£10 bn Budget: Further GBPUSD Rally?

Forex

Economic

Summary:

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to unveil multi-billion-pound tax hikes. The package will test her credibility with gilt investors and welfare-expansion MPs. A fiscally disciplined stance could reinforce long-term confidence in UK assets and lend modest support to sterling.

SELL GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.32400

Entry Price

1.29000

1.34000

1.33264 -0.00048 -0.04%

11.6

Pips

Profit

1.29000

1.32284

Exit Price

1.32400

Entry Price

1.34000

Fundamentals

Sterling's latest leg higher has been driven chiefly by broad-based USD weakness. The USD pressure stems from weaker-than-expected U.S. data and recent dovish signals from Fed officials. Focus now turns to Chancellor Rachel Reeves' forthcoming Budget. Against a challenging fiscal backdrop, the Treasury is expected to unveil tax-raising measures worth tens of billions of pounds to plug the deficit and bolster the UK's fiscal buffer.

Despite pre-election pledges by Chancellor Reeves and PM Starmer to shield "working people" from higher taxes, the Treasury is now set to widen the tax base in response to deteriorating public-financed metrics. The flagship measure is a two-year extension—to FY-2029/30—of the freeze in both the personal allowance and the higher-rate threshold for income tax, a fiscal drag that is projected to yield about £8 bn per annum in additional receipts.

Option markets are on high alert. Overnight GBP-implied volatility exploded to nealy 12% on Tuesday from < 2% at the start of the week, signalling aggressive hedging against outsized GBP moves once the Budget is released.

October CPI dropped to 3.6% YoY, reinforcing dovish pricing in the short-sterling strip. A 25 bp Bank Rate cut in December is now fully discounted at an 80% probability, pushing 10-y Gilt yields lower ahead of the fiscal event.

U.S. data released also warrant attention. The jointly-issued September figures from the Commerce Department and the Department of Labor showed a modest growth profile: headline retail sales rose only 0.2% MoM, missing the 0.4% consensus and decelerating sharply from August's revised 0.6%. At the same time the producer price index increased 0.3% MoM, in line with expectations, but the annual rate stayed unchanged at 2.7% for a second straight month. Both releases were postponed because of the 43-day federal government shutdown.

In response to the data, market analysts flagged their lagging nature as diluting any immediate market punch.

"Inflation dynamics have shifted more dramatically than consumer spending; the price-level adjustment to the new-tariff reality is probably in its late stages," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management.

Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, emphasized that core PPI printed below consensus and remains sub-3% YoY, evidence that inflation is not re-accelerating—conditions he views as green-lighting a December Fed rate cut.

He added that the economy is exhibiting a pronounced K-shaped profile: high-income cohorts continue to prop up consumption, while middle- and lower-income segments are already showing fatigue.

Recent dovish remarks from within the Fed have further cemented market expectations of an imminent rate cut. New York Fed President John Williams stated that the policy rate could decline "in the near term," while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Governor Christopher Waller have both voiced support for a December reduction. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the implied probability of a 25 bp rate cut at the December FOMC meeting has surged to 84.9%, up from just 50.1% a week ago, underscoring the accelerating convergence toward a monetary-policy pivot.

Technical Analysis

Weekly Technical Outlook: GBPUSD is consolidating around the EMA50. The MACD fast/slow lines have pulled back to the zero-axis. A renewed bullish crossover (golden-cross) would expose the EMA12 at 1.324 and the Bollinger mid-band at 1.340. RSI sits at 45, signalling prevailing pessimism.

Daily Technical Outlook: Price has cleared both the EMA12 and the Bollinger mid-band. The immediate bias points toward the EMA200 near 1.3246. MACD remains in a golden-cross formation while still pulling back toward the zero-line, implying the rebound is incomplete. RSI at 51 reflects a wait-and-see mood. Overall, the short-term rally is intact.

Therefore, the short-term strategy is recommended to go long first, then short.

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.324

Target Price: 1.29

Stop Loss: 1.34

Support: 1.3/1.29/1.28

Resistance Levels: 1.324/1.33/1.34

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

A renewed rejection from this zone would confirm the double top formation, triggering a bearish correction with a primary target set at 1.3981, the next major support level.

SELL USDCAD

EXP

EXPIRED

1.41400

Entry Price

1.39850

1.41900

1.38199 +0.00052 +0.04%

Pips

EXPIRED

1.39850

1.38268

Exit Price

1.41400

Entry Price

1.41900

Canada’s persistent inflation backdrop continues to reinforce the Bank of Canada (BoC)’s guidance that it may have concluded its easing cycle. In October, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 2.2% year-over-year (YoY) from 2.4% in September, primarily reflecting lower gasoline prices.

However, excluding volatile food and energy components, the core CPI component rose to an eight-month high of 2.7% YoY, up from 2.4% in September. Furthermore, the BoC’s preferred core CPI measure (the average of trimmed and median CPI) printed at 2.95% YoY, remaining consistently above the central bank's 2% target. Market pricing currently implies a stable BoC policy rate of 2.25% over the next 12 months, with rate hikes even being anticipated over the following two years.

U.S. inflation indicators showed signs of stabilization in September. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.7% YoY, aligning with forecasts and the August reading, suggesting that wholesale price pressures have leveled off. The Core PPI offered relief, easing to 2.6% from 2.9%, falling below expectations.

Consumer activity, meanwhile, appeared to weaken. Retail Sales rose only 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in September, a noticeable slowdown from the 0.6% increase in August, pointing toward softer consumption trends. Compounding this, the Conference Board reported that household sentiment deteriorated significantly in November, with Consumer Confidence dropping 6.8 points to 88.7 from 95.5 in October.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller publicly supported a rate cut in December, though he noted that a move in January is less certain. Waller emphasized the weakening labor market, stating: "The labor market is weak; it continues to weaken." This dovish sentiment was echoed by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who maintained confidence that the Fed can guide inflation back to target, suggesting the risk of an inflationary flare-up is diminished. New York Fed President John Williams added that the Fed could still cut rates in the "near term," significantly boosting the implied probability of a rate reduction at the December 9-10 meeting.

Despite the prevailing dovish shift, recent U.S. economic data was mixed but showed resilience. September's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 119,000, comfortably beating the 50,000 forecast, although the August reading was sharply revised to a 4,000 loss. The Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4%, hitting its highest level in four years. Wage growth showed moderation, with Average Hourly Earnings rising 0.2% MoM in September. Despite the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) being openly divided, the collective commentary from key Fed officials has increased the probability of the central bank reducing borrowing costs. Double Top Formation Threatens Sharp Correction to Key Support_1

Double Top Formation Threatens Sharp Correction to Key Support_1

Technical Analysis

The USDCAD pair appears to be on track to form a Double Top pattern at the 1.4139 resistance level. This level is highly significant, as the price previously rejected sharply downward from this exact point. A renewed rejection from this zone would confirm the double top formation, triggering a bearish correction with a primary target set at 1.3981, the next major support level.

This target is technically sound as it aligns perfectly with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level—a zone where deep corrections are typically drawn. In the event of a bearish correction, this Fibonacci cluster would function as a strong price magnet. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 68.40, approaching overbought territory. While it still has room to climb, it is probable that the price may manage one final bullish impulse to test the local high before commencing the downward correction.

On the 4-hour chart, the 100-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) are located at 1.4058 and 1.4032, respectively. A bearish cross and subsequent close below both these key MAs would signal an acceleration in the downward momentum, confirming the technical pattern and opening the path to the 1.3981 support target.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.4140

Target price: 1.3985

Stop loss: 1.4190

Validity: Dec 05, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Economic

Central Bank

Summary:

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart has reached 71, clearly entering overbought territory, supporting the case for a temporary retracement toward the 100-period MA.

BUY GBPUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

1.31140

Entry Price

1.32900

1.30200

1.33264 -0.00048 -0.04%

Pips

EXPIRED

1.30200

1.33335

Exit Price

1.31140

Entry Price

1.32900

U.S. inflation indicators showed signs of stabilization in September. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year (YoY), aligning exactly with both forecasts and the August reading, suggesting that wholesale price pressures have leveled off. The Core PPI reading offered a slight relief, easing to 2.6% from 2.9%, falling below the 2.7% expectation.

Consumer activity, however, appeared to weaken. Retail Sales rose 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in September, a noticeable slowdown from the 0.6% increase seen in August, pointing toward softer consumption trends. Furthermore, the Conference Board reported that household sentiment deteriorated in November, with Consumer Confidence dropping 6.8 points to 88.7 from 95.5 in October.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller publicly supported a rate cut in December, though he stated that a move in January is less certain. In an interview, Waller emphasized the weakening labor market, noting, "The bulk of the private sector and the anecdotal data we’ve received indicate that nothing has really changed. The labor market is weak; it continues to weaken."

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly maintained her confidence that the Fed can still guide inflation back to its 2% target, suggesting the risk of an inflationary flare-up is diminished given that tariff-driven cost increases have been more moderate than anticipated. New York Fed President John Williams added to the dovish chorus, stating last Friday that the Fed could still cut rates in the "near term," significantly boosting the implied probability of a rate reduction at the December 9-10 meeting.

Last week's U.S. economic data presented a mixed but resilient picture. September's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 119,000, comfortably beating the 50,000 forecast, although the August reading was sharply revised to a 4,000 loss. The Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4%, hitting its highest level in four years. Wage growth showed moderation, with Average Hourly Earnings rising 0.2% MoM in September, slightly below the 0.3% expectation. Despite the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) being openly divided, the collective commentary from key Fed officials has increased the probability of the central bank reducing borrowing costs.

In the United Kingdom, economic signals were equally complex. Retail Sales were weaker than expected in October, and the preliminary November PMIs were mixed, with Manufacturing PMI improving, while the Services PMI edged closer to the neutral 50 threshold. Domestic focus shifts to the upcoming budget announcement by Chancellor Rachel Reeves on Wednesday, who is widely expected to need to raise tens of billions of pounds to meet the country's fiscal objectives. Technical Retracement Set to Offer New Long Opportunities_1

Technical Retracement Set to Offer New Long Opportunities_1

Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair appears to have emerged from the strong bearish impulse that began on September 17th at the local high of 1.3726 and bottomed out at 1.3011 on November 4th. The recent failure to create a new lower low suggests a potential shift toward a bullish recovery. The price has experienced a sharp move upward, which reached the 200-period Moving Average (MA), currently situated at 1.3219, while the 100-period MA is at 1.3120.

The initial rejection seen at the 200-period MA could mark the start of a minor technical correction. This pullback is likely to target the 1.3114 level, which coincides with the next major support zone. Crucially, the 100-period MA is located directly in this area, adding significant confluence. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart has reached 71, clearly entering overbought territory, supporting the case for a temporary retracement toward the 100-period MA. Should the price reach this confluence zone and successfully hold above it, it would signal a renewed bullish interest, attracting buyers for the next leg higher.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3114

Target price: 1.3290

Stop loss: 1.3020

Validity: Dec 05, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

EUR/USD jumped to five-day highs after softer U.S. PPI and Retail Sales data pressured the Dollar and boosted expectations for a December Fed rate cut.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.15801

Entry Price

1.17000

1.15000

1.16522 +0.00096 +0.08%

27.8

Pips

Profit

1.15000

1.16079

Exit Price

1.15801

Entry Price

1.17000

The Euro climbed sharply against the U.S. Dollar on Tuesday, extending a two-day recovery as disappointing U.S. economic data weakened the Greenback and shifted market sentiment firmly in favor of a December Federal Reserve rate cut. The move helped EUR/USD rebound toward five-day highs, positioning the currency pair back inside its broader ascending structure after a brief period of consolidation.

At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades around 1.1567, gaining nearly 0.40% on the day. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has slipped from its recent six-month peak, retreating toward the 99.84 region as bearish pressure intensifies. Investors appear increasingly sensitive to signs of cooling demand and softer producer prices—two dynamics that could limit the Fed’s ability to maintain a restrictive stance.

Delayed U.S. data releases for September provided a clearer window into the direction of the American economy—and the view is becoming increasingly soft. While headline Producer Price Index (PPI) data matched expectations at 0.3% MoM, the underlying components revealed weakness. Core PPI rose just 0.2%, undershooting market forecasts of 0.3% and slowing sharply to 2.6% YoY from 2.9%.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that September’s gains were largely driven by rising goods prices and a notable jump in gasoline, while the services component stagnated. With services inflation flattening—an area the Federal Reserve watches closely—the disinflation narrative gained further traction.

Retail sales figures painted a similarly downbeat picture. Headline Retail Sales rose 0.2%, missing estimates of 0.4% and slowing from 0.6% in August. On a yearly basis, sales cooled to 4.3% YoY, a noticeable drop from the nearly 5% pace recorded previously.

More worrying was the Retail Sales Control Group, a key GDP input, which fell 0.1%, sharply missing expectations for a 0.3% increase. This metric often acts as a leading signal for consumption-driven growth, and its decline reinforces concerns that U.S. consumer resilience may be fading under higher borrowing costs and sticky inflation.

The latest data adds to a growing pile of evidence suggesting the U.S. economy is gradually losing steam. Labor-market indicators echoed that sentiment: the ADP Employment Change 4-week average sank into negative territory at -13.5K, its weakest in months, compared with -2.5K in the prior reading.

With inflation moderating, consumer spending cooling, and labor-market indicators sliding, investors have ramped up expectations for a December policy shift. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in roughly 84% probability of a rate cut during the December 9–10 FOMC meeting.

The prospect of earlier-than-expected easing has weakened the Dollar across the board, providing the Euro with a strong fundamental tailwind. Several Fed officials have recently signaled openness to a more accommodative stance if economic data continues to soften—something traders view as increasingly likely.

From a macro perspective, the divergence between a slowing U.S. economy and a somewhat stabilizing European outlook has helped tilt short-term momentum in favor of the Euro. While the Eurozone continues to battle subdued growth and fragmented demand, its inflation trajectory is heading firmly toward the ECB’s desired range, reducing the pressure for aggressive cuts.

Technical Analysis

Technical indicators reinforce the bullish bias building underneath EUR/USD. The pair is currently trading inside a broad ascending structure, anchored by strong demand at the Buyer Zone between 1.1500 and 1.1510—an area that aligns with both horizontal support and the lower boundary of the rising channel.

This zone has served as a key reaction point multiple times, repeatedly generating strong bullish impulses and confirming the presence of committed buyers. Earlier in the cycle, EUR/USD broke out of a descending triangle and retested the former seller zone before sliding toward channel support, where it carved out a local bottom.

Since then, the pair has respected the primary trendline, producing a series of higher lows. A recent fake-out near mid-channel resistance showed that despite temporary dips, buyers remain firmly in control, quickly stepping in to overwhelm selling pressure.

With momentum now building again, EUR/USD approaches the 1.1600 resistance level, identified as the first major take-profit zone (TP1). This level has historically triggered corrective pullbacks, and sellers are likely preparing to defend it once more.

A confirmed break above 1.1600 would open the door toward higher levels within the ascending channel, potentially setting up a continuation toward secondary targets if Dollar weakness persists.

However, a drop below 1.1500 would invalidate the current bullish structure, exposing deeper downside levels and raising the risk of a channel breakdown. For now, the trend remains moderately bullish, supported by fundamentals and technicals aligning in favor of further Euro strength.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.1580

STOP LOSS: 1.1500

TAKE PROFIT: 1.1700

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

USD/CAD extended its five-day winning streak above 1.41 as weak oil prices, expectations of another Fed rate cut, and upcoming US–Canada data releases kept traders cautious but broadly supportive of the pair’s upside. Technicals signal room for further gains toward 1.4135–1.4250.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.41100

Entry Price

1.42500

1.40500

1.38199 +0.00052 +0.04%

60.0

Pips

Loss

1.40500

1.40499

Exit Price

1.41100

Entry Price

1.42500

The USD/CAD pair maintained a firm bullish tone on Tuesday, holding comfortably above the 1.4100 handle in early European trade as investors positioned cautiously ahead of a heavy macroeconomic calendar in both the United States and Canada. The pair is coming off its strongest weekly performance in more than two weeks, and the underlying fundamental backdrop continues to lean in favour of additional upside.

The Canadian Dollar remains pressured as oil markets struggle to stabilize. Despite a modest rebound on Monday, crude prices quickly ran into fresh selling, weighed down by persistent concerns that global supply will outweigh demand in 2025. Forecasts of rising non-OPEC output, combined with uncertainty over the resilience of global consumption, have revived market fears of a prolonged supply glut. For the commodity-linked Loonie, this backdrop is a clear negative. Each failed recovery attempt in crude reinforces the vulnerability of Canada’s terms of trade, amplifying upward pressure on USD/CAD.

The US Dollar, meanwhile, continues to benefit from steady underlying demand, even as expectations grow that the Federal Reserve may deliver another rate cut in December. Comments from several influential FOMC policymakers last week signaled increased willingness to ease policy further, citing softening economic momentum and early signs of cooling in the labour market. While these dovish expectations have limited the USD’s ability to break dramatically higher, they have not been enough to offset the broader risk-off undertone that keeps safe-haven flows alive.

For USD/CAD, the interplay is nuanced: the Fed’s potential easing path limits the USD’s top-side momentum on a broad basis, but the Loonie’s oil-driven weakness and relative macro uncertainty in Canada keep the pair supported.

Market participants are also displaying clear hesitation ahead of a dense series of economic releases. With volatility expected to rise, traders are avoiding large directional bets until they have better clarity on the health of both economies.

A delayed batch of US data kicks off the week’s momentum drivers. The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales—initially postponed—will offer the first major clues regarding inflation dynamics and consumer demand. They will be followed by Pending Home Sales and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, providing deeper insight into the cyclical sectors most sensitive to high borrowing costs.

Later in the week, the focus shifts toward Thursday’s Durable Goods Orders, a key barometer of corporate investment appetite, before attention turns north of the border. Canada’s monthly GDP print, scheduled for Friday, could be pivotal. Any indication that growth continues to underperform expectations would reinforce speculation that the Bank of Canada may need to maintain an easier policy stance for longer—another scenario favourable to upside pressure on USD/CAD.

Technical Analysis

USD/CAD’s technical posture remains decisively bullish. The pair continued its upward climb in recent sessions, bolstered by strong support along its rising trendline and consistent buying interest above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50). The market structure on shorter timeframes reveals a clean sequence of higher lows, underscoring the dominance of the prevailing uptrend.

Momentum indicators further validate the bullish case. Relative strength metrics, which recently retreated from overbought territory, are now flashing fresh positive signals following a correction phase—often a constructive sign that buyers are regaining control.

Initial resistance stands near 1.4135, a level expected to serve as the first upside objective for bulls. A decisive break above this zone could unlock further gains toward 1.4200, where psychological resistance converges with previous swing highs. Beyond that, 1.4250 emerges as the next medium-term bullish target, particularly if fundamentals continue leaning in favour of USD strength and oil-linked weakness in the Canadian Dollar.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDCAD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.4110

STOP LOSS: 1.4050

TAKE PROFIT: 1.4250

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

EUR/CHF extends its rally for an eighth session as technical buying, easing safe-haven demand, and widening ECB–SNB policy divergence lift the pair toward seven-week highs.

BUY EURCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.93501

Entry Price

0.94400

0.92700

0.93706 +0.00044 +0.05%

9.5

Pips

Profit

0.92700

0.93596

Exit Price

0.93501

Entry Price

0.94400

The Euro extended its advance against the Swiss Franc on Tuesday, pushing EUR/CHF higher for an eighth consecutive session and reinforcing a strong bullish recovery that has been unfolding since mid-November. After bottoming near 0.9179, its weakest level since 2015, the currency pair has surged steadily and now trades around 0.9344, marking its highest level in nearly seven weeks. The move signals a clear reversal in sentiment toward the Franc, which remains under sustained pressure despite no major deterioration in Switzerland’s economic fundamentals.

Traders indicate that the latest climb in EUR/CHF is driven largely by technical buying and the unwinding of elevated long-Franc positions rather than a fresh wave of Eurozone strength. The Swiss Franc had been one of the best-performing safe-haven currencies through much of the year, but with speculative positioning stretched, markets are now rotating out of the overbought currency. This short-covering dynamic has allowed the Euro to regain ground even as Eurozone data continues to paint a mixed picture.

A subtle improvement in global risk sentiment is also weighing on the Franc. Investors have trimmed defensive exposure amid early signs of diplomatic progress in US-mediated discussions aimed at refining a potential peace framework for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While any durable resolution remains far off, the mere appearance of constructive dialogue has been enough to reduce demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including the Franc. Broader equity and credit markets have also shown greater stability in recent sessions, further softening safe-haven flows.

Economic data offered little fresh impetus for Euro bulls. Germany’s updated third-quarter GDP figures released on Tuesday confirmed stagnation, with the economy registering 0.0% growth quarter-on-quarter and 0.3% year-on-year. The confirmation of flat growth avoided the gloom of contraction but did little to shift market expectations, leaving the narrative dominated by positioning and policy-driven forces rather than macroeconomic surprise.

The more influential driver continues to be the growing divergence between the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank. After implementing four rate cuts earlier in the year, the ECB has now held policy steady for three consecutive meetings. With inflation drifting closer to the ECB’s 2% target and forward-looking indicators stabilizing, policymakers have adopted a more neutral tone. Markets broadly expect the central bank to maintain this stance at the December decision, reinforcing the perception that the ECB is approaching the terminal point of its easing cycle.

The SNB, however, retains a more dovish posture. With its benchmark rate at 0% after two cuts this year, the central bank has reiterated its willingness to act again if inflation softens or if the Franc strengthens to levels that threaten domestic price stability. Yet, at the same time, SNB officials have acknowledged that inflation is likely to edge slightly higher in the coming quarters, reducing the urgency for immediate further easing. This combination—soft dovish guidance without imminent action—has weakened the Franc’s relative yield appeal and contributed to its recent depreciation.

The interplay of technical adjustment, shifting rate expectations, and improving market sentiment has produced a supportive backdrop for further Euro gains. The structural picture does not necessarily reflect newfound Eurozone optimism; rather, it points to a market reclaiming balance after months of one-sided strength in the Franc.

Technical Analysis

EUR/CHF continues to trade within a robust bullish trend, with recent price action confirming a breakout from prior consolidation phases. The pair is currently holding above the critical support zone near 0.9315, a level that previously acted as a base during sideways trading. As long as price remains above this area, the bullish structure remains intact.

A sustained rebound from 0.9315 reinforces the view that upward momentum is still in play. The immediate upside test sits near 0.9366, an area that has historically acted as a short-term ceiling. Beyond that, 0.9380 emerges as a psychologically significant barrier and a structural resistance level aligned with the broader trend. Should buyers maintain control, the pair may attempt a deeper extension toward the high-0.93s and potentially into the 0.94 zone.

Momentum indicators across intraday and daily charts continue to show improving strength, with the recovery from November’s multi-year lows aligning with both trend and sentiment-based signals. Only a decisive close below 0.9315 would threaten the bullish setup, exposing levels closer to 0.9270 and weakening the immediate upward trajectory.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURCHF

ENTRY PRICE: 0.9350

STOP LOSS: 0.9270

TAKE PROFIT: 0.9440

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Summary:

GBP/JPY is trading around 205.3–205.7 after recovering from an intraday low near 204.9, while the US Dollar Index sits almost exactly at 100 and the VIX hovers around 20...

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

205.544

Entry Price

206.800

204.300

207.112 +0.012 +0.01%

125.6

Pips

Profit

204.300

206.800

Exit Price

205.544

Entry Price

206.800

Overview

The macro backdrop remains structurally supportive for GBP/JPY, even though both sides of the cross have their own issues. On the sterling side, the Bank of England kept Bank Rate at 4% at its 5 November meeting, with a tight 5–4 vote and a minority already pushing for a 25 bp cut to 3.75%. The November Monetary Policy Report explicitly notes that CPI inflation has “peaked” and that progress on disinflation is underway, but it also emphasizes that policy is still restrictive and that the path of future cuts will be gradual and data-dependent. Markets now price a high probability of a first cut in December, yet rate differentials remain firmly in the pound’s favour versus the near-zero world that the yen only recently left.

On the yen side, the BoJ is holding its policy rate at 0.5% while telegraphing the possibility of a further hike to 0.75% in the coming meetings, but the signalling has not been strong enough to reverse the broader yen downtrend. Recent commentary from Japanese officials has focused more on warnings of FX intervention than on a decisive monetary tightening path, and external analysts still expect only very small, cautious hikes into 2026.

In that configuration, GBP/JPY is free to trade as a classic carry and risk-sensitivity pair: a relatively high-yield pound against a still-low-yield yen. Spot around 205.3–205.7 today, with a 52-week range of roughly 184–207 and recent intraday ranges between 204.85 and 205.91, confirms that we are sitting very near the top of the yearly envelope rather than in a neutral mid-range.

Market sentiment

Sentiment is cautiously risk-seeking rather than fearful, which is exactly the regime where GBP/JPY tends to perform well. The US Dollar Index is oscillating just either side of 100, a level that reflects neither an aggressive global dash into USD nor a collapse in dollar demand. At the same time, the VIX has eased back toward the low-20s, with the latest readings around 20–21 after last week’s spike, signalling that equity volatility is elevated relative to the summer but no longer flashing systemic stress.

In this environment, traders are willing to hold carry trades such as GBP/JPY as long as the macro narrative remains: BoE still restrictive, BoJ still ultra-gradual, and global growth not falling off a cliff. Recent sell-side and broker commentary has repeatedly highlighted yen weakness as the dominant theme in FX, with GBP/JPY setting or approaching yearly highs above 206 and analysts openly discussing scenarios toward the 207–210 area if the yen remains under pressure.

At the same time, there is a realistic ceiling: Japan’s Ministry of Finance has already escalated its verbal warnings about intervention, and BoJ watchers are debating whether the next rate hike comes in December or in early 2026.

That means the market is happy to buy dips but also very aware that a surprise BoJ move or real intervention headline could trigger an air-pocket lower. The current sentiment, therefore, is not “buy at any level” but “lean long as long as the intraday structure respects support and policymakers do not dramatically change tone.”

Technical analysis

GBP/JPY holds above 205 as yen stays under pressure and BoE edges slowly toward easin_1

On the M15 chart, GBP/JPY is behaving like a classic late-trend grind with controlled pullbacks. Intraday feeds show today’s range clustered between about 204.85 and 205.9, with real-time quotes near 205.3–205.7 and the 205.0 level acting as a psychological pivot.

With Bollinger Bands set to 20,0,2, price is generally holding above the mid-line rather than hugging the lower band, and short-lived dips toward the 20-period moving average in the low-205 area are being bought. That pattern repeated rebounds from the mid-line after testing the lower half of the band tends to characterise an ongoing up-swing that is consolidating before another attempt at the upper band, which currently aligns with the intraday highs just under 206.

From an Ichimoku perspective with 9,26,52 parameters, price is rotating either inside the upper part of the M15 cloud or just above it; the top of the Kumo roughly coincides with the 205.0–205.1 zone that has already acted as support today. Tenkan-sen is either flat or slightly above Kijun-sen on rebounds, signalling that short-term momentum has not yet flipped bearish, and the forward cloud maintains a mild upward tilt, which is consistent with a trend that is pausing rather than reversing.

Stochastic (5,3,3) on M15 has recently cycled down from overbought levels above 80 and is now turning higher again from the mid-range 40–50 band on shallow dips. That configuration a mid-range %K re-cross above %D while price holds over the Kumo top is typically the “reset” you want to see if you are planning to enter in the direction of the prevailing trend rather than chase the extreme. Putting these pieces together, the most logical technical stance is to buy pullbacks into the 205.0–205.1 support cluster, with a protective stop tucked below today’s structural low and the lower edge of the cloud, and a target aimed back toward the recent highs near 206.8, which line up with the yearly peak region discussed in external technical forecasts.