Bessent Says Yen Will Settle If BOJ Keeps Taking Right Policies

The Australian dollar slipped on Thursday when data showed unemployment jumping to a near four-year high as jobs growth continued to slow sharply, a shock result that rekindled pressure for a near-term rate cut.The Aussie fell 0.3% to $0.6489after the government reported unemployment spiked to 4.5% in September, the highest reading since late 2021 and above forecasts of 4.3%.Employment missed forecasts with a rise of 14,900, dragging annual jobs growth down to a pedestrian 1.3% compared to a rapid 3.5% at the start of the year.

The dismal result contrasted markedly with the Reserve Bank of Australia's recent assessment that the labour market was "stable", and with the central bank's forecast that unemployment would peak at 4.3%.Investors quickly responded by boosting the chance of a November cut in the 3.65% cash rate to 76%, from under 50% before the data. Futures also sharply narrowed the odds on rates falling to an eventual floor of 3.10%. Abhijit Surya, a senior APAC economist at Capital Economics, cautioned that the jobs data had shown spikes in unemployment before only for them to reverse the following month.

"On balance, our sense is that today's soft jobs will bring the RBA a bit closer to cutting rates by 25bp at its meeting in November," he said."However, given the Bank's ongoing concerns about the stickiness of inflation, an upside surprise in the Q3 CPI data due at the end of the month could still tilt the scales in favour of a hold."Earlier in the session, RBA Governor Michele Bullock had described the labour market as still a little tight and said the board was considering whether there will be more easing or not.

Consumer price figures for the third quarter are due at the end of October, and analysts assume a rise of 0.9% or more in core inflation would still make the RBA reluctant to ease.Bond markets took the jobs data at face value and rallied hard, with two-year futures (TYc1) jumping 10 ticks to 96.625. Ten-year bond yields fell 7 basis points to 4.161%, and touched their lowest since early July.The drop gave the New Zealand dollar a rare 0.4% bounce on the Aussie to A$0.8819 (NZDAUD=R). The kiwi also added 0.3% on its U.S. counterpart to $0.5733, though that was still close to Monday's six-month trough of $0.5684.

Source: TradingView

Chinese measures to curb the export of rare earths could reignite price pressures in the euro zone if they ripple through the global economy, according to European Central Bank Governing Council member Madis Muller.

With interest rates at an appropriate level, officials should be “patient” and mindful of developments that could pull price pressures in both directions, the head of Estonia’s central bank said in an interview.

China’s export controls “show how barriers to free trade introduced by other countries can have an inflationary impact also in Europe,” Muller said in Washington, where he’s attending the IMF’s annual meetings. “Shortages of some critical inputs could certainly lead to higher prices for certain products, even if it hurts the economy.”

He added that this “would be the opposite of the standard narrative that suggests there is a deflationary impact for Europe from the additional tariffs in the US.”

Under Beijing’s new rules, overseas firms would be required to obtain Chinese government approval before exporting products containing even trace amounts of certain rare earths that originated in the country. The announcement prompted President Donald Trump to threaten an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods.

The situation has reignited investor fears of a trade war between the two nations and reminded ECB officials of the geopolitical risks to their outlook. The central bank predicts price growth will temporarily drop below its 2% target next year before re-accelerating in 2027.

The risks to this projection are “more or less balanced now,” Muller said.

“If the recovery ends up being weaker, that may also lead to lower inflation,” he said. “But there are also upside risks to inflation from trade disputes and the economy might recover faster, so it could go both ways.”

After eight cuts in the deposit rate to 2%, most ECB officials have said there’s no need to change borrowing costs any time soon unless there’s a new shock to the economy.

“With inflation at 2% and rates at a level where they’re mildly supportive of the recovery and not holding back activity, this is where we should be at the moment,” Muller said. “We should be patient and then take our decisions based on whatever dynamics we see in the economy in the coming months.”

Some of his colleagues still hold out the possibility of another reduction. Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau told Bloomberg TV this week that the next move is more likely to be a cut than a hike.

Muller disagreed, saying the ECB’s steps could go in either direction.

“It all depends now on the actual developments and it is hard to predict when will it be justified to change rates again,” he said. “And I personally don’t see why we should have an easing bias.”

The Estonian policymaker also gave a positive view of the European Union’s latest plans to use frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine’s war efforts and reconstruction. Governments are discussing plans to use up to €185 billion ($217 billion) of these funds as collateral for a loan to support Ukraine.

“The legal concerns around the latest proposal to use the frozen Russian assets indirectly should be much smaller,” he said. “I hope there will be a solution found where we can support Ukraine to the extent possible.”

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Key points:

Five days after historic floods that killed at least 66 people and affected 100,000 homes, Mexico is still scrambling to get help to the worst-hit communities and locate 75 missing people amid criticism of the government’s handling of the crisis.After a year of meteoric approval ratings, the disaster is a test for Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has encountered rare hostile crowds and heckling on visits to affected areas.

The disaster began when torrential rains in the central and eastern parts of the country set off landslides, caused rivers to overflow and bridges to collapse. Whole streets were washed away.Antonio Ocaranza, a political analyst based in Mexico City, said that while he has been impressed by Sheinbaum's willingness to be on the ground during the recovery, it belies a bigger problem."There is a problem of competence in the initial reaction to the tragedy," he said, adding that officials were slow in providing necessary machinery to some areas.

SCRAPPING OF DISASTER FUND

The disaster has also fueled questions about the government’s reliance on the military to handle a growing list of responsibilities, from managing airports to constructing major infrastructure projects and distributing disaster relief.Sheinbaum’s predecessor and political mentor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, spearheaded the elimination of the country’s Natural Disaster Fund (Fonden), saying it was beset by corruption. Sheinbaum defended that decision, saying on Tuesday that “defending Fonden is like defending corruption.”

But the dismantling of Fonden has raised questions of where her government will find the money needed for the response.She said the federal government has 19 billion pesos ($1.03 billion) available for emergencies, of which around 3 billion pesos have been used. “There are sufficient resources to address the emergency.”On Wednesday, in the state of San Luis Potosi, Sheinbaum said government aid would be given in two stages: cleanup, which she said would happen next week, followed by “support” depending on the damage suffered by each home. After that, the government would help with roads and drainage.

In 2023, following the devastating Hurricane Otis in the resort town of Acapulco, the government gave cash transfers of between $400 and $3,250 per affected household depending on the level of damage.Deputy Gibran Ramirez of the opposition center-left Citizens’ Movement party criticized the government’s response to the latest disaster as unprepared and “lamentable.”“There’s no capacity to respond. It’s always the same response - improvisation,” he said. “And just like in Guerrero after Hurricane Otis, the government will make direct cash transfers to calm the social anger.”

FLOODS CAME WITHOUT WARNING

The floods largely caught the government flat-footed. “There were no scientific or meteorological conditions that could have indicated to us that the rainfall would be of this magnitude,” Sheinbaum told reporters on Monday, adding that the government had been focused on two separate storms off the Pacific coast.The torrential rains off the Gulf Coast came toward the end of the rainy season, battering land and bursting rivers that had already been soaked by months of rain. The worst-affected states are Veracruz, Hidalgo and San Luis Potosi.

On Sunday, Sheinbaum confronted an angry crowd of people searching for their relatives in the southeastern state of Veracruz, where at least 29 people have died. Some yelled that they had been in the zone for three days looking while others pushed photos of missing people at her.Struggling to make herself heard, Sheinbaum said: “Everyone will be attended to. We are not going to hide anything.”

Source: TradingView

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran advocated for accelerated interest rate cuts due to rising US-China trade tensions at CNBC's event on October 16, 2025.

His remarks highlight looming economic risks and potential policy shifts, significantly affecting market sentiment and cryptocurrency trends.

Fed Signals Urgent Rate Cuts Amid Growing Trade Tensions

Stephen Miran highlighted increased uncertainty due to trade tensions, stating it’s now crucial to shift US monetary policy to a more neutral stance. This call for action reflects the economic pressures from current geopolitical strains. "If you hit the economy with a shock when policy is very restrictive, the economy will react differently than it would if policy was not as restrictive… it's even more important now than a week ago, that we move quickly to a more neutral stance," said Miran.

As a consequence, the likelihood of further interest rate reductions is high, bolstering overall expectations of easing. This adjustment is driven by the elevated risk profile, suggesting a strategic pivot in monetary policy to alleviate economic stressors. Immediate implications revolve around mitigating potential shocks affecting market stability.

Market analysts note growing investor anticipation for rate cuts, leading to heightened volatility in financial markets. Key financial figures, including Jerome Powell, share Miran's sentiment, further signaling indications of imminent monetary policy alterations. Such consensus from top policymakers adds weight to Miran’s urgency.

Analysts from Coincu suggest that pushing towards a neutral policy could stabilize traditional markets while potentially impacting digital assets. Historical trends show that a dovish Federal Reserve often correlates with increased liquidity in cryptocurrencies, possibly propelling risk asset flows into sectors like DeFi and crypto staking. Enduring policy shifts give room for dynamic market adaptation.

Source: CryptoSlate

Russian forces have suffered over 300,000 casualties so far in 2025 and over 1 million since the war began.The Russian military is advancing across several axes of advance in Ukraine. Russia’s gains are not groundbreaking, but they are gains. Russian progress, however, does not come cheap. The Russian forces have suffered over 300,000 casualties so far in 2025 and over 1 million since the war began.

Russian Casualty Trends

According to the latest intelligence estimate by the British Ministry of Defence, the Russian forces have likely sustained approximately 332,000 casualties, including killed and wounded troops, so far in 2025. In comparison, Russia lost approximately 420,000 troops in 2024.According to the Ukrainian General Staff, an average of 950 Russian troops have been killed and wounded every day. This marks an increase from the reported Russian losses in August, when the Russian military, paramilitary units, and pro-Russian separatist forces lost an average of 931 troops killed and wounded every day. Moreover, since March, the Russian average daily casualties have been steadily decreasing.

“Russia’s decreased monthly casualty rate has been sustained at the same time as Russian forces have maintained a high operational tempo across the frontline, and Russia has continued to make incremental territorial gains,” the British Ministry of Defence concluded in its latest intelligence assessment.The most likely explanation for this decrease in casualties at a time of territorial progress is a change in tactics. It seems that Russian commanders are replacing mass infantry attacks with more sophisticated tactics that even verge on combined arms warfare.However, October seems to be particularly deadly for the Russian forces thus far. The Russian military has lost an average of over 1,000 troops killed or wounded in seven days.

Interesting Casualty Facts

Overall, the Russian military, paramilitary units, and pro-Russian separatist forces have suffered approximately 1,118,000 losses since Russia launched the large-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

In over three years of fighting, the Russian forces have lost more than five times the initial invasion force, which numbered approximately 200,000 men. With a doubt, the Kremlin’s “special military operation,” at least in its initial conception, has failed. Russian military and intelligence officials expected a quick campaign that would last between three days and two weeks. Pre-invasion intelligence assessments estimated that the Ukrainian people would welcome the invading Russian troops with open arms and flowers. In reality, however, invading Russian troops were met with FIM-92 Stinger and FGM-148 Javelin missiles.

The month with the highest number of daily average losses is December 2024, when the Russian forces lost an average of 1,570 men killed and wounded every day. That is an absurdly high level of losses for a supposedly sophisticated military force. The month with the lowest losses is June 2022, when the Russian forces lost an average of 172 troops killed and wounded every day.

Overall, the Russian forces have lost an average of more than 1,000 men daily over the last 15 months. Moreover, in five out of those months, the Russian forces lost an average of over 1,300 troops. In comparison, a US Army or Marine Corps battalion has up to 1,000 men. Thus, the Russian military has been losing a battalion worth of troops every day for more than 15 months.In addition, the Russian forces have lost an average of more than 800 men daily for 23 months.

Source: The National Interest

Australia’s unemployment rate spiked unexpectedly to a near four-year high in September as more people went looking for work, while employment bounced only modestly, a weak reading that adds to the case for further cuts in interest rates.

Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics out on Thursday showed net employment rose 14,900 in September from August, when it fell a revised 11,800. That was under market forecasts of a 20,000 gain, while full-time jobs edged up 8,700 after a steep drop the previous month.

The jobless rate jumped to 4.5%, the highest since November 2021, against forecasts of a rise to 4.3%, while the participation rate ticked up to 67.0%. Hours worked rose 0.5%, reversing a drop in August.

Source: Investing