The British Pound–Japanese Yen (GBP/JPY) cross extended its decline for a second consecutive session on Friday, pulling further away from the seven-month highs seen earlier this week near 205.30. The pair was last trading around 203.25, down roughly 0.20% on the day, as traders reassessed Japan’s evolving political landscape and its implications for monetary policy. Despite the latest pullback, GBP/JPY remains on course for solid weekly gains, underscoring the tension between Japan’s fiscal uncertainty and the United Kingdom’s relatively stable policy outlook.

The latest bout of weakness in the pair comes in the wake of Sanae Takaichi’s surprise victory in the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) leadership race last weekend—a development that sets her on track to become Japan’s first female prime minister. Markets initially interpreted her win as a sign of potentially more expansionary fiscal policies, given her history of supporting government stimulus to spur domestic growth. This sparked speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might delay further interest rate hikes, prompting a notable selloff in the Yen earlier in the week as investors anticipated looser fiscal-monetary coordination.

However, the tone shifted midweek after Takaichi struck a more cautious note on currency stability. In her first major comments following the leadership result, she stated that “excessive declines in the Yen are undesirable,” signaling some concern about recent depreciation pressures. Her remarks were reinforced by Finance Minister Shunichi Kato, who emphasized that authorities would “monitor for excessive fluctuations and disorderly movements” in the foreign exchange market. These statements served as a form of verbal intervention, offering temporary relief for Yen bulls and helping the currency recover modestly from its earlier lows.

Adding to the mixed policy signals, economic advisors close to Takaichi—including Etsuro Honda and Takuji Aida—indicated that the incoming government would likely tolerate a rate hike by the BoJ either in December or January. With inflation running above the BoJ’s 2% target for over three years and Japan’s economy logging five consecutive quarters of growth, some policymakers see room for additional tightening despite fiscal expansion plans. This evolving narrative has introduced new uncertainty into Yen trading, as markets weigh the balance between stimulus-driven growth and inflation-containment priorities.

The cautious global market mood ahead of key U.S. data has also added to the Yen’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, amplifying downside pressure on GBP/JPY. Risk appetite remains subdued as traders brace for next week’s U.S. inflation figures and further clarity on the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory, both of which could impact cross-asset sentiment.

Still, the downside for GBP/JPY appears limited in the near term. The British Pound continues to draw support from expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain its policy rate at 4.0% for the remainder of 2025, resisting calls for aggressive easing. Recent data indicating sticky inflation and a surprisingly resilient U.K. economy have reduced market bets on near-term rate cuts. With wage growth still strong and service-sector inflation proving stubborn, policymakers in Threadneedle Street are in no rush to pivot dovish—keeping the Pound supported even as global risk sentiment wavers.

From a technical perspective, GBP/JPY’s near-term bias has turned slightly bearish following its sharp rally earlier in the week. The pair is currently hovering close to a key pullback resistance zone near 203.18, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent upswing. A sustained failure to reclaim this level could invite renewed selling pressure toward 202.12, where an overlap support area aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the prior advance. On the upside, any recovery attempts could meet stiff resistance around 204.50, just below the 78.6% Fibonacci level, which serves as an ideal stop-loss threshold for bearish setups.

SELL GBPJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 202.80

STOP LOSS: 204.50

TAKE PROFIT: 201.00

The Australian Dollar drifted lower against the U.S. Dollar on Friday, edging toward the 0.6550 level during the late European trading session as risk sentiment remained fragile. The Greenback’s resilience has been underpinned by recent political instability in Japan and France, which has encouraged investors to seek safety in the U.S. Dollar despite growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver further interest rate cuts later this year.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was holding near a two-month high around 99.50. This firm tone reflects the cautious stance investors have adopted amid heightened global political tensions and a lack of confidence in risk assets. The Dollar’s strength comes at a time when many expected it to lose momentum following the Fed’s recent policy shift, highlighting that broader risk aversion continues to dominate the narrative in currency markets.

However, the medium-term outlook for the Greenback remains uncertain. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders currently see an 81.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of its remaining two meetings this year. This view is supported by a growing number of Fed officials who have expressed concern about softening labor market conditions and the need to “risk manage” potential downside risks to the economy. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasized this sentiment on Thursday, saying that the recent weakening in the labor market could become more worrisome if not properly managed, according to Reuters.

Investors will now turn their attention to upcoming U.S. economic releases for confirmation that the economy is continuing to slow. Later in Friday’s session, the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Inflation Expectations data for October will be released at 14:00 GMT. Market forecasts suggest the sentiment index will fall slightly to 54.2 from 55.1 in September, signaling that U.S. consumers remain cautious amid persistent inflation pressures and lingering uncertainty about the economic outlook.

The next major catalyst for the Australian Dollar will come early next week when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) releases the minutes of its September policy meeting. The RBA left its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 3.6% in that meeting, striking a balance between addressing persistent inflation risks and avoiding unnecessary pressure on household spending. RBA Governor Michelle Bullock remarked that while certain components of the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in slightly higher than anticipated, inflation “is not running away,” a statement that reinforced expectations that the central bank would remain on hold in the near term.

Despite inflation still sitting above the RBA’s target range, recent data has pointed to signs of easing in consumer demand and a gradual moderation in wage pressures. Policymakers appear increasingly confident that inflation will continue to trend lower without the need for further aggressive tightening. Nevertheless, markets remain divided over whether the RBA will eventually join other major central banks in cutting rates in early 2026 if global demand conditions deteriorate further.

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair remains locked in a bearish corrective pattern. Although the pair attempted to stage a modest intraday rebound on Friday to unwind oversold conditions on relative strength indicators, momentum remains weak. The recovery attempts are being capped by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average, a level that has consistently acted as dynamic resistance in recent weeks. As long as the pair trades below this threshold, the broader bias remains to the downside. The market has been trading alongside a descending support trendline, suggesting that the path of least resistance remains lower unless a strong breakout occurs above the 0.6590 area.

The technical setup indicates that the pair’s recent uptick is merely a pullback within a broader downtrend. Price action suggests that sellers may reassert control near the 0.6570 zone, where prior swing highs have repeatedly rejected upside momentum. A failure to hold above this area would likely invite renewed bearish pressure toward the 0.6520 level, which coincides with an overlap support zone just above the 61.8% Fibonacci projection. If this level breaks decisively, a further decline toward the 0.6475 region could follow, extending the pair’s bearish structure.

SELL AUDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6550

STOP LOSS: 0.6610

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6475

On Friday, the Israeli government approved a ceasefire agreement with Hamas, paving the way for a 24-hour halt to hostilities in Gaza and a 72-hour window for the release of Israeli hostages held in Gaza, despite ongoing Israeli military operations in the besieged territory. ANZ Bank analysts stated in a report that slowing economic growth, rising inflation, shifts in the geopolitical landscape, and diversification of U.S. assets and the dollar will sustain strong investment demand and central bank gold purchases, while further interest rate cuts are likely to support gold prices. Senior analyst Matt Simpson noted, "Volatility in the options market has increased, but gold also offers downside protection during this final phase of the rally. For gold bulls, it appears to be an opportune moment to realize profits. However, I anticipate that the pullback may be limited."

Due to the anticipated prolonged government shutdown in the U.S. extending into next week, the Senate will observe an extended weekend, resuming operations on Tuesday, which sustains risk aversion in the market. Additionally, as traders digest the latest dovish remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers, the decline in Asian equities and the pause in the U.S. dollar's rally have provided support for gold prices. According to Reuters, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams expressed support for further interest rate cuts this year during an interview with The New York Times. Concurrently, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicated earlier on Friday that the Federal Reserve anticipates additional rate reductions, citing risk management considerations. Following delays in key economic data releases and the absence of monetary policy commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, market participants are eagerly awaiting the publication of University of Michigan consumer confidence and inflation expectation figures to gain new policy insights and trading impetus. Investors are also monitoring the latest report from The New York Times, which states that despite the ongoing government shutdown, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics remains committed to releasing the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

The 1H timeframe indicates that the Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with the SMAs diverging downward. The price is oscillating along the EMA12 in a descending pattern. The MACD exhibits a death cross, suggesting a weakening of bearish momentum, yet no reversal has occurred, indicating the short-term trend remains bearish. The RSI is at 37, reflecting market pessimism. As long as there is no effective breakout above the EMA12, a decline toward 3927, possibly even 3882, is likely. In the 1D timeframe, the price is oscillating along the EMA12 and the upper Bollinger Band in an upward trend. The MACD has formed a golden cross without signs of diminishing bullish momentum, and the RSI is at 72, entering overbought territory, indicating a high probability of short-term correction. However, as long as the gold price does not break below the EMA12 convincingly, the upward trend remains intact. It is recommended to go long at the lows.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3945

Target Price: 4500

Stop Loss: 3800

Support: 3880, 3800, 3550

Resistance: 4050, 4100, 4500

OPEC+ recently announced a modest production increase in November, which the market interprets as a signal from member countries to replenish market share and counteract weakening demand, thereby exerting medium-term downward pressure on crude oil prices.

However, short-term supply dynamics are characterized by counterbalancing factors: on one hand, increased production expectations from U.S. shale producers and OPEC+ suggest a more ample global supply in the coming months; on the other hand, ongoing attacks by Ukraine on Russian refineries and oil transportation infrastructure have been reported to potentially reduce Russian gasoline and fuel exports by approximately 20%, causing localized and short-term upward pressure on refined product prices and providing support to crude oil prices. Overall, the tension between supply-side "production optimism" and "localized disruptions" increases price sensitivity to the events.

The latest data on inventory levels and demand dynamics further intensifies this divergence. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly report indicates a net increase in commercial crude oil inventories over the past week, totaling approximately 420 million barrels. Meanwhile, refinery utilization rates remain elevated at around 92%, suggesting that refining capacity remains robust, but the accelerated flow of products and crude oil in and out of storage points to heightened throughput. Additionally, market data and industry research highlight a week-on-week increase of approximately 3.7 to 4.0 million barrels in U.S. commercial inventories, signaling a short-term oversupply that exerts downward pressure on oil prices.

In the 1D timeframe, WTI crude oil experienced a breakdown and subsequent decline on October 2nd. Recently, it has initiated a technical correction and rebound; however, yesterday's rebound was rejected at the 20-day SMA, resulting in a bearish close. This indicates that in the short term, WTI is likely to continue its downward trend, with the primary support level at 60.00. A breach below this threshold could potentially open the path toward a further decline to 56.00.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 60.80

Target Price: 56.50

Stop Loss: 62.60

Valid Until: October 24, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 60.00, 56.00

Resistance: 61.50, 62.48

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently met with U.S. President Donald Trump to discuss countermeasures against U.S. tariffs on goods such as steel and automobiles. During the meeting, Carney raised the possibility of reviving the Keystone XL oil pipeline project. This approximately 1,900-kilometer pipeline is designed to transport 830,000 barrels of crude oil daily from Alberta’s oil sands region in Canada to the Cushing storage hub in Oklahoma, and then on to refineries along the Gulf Coast. Since its proposal in 2008, the project has faced numerous setbacks: it was rejected during the Obama administration due to strong opposition from environmental groups and Indigenous communities, was revived under Trump, but was halted again in 2021 when the Biden administration revoked key permits. Although Trump expressed support for restarting the project in February this year and promised swift approval, the project operator, TC Energy, had already spun off its pipeline business into a separate entity, South Bow, last October after suffering significant losses. South Bow has since explicitly stated that it has abandoned the Keystone XL project. Currently, Canada has not confirmed whether any companies are willing to take over the construction, and negotiations remain in the early stages, with further discussions to evaluate the proposal. On Thursday, the Canadian dollar, which is tied to commodities, faced challenges due to falling crude oil prices, with the currency pair rising by about 0.5%. As the largest oil exporter to the U.S., Canada is seeing downward pressure on the Canadian dollar amid falling oil prices. Additionally, the recent agreement between Israel and Hamas on the first phase of a ceasefire plan has reduced geopolitical risk premiums, further weighing on oil prices.

The outlook for Federal Reserve policy is broadly shrouded in dovish sentiment, which could pose challenges for the U.S. dollar. On Friday, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said that inflation levels are far below her previous concerns, and the Fed is expected to further reduce risk management measures. New York Federal Reserve President John Williams stated that, given the risks of a slowdown in the labor market, he supports another rate cut by the Fed this year. He expects that if inflation edges back up to around 3% and the unemployment rate rises moderately, the policy rate will adjust along the intended path. Williams emphasized that the Fed needs to strike a balance between curbing inflation and supporting the job market, noting that Trump's trade tariffs have a limited impact on inflation, raising it by only about 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr took a more cautious stance, warning of simultaneous risks of rising inflation and a weakening labor market, and stressing the need to avoid overly rapid rate cuts. He predicted that the core PCE inflation rate could exceed 3% by the end of the year, with overall inflation not returning to the 2% target until the end of 2027.

Based on the 4H chart, the Bollinger Bands and moving averages are diverging upwards. The price has broken above the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle with a strong bullish candlestick, and the MACD bullish momentum expanded again, indicating a short-term uptrend. The RSI reading of 66 suggests strong bullish sentiment in the market. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upward in the weekly chart, with moving averages poised to form a golden cross. The price is fluctuating near the Bollinger Upper Band. After forming a golden cross, the MACD line and the signal line are expected to return above the zero axis. The RSI reading is 58, with lows gradually rising, suggesting a high likelihood of further upside toward the 1.41–1.44 range. Buying at lows is recommended.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.4024

Target price: 1.44

Stop loss: 1.38

Support: 1.378/1.37/1.357

Resistance: 1.4/1.401/1.44

EUR/CAD reached a high of 1.6404 on October 3, 2025, marking its highest level in 2025. However, since then, the pair has declined, with the latest close on October 9 at 1.6213. This represents a 1.17% decrease from the peak. The Canadian dollar has shown strength recently, potentially due to rising oil prices and expectations of hawkish monetary policy from the Bank of Canada.

Sentiment towards EUR/CAD is currently cautious. The recent decline in the pair suggests that traders are becoming more risk-averse, possibly due to concerns over the Eurozone's economic outlook and the Canadian dollar's resilience. The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic data releases and central bank statements for further direction.

Support Levels: The immediate support level is at 1.6200, followed by 1.6100.

Resistance Levels: The nearest resistance is at 1.6300, with a stronger resistance at 1.6400.

Moving Averages: The price is currently below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish trend.

RSI: The Relative Strength Index is approaching 30, suggesting that the pair is nearing oversold conditions but still has room to decline.

Entry: Consider entering a short position if EUR/CAD breaks below the 1.6200 support level, with confirmation from technical indicators.

Take Profit: 1.6100

Stop Loss: Place a stop loss above the 1.6300 resistance level to manage risk.