A Divided Fed? Trump’s Influence Raises Fears of Supreme Court-Style Partisanship

Economic

Summary:

Political tensions are reshaping the internal dynamics of the U.S. Federal Reserve. With President Trump pressuring for rate cuts and attempting to appoint loyalists, analysts warn the Fed may start resembling the ideologically split Supreme Court marked by dissent, politicization...

Trump’s Second Term Reignites Political Friction with the Fed

Since returning to the Oval Office, President Trump has resumed his combative stance toward the Federal Reserve, pushing for aggressive rate cuts and harshly criticizing Chair Jerome Powell. His threats to remove Governor Lisa Cook and her refusal to resign amid unproven accusations illustrate a deepening rift between the executive branch and the traditionally independent central bank.

The latest catalyst: Trump’s appointment of Stephen Miran, a vocal critic of Fed independence, to replace outgoing Governor Adriana Kugler. Miran, known for co-authoring a 2024 paper advocating reforms to reduce the Fed’s autonomy, reflects Trump’s broader strategy to reshape the Fed from within.

The Court Analogy: Governors Staying Longer to Block Opposing Agendas

According to Ian Katz at Capital Alpha Partners, the Fed is starting to resemble the U.S. Supreme Court not just in ideological division but also in strategic tenure. Traditionally, Fed governors step down before their 14-year terms end. But now, some may remain until a president from their own party returns to power a tactic reminiscent of justices waiting for a sympathetic White House to name their replacement.

Lisa Cook, for example, was appointed by President Biden and is entitled to serve until 2038. She now faces open hostility from Trump officials, including threats of termination. Yet her resolve to stay signals a new era where governors entrench themselves to protect institutional independence.

Similarly, Jerome Powell’s future is uncertain. Though his chairmanship ends in May 2026, his governor role extends until January 2028. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called on him to resign after his term as chair ends, citing tradition. Powell has declined to comment, maintaining strategic ambiguity.

Why This Matters: Rate Decisions, Governance, and Regional Fed Control

While three Trump-appointed governors won’t tilt policy decisions on the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) which includes regional Fed presidents a fourth appointment would give Trump a majority on the seven-member Board of Governors. That shift could influence key areas such as budget allocation, staffing, and the approval of regional Fed presidents.

In February 2026, the five-year terms of all regional Fed presidents expire. A Trump-controlled board could reshape leadership at regional banks, which have voting roles on the FOMC allowing the White House to subtly tilt rate-setting decisions toward dovish, growth-favoring policies.

Consensus at Risk: Unanimous Rate Decisions Could Become Rare

Historically, Fed rate decisions are marked by near-unanimous votes. Even one dissent is rare. But that pattern may be changing. In July, two Trump-appointed governors broke ranks, voting for rate cuts despite the broader FOMC holding rates steady. A similar split is anticipated in the upcoming September meeting, as Powell cautiously signaled openness to easing, but hawkish voices remain notably Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid.

This dissent mirrors the ideological fissures of the Supreme Court, where 5-4 decisions are the norm. If the Fed becomes similarly fractured, it could inject uncertainty into markets and weaken the perception of central bank neutrality.

An Existential Risk to the Fed’s Independence?

Analysts at JPMorgan warn that Miran’s appointment could pose an “existential threat” to the Federal Reserve. If Trump pursues legislative changes to the Federal Reserve Act, the very structure and autonomy of the institution could be altered transforming the Fed from an apolitical body into a partisan battlefield.

Whoever succeeds Powell as Fed Chair in 2026 will face a more divided board and a politically charged environment. Like the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, the Fed Chair is only one vote yet their leadership, persuasion skills, and ability to broker consensus will be tested like never before.

As Trump continues his campaign to mold the Fed in his image, the central bank’s future independence, credibility, and cohesion may hang in the balance.

Source: Fortune

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Michelle

Economic

(Aug 25): Credit-rating firm Fitch on Monday maintained its long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating on India at 'BBB-', citing the country's strong economic growth and resilient external finances.

"India's economic outlook remains strong relative to peers, even as momentum has moderated in the past two years," Fitch said in a statement.

The agency forecast GDP growth of 6.5% for the fiscal year ending March 2026 (FY26), unchanged from FY25, and well above the 'BBB' median of 2.5%.

Fitch's rating comes days after S&P Global Ratings lifted its sovereign credit rating on India, citing strong economic growth, marking its first upgrade in 18 years.

Economic Affairs Secretary Anuradha Thakur had then said she expects other rating agencies to take note of the factors behind S&P's upgrade and follow suit.

Domestic demand will remain "solid" helped by the government's ongoing capital spending drive and steady private consumption, Fitch said, but flagged that private investment will remain moderate due to risks from US tariffs.

US President Donald Trump has threatened to double tariffs on Indian goods to 50% — among the highest rates imposed on Washington's trade partners — targeting India's oil purchases from Russia. The 50% tariffs are set to kick in from Aug 27.

"US tariffs are a moderate downside risk to our forecast," Fitch said, adding that they will reduce India's ability to benefit from supply chain shifts out of China if tariff levels fail to be negotiated lower.

"Proposed goods and services tax (GST) reforms, if adopted, would support consumption, offsetting some of these growth risks," Fitch added, referring to the tax restructuring promises made by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier this month.

Source: Theedgemarkets

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Research Suggests Room for More U.S. Debt But with Caveats

At the 2025 Jackson Hole economic symposium, a group of prominent economists Adrien Auclert (Stanford), Hannes Malmberg (University of Minnesota), Matthew Rognlie (Northwestern), and Ludwig Straub (Harvard) unveiled a provocative scenario: the United States could theoretically sustain public debt levels as high as 250% of GDP in the long run without driving up interest rates.

This projection comes amid growing political tension over America’s fiscal path, especially following the July passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” a sweeping Republican-backed law that expands government spending. As of late 2024, publicly held federal debt had already reached 97% of GDP.

Demographics vs. Debt Supply

The authors argue that the interplay between an aging population and government borrowing is at the heart of this dynamic. As people live longer and seek secure investment options like U.S. Treasurys, the demand for government debt rises. This rising appetite for safe assets particularly among retirees could offset the inflationary pressure of increasing debt issuance.

In this “base case” scenario, interest rates could remain stable despite higher debt, so long as fiscal discipline remains intact and reforms are implemented gradually over time.

Warning Signs for Delayed Action

However, the research warns of a tipping point: if fiscal policy does not adjust in time, the supply of government debt could exceed market demand. That imbalance would force the Treasury to offer higher yields to attract investors, pushing interest rates up and raising debt-servicing costs for the government.

To avoid such a scenario, the authors estimate the government would need to implement fiscal adjustments equivalent to at least 10% of GDP. If these reforms are delayed or absent, public debt could become unsustainable beyond the year 2100.

Official Forecasts Reflect Growing Concerns

The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), in its January report, projected that the debt-to-GDP ratio would rise to 117% by 2034. Following the enactment of the new law, the CBO revised its projections upward by an additional 9.5 percentage points.

In presenting the findings at Jackson Hole, Professor Ludwig Straub emphasized that the model accounts for long-term trajectories, not just current political dynamics. The paper introduces a nuanced understanding of how structural demographic changes and financial behavior can influence fiscal sustainability, even under high-debt conditions.

The study challenges traditional assumptions that skyrocketing debt must inevitably lead to higher interest rates. Instead, it suggests that investor behavior and demographic shifts can moderate these effects provided the government makes timely and substantial fiscal adjustments. In short, it's not just how much debt the U.S. holds, but how it manages that debt that will define future financial stability.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Stocks

Tokenised Stocks Under Scrutiny

Tokenised stocks digital tokens on blockchains that simulate ownership of traditional equities are drawing growing interest from crypto platforms and fintech innovators. While these tokens promise benefits such as lower trading costs, faster settlement, and 24/7 accessibility, they have sparked concern from traditional stock exchanges worldwide.

In a formal letter to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), and the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO), the World Federation of Exchanges (WFE) called for immediate regulatory intervention. The WFE argues that these tokens pose systemic risks by misleading investors and undermining the legal framework that governs traditional securities.

Lack of Rights and Safeguards

Unlike conventional shares, tokenised stocks do not confer legal ownership of the underlying asset. Investors buying these tokens do not gain voting rights, dividend entitlements, or shareholder protections. The WFE warned that the distinction is often blurred in marketing, potentially misleading retail investors into believing they hold actual equity.

“These products are marketed as stock tokens or the equivalent to stocks when they are not,” the WFE wrote. The group expressed alarm at the growing number of brokers and crypto platforms including but not limited to Coinbase and Robinhood offering or planning to offer tokenised U.S. stocks.

Reputational Risks for Issuers

The exchanges also emphasized that companies whose stocks are mimicked could face reputational fallout if a platform offering their tokens collapses or engages in unethical conduct. According to WFE CEO Nandini Sukumar, several issuers have already raised such concerns directly with their exchanges.

Beyond market reputation, the issue raises deeper concerns about regulatory arbitrage and the fragmentation of investor protection standards across jurisdictions. The WFE is pushing for a harmonized global approach to ensure tokenised stocks are subject to the same rules as conventional securities.

Regulatory Momentum Building

The SEC has already hinted at stronger oversight. In July, a commissioner reaffirmed that tokenised securities must comply with existing securities laws. Meanwhile, Robinhood has rolled out tokenised equity offerings in the European Union, and Coinbase is reportedly seeking SEC approval for similar products in the U.S.

WFE’s letter strengthens the case for immediate regulatory clarity. The group insists regulators must establish legal frameworks governing token ownership, apply traditional securities rules, and prohibit marketing these tokens as stock equivalents unless they confer genuine shareholder rights.

The emergence of tokenised equities highlights the tension between fintech innovation and established market infrastructure. While offering potential efficiency gains, these digital instruments risk undermining investor protections and destabilizing public trust in securities markets if left unchecked. The call from global exchanges marks a critical inflection point in the debate over what constitutes a security in the digital age and how best to regulate it.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Blue River

Technical Analysis

The euro strengthened against the US dollar on Friday following a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, closing the week on a positive note. While Powell acknowledged the potential for an interest rate cut as soon as September, he refrained from making any explicit commitments.

The EUR/USD pair rose to 1.1728, reaching its highest level since 28 July.

Market expectations for a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting (16–17) now stand at 85%. For the remainder of the year, market pricing points to a more dovish outlook, with an average of 54 basis points of easing anticipated, up from 48 basis points previously.

Investor attention is now shifting to labour market data. Powell noted that the market is in an unusual balance, with both demand for and supply of workers slowing. The trajectory of employment will be a key determinant for the Fed’s future policy decisions.

An additional factor weighing on the dollar is the growing scrutiny surrounding the Fed’s independence. Last week, US President Donald Trump called for the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook and suggested she could be dismissed. This has further fuelled concerns about political pressure being exerted on the central bank.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, the market has formed a consolidation range around the 1.1566 level. Following an upward breakout, the corrective wave appears to have completed at the 1.1742 high. The primary focus is now on the potential initiation of a new bearish wave targeting the 1.1550 level. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains below zero and is pointing decisively lower.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market completed an ascending wave to the 1.1742 level and subsequently formed a consolidation range below it. The price has now broken downwards out of this range. The immediate outlook suggests a high probability of a further decline towards the 1.1664 support level. Following this, a corrective bounce towards 1.1694 is possible. The broader structure is then expected to resume its downward trajectory, targeting 1.1590, with the ultimate bearish objective for the wave structure seen at 1.1550. This view is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is currently below the 50 midline and is trending sharply lower towards the 20 level.

Conclusion

While fundamental drivers from the Fed provided a lift, the technical picture suggests the euro’s rally may be limited in the near term.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Solid July Numbers Offer Temporary Boost

Thailand’s export sector delivered an 11% increase in July compared to a year earlier, outperforming the Reuters poll forecast of 9.6%. This performance, however, marked a slowdown from June’s 15.5% surge, suggesting momentum was already beginning to taper off. The Ministry of Commerce attributed the strong July figures to accelerated shipping activity before new U.S. tariffs on Thai goods were enforced.

For the January–July period, exports grew by a robust 14.4%, providing a buffer to the full-year forecast. Despite the upbeat seven-month tally, the ministry remains cautious, holding to its annual export growth projection of just 2% to 3%. Officials noted that while the strong early-year performance may boost the yearly outcome, double-digit export growth for 2025 is unlikely.

Tariffs Disrupt Growth Outlook

The core challenge facing Thailand’s trade outlook is the new 19% tariff imposed by the U.S. on a broad range of Thai exports. While lower than the initially announced 36%, the tariff still poses significant headwinds. Many importers rushed orders ahead of the new policy, inflating short-term figures but pulling demand forward at the expense of future months.

Trade Policy and Strategy Office chief Poonpong Naiyanapakorn stressed that the export sector would likely lose steam in the final five months of the year as the artificial bump from front-loaded shipments fades.

Adding complexity, uncertainties linger regarding U.S. enforcement on transshipments goods exported from third countries via Thailand which could further weigh on trade if restrictions tighten.

Key Markets Still Active

Despite looming barriers, Thailand’s exports to the U.S. in July soared by 31.4% year-on-year, reinforcing America’s role as Thailand’s top trade partner, accounting for 18.3% of exports last year. Shipments to China, another critical market, also jumped 23.1%, reflecting resilient regional demand even amid global trade tensions.

Imports rose 5.1% in July, slightly above expectations, signaling that domestic demand and production-related purchases remain healthy. More notably, the trade balance showed a surplus of $320 million, a sharp contrast to the expected $500 million deficit. This suggests exporters’ pre-tariff activity outpaced import needs, temporarily boosting the trade account.

Thailand’s stronger-than-expected July exports offer a short-term reprieve, but the broader outlook remains clouded by geopolitical trade shifts and tariff uncertainties. While the annual growth target remains within reach, the possibility of a sharper-than-expected downturn looms, especially if demand from major partners such as the U.S. weakens under the weight of trade restrictions. The second half of 2025 will test Thailand’s export resilience in a more protectionist global environment.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Dark Current

Economic

Commodity

Oil prices climbed on Monday as traders weighed concerns that Russian supply could be disrupted by more U.S. sanctions and Ukrainian attacks targeting energy infrastructure in Russia.

Brent crude futures rose 29 cents, or 0.4%, to $68.02 at 0839 GMT, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 36 cents, or 0.6%, to $64.02.

"The market is somewhat concerned that these peace negotiations are going nowhere," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

"The market is looking for supply to exceed demand in the autumn months, but in the short term that's being challenged by a potential geopolitical disruption."

U.S. President Donald Trump warned again on Friday that he would impose sanctions on Russia if there was no progress toward a peaceful settlement in Ukraine in two weeks. He has also said he may hit India with harsh tariffs over its Russian oil purchases.

Speaking at the weekend, U.S. Vice President JD Vance said Russia had made "significant concessions" toward a negotiated settlement in the three-and-a-half year war.

Ukraine has repeatedly targeted Russian energy infrastructure during the war, and on Sunday carried out a drone attack which sparked a huge blaze at the Ust-Luga fuel export terminal, Russian officials said.

A fire at Russia's Novoshakhtinsk refinery, caused by a Ukrainian drone attack, was burning for the fourth day on Sunday, the region's acting governor said. The refinery sells fuel mainly for export and has an annual capacity of 5 million metric tons of oil, or about 100,000 barrels per day.

Softening the worries about Russian supply disruptions are OPEC+'s reversal of a series of production cuts, which are adding millions of barrels to the market, Saxo Bank's Hansen said.

Eight members of the oil exporters' group are scheduled to meet on September 7 where they are set to approve another boost.

Investors' risk appetite improved following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's signal on Friday of a possible interest rate cut at the U.S. central bank's meeting in September.

But despite that, both benchmark oil prices appear to lack momentum, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova, adding that markets seem increasingly convinced that Trump's tariffs will hit economic growth.