Markets’ proprietary data points to a sharp increase in institutional CNY inflows. According to senior EM strategist Ning Sun, institutional investors—still underweight in yuan—are now positioning more aggressively in CNY-denominated assets.

Progress, but Long Road Ahead

While China’s multi-pronged strategy is yielding incremental gains, experts remain cautious. As Matt Gertken of BCA Research notes, the yuan lacks the deep, open, and rule-of-law-based financial system that underpins the dollar’s dominance. Unless China can offer credible reforms to improve transparency, legal reliability, and capital mobility, the yuan's global role will remain significant but limited.

Still, with the global monetary order in flux and confidence in the dollar shaken, China’s window to reshape financial geopolitics is as wide as it has ever been. The challenge now is execution and trust.

Source: CNBC

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Commodity

Australian Farmers Reap Benefits from Historic Lamb and Mutton Prices

Australian sheep farmers are witnessing a historic boom as the price of heavy lambs soared to nearly A$11 ($7.14) per kilogram last week—a 50% jump from the same period in 2024. This marks a significant moment for the nation’s agricultural sector, especially as Australia cements its role as the world’s top sheep meat exporter.

According to Matt Dalgleish, analyst at Episode 3, the surge is driven by increasing export demand, limited global supply, and Australia’s expanding market share. “Until the underlying pressure of limited supply and strong growth in demand changes, there should be more good times ahead for Australian producers,” he noted.

Export Volumes and Values Hit Record Levels

Australian export volumes reached 702,000 metric tons in 2024, worth $3.6 billion, representing a near 40% increase from the previous peak in 2019. In the first four months of 2025 alone, shipments rose 10% year-over-year, showing strong momentum as international buyers continue sourcing from Australia.

China remains the largest importer of Australian sheep meat, followed by the United States, the European Union, Britain, and Middle Eastern countries. Demand is being bolstered not just by population growth but also by substitution effects: consumers, especially in the U.S., are turning to lamb and mutton as beef prices remain elevated.

New Zealand’s Declining Output Creates a Strategic Window

Australia’s boom coincides with structural stagnation in New Zealand’s sheep industry. As Rabobank’s Angus Gidley-Baird explains, “Its production is stagnating or retracting. So any growth in global demand is Australia’s opportunity for the taking.” The number of sheep in New Zealand has steadily declined since 2012, largely due to the conversion of pastureland into pine plantations to generate carbon credits.

This structural shift means that while Australia’s sheep numbers have increased—enabling producers to meet processor demand—New Zealand’s global market share has been gradually eroded, consolidating Australia’s export dominance.

Continued Growth with Caution on Supply Constraints

Looking forward, analysts expect sheep meat prices to remain strong, albeit with seasonal fluctuations. The main tailwinds include high global demand, constrained rival supply, and favorable trade conditions. However, to sustain growth, Australia must manage challenges such as processor capacity, climate risk, and maintaining animal health standards amid scaling operations.

For now, though, the combination of favorable market dynamics and declining competition places Australia in a rare and enviable position within global agriculture: leading a high-value export market with strong forward momentum.

Source: Reuters

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

German Export Outlook Weakens Under Tariff Cloud

The Ifo Institute reported on Wednesday that its export expectations index for Germany fell to -3.9 in June from -3.0 in May. This decline reflects a growing sense of unease among exporters, who remain wary of U.S. President Donald Trump’s push for reciprocal tariffs and ongoing trade tensions with the European Union. Klaus Wohlrabe, head of Ifo surveys, emphasized that the lack of a clear resolution is weighing on sentiment: “The tariff threats from the U.S. are still on the table. An agreement between the EU and the U.S. has yet to be reached.”

Germany’s export-dependent economy is particularly sensitive to changes in global trade policy, and the auto industry—which accounts for a significant portion of German exports—is especially exposed. Many German manufacturers have built production models around stable transatlantic trade, making them vulnerable to tariff shocks.

Negotiations with U.S. Yield Limited Progress

Though negotiations are ongoing, European officials have expressed growing skepticism that a comprehensive deal can be reached in the near term. According to sources familiar with the discussions, both sides may have to settle for a 10% reciprocal tariff baseline—significantly higher than current levels and a departure from long-standing low-tariff norms under previous trade frameworks.

President Trump’s strategy appears focused on shrinking the U.S. trade deficit with the EU, particularly targeting industries like automobiles and machinery where German firms hold large surpluses. The EU has so far resisted unilateral concessions, aiming instead for a broader resolution, though the clock is ticking as the July 9 expiration of the current tariff pause approaches.

Short-Term Caution, Long-Term Structural Concern

With no imminent resolution in sight, German exporters are bracing for a more difficult second half of 2025. The continued slide in Ifo’s export expectations signals caution about new orders and investment in trade-reliant sectors. If talks break down entirely or if the U.S. unilaterally enforces higher tariffs, Germany could face sharper slowdowns in manufacturing, particularly in autos, chemicals, and industrial machinery.

In the broader context, this development adds to Europe’s economic challenges as growth remains sluggish, inflationary pressures diverge across the eurozone, and global demand remains fragile. Germany’s export pessimism could ripple across the EU if the tariff standoff becomes prolonged or escalates into broader retaliatory measures.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Golden Gleam

Economic

Commodity

Gold (XAUUSD) quotes are forming grounds for a rebound, although the outlook remains mixed. The gold (XAUUSD) forecast for today, 25 June 2025, suggests a potential recovery with growth towards 3,350 USD.

Gold (XAUUSD) prices strengthened to 3,300 USD, rebounding from a two-week low. Discover more in our analysis for 25 June 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

●Gold (XAUUSD) prices are recovering after hitting a two-week low

●The Fed interest rate outlook could be a growth point

●XAUUSD forecast for 25 June 2025: 3,350

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) quotes recovered to 3,300 USD per troy ounce on Wednesday, moving away from their lowest level in two weeks. Market participants are evaluating the durability of the ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

Today, preliminary US intelligence assessments revealed that the recent strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites only temporarily stalled Tehran's nuclear programme, which fuels concerns over possible escalation.

The ceasefire brokered by the US appears fragile, with both parties accusing each other of attacks shortly after the truce began.

On the monetary policy front, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that interest rates will likely remain unchanged until the impact of new tariffs becomes clearer. However, he did not rule out a possible rate cut in July.

These comments contrast with statements from other Fed officials who earlier supported policy easing amid signs of slowing inflation and a weakening labour market.

The gold (XAUUSD) forecast is mixed.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, gold (XAUUSD) is recovering, although sellers still hold the initiative. XAUUSD rebounded from the lower boundary of the descending channel at 3,295, but to strengthen this momentum, prices must consolidate above 3,350. This would also confirm the emergence of bullish sentiment in the market. If so, the next upside target could be 3,393.

If the rebound fails to gain traction, the market may retreat back to 3,295, increasing market pressure.

Source: RoboForex