Gold Outlook: Rate-Cut Expectations Hit, Eyes on Nonfarm Payrolls

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

Over the past week, gold prices followed a classic rally-then-retreat pattern. Bulls and bears were both active: on one hand...

Over the past week, gold prices followed a classic rally-then-retreat pattern. Bulls and bears were both active: on one hand, rising uncertainty over the U.S. economic outlook and doubts about the Fed's independence supported safe-haven demand; on the other hand, with the government reopening, some profit-taking by bulls, and continued hawkish signals from Fed officials along with lowered market expectations for easing, bullish momentum was restrained.

This week, market attention is focused on the September nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for early Friday (AEDT). While the data may be somewhat lagged due to the government shutdown, it could still act as a key catalyst for short-term volatility.

Technical Observation: High Volatility, Searching for Direction

Looking at the XAUUSD daily chart, gold experienced a sharp rally followed by a rapid pullback. Early last week, the price held above $4,000 and broke through $4,100 and $4,200, peaking intraday at $4,245. However, sentiment shifted abruptly on Thursday, sending gold back below $4,100, with a weekly close at $4,085.

This morning, gold is trading around $4,080. On the downside, $4,050 and $4,000 could provide support; on the upside, a move back above $4,100 would put last week's high of $4,245 in focus as a key resistance for challenging historical highs.

Notably, gold's correlation with the USD, Treasury yields, and equities is currently low, meaning prices are largely driven by flows rather than traditional macro factors, which amplifies volatility. Recent fundamental developments are worth monitoring as they could guide future price direction.

December Rate-Cut Odds Drop, Selling Pressure Intensifies

Last week's pivotal move in gold stemmed from a sharp decline in market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December. Several Fed officials, including Schmied and Logan, highlighted persistent inflation pressures and issued hawkish signals, directly curbing expectations for further easing this year.

A month ago, the market was nearly certain of a December cut, with odds around 90%; today, that probability has fallen below 50%. The Treasury yield curve has steepened on the downside, indicating traders are repricing both inflation risk and the pace of Fed easing. As a non-yielding asset, gold naturally faces pressure.

Risk-off sentiment, which pushed equities sharply lower, also intensified selling pressure on gold due to margin call pressures.

Government Reopens, Fed Independence in Question: Supporting Safe-Haven Demand

The Fed's hawkish shift is closely linked to the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, lasting 43 days. While the government reopening and the Treasury's TGA account liquidity boost are supportive, the data gaps created during the shutdown leave policymakers and traders "flying blind."

Key economic data collection was disrupted: October's employment, inflation, and GDP initial estimates have clear gaps; November employment data is incomplete, and inflation statistics remain limited. This uncertainty reinforces gold's appeal as a safe haven.

Additionally, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, a hawk, announced he will not seek reappointment. His position could be filled by a more dovish official, increasing concerns over Fed independence. Hassett publicly stated willingness to lead the Fed and pursue aggressive rate cuts, further heightening policy uncertainty and boosting gold's safe-haven demand.

Eyes on Nonfarm Payrolls and FOMC Minutes

Overall, gold saw a rally-and-pullback pattern last week, with heightened volatility. The retreat in December rate-cut expectations was the main driver of lower prices, while short-term profit-taking and weak long-position liquidation added pressure. Still, safe-haven demand continues to support prices, and high U.S. debt levels along with ongoing central bank purchases limit medium- to long-term downside.

Short-term, gold is expected to trade in a $4,000–$4,250 range. Market focus will be on upcoming delayed data releases, which could affect rate-cut expectations.

Due to the shutdown, several delayed data points will be released this week:

- U.S. Census Bureau: August construction spending (Mon), factory orders (Tue), trade balance (Wed)- Bureau of Economic Analysis: August international trade data (Wed)- Bureau of Labor Statistics: September nonfarm payrolls (Fri)

Of these, the September nonfarm payrolls report is the most closely watched. Market expectations are for 50k new jobs, up from 22k previously, with unemployment steady at 4.3%. If the data shows a resilient labor market, it could exert modest pressure on gold. For the December 10 FOMC meeting, the November nonfarm report released on December 5 will be more relevant.

Additionally, the October FOMC minutes, due Wednesday, will be important. If the minutes show most officials remain concerned about inflation and oppose easing, gold may face headwinds; if concerns about economic slowdown are highlighted, it could provide limited support.

Source: Pepperstone

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Blue River

Forex

Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair advanced to 154.72 on Monday, trading near its highest levels since February, despite the release of Japanese economic data that surpassed forecasts.

Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, a reversal from the 0.6% growth recorded in Q2. However, this outcome was better than the 0.6% decline anticipated by economists.

The yen's weakness persists primarily due to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's public call for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to maintain its ultra-low interest rate policy. The government believes this accommodative stance is essential to underpin economic growth and support a gradual rise in inflation.

This puts the government at odds with the central bank. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda struck a more balanced tone, noting that consumption remains stable amid rising household incomes and a tight labour market. He observed that core inflation is steadily approaching the 2% target, a development that would justify an early policy tightening.

This creates a visible and rare public imbalance between the dovish government's fiscal priorities and the central bank's potential inclination towards monetary normalisation.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY completed a growth wave to 155.00 and a subsequent correction to 153.63. The pair is now forming a tight consolidation range around this support level. An upward breakout from this range is expected to initiate the next leg of the rally, targeting 155.15 as an initial objective. This bullish scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is positioned above zero and pointing firmly upwards, indicating sustained positive momentum.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair reached a local high at 155.00 and completed a corrective structure to 153.63. A fresh growth impulse to 154.66 has since been completed, forming a new compact consolidation range. An upward breakout from this range is anticipated, opening the path for a move towards a minimum target of 155.75. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook. Its signal line is above 50 and rising sharply towards 80, reflecting strong short-term bullish momentum.

Conclusion

USD/JPY continues to climb, driven by a fundamental divergence between a dovish Japanese government and the BoJ, which is cautiously laying the groundwork for a future rate hike. Technically, the structure remains firmly bullish. The completion of the recent correction suggests the pair is poised for further gains, with immediate targets at 155.15 and 155.75.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

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Balogun Opeyemi

Commodity

Gold (XAU/USD) slipped back below the $4,100 handle on Monday after a brief Asian-session rebound, as renewed strength in the US Dollar (USD) and a cautious shift in Federal Reserve expectations pressured the metal. The yellow metal remains on the defensive heading into the European session, trading around $4,052, after failing to attract follow-through buying at the weekly open.

The repricing occurred after multiple influential FOMC officials refrained from endorsing near-term rate cuts, pushing the market to scale back expectations of additional Fed easing. The recalibration supported a mild recovery in US Treasury yields, helping the USD regain traction after last week’s decline. This renewed dollar strength created a headwind for gold, which remains sensitive to interest-rate expectations and yield movements due to its non-yielding nature.

Still, the broader macro backdrop remains supportive. The US economy continues to show signs of losing momentum following the longest government shutdown in history, with analysts widely expecting delayed economic releases to reveal softness in labor-market conditions and service-sector activity. Any confirmation of weakening fundamentals could reinforce expectations for policy easing later in the year, potentially weighing on the USD and improving gold’s medium-term outlook.

Investor sentiment also remains fragile. Even with a partial lift in risk appetite, the market is navigating uncertainty surrounding the true extent of the economic impact caused by the data blackout. This keeps safe-haven demand for gold relatively firm above last week’s low of $4,032.

Meanwhile, hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials continue to temper bullish momentum. Kansas City Fed President Jeffery Schmid noted that policy should continue to “lean against demand growth,” adding that current settings are “modestly restrictive.” Such remarks reduce the likelihood of a December rate cut, reinforcing resistance on gold’s upside.

Technical Analysis

With sellers controlling the market in the early hours of Monday, gold is still under pressure. XAU/USD is trading slightly below the 72-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the four-hour chart, supporting a short-term bearish bias.

Before the psychological $4,000 mark, where buyers might try to stabilize prices, there is immediate support at $4032. The next downside objectives at $3,950 and $3,900, where more demand can reappear, would be revealed by a clean breach below this zone.

On the Upside, the $4,100–$4,150 level acts as early barrier on the rise. A comeback toward $4,200, a former breakthrough zone where fresh selling pressure is probably going to emerge, might be encouraged by sustained strength above this level. The near-term perspective would only turn in favor of the bulls if there was a clear breach over $4,200.

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Blue River

Forex

Economic

The U.S. dollar edged higher Monday, trading in a steady fashion ahead of the release of key U.S. economic data following the ending of the government's shutdown, with the Federal Reserve holding its final policy meeting of the year next month.

At 04:00 ET (09:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 99.282, bouncing after a weekly fall.

Dollar awaits key data releases

The focus this week will be on various U.S. data releases for clues on the health of the world's largest economy, with the closely-watched September's nonfarm payrolls report due on Thursday.

This follows the end of the U.S. government shutdown, which had delayed the release of numerous data releases, depriving the markets as well as Fed officials of clarity about the health of the world's largest economy.

"In a week when we should finally start to see US data releases coming through, it is important to note that the outcome of the next Fed rate decision in December looks better priced at a 50% chance of a cut," said analysts at ING, in a note.

"That means that the dollar probably does not have to rally too much on the FOMC minutes released this Wednesday and can take its cue from Thursday's jobs report."

There are also a lot of Fed speakers due this week.

"A repeat of the Fed's recent message that it should not rush into further rate cuts and some uncertainty as to where the neutral policy rate actually sits is probably a mild dollar positive," ING added.

Euro retreats from highs

In Europe, EUR/USD traded 0.2% lower to 1.1601, slipping back from the two-week high seen last week.

The next important set of releases for the euro will be Friday's flash PMIs for November.

"Remember, these have been holding up quite well and are suggesting that businesses could be learning to live with the uncertain international environment here," ING added.

"The stronger dollar has dragged EUR/USD back to 1.1600. We would expect some demand to come in should it correct lower to the 1.1560/80 area."

GBP/USD traded 0.1% lower to 1.3162, with sterling stabilizing to a degree following the sharp swings seen at the end of last week on news that Finance Minister Rachel Reeves has no plans to raise income tax rates in the upcoming budget.

Reeves is expected to need to raise tens of billions of pounds to stay on track to meet her fiscal targets in the November 26 annual budget.

Yen retreats after Japanese GDP data

In Asia, USD/JPY edged 0.1% higher to 154.68, after earlier data showed that Japan's economy contracted in the third quarter at an annualised decline of 1.8% -- weaker than earlier quarters but slightly better than the median forecast of a 2.5 % drop.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP fell 0.4%, which was slightly smaller than economists had forecast but still pointed to a loss of momentum.

The contraction was driven by weaker exports that reflected the impact of recently imposed U.S. tariffs. Private consumption contributed little to growth and rose only modestly due to persistent inflation pressures faced by households.

The only strong component within the data was capital expenditure, which increased and suggesting that companies remain willing to invest despite the trade headwinds.

USD/CNY traded 0.1% higher to 7.1045, while AUD/USD gained 0.1% to 0.6534.

Source: Investing

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IC Markets

Forex

Commodity

Economic

What happened in the Asia session?

The Asia session on November 17 saw mixed activity in regional equity indexes, commodity prices, and currency pairs driven by Japan's weaker GDP, sectoral pressures, and cautious investor sentiment ahead of major U.S., European, and regional data releases. Tourism and retail stocks in Japan were especially impacted, while the Kospi showed relative strength, and oil prices weakened. The yen held steady after the GDP release, and Indian markets opened firm amid strong domestic flows.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Today's trading sessions are characterized by significant uncertainty stemming from delayed U.S. economic data, shifting Fed rate cut expectations (now at 50% for December), and anticipation of critical corporate earnings. Canadian inflation data (1:30 PM GMT) represents the day's key macroeconomic release, while Japan's confirmed GDP contraction highlights global growth concerns. Bitcoin's 25% pullback from October highs reflects broader risk-off sentiment, while oil prices remain under pressure despite geopolitical tensions.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

The US dollar is navigating a complex environment marked by diminished Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations, lingering economic uncertainty from the historic government shutdown, and a critical week of data releases ahead. With the DXY testing key support around 99.00 and December Fed rate cut odds falling below 50%, the dollar's near-term trajectory hinges on forthcoming economic indicators that will finally shed light on the US economy's true condition.Central Bank Notes:

· The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.

· The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.

· Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September's consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly below expectations at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflationary pressure but still warranting vigilance amid tariff-driven price effects.

· Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.

· The updated Summary of Economic Projections reflects an anticipated unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections holding near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.

· The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.

· The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability, with Treasury redemption caps held steady at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities caps at $35 billion.

· The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours BiasWeak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Gold stabilized near $4,100 on November 17 after two days of losses driven by collapsing expectations for a December Fed rate cut, now viewed as essentially a coin toss at 44-50% probability. The metal remains up 55-57% year-to-date despite retreating from October's record high above $4,380.

The recently concluded 43-day U.S. government shutdown created significant volatility, initially boosting gold above $4,240 on safe-haven demand before triggering profit-taking on resolution. Delayed economic data and hawkish Fed commentary have introduced genuine uncertainty for the December 10 FOMC meeting.Next 24 Hours Bias Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

No major news eventWhat can we expect from EUR today?The euro opened Monday's trading session on a firm footing at 1.1621, supported by a combination of US dollar weakness, stable ECB policy, and resilient eurozone services sector performance. While the ECB maintains its "good place" with rates on hold and only a 40% chance of cuts by September 2026, the Federal Reserve faces growing pressure to ease further, with December rate cut odds now a coin toss at approximately 50%.Central Bank Notes:

· The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 30 October 2025 meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers' assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.

· Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility amid uncertain global financial conditions.

· Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.

· Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.

· The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, aided by stable banking sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.

· Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.

· The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.

· Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.

· The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025

Next 24 Hours BiasWeak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

The Swiss Franc enters the week at multi-year highs, supported by three key pillars: the confirmed US tariff reduction from 39% to 15%, ongoing safe-haven demand driven by global uncertainty, and SNB policy stability at 0% with negative rates ruled out. The USD/CHF pair is trading near 0.79, its strongest level since 2011, while EUR/CHF has reached levels not seen since 2015. With Switzerland's Q3 GDP flash estimate due today and the December 11 SNB meeting on the horizon, the franc's trajectory will depend on economic data releases and any shifts in the SNB's confident inflation outlook.Central Bank Notes:

· The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.

· Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.

· The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.

· The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.

· Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

· Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged

· The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.

· The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours BiasMedium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)Key news events today

The British Pound faces significant headwinds as Monday's Asian session begins. The government's fiscal U-turn has raised questions about the UK's fiscal credibility, while persistently weak economic data has cemented expectations for a December rate cut. With markets pricing in a 75-80% probability of a 25 basis point cut on 18 December, and technical indicators pointing to further downside risk, Sterling is likely to remain under pressure unless upcoming data surprises to the upside or Catherine Mann's comments signal resistance to near-term easing. Traders should watch the 1.3150-1.3185 support zone closely, as a break below could accelerate losses toward 1.2875 or lower.Central Bank Notes:

· The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 6 November 2025 and voted by a majority of 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00 percent for a second consecutive meeting. The decision reflects the Committee's cautious approach as inflation remains above target, but underlying economic momentum continues to weaken. Two members maintained their votes for a 25-basis-point cut, citing further signs of labor-market softening and weak business sentiment.

· The BOE adjusted its guidance on quantitative tightening (QT), maintaining the reduced pace established in September. The planned reduction of UK government bond holdings remains at £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, leaving the current gilt balance near £550 billion. Policymakers described the recalibrated QT path as "appropriate for current market conditions," emphasizing the importance of liquidity management amid heightened volatility.

· Headline inflation moderated slightly to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent previously, driven by easing food and transport prices. However, core inflation has shown only gradual progress, holding near 3.9 percent. The MPC noted that services inflation and administered energy costs continue to exert pressure, highlighting the challenge of achieving the 2 percent target sustainably. The Committee's latest projections see inflation falling toward 3 percent by mid-2026, with further downside expected if energy and wage dynamics continue to normalize.

· Economic activity remains subdued. Estimates place Q3 GDP growth close to zero, with both business output and consumer spending restrained. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.8 percent, while pay growth cooled to just under 5 percent year-on-year. MPC members acknowledged that pay settlements are weakening further, signaling an easing in labor cost pressures as demand softens. Surveys from the manufacturing and services sectors suggest muted hiring intentions through year-end.

· International factors continue to complicate the policy outlook. Fluctuating oil prices—partly linked to renewed Middle East tensions—alongside fragile global demand have contributed to higher market volatility. The MPC reiterated that external shocks, including global food and energy disruptions, could temporarily slow the disinflation path but remain unlikely to derail the medium-term moderation in prices.

· The Committee assessed risks around inflation as balanced. Downside risks arise from sluggish domestic growth and declining real income momentum, while upside risks remain tied to elevated inflation expectations and stubborn services inflation. Policymakers emphasized the need for patience, maintaining that any rate cuts ahead of clear inflation progress could undermine confidence in policy credibility.

· The MPC's overall stance remains restrictive but increasingly balanced, with future moves expected to follow a cautious, data-driven trajectory. The Committee reaffirmed that monetary policy will stay tight until there is compelling evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 percent target on a durable basis.

· The next meeting is on 18 December 2025.Next 24 Hours BiasMedium Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Today marks a pivotal moment for Canadian Dollar traders with the October CPI release. Inflation data coming in line with expectations would likely reinforce the market consensus that the Bank of Canada has paused rate cuts, providing technical support for the loonie around current levels near 1.40. However, the broader outlook remains subdued with rate differentials and trade uncertainty weighing on medium-term CAD performance. The market will closely watch both the headline and core inflation figures alongside any forward guidance cues for the December 10 BoC decision.Central Bank Notes:

· The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.

· The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.

· Canada's economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.

· Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.

· Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to cap overall resale volumes, leading to only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.

· Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank's target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.

· The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.

· The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours BiasWeaK Bullish

Oil

Oil prices declined on Monday, November 17, as Russian export operations resumed at Novorossiysk following Ukrainian strikes. The market faces significant bearish pressure from a growing supply glut, with the IEA warning of surpluses reaching 4 million bpd in 2026. Despite geopolitical risks from intensifying Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil taking effect on November 21, and Iran's tanker seizure in the Strait of Hormuz, these supply risks have proven insufficient to offset fundamental oversupply concerns.

Next 24 Hours BiasWeak Bearish

Source: IC Markets

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Fed’s Rate Cut Outlook Grows Cloudier

Gold's recent downward trend has been driven by growing skepticism that the US Federal Reserve will move forward with a rate cut at its December meeting. A significant backlog of economic data caused by the longest government shutdown in US history has left policymakers in a state of hesitation. While a rate cut was widely expected just a few weeks ago, market sentiment is now split, with traders reassessing the likelihood of monetary easing.

Strategist Hebe Chen from Vantage Markets emphasized that although the shutdown has ended, the lack of timely labor and inflation data has created an analytical “fog” for both investors and central bankers. This delay in economic clarity weakens the case for a near-term cut, making bullion less attractive amid rising yields and a firmer US dollar.

Volatility and Weak Demand Compound Losses

The pressure on gold is not solely a result of US macroeconomic factors. In Asia, subdued physical demand especially in India has exacerbated the metal’s decline. According to Manav Modi from Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Indian gold dealers are now offering steep discounts due to high price volatility, which has discouraged retail buyers.

Despite the recent pullback, gold is still up approximately 55% year-to-date, maintaining its trajectory for the strongest annual gain since 1979. The rally has been supported by robust central bank purchases and heightened investor interest in precious metals as safe havens amid fiscal concerns in major economies.

Longer-Term Bullish Sentiment Remains Intact

Even as short-term headwinds prevail, analysts argue that gold’s medium- to long-term bullish narrative remains intact. A softer outlook for the US dollar and increasing fiscal imbalances globally could sustain the metal's appeal. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties and the residual impact of inflation may reinforce gold’s role as a portfolio hedge.

In other precious metals, silver and palladium saw modest gains, while platinum also edged higher. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index ticked up 0.1%, further weighing on gold’s immediate recovery.

If momentum continues to follow this cautious tone, gold may remain under pressure in the short term. Traders should monitor upcoming US data releases closely. A surprise softening in employment or inflation metrics could revive rate-cut hopes and offer near-term support for bullion. Conversely, strong data may cement the Fed’s hawkish stance, pushing gold closer to key support levels.

Source: Bloomberg

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Gerik

Economic

Stocks

A cautious start to the week amid weak global cues

European stocks appear set for a subdued opening on Monday, with modest losses across major indices as investors remain wary of both macroeconomic headwinds and sector-specific valuation risks. The UK’s FTSE 100 is expected to open 0.13% lower, while the DAX (Germany) and CAC 40 (France) also show slight downward momentum. Italy’s FTSE MIB is forecasted to fall by 0.2%, according to IG’s early trading projections.

The hesitancy reflects a continuation of last week’s market retreat, where European bourses closed sharply lower on Friday, driven by concerns over an overheating artificial intelligence sector and broader global economic uncertainties.

U.S. rate cut expectations recalibrated after Fed commentary

Much of the current sentiment shift stems from the reassessment of potential Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. While markets previously priced in a 95% chance of a December rate cut, the probability has now dropped to 56.1%, based on the CME FedWatch Tool. This shift has had ripple effects across global equities, particularly in technology sectors, which have seen significant rotation in recent days.

Adding to the uncertainty is a geopolitical flare-up between China and Japan, with Beijing issuing travel and study advisories for its citizens visiting Japan. This development weighed on Asia-Pacific markets, which closed mixed overnight and added to the cautious tone heading into the European session.

Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures were little changed after a volatile previous week that saw a broad reallocation away from highly valued AI stocks, as well as increased scrutiny on corporate earnings and macro trends.

Lack of catalysts keeps Europe on hold

The European market’s downbeat opening is also influenced by the absence of major corporate earnings or key economic data releases on Monday. With no major macro reports scheduled, traders are left responding to external drivers, such as U.S. policy developments and geopolitical risks.

With sentiment fragile and few new data points to digest, the start of the trading week is expected to feature cautious positioning. Investors will likely watch closely for any fresh comments from central bank officials, particularly from the Fed and the European Central Bank, as well as developments in global diplomacy and tech sector volatility.

Unless there is a significant surprise midweek such as a policy pivot or unexpected earnings release markets may remain in wait-and-see mode, with defensive strategies and volatility hedges becoming more attractive in the short term.