Tariffs Trigger A Shaky Start To The Week

Data Interpretation

Summary:

Action in the FX space, though, was somewhat less optimistic. The common currency drifted lower for much of the day, not helped by some relatively cautious ECB ‘sources’ stories alluding to the possibility of another rate cut, albeit not until the September meeting. Somewhat by default, this EUR weakness saw the greenback gain some ground, though those gains were seen against most G10 peers, most notably the quid, where the grim fiscal reality appears to finally be dawning.

Tariffs Trigger A Shaky Start To The Week

The euro faced headwinds while stocks wobbled on Monday as markets reacted to Trump’s weekend tariff announcements. Today, the latest US CPI figures highlight the docket.

Something of a shaky start to the week, yesterday, as fallout from President Trump’s weekend EU & Mexico tariff announcements continued.

The difficulty here is that, while everyone knows that those tariff letters are almost certainly a negotiating gambit, and that the new levies are highly unlikely to come into effect, we must all still discount even a slim possibility of all this actually coming to pass. Frankly, there is no participant out there who, on 1st August, wants to be having an awkward conversation with their risk desk, trying to explain why they didn’t hedge possibly the most obvious risk on the horizon right now.

In any case, at least in the equity complex, participants were content that they’d adequately hedged by about mid-afternoon here in London, at which point dip buyers re-emerged en masses, seeing major Wall Street benchmarks end the day in the green, with tech leading the gains. In my mind, the path of least resistance continues to lead higher, amid the likely progress towards trade deals, coupled with solid underlying economic and earnings growth. All that keeps the bull case intact, and results in dips remaining as buying opportunities.

That aside, I still don’t see especially much to like about the greenback here, as political uncertainty in DC persists, and as Trump & Co continue to grumble about Chair Powell, while slowly but surely eroding monetary policy independence. The buck remains a sell on rallies to me.

Overall, though, if we’re to make the assumption that this is all setting up for another TACO moment, then it remains Treasuries that rule the roost in determining when such a moment might come to pass. In relatively crude terms, Trump has probably 5% or so of downside in spoos to play with before anyone starts to panic too much, but likely less than 5bp of upside in the benchmark 30-year yield before fear sets in.

We once again saw that 30-year yield come within inches of the 5% mark yesterday, though dip buyers emerged in relatively rapid fashion, with said demand seen most notably at the long-end of the curve. Still, while locking in yields at this level remains an attractive prospect, a convincing move north of that 5% mark does seem to have a bit of an air of inevitability about it.

Perhaps, that will be the real trigger for the TACO trade to come back with a vengeance.

LOOK AHEAD – A busy docket awaits today.

Last month’s US CPI figures highlight proceedings, with the data likely to show the first evidence of tariff-induced price pressures beginning to emerge. Both headline and core CPI are seen rising to their highest annual rates since February, at 2.6% YoY and 2.9% YoY respectively, both vindicating the FOMC’s ‘wait and see’ approach to monetary policy. An approach that, even in the event of a hugely cooler than expected print, will persist at the July confab in a couple of weeks.

Elsewhere, the latest German sentiment surveys are due from the ZEW institute, with the expectations metric seen rising to 50.4, its highest level since March. We’ll also receive eurozone industrial production figures for May, as well as last month’s Canadian CPI report, where the headline metric is set to remain beneath the midpoint of the BoC’s target range.

Besides that, plenty of speakers are due, including four FOMC members, as well as BoE Governor Bailey, who will give his annual Mansion House address. Chancellor Reeves will also be speaking at that gathering, apparently to ‘insist’ that she has a grip on the UK economy; a remark which, frankly, doesn’t fill you with confidence.

来源：Pepperstone

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Bond

Record Issuance in June, Driven by Private Placement

June 2025 marked a breakout month with corporate bond issuance reaching VND 105.5 trillion, a 52.4% increase from May. All issuances were conducted through private placements there were no public offerings. This was the highest monthly issuance of the first half of the year, according to data from FiinGroup.

Cumulatively, from January to June, the total value of bonds issued reached VND 248.6 trillion. Private placements accounted for 88.8% of this total, growing by 72.4%, while public offerings made up only 11.2% (up 62.3%).

Interest Rates and Tenors Remain Stable

Issuance interest rates remained steady. Credit institutions issued bonds with an average interest rate of 5.5% and a tenor of 3.6 years, while non-bank corporates issued at a much higher average rate of 9.8% with a shorter tenor of 2.4 years. These averages have barely changed across the first six months.

Credit institutions dominated issuance in June, accounting for 83.2% of the total, driven by liquidity balancing needs. Credit growth stood at 8.3%, while deposit growth was only 6.1%, prompting greater reliance on bond issuance for funding.

Non-financial corporates made up 24% of total issuance volume. While their proportion declined, they still saw a modest 17.1% recovery in value compared to the same period last year, especially in the real estate segment.

Bond Buybacks and Secondary Market Activity Surge

Bond buybacks also accelerated, with VND 48.7 trillion worth repurchased in June, nearly double the amount from June 2024 and 1.2 times that of May 2025. Credit institutions led the buybacks, accounting for 80.5%, followed by real estate companies at 6%.

Over the first half of the year, total buybacks reached VND 110 trillion up 42.7% year-on-year with banks and real estate firms accounting for 55% and 22.1%, respectively.

The market faces considerable pressure in the second half of 2025, with VND 125 trillion in bonds maturing 53% of which come from the real estate sector, 22.4% from banks, and 8% from trade and services. This includes many previously extended bonds under Decree 08.

Secondary Market Liquidity Remains Strong

In June, the secondary market recorded nearly VND 137.1 trillion in bond transactions, a 19% increase month-on-month. Daily average trading value reached VND 6.53 trillion the highest level in 2025 so far. Over six months, total liquidity rose 13.2% to VND 651 trillion.

The banking and real estate sectors remained the top two in trading volume, accounting for 45.5% and 31.8%, respectively. While banking bonds saw little change, real estate bonds saw a 37.6% jump in liquidity.

In June alone, banking bond transactions reached VND 56.3 trillion (down 11% month-on-month), while real estate bond trades climbed 26% to VND 40.5 trillion, making up 29.6% of total transactions.

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Blue River

Forex

Economic

The USDJPY pair has risen significantly and retains the potential to climb further. The USDJPY forecast for today, 15 July 2025, suggests a possible test of the 148.00 level.

The USDJPY pair continues to climb as the market reacts to trade-related risks. Find more details in our analysis for 15 July 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

●The USDJPY pair continues to rise, hitting fresh two-month highs

●Further details on tariffs and Japanese economic data will provide more insight into yen movements

●USDJPY forecast for 15 July 2025: 148.00

Fundamental analysis

On Tuesday, the USDJPY rate rose to 147.65, marking a new two-month high, as trade risks from new US measures persist.

Washington plans to impose 25% tariffs on Japanese goods starting 1 August, while Tokyo has yet to announce any retaliatory action. Negotiations between the two parties have effectively stalled. One Japanese official warned of potential economic consequences if the tariffs are enforced.

Investors now await upcoming trade and inflation data from Japan, which will help assess the scale of pressure on the domestic economy. In addition, market focus also turns to the US inflation report, which could influence the Federal Reserve's future rate decisions.

The USDJPY forecast is positive.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair is clearly in a strong uptrend since 3 July 2025. Following a period of consolidation between 144.00 and 146.00, with a local bottom formed near 144.00, the yen has lost ground rapidly. USD has strengthened to 147.65 and now approaches the key resistance level of 148.00.

The price confidently trades above the middle Bollinger Band, confirming upside momentum. The nearest support level lies at 147.18, followed by 145.73. If the price breaks above the 148.00 level, the upward wave will likely extend towards new highs.

From a technical standpoint, the outlook remains bullish. Each dip gets bought back, and the upper Bollinger Band is expanding. However, the 148.00 level may act as a short-term barrier to further gains.

Source: RoboForex

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Gerik

Economic

Hopeful Shift in US-EU Trade Tensions Lifts European Stocks

European stock markets opened slightly higher on Tuesday, buoyed by signs of de-escalation in the ongoing transatlantic trade dispute. The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.2% to 547.74 points as of early morning trading, reversing some of the uncertainty triggered by President Trump’s weekend threat to impose sweeping 30% tariffs on European Union imports beginning August 1.

Despite the European Union’s firm stance on Monday, accusing the U.S. of being uncooperative in trade negotiations and warning of retaliatory measures, Trump softened his rhetoric shortly after. He stated that the U.S. remained open to discussions and confirmed that EU officials would travel to Washington in the coming days to pursue further negotiations. This slight pivot helped improve investor sentiment and stabilize markets ahead of the looming deadline.

Auto and Tech Stocks Lead Gains, Telecoms Lag

Within the STOXX 600, automotive stocks jumped 0.9%, partially recovering from recent losses triggered by fears of U.S. tariffs that would disproportionately impact Germany’s export-heavy carmakers. Technology shares were also up 0.8%, riding the broader market momentum, while the telecom sector lagged with a 0.8% decline.

Danish renewable energy company Ørsted saw a particularly strong session, gaining 5.5% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to “Overweight” from “Equal Weight.” The move reflects growing confidence in the offshore wind developer’s fundamentals amid Europe’s green energy push.

Awaiting Key Economic Data and US Bank Earnings

Investors remain cautious, however, with key macroeconomic data still ahead. Eurozone industrial production figures for May and Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for July are expected later today. These will provide further insights into the region’s economic resilience amid geopolitical turbulence and high borrowing costs.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., market focus is shifting to the second-quarter earnings season, with major banks set to report results. Additionally, the release of June’s consumer price index (CPI) later today could influence Fed rate expectations and global investor risk appetite.

Though the STOXX 600’s modest rise reflects cautious optimism, the path forward for European markets remains tied to the outcome of high-stakes U.S.-EU trade talks. Trump’s willingness to reengage in dialogue has temporarily calmed nerves, but the specter of 30% tariffs still hangs over the bloc. Upcoming data and earnings will be critical in shaping short-term investor sentiment as markets balance hope with lingering uncertainty.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

Turning Tariffs into a Weapon for Peace: Trump's New Diplomatic Gamble

In a striking twist on traditional trade policy, U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened 100% secondary tariffs on countries that continue purchasing Russian exports, unless Moscow agrees to end its war in Ukraine within 50 days. Speaking during a high-profile Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump framed these unprecedented measures as a moral imperative, not just a geopolitical tactic.

The proposed secondary tariffs levied not on Russia directly but on its trading partners represent a radical departure from conventional trade sanctions. Trump’s plan is aimed at squeezing Russia’s economic arteries by targeting its oil customers, primarily China, India, and Turkey. According to the International Trade Centre, these three countries accounted for the bulk of Russian exports in 2024, making them potential direct targets of U.S. trade penalties.

While the strategy has garnered criticism for risking a global backlash, some commentators suggest it signals a rare use of economic force in service of peace rather than profit. If successful, it could set a new precedent for enforcing international norms through market-based deterrence.

China’s Resilience and U.S. Markets React Cautiously

Even as these secondary tariffs loom, the global economy shows signs of surprising resilience. China’s second-quarter GDP grew 5.2% year-on-year, slightly exceeding Reuters’ 5.1% forecast. However, the pace slowed compared to Q1’s 5.4% indicating the world's second-largest economy is still feeling the weight of internal challenges, despite outperforming expectations.

Meanwhile, U.S. stock markets responded with modest gains. Investors appeared to shrug off Trump’s intensifying rhetoric, buoyed instead by news that the White House will allow Nvidia to resume chip exports to China. Nvidia confirmed on Tuesday that it will be granted licenses to ship H20 chips designed specifically for China despite ongoing U.S. tech restrictions.

These moves signal a careful balance within the administration: hawkish toward adversaries like Russia, but pragmatically open with China when it serves American commercial and strategic interests.

Gold’s Rally Resumes as Tariff Tensions Rise

In response to the mixed signals from Washington, gold prices rallied 0.5% to $3,360.86 an ounce, reclaiming ground lost earlier this week. The metal’s role as a safe-haven asset has grown stronger amid escalating trade threats and growing investor uncertainty. Although gold recently hit a record high above $3,500, its momentum had paused over the past three months as markets waited for policy clarity.

Now, with the specter of 100% tariffs and global economic fragmentation, analysts remain cautiously bullish. City Index’s Fawad Razaqzada noted that if trade negotiations collapse before August, bullion could surge past its April highs.

A Billion-Dollar Wooden City Takes Root in Europe

Away from geopolitics, Europe is pushing boundaries in sustainable development. In Sickla, on the edge of Stockholm, Sweden is preparing to launch “the world’s largest wooden construction project.” Atrium Ljungberg AB is investing 12 billion SEK (around $1.25 billion) in what it calls Stockholm Wood City an eco-district built from cross-laminated timber. The project signals Europe’s resolve to prioritize sustainability despite market volatility.

As the world’s power players clash over trade and diplomacy, projects like Stockholm Wood City offer a quiet yet powerful counter-narrative where long-term resilience and environmental foresight compete with headline-driven volatility.

Trump’s tariff ultimatum reframes trade as a strategic force in global conflict resolution, opening a provocative chapter in international diplomacy. While risky, it underscores the growing entanglement between commerce and geopolitics in a world where every trade decision doubles as a political signal. Whether this gamble will lead to peace or provoke economic retaliation remains uncertain, but it undoubtedly reshapes the narrative around how tariffs are understood and used.

Source: CNBC

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Economic

Budget Strains Mount as Reeves Prepares Key Policy Speech

Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ upcoming Mansion House speech is shaping up to be one of the most consequential fiscal addresses of the year, as the UK grapples with deepening concerns over its growing budget deficit and sluggish economic outlook. With public debt now hovering near 100% of GDP and the Autumn Budget approaching, investors and analysts are calling for concrete measures to restore market confidence and reinvigorate growth.

Reeves’ statement last year, proclaiming economic growth as a "national mission," has not been convincingly realized, according to market observers. A mix of muted private investment, policy hesitations, and structural fiscal burdens has weighed on sentiment. Now, as the Labour government nears its first full fiscal year in office, expectations are high for a more aggressive roadmap to tackle the UK’s long-term economic fragilities.

Fiscal Dilemma: Revenue Shortfall vs. Political Red Lines

The core of the government’s challenge lies in limited fiscal maneuverability. Despite pledges to maintain the “triple lock” on pensions ensuring annual increases based on the highest of inflation, wage growth, or 2.5% the long-term fiscal burden continues to rise. The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that state pensions could cost up to 7.7% of GDP by the early 2070s, driven by an aging population.

However, with Reeves also promising no tax increases on “working people,” the government has boxed itself in. George Buckley, chief UK economist at Nomura, noted that eliminating a significant portion of tax levers limits flexibility, raising fears that Reeves could turn to politically fraught alternatives such as increased levies on banks or wealth taxes. Yet even these options are problematic: a wealth tax could prompt capital flight, and greater bank levies risk undermining London’s competitiveness in global finance.

Pensions, Red Tape, and Structural Reform on the Agenda

One of the anticipated centerpieces of Reeves’ speech is an overhaul of the UK pension system. With pension costs rising and private savings inadequate for many, the government aims to address long-term financial adequacy without dismantling the politically sensitive triple lock. Potential changes to pension tax reliefs or employer contributions could emerge, although any aggressive reforms may spark backlash.

Meanwhile, the Treasury plans to cut regulatory burdens to stimulate financial sector efficiency. One proposal under review is the partial repeal of the Senior Managers and Certification Regime, which governs accountability for nearly 140,000 professionals in finance. This deregulation push is part of a broader strategy to attract investment and improve productivity, especially as high inflation and weak growth dampen real incomes.

In contrast, recent reports suggest Reeves has abandoned earlier proposals to reform ISAs (Individual Savings Accounts), amid criticism from building societies and consumer advocacy groups. This retreat adds to concerns about policy inconsistency, especially following U-turns on welfare cuts and winter fuel support reversals that have already weakened confidence in the Treasury’s long-term strategy.

Markets Await Concrete Action, Not Rhetoric

With the Autumn Budget looming, the Mansion House speech offers Reeves a platform to stabilize investor expectations and frame a compelling fiscal vision. However, markets are unlikely to be swayed by vague commitments. Analysts warn that unless Reeves outlines specific revenue sources or credible structural reforms, the UK risks drifting into a period of prolonged fiscal vulnerability.

For now, investor sentiment remains fragile. Any signals around new taxes, spending priorities, or regulatory changes will be closely parsed not just for their economic implications, but also for their political sustainability. The challenge facing Reeves is to navigate a narrowing fiscal path without triggering either a market backlash or political revolt a task that could define her tenure.

Source: CNBC

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Economic

Commodity

Gold Rebounds Amid Confusion Over U.S. Trade Strategy

After a mild decline in the previous session, gold prices climbed on Tuesday as the market absorbed conflicting signals from U.S. trade officials and President Donald Trump. The yellow metal gained 0.5% to reach $3,360.86 per ounce in Singapore, reversing Monday’s pullback, as investors remained on edge amid persistent geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

President Trump’s remarks that the U.S. remains open to further talks with key trade partners including the European Union offered a momentary reprieve from mounting tensions. However, these comments were seemingly contradicted by his assertion that formal letters sent to foreign governments outlining tariff terms already constitute final deals. This inconsistency cast fresh doubt on the credibility and flexibility of ongoing negotiations.

Gold's Status as a Safe Haven Remains Intact

Gold’s performance in 2025 has largely reflected its traditional role as a hedge against uncertainty and policy volatility. The metal surged over 25% earlier this year, reaching a record high above $3,500 per ounce in April, driven by the chaotic global trading environment, Fed rate policy uncertainty, and erratic tariff implementations.

While the rally has stalled over the past three months, analysts argue that the underlying bullish momentum remains intact particularly if talks break down in the lead-up to the August 1 tariff deadline. According to Fawad Razaqzada of City Index, gold could “easily retest or breach its former highs” should negotiations deteriorate again. However, he also acknowledged that the market is in a “wait-and-see mode,” with traders wary of further long positions at historically high price levels.

Broader Precious Metals Complex Sees Mixed Action

In parallel markets, silver was little changed after touching a 14-year high on Monday before retracing gains. Platinum and palladium both posted modest increases, reflecting ongoing strength in industrial demand, though the broader direction for precious metals remains heavily tied to U.S. trade rhetoric and the dollar’s movement.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index held steady, consolidating after Monday’s 0.3% gain. A stronger dollar typically pressures gold by making it more expensive for foreign buyers, yet in this case, gold’s resilience suggests safe-haven demand is overriding short-term currency headwinds.

A Cautiously Bullish Market

As the clock ticks toward the next round of tariff enforcement and G20 policy meetings, the gold market remains buoyed by geopolitical friction and economic uncertainty. Despite the recent plateau in gains, the metal’s fundamental drivers risk aversion, distrust in political consistency, and hedge-seeking behavior remain in place.

Unless clearer signals emerge from Washington or a breakthrough is made in trade discussions, gold’s upward bias is likely to persist in the near term, with $3,500 again becoming a potential target if tensions escalate.