The DAX Index Is Losing Its Bullish Momentum

Stocks

Technical Analysis

Summary:

At the end of May, we noted that the German stock index DAX 40 (Germany 40 mini on FXOpen) was exhibiting significantly stronger performance compared to other global equity indices. However, we also highlighted the 24,100 level as a strong resistance zone.

Two months have passed, and the chart now suggests that bearish signals are intensifying.

From a technical analysis perspective, the DAX 40 (Germany 40 mini on FXOpen) formed an ascending channel in July (outlined in blue). However, each time the bulls attempted to push the price above the 24,460 level (which corresponds to the May high), they encountered resistance.

It is worth noting the nature of the bearish reversals (indicated by arrows) – the price declined sharply, often without intermediate recoveries, signalling strong selling pressure. It is likely that major market participants used the proximity to the all-time high to reduce their long positions.

From a fundamental standpoint, several factors are weighing on the DAX 40 (Germany 40 mini on FXOpen):→ Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US–EU trade agreement, which has yet to be finalised (with the deadline approaching next week);→ Corporate news, including disappointing earnings reports from Puma, Volkswagen, and several other German companies.

Given the above, it is reasonable to assume that bearish activity could result in an attempt to break below the lower boundary of the ascending blue channel.

Source: FXOpen

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Glendon

Economic

Forex

The armed military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia presents limited risks to most business sectors for now while tourism industry experts are taking a wait-and-see stance to assess the impact.

Thailand is warning of an all-out war with its neighbouring country as the US has called for a ceasefire. The clashes, though, are limited to border areas far removed from popular tourist destinations, such as Bangkok and Phuket.

“We’ve been monitoring the situation and have yet to see significant changes in travel searches to these destinations,” booking site Expedia said in an emailed statement.

The border clashes aren’t expected to affect Thailand’s tourism sector under the current circumstances, Chai Arunanondchai, president of the Tourism Council of Thailand, said at a Thursday briefing.

Nonetheless, the conflict is already adversely affecting overall economic confidence and disrupting trade and investment between the two countries, the Thai Chamber of Commerce said in a Thursday statement.

Exports from Thailand to Cambodia, including jewellery, oil and sugar, totalled US$5.1 billion (RM21.52 billion) in the first half of 2025, according to the Thai Commerce Ministry. Thailand imported US$732 million of Cambodian goods, mostly fruits and vegetables.

The flareup, which included Thai airstrikes on Cambodian military bases, wasn’t initially expected to have a significant effect on food, media, cement and retail sectors in Thailand, UOB Kay Hian analysts said in a June 17 note to investors.

Thai convenience store CP All and conglomerate Berli Jucker have limited exposure in Cambodia, they said in a research note.

Thailand’s Carabao Group beverage maker, though, has relatively high sales in Cambodia, Citi Research said in a Friday note to investors. The clash could increase freight costs because of shifting trade routes due to the conflict, it said.

“A prolonged dispute could weaken consumption sentiment in provinces close to border region,” according to Citi.

Carabao is estimated to derive 28% of its energy drink revenue this year from Cambodia, CGS International said.

Thailand’s Bumrungrad Hospital, as well as herbal supplement maker Mega Lifesciences, is estimated to receive about 6% of their fiscal-year revenue from Cambodia and could face limited risks, CGS added.

Cambodia’s economic growth was already expected to slow, according to a July 17 report by Maybank Securities Pte.

The country has more than half a million workers in Thailand, according to official estimates, though Maybank said undocumented migrants could push that number closer to 1.2 million people. Officials in Thailand’s Chanthaburi and Trat provinces said some 2,000 Cambodian migrant workers have gathered at a checkpoint to return home.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Samantha Luan

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Economic

Starlink systems used by Ukrainian military units were down for two and a half hours overnight, a senior commander said, part of a global issue that disrupted the satellite internet provider.

Ukraine's forces are heavily reliant on thousands of SpaceX's Starlink terminals for battlefield communications and some drone operations, as they have proved resistant to espionage and signal jamming throughout the three and a half years of fighting Russia's invasion.

Starlink experienced one of its biggest international outages on Thursday when an internal software failure knocked tens of thousands of users offline."Starlink is down across the entire front," Robert Brovdi, the commander of Ukraine's drone forces, wrote on Telegram at 10:41 p.m. (1941 GMT) on Thursday.

He updated his post later to say that by about 1:05 a.m. on Friday the issue had been resolved. He said the incident had highlighted the risk of reliance on the systems, and called for communication and connectivity methods to be diversified."Combat missions were performed without a (video) feed, battlefield reconnaissance was done with strike (drones)," Brovdi wrote.

Oleksandr Dmitriev, the founder of OCHI, a Ukrainian system that centralises feeds from thousands of drone crews across the frontline, told Reuters the outage showed that relying on cloud services to command units and relay battlefield drone reconnaissance was a "huge risk"."If connection to the internet is lost ... the ability to conduct combat operations is practically gone," he said, calling for a move towards local communication systems that are not reliant on the internet.

Although Starlink does not operate in Russia, Ukrainian officials have said that Moscow's troops are also widely using the systems on the frontlines in Ukraine.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

A Record Deficit as Fiscal Stimulus Takes the Lead

China’s widening fiscal gap reflects a deliberate and forceful shift toward stimulus-driven growth as exports to the U.S. falter under the weight of elevated tariffs, currently averaging about 30 percentage points higher than last year. The 5.25 trillion yuan budget gap marks a 45% increase from the same period in 2024, according to Bloomberg estimates derived from Finance Ministry data. This is the largest midyear deficit on record and highlights the scale of intervention required to stabilize the economy.

The surge in the deficit stems from two key dynamics: a rapid increase in government expenditure and a parallel decline in fiscal income. Expenditure rose 9% year-on-year to 18.8 trillion yuan, fueled by both daily operational spending and long-term infrastructure investment through China’s dual budget framework. However, total income from taxation and land sales dropped, with tax revenue down 1.2% and land-related income traditionally a major fiscal support falling by 6.5%, reflecting deep-rooted weakness in the property sector.

Policy Tools Shift as External Demand Weakens

Despite a recent truce in tariff escalations, Chinese exports to the U.S. have continued to contract sharply, exposing the country’s vulnerability to external shocks. As a counterbalance, China has ramped up infrastructure spending and local government-led stimulus to sustain economic momentum. The Finance Ministry emphasized that this front-loaded fiscal action played a critical role in helping China post a stronger-than-expected 5.3% GDP growth rate in the first half, already exceeding the annual target of "around 5%."

Notably, resilient exports to alternative markets beyond the U.S. have provided some cushion, but not enough to offset the broader trade friction. Consequently, Chinese authorities are doubling down on domestic drivers of growth, with additional rounds of stimulus likely under discussion when top policymakers meet at the end of July.

Fiscal Strain Mounts Ahead of Key Trade Talks

The ballooning deficit presents a delicate balancing act for Chinese authorities. On one hand, further stimulus may be essential to maintain growth amid deflationary risks and a chronically weak property market. On the other, fiscal sustainability concerns loom larger as tax collections stagnate and land sales fail to recover.

Next week’s planned trade negotiations between China and the U.S. will be pivotal in determining whether China opts for an even more aggressive fiscal response. While a comprehensive trade resolution appears unlikely in the near term, any relaxation of tariffs would offer temporary relief and reduce the need for further stimulus.

In the current context, Beijing’s strategy is clear: absorb the short-term fiscal pain to avoid a sharper economic deceleration. Whether this gamble pays off will depend not only on domestic reforms but also on the external trade environment especially the evolving stance of the U.S. ahead of its own presidential election cycle.

China’s record-high budget deficit is both a reflection of economic vulnerability and a demonstration of Beijing’s determination to preserve growth through stimulus. With exports weakening, property markets stuck in correction, and trade tensions unresolved, fiscal policy is now the central engine of China's economic resilience but not without growing long-term costs.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

Mixed Signals from ECB vs. Corporate Reality

While the ECB maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2% on Thursday and issued a cautiously optimistic message about euro area stability, its own survey of 72 large firms paints a more sobering picture. Conducted between June 23 and July 2, the report highlights early signs of an economic deceleration particularly in manufacturing and services due to trade friction and geopolitical instability.

The central message from companies was one of caution. Although the ECB framed recent economic data as indicative of a “good place,” businesses cited real-world conditions such as weaker demand, trade policy uncertainty, and shifting supply chains that are dampening both production and investment.

U.S. Tariffs and Chinese Trade Diversion Fuel Concerns

The growing threat of broad-based U.S. tariffs, part of President Trump’s ongoing push to rebalance global trade flows, is already weighing on European business sentiment. Respondents said that these tariffs are forcing Asian, especially Chinese, exporters to redirect goods previously destined for the U.S. to the European market, intensifying competitive pressures in the region.

So far, this diversion is concentrated in intermediate goods rather than final consumer products, but firms expect the impact to broaden over time, eventually spilling into retail sectors and affecting price dynamics. This supports broader fears about a “China shock 2.0” flooding European markets with low-cost exports amid deflationary conditions in China.

Sector Divergence: Manufacturing vs. Retail

The impact of these economic headwinds is not uniform across sectors. While manufacturing and business services are seeing a visible contraction in demand and pricing power, retail and consumer services report relatively minimal disruptions for now. These sectors have yet to feel the full impact of the trade redirection from Asia, although they remain exposed should conditions worsen in coming quarters.

This divergence underscores a two-speed economy within the euro zone, where consumer-facing segments are holding steady for now, but industrial sectors already burdened by weak global demand are entering a more vulnerable phase.

Slowing Wage Growth Signals Labour Market Cooling

In addition to business activity and pricing concerns, the survey also showed softening wage expectations. After peaking at 4.5% in 2024, companies now forecast average wage increases to slow to 3.3% in 2025 and further to 2.8% in 2026. Although still elevated, this deceleration suggests that labor market tightness is easing and that inflationary wage pressures may be dissipating aligning with the ECB’s broader disinflation narrative.

Despite the ECB’s attempt to project confidence in the euro area’s trajectory, its own corporate outreach reveals deeper concerns beneath the surface. The potential convergence of tighter U.S. trade policy and China’s surplus-driven export strategy is creating an environment of uncertainty and downward pressure on output and prices.

Markets may be underestimating the fragility of this economic moment. With policy levers constrained and geopolitical volatility high, the euro zone economy could struggle to maintain momentum, especially if retaliatory trade measures or global demand shocks accelerate. The ECB’s balancing act between monetary patience and responsiveness to worsening data will define its credibility in the second half of 2025.

Source: Reuters

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SAXO

Economic

Forex

Stocks

Key points:

● Market highs often create hesitation for investors on the sidelines, but history shows that long-term investing at these levels can still deliver strong returns.

● With tools like limit orders, thematic diversification, and dollar cost averaging, there are still smart ways to put money to work—even at elevated levels.

● Instead of trying to time the top, focus on building a resilient, well-diversified portfolio that can navigate different economic scenarios.

● Long-term success comes from consistency and discipline, not perfect timing.

The myth of waiting for the perfect entryIn theory, “buy low, sell high” sounds perfect. In practice, most investors struggle to do either.In fact, if you only invested on days when the S&P 500 hit an all-time high, your long-term returns would often be higher than if you invested on any random day.

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Private Bank, March 2024

That’s because record highs typically happen during bull markets, and bull markets tend to last longer than expected.The real challenge isn’t timing the market. It’s having a strategy that works when prices feel high, and sticking to it.

What to do instead: smart moves at market highs

1. Make pullbacks work for you

Even when the overall market is rising, individual stocks and sectors often face short-term dips. Those can be opportunities.

What you can do:

● If you’ve got cash on the sidelines, set price alerts for stocks or ETFs you want to own at better value.

● Use limit orders to automate discipline. These let you set a specific price you're willing to pay, and the order only executes if the market reaches that level. This helps avoid buying in a rush or at inflated prices.

● Keep a watchlist of high-conviction investments and gradually add to them during short-term weakness.

● Consider selling a put option(if you're familiar with options), which can let you earn income while waiting to buy at a lower price.

2. Look for what hasn’t rallied yet

While technology and AI stocks have led the charge, many parts of the market have lagged, and may offer better value and catch-up potential if the rally broadens out.

What to consider:

● Small-cap stocks and value-oriented sectors (like banks, energy, or healthcare) have underperformed and may benefit from stronger economic growth or a shift in investor focus.

● Dividend stocks can provide a steady income stream and may become more appealing if interest rates begin to fall.

● Rather than trying to pick individual stocks, consider broad-based ETFs that offer exposure to these less-loved areas of the market, helping you diversify while keeping costs low.

3. Diversify based on what drives markets

Market leadership today is shaped less by geography or sector, and more by macro forces like interest rates, trade policies, and geopolitical risk. Traditional diversification alone may not be enough. It’s time to think about how different parts of your portfolio respond to shifting policy and economic drivers.

How to position:

● Tariff-sensitive sectors like autos and semiconductors may benefit if global trade tensions ease, but could struggle in a more protectionist environment. On the other hand, utilities, healthcare, and defense tend to be more insulated from global supply chains and policy swings.

● Utilities and real estate often perform well when interest rates fall, as their steady income becomes more attractive relative to bonds and cash.

● Defense stocks, commodities, and gold can help cushion your portfolio during periods of geopolitical uncertainty or broad market volatility.

● Consider thematic funds that align with long-term structural trends such as clean energy, digital infrastructure, and healthcare innovation. These can offer growth potential across different macro cycles.

Even if some of these areas have gained attention recently, their relevance over the long term means they may still be underrepresented in many portfolios.

4. Stay consistent with a plan

Waiting for the “perfect moment” to invest often leads to missed opportunities. Even when markets dip, fear and uncertainty can prevent action, leaving cash on the sidelines and long-term goals unmet.

What works better:

● Adopt adollar-cost averaging (DCA) approach – invest a fixed amount at regular intervals (monthly or quarterly), regardless of market levels. This helps reduce the impact of short-term volatility and takes the emotion out of decision-making.

● Set calendar reminders to review and top up your investments, just like you would with other recurring commitments like bill payments or insurance.

● Stay focused on your long-term goals, not the day-to-day headlines. Markets will fluctuate, but a consistent, disciplined approach tends to win over time.

Final thought

Buying at market highs can feel uncomfortable, but history shows that long-term investors are often rewarded for staying the course.If you diversify smartly, lean into underappreciated areas, and stay consistent with your investing plan, you won’t need to worry about whether you’re “too late.”Because long-term wealth isn’t built by picking the perfect moment.It’s built by showing up, again and again.

Source: SAXO

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Gerik

Economic

Central Bank Caution Reflects Economic Stability

Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan have recalibrated their outlooks on ECB monetary policy, signaling a more cautious stance after Thursday’s decision to maintain the main refinancing rate at 2%. The ECB has already implemented eight rate cuts since June 2024, yet the central bank now appears inclined to pause its easing cycle amid improving macroeconomic conditions. Christine Lagarde, the ECB President, emphasized a “wait-and-watch” approach, describing the current state of the economy as being in a “good place.”

Goldman Sachs no longer anticipates any additional rate cuts in 2025. Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan has delayed its predicted rate move to October, instead of the earlier forecast of September. This change reflects confidence that the eurozone economy has shown greater resilience than expected, reducing the urgency for further monetary easing.

Trade Tensions and Diplomacy Shape Rate Outlook

Another key variable influencing the ECB's path is the ongoing negotiation of a trade agreement between the European Union and the United States. Earlier threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to impose 30% tariffs on EU goods by August 1 had heightened fears of trade-driven stagflation. However, diplomats now signal that a more moderate agreement centering on a 15% across-the-board tariff is emerging as the most probable outcome.

This potential resolution has been factored into Goldman and J.P. Morgan’s updated forecasts. Analysts see a deal as removing one of the largest downside risks to European growth. If finalized, it would also reduce the need for the ECB to respond preemptively to external shocks with additional rate cuts.

A Divided Wall Street and Uncertain Markets

In contrast, other major institutions like Bank of America, Barclays, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley are holding onto their expectations for a September rate cut. However, even among these firms, caution is growing. Morgan Stanley analysts noted that stronger economic data or further easing of trade tensions could delay the next rate cut until December or beyond.

Market sentiment reflects this divide. Eurozone money markets currently assign only a 30% probability to a rate cut by December. This hesitancy underscores how sensitive ECB projections now are to incoming economic data, especially inflation trends, labor market resilience, and manufacturing output.

Markets Eye Data and Diplomacy

The ECB's path forward has become increasingly data-dependent, shaped not only by inflation metrics and growth indicators but also by geopolitical developments like the pending EU-U.S. trade agreement. For now, monetary policy remains in a holding pattern, with financial institutions and traders cautiously rebalancing expectations.

Unless the eurozone’s economic outlook deteriorates or diplomatic tensions escalate further, the ECB is likely to extend its pause. The next decisive shift may come only if incoming data clearly signal weakening demand or if negotiations with the U.S. collapse, reigniting trade risks.