Asian Markets Edge Higher as Investors Brace for U.S. Jobs Data and Trump’s Tax Bill Vote

AustralianSuper Strengthens Private Equity Push With New Partnerships

New York Expansion Supports Global Private Equity Strategy

Shift From Listed to Unlisted Assets Amid Tech-Heavy Market Bias

Tariff Volatility Doesn’t Derail Equity Exposure

Strategic Rebalancing to Navigate Market Complexity

Source: Bloomberg

Republicans in the House of Representatives on Wednesday struggled to pass President Donald Trump's massive tax-cut and spending bill as a handful of hardliners withheld their support over concerns about its cost.

As lawmakers shuttled in and out of closed-door meetings, House Speaker Mike Johnson said he was trying to convince the holdouts to back Trump's signature bill, telling reporters, "We are planning on a vote today."

With a narrow 220-212 majority, Johnson can afford no more than three defections from his ranks, and sceptics from the party's right flank said they had more than enough votes to block the bill.

“He knows I am a ‘no’. He knows that I don't believe there are the votes to pass this rule the way it is,” Republican Representative Andy Harris of Maryland, leader of the hardline Freedom Caucus, told reporters.

Trump, who is pressing lawmakers to get him the bill to sign into law by the July 4 Independence Day holiday, met with some of the dissenters at the White House. But with the outcome uncertain, Republican leaders delayed a procedural vote for hours as they worked to shore up support.

The Senate passed the legislation, which nonpartisan analysts say will add US$3.4 trillion to the nation's US$36.2 trillion in debt over the next decade, by the narrowest possible margin on Tuesday after intense debate on the bill's hefty price tag and US$900 million in cuts to the Medicaid healthcare programme for low-income Americans.

Representative Lisa McClain, who chairs the House Republican Conference, told Reuters she expected her colleagues to work through procedural votes and bring the bill to a vote before the full House on Wednesday night.

“I think we will put it on the floor tonight. It may be 10 or 11 o'clock," McClain said.

Democrats are united in opposition to the bill, saying that its tax breaks disproportionately benefit the wealthy while cutting services that lower- and middle-income Americans rely on. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that almost 12 million people could lose health insurance as a result of the bill.

"This bill is catastrophic. It is not policy, it is punishment," Democratic Representative Jim McGovern said in debate on the House floor.

Trump effect

Republicans in Congress have struggled to stay united in recent years, but they also have not defied Trump since he returned to the White House in January.

Representative Chip Roy of Texas was leading three holdouts who have raised concerns about increasing the deficit and high levels of spending.

Asked why he expects the bill to pass, Republican Representative Derrick Van Orden told reporters: “Because 77 million Americans voted for Donald Trump, not Chip Roy. That's why.”

Any changes made by the House would require another Senate vote, which would make it all but impossible to meet the July 4 deadline.

The legislation contains most of Trump's top domestic priorities, from tax cuts to immigration enforcement.

The bill would extend Trump's 2017 tax cuts, cut health and food safety net programmes, fund Trump's immigration crackdown, and zero out many green-energy incentives. It also includes a US$5 trillion increase in the nation's debt ceiling, which lawmakers must address in the coming months or risk a devastating default.

The Medicaid cuts have also raised concerns among some Republicans, prompting the Senate to set aside more money for rural hospitals.

Source: Theedgemarkets

European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn is worried that inflation staying below 2% for a lengthy period could shift the price outlook of euro-zone consumers.

The ECB is projecting 18 months of inflation below its goal as US tariffs dent confidence and the 20-nation economy struggles to expand. Rehn, who heads Finland’s central bank, said risks are currently two-sided, but is more uneasy about the knock-on effects of the undershoot.

“I’m quite concerned about inflation being below target for an extended period of time,” he told Blomberg TV on Wednesday in Sintra, Portugal, where he’s attending the ECB’s annual retreat. “We have to make sure that will not become persistent and become embedded in inflation expectations.”

With price growth at the ECB’s 2% goal and the economy battling headwinds ranging from trade to wars, officials are pondering whether to lower borrowing costs further. While investors expect the deposit rate to remain at 2% this month, they see one more cut by year-end.

“We are in a good place but there is no reason for complacency,” Rehn said.

Some officials are wondering whether a rapid strengthening of the euro could derail efforts to anchor inflation at target. Vice President Luis de Guindos told Bloomberg TV on Tuesday that any rise above $1.20 could make things “much more complicated.”

Rehn repeated standard ECB language on how he and his colleagues don’t aim for a specific level for the common currency, but acknowledged the assistance they’ve had from its rally against the dollar this year.

“The appreciation of the euro has indeed helped us reaching the 2% target for now,” he said. “We are following closely the developments in the exchange rate.”

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Employment at US companies fell in June for the first time in more than two years, reflecting a drop in services payrolls that may raise concerns about a more pronounced labor market slowdown.

Private-sector payrolls decreased 33,000 last month after a downwardly revised 29,000 gain in May, according to ADP Research data released Wednesday. None of the economists in a Bloomberg survey of economists expected a decline.

“Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month,” Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, said in a statement.

Treasury yields slumped after the figures, while stock-index futures fell and the dollar trimmed gains.

Employers have grown increasingly cautious about the impact from the Trump administration’s trade policy, and are doubling up efforts to reduce costs. Companies are focused on bringing headcounts more in line with economic activity that has slowed this year.

Service providers reduced payrolls by 66,000 in June, largely due to declines in professional and business services as well as health care and education. Payrolls climbed in manufacturing, construction and mining. Employment fell among small- and medium-size businesses.

Based on the ADP report, average payrolls growth over the past three months slowed to 18,700 in May, the weakest since early in the pandemic. Other data indicate it is taking longer for unemployed people to find a new job, while figures from placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas show hiring plans in June were the second-weakest in data back to 2004.

Data from The Conference Board show the share of consumers who said jobs were plentiful in June declined to a more than four-year low.

Despite signs of a downshift, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has repeated that the labor market remains solid. Fed officials have refrained from lowering interest rates this year as they wait to see the impact of tariffs on inflation.

The ADP report, published in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, showed wage growth cooled. Workers who changed jobs saw a 6.8% increase in pay, while those who stayed put saw a 4.4% gain. ADP bases its findings on payrolls covering more than 25 million US private-sector employees.

The government’s June employment report due Thursday is expected to show the slowest payrolls growth in four months and a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Japan's service sector activity expanded at a slightly faster pace in June, with business confidence improving to a four-month high, a private sector survey showed on Thursday.

The final au Jibun Bank Japan Services purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 51.7 in June from 51.0 in May, topping the flash figure of 51.5 and marking a third consecutive month of growth.

Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in activity, while those below that level point to a contraction on a monthly basis.

Overall new order growth accelerated slightly from May. But the increase in new export business, generally attributed to tourist activities, decelerated to the slowest since December.

Service firms' business confidence on a 12-month outlook improved to a four-month high in June, with companies citing expansion plans, staff hiring and new product rollouts, according to the survey. As a result, employment in the sector grew at the fastest pace since January.

Input price inflation eased to a six-month low, but output inflation rose to the fastest rate in 14 months, as service firms continued to pass higher labour, fuel and other costs onto their customers.

The upturn in services, coupled with factory activities' return to growth for the first time in about a year, helped lift the composite PMI to 51.5 in June from 50.2 in May, marking the strongest overall business activity growth since February.

"However, market confidence and trading conditions remain subdued, in part due to lingering uncertainty over U.S. tariffs," said Annabel Fiddes, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which compiled the survey.

"The PMI data signalled that overall growth momentum slowed in the second quarter compared to the first quarter of 2025, to suggest an easing of GDP growth," Fiddes added.

Japan's GDP shrank by an annualised 0.2% in the January-March quarter due to falling exports and lacklustre domestic consumption even before the full blow of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs hit the economy.

Source: Reuters

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Rachel Reeves will stay on as Chancellor of the Exchequer, as he sought to draw a line under speculation about her future that sparked a bond selloff.

Reeves would stay as chancellor “for many years to come,” Starmer told the BBC on Wednesday evening, hours after failing to guarantee her position when asked in parliament. “She and I work together, we think together,” he said, adding, “We’re in lockstep.”

The prime minister’s words appeared to be an attempt to calm markets that tumbled earlier Wednesday after a tearful appearance by Reeves in the House of Commons fueled rumors that she was about to leave her position.

The premier, who guided the Labour Party to a resounding electoral win a year ago, said he saw his project to “change the country” as something he would be working on with Reeves “together” for “a very long time to come.” He added, “That’s the strong relationship we have between each other.”

The yield on 30-year gilts earlier rose more than 20 basis points past 5.4% on the uncertainty, while the pound was the worst-performing major currency in the world, slumping more than 1% to below $1.36. Stocks also fell.

The market slide came after Starmer performed an embarrassing U-turn on his flagship welfare reforms which were supposed to save £5 billion but were effectively canceled on Tuesday after a rebellion by Labour lawmakers.

Despite Reeves’ failure to get her spending plans past her own party, many bond traders see her as their preferred chancellor because of her commitment to the so-called fiscal rules restricting UK government borrowing. They see a downside risk that a replacement could adopt a looser approach to the public finances.

Starmer said of Reeves crying in the House of Commons chamber earlier, “It was a personal matter for the chancellor, and I’ve been absolutely clear with you, nothing to do with politics, nothing to do with any discussion between me and Rachel. Nothing to do with matters of this week.”

Source: Bloomberg Europe