Data released last week showed that New Zealand’s third-quarter retail sales significantly exceeded expectations, rising 1.9% QoQ versus a consensus forecast of 0.6%. Excluding motor-vehicle sales, core retail sales still outperformed, up 1.2% QoQ against an expected 0.8%.

Statistics New Zealand noted that this was the largest quarterly increase in retail activity since late 2021, with broad-based gains across industries. Most sectors expanded in September.

Separately, the ANZ Business Confidence Index surged to an 11-year high of 67.1 from 58.1, while the survey’s Own Activity Outlook index jumped to 53.1 from 44.6—its strongest reading since 2014—indicating that the recovery is driven by a tangible improvement in real economic momentum rather than merely sentiment. ANZ stated that “signs of recovery are now visible,” with recent growth increasingly underpinned by actual economic activity.

Inflation signals, however, remain mixed. The share of firms planning to raise prices over the next three months rose from 44% to 51%, the highest since March. By contrast, the proportion expecting higher input costs edged down from 76% to 74%, while one-year-ahead inflation expectations stayed anchored at 2.7%. Taken together, these developments point to inflation pressures that are stabilising but still fall short of the disinflationary momentum that would prompt the RBNZ to initiate a fresh easing cycle.

Market outlook: The improvement in underlying fundamentals is reassuring and suggests the economic recovery is likely to persist. With the recovery under way and headline CPI sitting at the upper bound of the target band, we see no justification for further cuts to the Official Cash Rate “barring any unforeseen shocks”.

EURNZD maintains a robust upward structure on the 4-hour chart, currently quoted at 2.0283, with bulls still in control. The euro benefits from the ECB’s deferred rate-cut expectations, while the RBNZ’s latest easing has signaled limited room for further loosening, offering the Kiwi a near-term reprieve—though its underlying fundamentals remain fragile. Technically, the trend remains intact; as long as key support holds, price is well-positioned to retest the overhead resistance cluster.

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 2.0254

Target Price: 2.0863

Stop Loss: 2.0053

Valid Until: December 20, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 2.0271/2.0077/2.0004

Resistance Levels: 2.0680/2.0753/2.0850

EUR/USD strengthened further on Monday, marking its sixth consecutive day of gains and climbing beyond 1.1630, its highest level in two weeks, as persistent weakness in the US Dollar encouraged renewed bullish interest in the pair. The common currency held firm despite a downward revision to November’s Eurozone PMI readings—an indication that markets are increasingly focusing on the US monetary policy outlook rather than lingering signs of economic softness in Europe.

The Euro’s resilience comes at a moment when the broader narrative is shifting decisively toward expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week. Traders have been steadily pricing in a more dovish Fed following weeks of mixed US data and growing political pressure on the central bank. The Dollar remains under sustained pressure as markets brace for confirmation that policymakers are leaning toward policy easing.

Adding to the dovish sentiment, a Reuters report on Monday suggested that President Donald Trump may announce Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chair. Hassett—known for his ultra-dovish stance—has long championed looser monetary policy aligned with Trump’s pro-growth agenda. Should such an appointment materialize, markets would likely interpret it as another signal of prolonged accommodation, weighing further on the greenback.

Later in the session, attention turns to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to participate in a policy panel at Stanford, California. While Powell is not expected to unveil major policy shifts, traders will listen closely for tone and nuance, especially given rising uncertainty around the Fed’s future leadership. Still, the main macro catalyst of the day remains the ISM Manufacturing PMI release at 15:00 GMT—a report that could either reinforce or challenge the current market conviction around a near-term rate cut.

Technically, EUR/USD continues to show firm upward momentum as the pair attempts to breach the top boundary of the descending channel drawn from early October highs, currently around 1.1615. A sustained break above this level would be significant, marking a potential shift in medium-term trend dynamics and exposing a cluster of resistance in the 1.1800–1.1850 region, corresponding to the highs from late October and mid-November.

Momentum indicators are mixed but still support a cautiously bullish stance. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains comfortably in bullish territory near 60, suggesting continued buying interest. However, the MACD indicator is hovering near its signal line, hinting at waning upward momentum and raising the risk of near-term consolidation or a minor pullback.

Price action has also been aided by supportive short-term structure. EUR/USD has broken above its immediate resistance at 1.1605, supported by its position above the 50-period EMA and a minor bullish corrective trend line. Still, traders should be mindful of emerging overbought signals on several oscillators, which could temporarily cap upside attempts if profit-taking emerges.

BUY EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.1640

STOP LOSS: 1.1540

TAKE PROFIT: 1.1850

Canada’s Q3 GDP rebounded 0.6% QoQ (vs. –0.5% in Q2), beating consensus by a wide margin, as the trade balance improved on softer imports and a modest export lift. The print sent CAD sharply higher on reduced BoC easing bets.

The upside surprise may be partly statistical—an artefact of the deflation method and pre-tariff trade pulls—while the import-driven wedge implies underlying fragility despite the headline strength.

Focus now shifts to Friday’s November LFS release, the last major data point before the 10 Dec BoC decision.

We expect flat employment growth in November after outsized gains of 67,000 in October and 60,000 in September. Slower population growth should curb new labour-market entrants, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 6.9%—the same as in October and below the 7.1% readings of August and September.

The Canadian labour market remains slack: the jobless rate is still roughly 100 bp above our estimate of “neutral”. Yet a 6.9% print would mark the first YoY unchanged reading since May 2023.

The BoC’s October cut explicitly marked the lower bound of its estimated neutral range. Absent a material downside surprise to growth or inflation, further easing is unlikely.

USDCAD’s slide is losing momentum today, yet a daily MACD bearish divergence is in place. A close below the 1.3920 shelf is the first confirmation of a reversal. Slicing through the 38.2% retracement of the 1.3538–1.4139 leg at 1.3909 would seal the end of the up-move from 1.3538 and expose the 61.8% Fibo at 1.3768. While 1.4129 caps, any bounce retains downside skew.

On the flip-side, the April-to-date inverse head-and-shoulders base remains intact. Once the bull-flag consolidation clears, buyers are likely to re-engage.

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.3957

Target Price: 1.4289

Stop Loss: 1.3860

Valid Until: December 17, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 1.3937/1.3921/1.3888

Resistance Levels: 1.3992/1.4000/1.4040

At its latest meeting, OPEC+ decided to maintain current production levels unchanged in Q1 2026 and establish a capacity assessment mechanism. Interpreted by the market, this is a signal of "maintaining output rather than easing" shortly, which provides only limited support to oil prices without fundamentally alleviating concerns about oversupply in 2026.

In addition, geopolitical and transportation disruptions (such as temporary shutdowns of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and reports of damage to Russia–Ukraine-related facilities) created short-term expectations of supply tightness on the news front. However, the sustainability and scale of these factors remain unconfirmed, leading to fluctuating market sentiment.

Meanwhile, U.S. weekly inventory data shows no clear signs of destocking—refinery utilization rates and crude inventories have not decreased notably. Inventory structure and floating storage data suggest that hidden supply pressure persists. This indicates that even with supportive policy signals, upward momentum still requires actual inventory drawdowns to cooperate.

Overall, the current fundamental backdrop presents mixed signals of "news-driven positives (shutdowns/geopolitics)" alongside "physical inventory pressures." The near-term direction is highly dependent on inventory data over the coming weeks and OPEC+ compliance.

Based on the 4-hour chart, WTI opened higher today thanks to weekend-positive news. Now, it rebounds to the upper rail of the recent downward channel formed by price action. The previous 4-hour candle closed with a long upper shadow, indicating heavy downward pressure from the channel's upper boundary and weakening bullish momentum in the short term. Thus, WTI is more likely to plummet.

Currently, if WTI fails to break strongly and hold above the upper rail of the downward channel shortly, the downtrend is likely to persist. Conversely, a strong breakout above the channel would open up further upside potential, possibly testing resistance at 61.40.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 59.50

Target price: 55.50

Stop loss: 61.70

Valid Until: December 15, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 58.96/57.02

Resistance: 59.77/61.40

Regarding the Canadian dollar, better-than-expected quarterly GDP data has prompted traders to reduce expectations of further monetary easing by the Bank of Canada during its current rate-hike cycle, thereby supporting the CAD. Statistics Canada reported on Friday that Canada's economic growth in the third quarter was 2.6% on an annualized basis, compared to a 1.8% contraction in the second quarter (revised from a previous decline of 1.6%). This performance exceeded the prior forecast of 0.5% growth. Amid ongoing trade disruptions from U.S. tariffs, the Canadian government continues to strengthen support measures for the domestic steel and lumber sectors. Prime Minister Mark Carney announced plans to further tighten steel import quotas from non-free trade agreement countries, reducing them from the initial 50% of the 2024 baseline to 20%. Quotas from FTA partner countries will also be cut from 100% to 75%, while imports from the U.S. and Mexico remain unaffected due to the constraints of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA). The government also plans to impose a 25% global tariff on certain steel derivative products and implement tighter anti-dumping measures at borders to expand domestic market access. Previously, import quotas for non-free trade countries were limited to 50% of 2024 levels. These measures are viewed as another extension of Canada's crackdown on steel dumping. The steel industry plays a vital role in the Canadian economy, contributing over 4 billion CAD to GDP and supporting more than 23,000 jobs. However, the industry faced severe setbacks following U.S. President Trump's imposition of a 50% tariff on Canadian steel. To mitigate these impacts, the Canadian government will collaborate with railway companies starting in 2026 to cut interprovincial transportation costs for steel and timber by half, encourage increased use of domestically produced steel and timber within the construction sector, and provide financial support to businesses adversely affected by tariffs to help them manage workforce restructuring, cash flow challenges, and operational adjustments.

Traders are closely monitoring the release of the U.S. November ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, seeking potential new market catalysts. Following dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials and a series of underwhelming economic data releases, investor expectations for a rate cut by the Fed in December have intensified. This outlook could exert short-term downward pressure on the USDCAD. According to the CME FedWatch tool, market participants currently assign an 87% probability to a 25 basis point rate reduction at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Additionally, reports suggest that White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett has emerged as a leading candidate for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, potentially further depreciating the dollar. Hassett, considered a close ally of President Donald Trump, supports faster and more significant rate cuts to stimulate economic growth.

In the 1D timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are contracting, indicating a narrowing volatility. The short-term moving average, EMA12, has flattened, and the price is oscillating around the EMA50. The MACD shows diminishing bullish momentum, with the MACD line and signal line approaching a potential death cross, suggesting a high probability of decline toward the EMA200 support zone, approximately around the 1.39 level. The RSI is at 44, reflecting strong bearish sentiment and implying that a short-term correction is still underway. In the 1H timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are expanding downward; following a golden cross, the MACD's MACD line and signal line are retracing toward the zero-axis but still remain some distance away, indicating the correction has not yet concluded. Key support levels are near the lower Bollinger Band and psychological round numbers at approximately 1.393 and 1.39, with the RSI around 40, further evidencing prevailing market pessimism. Therefore, it is recommended to go short at the highs.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.399

Target Price: 1.386

Stop Loss: 1.405

Support: 1.393, 1.39, 1.386

Resistance: 1.414, 1.42, 1.44

Last week, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves unveiled a new budget centered on tax increases, which became the market's focal point. The budget includes multiple tax adjustments and spending measures aimed at expanding fiscal space and addressing public finance pressures. Moreover, it also sparked widespread discussion about growth prospects and policy feasibility. Tax measures form the main source of additional revenue. The government plans to freeze the income tax personal allowance again for three years starting in 2028, expected to raise £7.6 billion by the 2029/30 fiscal year. An annual supplemental tax on high-value residential properties will be introduced — homes worth over £2 million and £5 million will be taxed at £2,500 and £7,500 respectively, projected to raise over £400 million by 2031. In transport, the fuel duty cut will be extended until September 2026. To offset the revenue shortfall from rising electric vehicle (EV) adoption, an EV mileage tax will be introduced from April 2028: pure EVs will be charged 3 pence per mile, plug-in hybrids 1.5 pence per mile, and is expected to generate £1.4 billion. Additionally, the budget raises dividend tax rates by 2 percentage points, reforms business property taxes, and increases betting and alcohol duties, among other measures, with total new tax revenue exceeding £26 billion. From a medium- to long-term perspective, delayed implementation of tax hikes, weak productivity expectations, and concerns over debt sustainability may continue to exert downward pressure on the pound.

Due to market uncertainty and dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, traders have increased bets on Fed rate cuts, pushing the dollar lower and creating headwinds for USD-related pairs. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the implied probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed's December meeting has risen to 87%, up from 71% a week ago. Last week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said current data show the labor market remains weak enough to warrant another 25-basis-point cut in December. Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicated she supports cutting rates next month, noting that a sudden deterioration in the job market is more likely and harder to control than a surge in inflation.

Based on the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD is oscillating around the EMA12, with MACD forming a death cross. The signal and MACD lines are moving back toward the zero axis but are still some distance away, indicating the adjustment is not yet complete. If the price breaks below EMA12 and EMA200, it is likely to pull back to near EMA50 at around 1.318. RSI stands at 54, reflecting a wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Regarding the daily chart, the pair is pressured by EMA200 and the Bollinger upper Band. In the short term, it may return to near the Bollinger Middle Band at approximately 1.315. After the MACD golden cross, the MACD and signal lines are retracing toward the zero axis, signaling that a trend reversal could occur at any time. RSI is at 53, still showing market hesitation. Overall, the recent short-term rebound appears to be nearing its end. Therefore, it is better to sell at highs.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.322

Target price: 1.29

Stop loss: 1.34

Support: 1.3/ 1.29/ 1.28

Resistance: 1.326/ 1.33/ 1.34