Trump’s National Security Strategy: An Investor Lens

SAXO

Stocks

Economic

Political

Summary:

The Trump administration's National Security Strategy makes it clear that "national security" is not just about defense spending.

Key points:

· Trump's National Security Strategy broadens "security" beyond defense to include borders, resilient infrastructure, energy strength, critical minerals supply chains, and technology leadership.

· That translates into seven practical lanes for investors to watch: defence/border, industrial base, energy dominance, critical minerals, drones, space, and nuclear—each with different drivers and risks.

· The differentiator is follow-through: focus on budget details, program funding, approvals, and contract wins, because headlines often move faster than real activity.

The Trump administration's National Security Strategy makes it clear that "national security" is not just about defense spending. It sets out a broader agenda that links security to how the country is protected, powered, supplied, and technologically equipped.

It prioritises border control and stronger enforcement over entry routes, treating internal security and control of access as foundational. It also highlights the need to protect infrastructure at home—from power systems to transport and communications—so the country can withstand disruption from natural disasters, cyber threats, or hostile actors.

On the military side, the strategy emphasises a more capable and ready force, including missile defense with a homeland focus under the "Golden Dome" concept. Alongside this, it calls for rebuilding the industrial base, with more production capacity onshore and supply chains that can scale in a crisis rather than relying on vulnerable overseas links.

The document also frames energy strength as strategic, explicitly including traditional fuels and nuclear, and points to the importance of the equipment and infrastructure that supports reliable energy supply. It elevates critical minerals as a national security issue as well, recognising that many modern systems depend on materials with concentrated or geopolitically sensitive supply chains.

Finally, it stresses staying ahead in critical technologies—including areas that shape both economic power and military capability—while protecting intellectual property and maintaining an advantage over rivals.

Below we translate the priorities from Trump's National Security Strategy into seven practical lanes, so it's clear what the focus is, why it matters, and which stocks sit closest to it for references (not recommendations).

1) Defence and border security

Border control and homeland security sit alongside "peace through strength." The strategy is clear about modernising the military, improving readiness, and building deterrence, including missile defense for the homeland.

This lane usually has the most direct link to government defence spending and orders, because it includes prime contractors, shipbuilding, secure communications, and mission systems.

What to watch: defence budget details, big programme funding, order backlogs, and major contract wins.

Risks: spending can arrive in waves, not smoothly, and big projects can run over budget or get delayed.

Watchlist: Lockheed Martin (LMT), RTX (RTX), Northrop Grumman (NOC), General Dynamics (GD)

2) Industrial base

The strategy treats the industrial base as part of national security. The message is simple: the U.S. wants the ability to build things at home and scale production when needed.

This lane is often about the "builders and enablers" behind reshoring and national buildout: industrial automation, equipment, aerospace/defense components, and the machinery that powers investment cycles.

What to watch: signs of rising factory and infrastructure spending, order growth, and company guidance on backlog and capacity.

Risks: these businesses are more tied to the economic cycle, so a slowdown can hit demand even if the policy direction stays supportive.

Watchlist: Honeywell (HON), Teledyne Technologies (TDY), Caterpillar (CAT), Deere (DE)

3) Energy dominance

The strategy explicitly frames energy as strategic and includes oil, gas, coal, and nuclear. The point is energy strength at home and the ability to support industry and resilience.

For investors, this is not only about oil prices. It also touches the "plumbing" of energy: grid equipment, electrification hardware, grid buildout services, firm power, and LNG infrastructure.

What to watch: grid upgrade spending, bottlenecks in equipment, policy signals around energy infrastructure, and power demand trends.

Risks: permitting and regulation can slow projects, and commodity-linked parts of the theme can be volatile.

Watchlist: GE Vernova (GEV), Constellation Energy (CEG), Exxon Mobil (XOM)

4) Critical minerals

The strategy talks about reducing dependence on outside powers for key inputs and expanding access to critical minerals and materials.

This matters because modern defence systems, grids, electrification, and advanced manufacturing all rely on materials with concentrated supply chains. Investors often watch not just mining, but also refining and processing capacity.

What to watch: new processing/refining capacity, offtake agreements, permitting progress, and project timelines.

Risks: commodity prices swing, project timelines slip, and many names are more sensitive to headlines than earnings.

Watchlist: MP Materials (MP), USA Rare Earth (USAR), Critical Metals Corp (CRML), Lithium Americas (LAC)

5) Drones

Low-cost drones versus expensive defenses is one of the real-world problems the strategy highlights. It is also a homeland issue, not just a battlefield issue.

Separately, the FY2026 defence bill policy statement points to expanding counter-drone authority through the SAFER SKIES Act.

This lane tends to be higher volatility because a lot of the companies are smaller and contract-driven.

What to watch: contract wins, delivery schedules, and regulatory/authority changes for counter-drone activity.

Risks: smaller companies can swing sharply on single headlines or single contracts, and competition moves fast.

Watchlist: AeroVironment (AVAV), Kratos (KTOS), Ondas (ONDS)

6) Space

National security increasingly depends on satellites for communications, navigation, and surveillance. This theme sits naturally alongside the strategy's focus on modern defence and protecting the homeland.

This lane includes launch and space systems, satellite communications, and earth observation.

What to watch: contract wins, launch cadence, satellite deployment milestones, and funding needs.

Risks: timelines are long, execution risk is real, and newer names can be valuation-sensitive.

Watchlist: Rocket Lab (RKLB), Viasat (VSAT), Planet Labs (PL), AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)

7) Nuclear

The strategy explicitly calls for a modern nuclear deterrent and also includes nuclear within energy dominance.

For investors, nuclear spans several different "sub-stories": uranium supply, fuel services, nuclear components, and advanced reactor development.

What to watch: long-term contracting trends, fuel supply policy signals, project approvals, and buildout timelines.

Risks: the uranium/nuclear trade can be cyclical and headline-driven, and advanced nuclear names carry higher uncertainty.

Watchlist: Cameco (CCJ), Energy Fuels (UUUU), Uranium Energy (UEC)

A simple way everyday investors can think about "adding" these themes

· Consider a small sleeve approach if appropriate to your circumstances, not a full portfolio replacement. These themes can help diversify your sources of return.

· Diversification across lanes may reduce concentration risk. Some are steadier (defence, grid/industrial enablers) and some are more volatile (drones, early-stage minerals, advanced nuclear).

· Real‑world milestones (budgets, awards, approvals, buildouts) can be useful reference points and tend to matter more than speeches.

Bottom line

National security is no longer a single sector story. It is a stack—borders, resilience at home, deterrence, domestic production, energy, materials, and strategic tech. The market will react quickly to the narrative, but the real opportunity is in tracking what actually gets funded and built. Use these seven lanes as a framework and focus on the proof points—budgets, awards, approvals, and buildouts—because that is where the strategy stops being words and starts becoming activity.

Source: SAXO

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James Whitman

Economic

● HSBC, NatWest among lenders set to raise profit targets-sources

● Continental banks also eye higher targets, but hikes risk disappointing investors

● European lenders report earnings this month amid continued share price rally

Britain's biggest banks including HSBC (HSBA.L), and NatWest (NWG.L) are set to follow their European rivals and lift their key profit targets when they report annual earnings in the coming weeks, people close to the matter said.

HSBC is expected to raise its return on tangible equity (ROTE)outlook - a key measure of profitability - above current guidance of "mid teens or better", while NatWest is likely to upgrade its guidance for 2027, currently at 15%, to as much as 17%, two people said.

Barclays (BARC.L), which in October said it expected an ROTE of 12% or above in 2026, should also lift its targets, a third source familiar with the lender said.

Analysts have also said they believe Barclays and HSBC can raise their targets by as much as 200 basis points when they set out guidance for the coming years. They report their earnings on February 10 and February 25, respectively.

In continental Europe, many banks have already lifted their profit goals, signalling confidence higher margins will last for years.

Increased profitability targets show banks expect to keep benefiting from benign interest rate conditions and continued loan and fee income growth, although aiming higher is not without risks and can leave investors disappointed if economies stutter.

Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L) could also lift its targets this year, aiming for ROTE to rise to as much as 18.5% by 2028 from this year's goal of more than 15%, analysts at Jefferies said this month.

The banks all declined to comment.

"UK banks have benefited from earnings resilience lasting longer than initially expected, supported by higher interest rates, robust credit quality and tighter cost control," said Peter Rothwell, head of banking at KPMG UK.

Lloyds and Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) report full-year earnings on Thursday, kicking off the European bank reporting season following a bumper set of numbers on Wall Street.

BANKS ACROSS EUROPE PUSHING PROFITS HIGHER

After years of poor profitability and share performance following the financial crisis, European banking stocks (.SX7P) have more than doubled since early 2024 and risen 60% in the past year - far outpacing U.S. banks.

A chart shows STOXX 600 Europe banks index outperforming KBW US banks in the past 12 months

Among European rivals, Spanish banks Santander (SAN.MC) and BBVA (BBVA.MC) have grown income while keeping costs under control, raising expectations for improved targets.

JPMorgan expects BBVA to have delivered an around 20% ROTE in 2025, broadly in line with 2024, with profitability rising to 22% in 2026 and reaching 26% by 2028.

Santander could target a ROTE by 2028 of around 19–20%, up from 16.1% as of September, Barclays analysts said.

Germany's Deutsche Bank in November set a new ROTE target for 2028 of greater than 13%, up from its 2025 target of 10%.

Analysts expect Deutsche to confirm it met the 2025 target, alongside figures that could show its biggest profit since 2007.

Volatile markets and a flurry of corporate deals should also lift investment bank earnings, buoying the likes of Deutsche, Barclays and UBS (UBSG.S), after most Wall Street banks reported rising revenues and a bullish outlook.

France's Societe Generale (SOGN.PA), BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) and Credit Agricole (CAGR.PA) may buck the trend as higher costs and domestic competition weigh on profits, analysts said.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

Forex

Yen Appreciation Triggers Sell Off In Japanese Stocks

Asian equities opened the week on a softer footing, led by losses in Japan after the yen strengthened notably against the US dollar. The Nikkei 225 fell 1.9% to 52,812.45, dragged down by selling pressure in large export oriented firms. Shares of Toyota Motor Corp. declined 3.2%, reflecting investor sensitivity to currency movements.

A stronger yen typically reduces the competitiveness of Japanese exporters by lowering the value of overseas earnings once converted back into domestic currency. In recent months, the weaker yen had supported equity gains, but this relationship reversed as the dollar slid sharply from levels near 158 yen last week to around 154.26 yen. This move followed signals from both Japanese and US officials that they were prepared to intervene to stabilize the currency. The relationship here is causal rather than coincidental, as exchange rate shifts directly influence earnings expectations for export driven firms.

Mixed Performance Across Regional Markets

Outside Japan, equity movements across Asia were more subdued. South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.6% to 4,961.58, reflecting cautious positioning rather than panic selling. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged down 0.1% to 26,722.89, while mainland China’s Shanghai Composite rose marginally by 0.1% to 4,141.10, suggesting localized resilience despite broader regional weakness.

Markets in Australia, New Zealand, India, and Indonesia were closed, limiting regional liquidity and amplifying the impact of moves in Japan. The divergence across Asian markets highlights correlation rather than direct causation, as local fundamentals and policy expectations continue to shape individual market outcomes.

Currency Moves And Global Risk Appetite

In currency markets, the euro strengthened slightly to $1.1866, while the dollar’s retreat against the yen remained the dominant theme. US equity futures edged lower, with contracts tied to the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average down around 0.3%. This reflected persistent uncertainty surrounding US trade policy and its potential spillover effects on global growth.

Investor caution was reinforced by renewed tariff rhetoric from Donald Trump, who threatened a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Ottawa were to pursue closer trade ties with China. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney pushed back, stating that Canada had no plans for a free trade agreement with Beijing. The exchange underscored how political signals continue to influence market sentiment through expectations rather than immediate policy action.

Wall Street Signals And Policy Expectations

US markets ended the previous week with mixed results. The S&P 500 edged up less than 0.1% to 6,915.61 but still recorded a second consecutive weekly decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% to 49,098.71, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3% to 23,501.24. Weakness was broad based, with Intel’s 17% drop weighing heavily on overall performance.

Attention is now turning to the upcoming policy decision from the Federal Reserve, with markets widely expecting interest rates to remain unchanged. While the anticipated pause is unlikely to be a direct catalyst for near term volatility, it reinforces a backdrop where currency movements and geopolitical developments play a more prominent role in shaping equity trends.

Rising Precious Metals Reflect Defensive Positioning

Commodity markets pointed to a continued shift toward defensive assets. Gold rose 2% to nearly $5,100 an ounce, while silver surged 6.4% to about $108 per ounce. These gains reflect a strong correlation between heightened geopolitical uncertainty, currency volatility, and investor demand for perceived stores of value.

Taken together, the latest market moves suggest that Asian equities are entering a phase where currency dynamics and political signaling are exerting greater influence than traditional growth indicators. As long as intervention risks and trade tensions persist, volatility driven by exchange rates is likely to remain a defining feature of regional markets.

Source: AP

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Samantha Luan

Forex

Cryptocurrency

Key Points:

· ETH rose over 3% on Jan. 26 after a sharp weekend sell-off, tracking a broader crypto rebound.

· Risk-off pressure lingers, with US shutdown fears, weak stock futures, and surging gold weighing on sentiment.

· Technically, ETH broke key support, opening the door to a potential move toward $2,380.

Ethereum's native token, Ether (ETH), showed signs of recovery after dropping by more than 6% during the weekend.

As of Jan. 26, ETH/USD was up by over 3% during the Asian session, mirroring rebounds across the crypto market. The pair rose despite a growing macro risk-off sentiment, with US stock futures recording losses and gold reaching over $5,000 at the start of the week.

ETH/USDT vs. Nasdaq Futures and Gold daily performances. Source: TradingView

US Govt. Shutdown, Canada Tariffs Spook Risk Traders

Over the weekend, markets grew uneasy as renewed worries surfaced about a possible US government shutdown, with lawmakers still divided over funding and the risk of a lapse in federal operations.

Source: X

In the forex market, attention also turned to Japan, where traders noted the possibilities of the New York Fed preparing to support Japanese officials in a direct yen-defence intervention.

The US dollar logged its steepest weekly drop since May, creating dip-buying opportunities in the Ether market and leading to a modest recovery.

US dollar index daily chart. Source: TradingView

ETH ETFs See Over $611 Million in Weekly Outflows

US-listed spot Ethereum ETFs saw about $611.17 million in net outflows over the past week, a sign that institutional demand for Ether has weakened in the near term.

Spot Ethereum ETF net flows. Source: SoSoValue

That pullback matters because ETF flows can act as a steady source of spot buying when sentiment improves. Instead, the outflows suggest large investors were reducing ETH exposure, not adding it.

At the same time, traders have been rotating into other large-cap themes—most notably Solana—further thinning Ether's bid.

Spot Solana ETF net flows. Source: SoSoValue

The result is a rebound that looks more like short-term dip-buying than the start of a stronger, institution-led uptrend.

Rising JGB Yields Tighten Global Liquidity Backdrop for Ether

Japan's 10-year government bond yields have been climbing toward multi-decade highs as investors demand a higher risk premium amid fresh fiscal-spending concerns and Japan's debt load, which sits above 230% of GDP.

Japan's 10-year bond yield daily chart. Source: TradingView

In my view, higher JGB yields can pull capital back toward Japan and reduce the amount of cheap funding circulating through global markets, conditions that typically pressure risk assets.

The macro drag intensified after the Bank of Japan struck a more hawkish tone in its latest outlook, reinforcing expectations that Japan's rate regime may continue shifting higher.

In practice, firmer yields can also strengthen the yen, increasing the risk of a "yen carry-trade unwind," an episode that has previously coincided with broader de-risking across crypto, including Ethereum.

Ethereum Technical Analysis: ETH Risks 17-18% Drop Next

ETH/USD appears to have broken down from an ascending triangle, slipping below the rising support trendline after repeatedly failing near the flat resistance band around the low-$3,300s.

ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

The move also leaves ETH trading under its key moving averages (20-day near $3,049 and 50-day near $3,104), reinforcing bearish momentum. RSI has cooled to sub-40, suggesting sellers remain in control.

If the breakdown holds, the pattern's measured move points toward the $2,380 area as the next downside target.

Source: FX Empire

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Gerik

Economic

Extreme Cold Meets Fragile Grid Conditions

After one of the most damaging winter storms in years swept across the South and Mid-Atlantic, the United States is now facing a prolonged period of severe cold that is intensifying stress on power infrastructure. While snowfall is gradually easing in parts of the Northeast, bone chilling wind chills are expected to persist through the week, driving electricity demand to unprecedented seasonal levels across major population centers.

Grid operators are warning that the challenge is not simply short term disruption but sustained pressure. The prolonged nature of the cold snap matters because electricity systems are designed to handle short peaks rather than extended stretches of maximum load. This creates a causal link between duration of extreme temperatures and the rising probability of supply shortfalls.

PJM And Texas Take Emergency Demand Measures

The warning is most acute within the PJM Interconnection, which spans from Chicago to Washington DC. The operator cautioned that it is preparing for seven consecutive days of extreme winter demand, a scenario it described as unprecedented in its operational history. The severity of the situation has prompted PJM to pay large industrial users, including manufacturers, to curb electricity consumption in order to reduce the risk of rolling residential blackouts.

A similar dynamic is unfolding in Texas, where the grid managed by Electric Reliability Council of Texas is also under strain. Dallas remains under an extreme cold warning, with wind chills forecast to fall to minus 10 degrees Fahrenheit. Tight supply conditions have forced authorities to rely on extraordinary measures to stabilize the system, highlighting how extreme weather and demand growth are structurally linked rather than coincidental.

Energy Prices Surge As Fuel Markets Tighten

The strain on electricity systems is being mirrored in energy markets. US natural gas prices surged as much as 19 percent, rising above six dollars per million British thermal units, a level not seen since 2022. This jump reflects both increased heating demand and concerns about fuel availability for power generation, underscoring a correlation between weather driven demand spikes and commodity price volatility.

Electricity prices have reacted even more sharply. Day ahead power prices for Monday in the PJM territory reached their highest levels since the polar vortex of early 2014. Average on peak prices climbed to 638.73 dollars per megawatt hour. In Texas, power prices in ERCOT’s North hub, which includes Dallas, jumped by roughly 1,200 percent from Sunday averages to 516.25 dollars per megawatt hour, the highest since August 2023. These price movements illustrate how constrained supply directly translates into extreme market outcomes.

Environmental Waivers And Emergency Federal Action

As grid stress intensified, operators sought federal waivers to bypass certain pollution limits, allowing power plants to operate at maximum output using fuels such as coal and diesel. The US Energy Department issued an emergency order authorizing PJM to run plants regardless of environmental restrictions or state level limits. In Texas, authorities were directed to activate backup diesel generators at data centers during periods of acute stress.

These actions reflect a clear cause and effect relationship between grid reliability risks and regulatory flexibility. When supply security becomes the dominant concern, environmental constraints are temporarily relaxed to prevent widespread outages.

Widespread Outages And Infrastructure Damage

Beyond market stress, physical damage to infrastructure remains a major challenge. Ice accumulation exceeding 0.75 inches coated large areas of Tennessee, Mississippi, and Louisiana, weighing down trees and power lines. More than 950,000 homes and businesses were without power in New York alone by Sunday evening, while some Tennessee counties, including the one encompassing Nashville, saw outages affecting more than 90 percent of customers.

The ongoing freeze increases the risk of further outages as ice continues to snap tree limbs and lines. In Mississippi, the situation deteriorated to the point that some weather stations went offline, complicating response efforts for emergency services and government forecasters.

Transportation And Social Disruption Multiply Economic Costs

The storm’s impact has extended well beyond the power sector. Thousands of flights were canceled nationwide, with more than 2,400 weekday flights already scrapped by Sunday evening, a scale of disruption not seen since the pandemic. Public transit systems across New York and New Jersey were heavily affected, while hazardous road and rail conditions persisted across the Mid-South.

In response, New York City shifted approximately 500,000 public school students to remote instruction on Monday, illustrating how infrastructure stress cascades into social and economic systems rather than remaining confined to energy markets.

Federal Emergency Response And Broader Implications

US President Donald Trump approved emergency aid for a dozen states impacted by the storm, unlocking federal resources and reimbursement for services such as sheltering and evacuations. While this support may alleviate immediate hardships, the episode highlights deeper structural concerns.

The convergence of extreme weather, aging infrastructure, and rising electricity demand suggests that grid vulnerability is not an isolated event but a recurring risk. As prolonged cold events become more frequent and demand continues to grow, the current crisis serves as a stark reminder that resilience investments, rather than emergency measures alone, will determine the stability of US power systems in the years ahead.

Source: Bloomberg

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Kevin Du

Cryptocurrency

Political

Economic

Remarks of Officials

House Majority Whip Tom Emmer delivered a sweeping assessment of the current U.S. policy direction, crediting President Donald Trump’s administration and Republican leadership with driving economic growth and establishing pro-crypto regulation. Emmer argued that the first year of the administration has yielded historic outcomes in a short period.

Echoing Trump's inaugural theme of a "Golden Age of America," Emmer asserted that close coordination between the White House and congressional Republicans has been key to their progress.

"From passing the largest tax cut in American history to securing the border to rooting out the worst waste, fraud, and abuse that has plagued our government for way too long to making America the crypto capital of the world – President Trump, his all-star cabinet, and Republicans in Congress have worked in tandem to accomplish the impossible," he stated.

Crypto Regulation as a Strategic Priority

Emmer framed regulatory clarity for digital assets as a central economic goal. He presented the development of crypto policy as a powerful tool to attract investment, foster innovation, and secure high-skilled jobs, ultimately reinforcing America's global competitiveness.

He also noted that these objectives were achieved despite political friction, criticizing Democratic resistance and shutdown tactics as obstacles that ultimately failed to derail the Republican agenda. Emmer characterized the current momentum as just the beginning, suggesting that economic, security, and digital asset initiatives are designed to expand significantly beyond their first-year results.

Counterarguments: Economic and Institutional Risks

While the administration's supporters describe these policies as transformative, critics raise concerns about potential long-term risks to the economy and democratic institutions.

Analysts point to several areas of concern:

• Fiscal Impact: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is noted for expanding the federal deficit while simultaneously reducing healthcare access for millions.

• Labor Shortages: Labor economists warn that negative net migration is contributing to workforce shortages, which could weigh on GDP growth.

• Government Dysfunction: The 43-day government shutdown in 2025 is widely seen as an economically damaging failure of negotiation, irrespective of which party is held responsible.

• Governance Concerns: Civil service purges and the expanded domestic use of the military have prompted questions about the erosion of checks and balances.

In response, advocates for digital assets maintain that establishing clear crypto regulations can improve compliance, increase transparency, and facilitate capital formation. They argue that regulated innovation, balanced with prudent oversight, could become a significant driver of productivity and sustained economic growth.

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Gerik

Economic

Escalating Trade Friction Between Washington And Ottawa

The latest strain in United States–Canada relations has been triggered by comments from Donald Trump, who warned that Canada could face a 100% tariff if it proceeds with closer trade cooperation with China. This reaction followed Canada’s preliminary agreement to reduce trade barriers with Beijing earlier in the month. The warning represents a clear political signal rather than an immediate policy action, yet it has introduced a new layer of uncertainty into North American trade relations.

Diplomatic tensions were further highlighted when Trump withdrew an invitation to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to join a newly formed international council linked to post conflict reconstruction efforts. While symbolic, this move reinforced the perception that economic alignment with China could alter Canada’s standing in Washington. The relationship here reflects a correlation between geopolitical alignment and trade pressure, where political positioning appears closely linked to the risk of punitive tariffs.

Japan’s Market Intervention And Global Financial Spillovers

Across the Pacific, Japan added another source of uncertainty. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi dissolved parliament ahead of snap elections scheduled for February 8 and publicly committed to intervening against speculative or abnormal moves in the yen and Japanese government bonds. This pledge followed a period of bond sell offs and currency weakness that unsettled investors.

Japan’s importance as the largest foreign holder of United States Treasurys means that shifts in domestic yields carry global implications. Rising Japanese bond yields may encourage capital repatriation, which in turn could place upward pressure on U.S. borrowing costs. This is not a guaranteed outcome, but it demonstrates a strong correlation between Japanese monetary conditions and U.S. financial market stability.

Market Calm Gives Way To Cautious Positioning

Despite these geopolitical and policy developments, U.S. financial markets initially showed resilience. Treasury yields were largely unchanged at the end of last week, while equity performance was mixed. The S&P 500 remained close to flat, the Nasdaq Composite recorded a modest gain of 0.28%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.58%. This suggests that investors were, at least temporarily, discounting political rhetoric rather than pricing in immediate economic disruption.

However, sentiment shifted as the new trading week began. Futures moved lower on Sunday night as investors prepared for a dense calendar including earnings reports from major technology firms and the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision. Gold prices moving above $5,000 reflected heightened demand for defensive assets, indicating that risk perceptions are evolving even if equity markets have not yet reacted sharply.

Shifting Trade Policies Beyond North America

Elsewhere, India signaled a notable shift in trade policy by planning to reduce tariffs on European Union car imports priced above 15,000 euros. Duties are expected to fall to 40% from levels as high as 110%, with further reductions over time. This move reflects a gradual reorientation toward trade liberalization and contrasts with the more confrontational tone seen in parts of U.S. trade policy. The relationship here highlights correlation rather than direct causation, where global trade fragmentation coexists with selective liberalization in emerging markets.

Investor Focus Turns From Infrastructure To Artificial Intelligence

In China, investor behavior has begun to pivot. Concerns about a potential bubble in AI related infrastructure are prompting a shift toward companies focused on applied AI solutions. This trend underscores a broader narrative emerging from recent global forums, where enthusiasm for artificial intelligence as a productivity driver now competes with growing unease about tariffs, territorial disputes, and geopolitical realignments.

Discussions at the World Economic Forum in Davos illustrated this divide clearly. Optimism around AI’s transition from concept to real world deployment contrasted sharply with persistent anxiety over trade barriers, territorial politics, and the durability of long standing global rules. Taken together, current developments suggest that markets are navigating a period where political signals and economic fundamentals are increasingly intertwined, shaping expectations through correlation rather than immediate policy shifts.

Source: CNBC

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Trump’s National Security Strategy: An Investor Lens

Key points:

1) Defence and border security

2) Industrial base

3) Energy dominance

4) Critical minerals

5) Drones

6) Space

7) Nuclear

A simple way everyday investors can think about "adding" these themes

Bottom line

Source: SAXO

British Banks To Join European Rivals In Hiking Profit Targets, Sources Say

BANKS ACROSS EUROPE PUSHING PROFITS HIGHER

A chart shows STOXX 600 Europe banks index outperforming KBW US banks in the past 12 months

Source: Reuters

Stronger Yen Pressures Asian Equities As Currency Moves Reshape Market Sentiment

Yen Appreciation Triggers Sell Off In Japanese Stocks

Mixed Performance Across Regional Markets

Currency Moves And Global Risk Appetite

Wall Street Signals And Policy Expectations

Rising Precious Metals Reflect Defensive Positioning

Source: AP

Is Ethereum’s Bounce A Trap? ETF Outflows And Japan Risks Further ETH Price Dips

Key Points:

ETH/USDT vs. Nasdaq Futures and Gold daily performances. Source: TradingView

US Govt. Shutdown, Canada Tariffs Spook Risk Traders

Source: X

US dollar index daily chart. Source: TradingView

ETH ETFs See Over $611 Million in Weekly Outflows

Spot Ethereum ETF net flows. Source: SoSoValue

Spot Solana ETF net flows. Source: SoSoValue

Rising JGB Yields Tighten Global Liquidity Backdrop for Ether

Japan's 10-year bond yield daily chart. Source: TradingView

Ethereum Technical Analysis: ETH Risks 17-18% Drop Next

ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Source: FX Empire

Deep Freeze After Winter Storm Puts US Power Grids Under Historic Strain

Extreme Cold Meets Fragile Grid Conditions

PJM And Texas Take Emergency Demand Measures

Energy Prices Surge As Fuel Markets Tighten

Environmental Waivers And Emergency Federal Action

Widespread Outages And Infrastructure Damage

Transportation And Social Disruption Multiply Economic Costs

Federal Emergency Response And Broader Implications

Source: Bloomberg

GOP Touts Pro-Crypto Push and 'Historic' Trump Wins

Crypto Regulation as a Strategic Priority

Counterarguments: Economic and Institutional Risks

Tariff Tensions And Market Crosscurrents Signal A Fragile Global Trade Order

Escalating Trade Friction Between Washington And Ottawa

Japan’s Market Intervention And Global Financial Spillovers

Market Calm Gives Way To Cautious Positioning

Shifting Trade Policies Beyond North America

Investor Focus Turns From Infrastructure To Artificial Intelligence

Source: CNBC

Risk Disclosure