USD/JPY Edges Higher as Traders Digest U.S. Data, Await Fed Remarks

Economic

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The U.S. Dollar strengthened against the Japanese Yen on Thursday, buoyed by hotter-than-expected retail sales data and diverging monetary policy outlooks between the Fed and Bank of Japan.

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

148.499

Entry Price

150.000

146.800

154.920 -0.425 -0.27%

169.9

Pips

Loss

146.800

Exit Price

148.499

Entry Price

150.000

The U.S. Dollar gained renewed strength against the Japanese Yen on Thursday, with the USD/JPY pair rebounding decisively from the prior session’s decline as investors digested fresh economic data and awaited new insights into the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook. At the time of writing, the pair was up 0.47% on the day, trading near 148.80 and closing in on the psychologically important 149.00 barrier—a level that has historically triggered volatility and intervention speculation from Japanese authorities.

This latest upward move follows a 0.72% decline in the previous session, which had raised questions about the sustainability of the Dollar’s recent rally. However, Thursday’s better-than-expected U.S. retail sales data provided an immediate boost to sentiment around the Greenback, reaffirming the economy’s underlying resilience and reinforcing the Fed’s current policy stance.

June’s retail sales figures came in much stronger than anticipated, rising 0.6% month-on-month compared to market expectations of just a 0.1% increase. This marked a sharp recovery from the revised 0.9% contraction in May and signaled that U.S. consumer demand—still the cornerstone of the American economy—remains robust despite elevated interest rates and sticky inflation.

The data not only eased recession fears but also strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain its policy rate at current elevated levels for longer. With inflation still trending above the Fed’s 2% target, stronger consumer spending could keep price pressures elevated, complicating the central bank’s efforts to pivot toward monetary easing.

Fed policymakers have remained cautious in recent weeks, emphasizing the need for patience and additional data before committing to any rate cuts. Several officials are scheduled to speak throughout Thursday, and traders are now laser-focused on whether their remarks will reinforce or challenge current market pricing.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 54.3% probability of a rate cut in September, though nearly half of the market still sees the Fed holding steady through October. That split outlook highlights the degree of uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s next steps—a theme that has dominated rate markets for much of the year.

In stark contrast, the Bank of Japan remains committed to its ultra-loose policy stance, maintaining its short-term interest rate target near 0.5%. While Governor Kazuo Ueda has signaled that the BoJ is prepared to exit yield curve control eventually, policymakers continue to warn against premature tightening, citing the fragile nature of Japan’s economic recovery and still-muted wage growth.

This persistent divergence in central bank policy is a key driver behind the Dollar’s strength against the Yen. With U.S. Treasury yields hovering well above their Japanese counterparts, global capital continues to flow into Dollar-denominated assets, further pressuring the Yen. The widening yield differential has become even more critical as the Fed pushes back against premature expectations of easing, while the BoJ remains in no rush to normalize policy.

Japan’s Ministry of Finance has previously signaled concern over the Yen’s depreciation, particularly around the 150.00 level—a threshold that, if approached, could revive intervention threats. While no concrete steps have been taken recently, market participants remain alert for signs of verbal or actual intervention if USD/JPY accelerates further.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY appears poised for continued gains. The pair rebounded off its 50-period exponential moving average (EMA50) on intraday charts, using it as dynamic support to launch a fresh push higher. Price also respected a minor ascending trendline, suggesting that bulls remain in control of the short-term structure.

Moreover, momentum indicators are turning increasingly favorable. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which had previously signaled overbought conditions, has now reset and begun to point upward again—creating a constructive backdrop for more upside. These developments open the door for a sustained challenge of the 149.00 resistance zone, with 150.00 looming as a potential medium-term target should bullish momentum continue.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 148.50

STOP LOSS: 146.80

TAKE PROFIT: 150.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices fell nearly 1% on Thursday, trading near $3,315 during the European session as upbeat U.S. retail sales and jobless claims strengthened the Dollar and dented demand for non-yielding assets.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3320.00

Entry Price

3260.00

3360.00

4198.96 +1.05 +0.03%

400.0

Pips

Loss

3260.00

3360.05

Exit Price

3320.00

Entry Price

3360.00

Gold came under pressure during Thursday’s European session, with spot prices slipping toward $3,315 as stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data bolstered the U.S. Dollar and weighed on the precious metal. The move represents a nearly 1% decline on the day, highlighting renewed caution among traders as they recalibrate expectations around the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory.

The pullback in gold follows the release of upbeat U.S. retail sales and jobless claims figures that reignited speculation the Fed may keep rates elevated longer than markets had anticipated. The latest data showed retail sales in June rose by 0.6%, significantly beating consensus estimates of a 0.1% increase. This comes after May’s contraction of 0.9%, signaling a rebound in consumer spending — a critical engine for the U.S. economy. Simultaneously, weekly jobless claims also surprised to the downside, reinforcing the picture of a resilient labor market.

Together, the data have injected fresh strength into the U.S. Dollar, which tends to move inversely to gold. Treasury yields also moved modestly higher in the wake of the release, adding additional pressure on non-yielding assets like gold that offer no interest or dividend. Investors are now re-evaluating the likelihood of rate cuts this year, with growing concerns that the Fed may remain on the sidelines longer than initially priced in.

The near-term path for gold will largely depend on incoming communication from Federal Reserve officials. Several policymakers are scheduled to speak throughout the day, including Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Governor Lisa Cook, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Their commentary will be parsed for signals on whether the central bank views recent data as temporary noise or a reason to delay policy easing further.

So far, most Fed officials have struck a cautious tone, emphasizing the importance of incoming inflation and employment data before committing to a timeline for rate reductions. Market expectations have already shifted materially since the start of the year, when investors were anticipating as many as three rate cuts by the end of 2025. Now, futures markets have priced in fewer cuts, with many economists betting the first move could be delayed well into the fourth quarter.

This evolving narrative has proven particularly problematic for gold, which had previously surged to record highs above $3,400 earlier this year on the back of falling inflation and a softer interest rate outlook. The metal has since retreated but remains elevated on a historical basis, with strong central bank demand and geopolitical uncertainty providing some support beneath the surface.

Still, the combination of rising real yields and a stubbornly hawkish Fed presents a formidable headwind for further gains. Should economic data continue to outperform, it could open the door for more pronounced corrections in gold, particularly if the Dollar sustains its current momentum.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the recent price action reinforces the bearish outlook in the short term. Gold broke below a critical support level around $3,328, a threshold that had previously provided a reliable floor for price consolidation. The breach of this level has opened the path for further declines, with the next key area of support seen near $3,260 — a level that technical traders are eyeing as the next potential magnet for price.

Momentum indicators are also pointing south, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rolling over from neutral territory and suggesting that downside momentum could accelerate. The metal is also trading below its 50-period moving average, which now serves as dynamic resistance. If gold fails to reclaim the $3,328 level in the coming sessions, the bearish bias is likely to deepen.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3320

STOP LOSS: 3360

TAKE PROFIT: 3260

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Euro extended losses against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday, falling toward a three-week low as political tension between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell unnerved markets.

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.16000

Entry Price

1.14500

1.17500

1.16524 +0.00098 +0.08%

150.0

Pips

Loss

1.14500

1.17500

Exit Price

1.16000

Entry Price

1.17500

The Euro came under sustained selling pressure on Thursday, retreating further against the U.S. Dollar amid rising investor unease sparked by a renewed political standoff in Washington. As the European session unfolded, EUR/USD touched session lows near 1.1575 and edged closer to the three-week low of 1.1565. The move extended the pair’s bearish trend, which has been in place since early July when it peaked near 1.1830. The safe-haven appeal of the Dollar remained intact as market participants positioned themselves cautiously ahead of high-impact U.S. data.

The latest bout of risk aversion was triggered by fresh turmoil surrounding the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump once again aired his frustrations with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, stating that he did not intend to fire him but openly suggested that Powell should resign. While the president’s comments initially appeared to calm fears of immediate disruption, he further stoked controversy by proposing Powell could be dismissed over alleged mismanagement and excessive costs associated with the renovation of the Fed’s historic headquarters. Trump even floated the possibility of fraud, comments that drew swift denial from a Federal Reserve spokesperson.

This extraordinary escalation in rhetoric has revived longstanding concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve. Investors have begun to speculate whether Trump may seek to replace Powell with a more dovish figure, potentially one more aligned with the White House’s preference for looser monetary policy. The prospect of such a move has raised alarms in financial markets, with analysts warning that it could erode the credibility of the Fed and undermine trust in the broader U.S. financial system.

As the Dollar gained broadly, the Euro showed little capacity to recover despite relatively stable inflation figures from the Eurozone. Final Consumer Price Index data for June confirmed preliminary readings, with headline inflation rising by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.0% on an annual basis. This marked a slight acceleration from the 1.9% rate recorded in May. Core inflation, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, increased by 0.4% on the month and 2.3% year-on-year, consistent with prior estimates.

While these figures suggest inflationary pressures remain steady, they were insufficient to alter the prevailing policy outlook for the European Central Bank. ECB officials have signaled in recent weeks that they are prepared to remain accommodative for longer if needed, especially if the recovery across the bloc falters or if inflation again drifts below target. As a result, the Euro continues to lack meaningful fundamental drivers to counterbalance the Dollar’s strength, especially in a risk-off environment.

Technical Analysis

Technically, the EUR/USD pair has entered a critical phase. The price remains locked within a downward corrective structure, and recent moves have taken it below key support trendlines. The bearish bias has been reinforced by the pair’s position below its 50-period exponential moving average, a sign that upward momentum has faded significantly. Adding to the pressure, the Relative Strength Index has resumed its downward slope, signaling a return of bearish momentum after a brief period of consolidation.

Traders are closely watching the 1.1565 level as a pivotal support. A decisive break below this region would expose the psychologically significant 1.1500 handle, with further downside potential toward 1.1450 in the medium term. That zone is considered a strategic technical target by many analysts tracking the pair’s long-term trajectory. The market setup also suggests that any near-term rallies may be viewed as selling opportunities, particularly if price action fails to reclaim key resistance levels near 1.1620.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.1600

STOP LOSS: 1.1750

TAKE PROFIT: 1.1450

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Economic

Forex

Summary:

Summary: The British pound is driven higher by the UK Consumer Price Index; however, the rebound remains limited. Although the Bank of England may consider a rate cut in August, the current economic outlook is less clear. Divergences within the Monetary Policy Committee are evident, and the likelihood of the GBPUSD continuing to fluctuate downward remains very high.

SELL GBPUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

1.35200

Entry Price

1.34500

1.35500

1.33377 +0.00065 +0.05%

Pips

EXPIRED

1.34500

1.34362

Exit Price

1.35200

Entry Price

1.35500

Fundamentals

Last night, the GBPUSD experienced a sudden sharp rally to approximately 1.3486, driven by media reports of a closed-door meeting between Trump and Republican Congress members discussing the potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chair Powell. Trump later clarified it was a "misunderstanding," but the market reaction caused significant volatility. Additionally, June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core CPI data showed accelerated inflation, with a notable surge in goods prices. This development has raised concerns about the pass-through effects of tariffs and has added complexity to the Bank of England's future monetary policy trajectory. While a rate cut remains possible in August, the outlook has become less clear amid internal disagreements within the Monetary Policy Committee. Hawkish members, such as Chief Economist Huw Pill, who opposed easing in May, may again oppose further loosening. Even if the easing cycle continues, the Bank of England has limited room to deviate from its quarterly rate reduction target to maintain sufficiently tight policy to anchor inflation expectations. Consequently, the GBPUSD is very likely to remain volatile with a downward bias.

Technical Analysis

The GBPUSD in the 1D timeframe has broken below the upward trendline, and after a rebound confirmation, it has yet to regain above the trendline, indicating a confirmed breakdown. From the MACD in the 1D timeframe, the green momentum bars, representing bullish strength, are gradually weakening, yet the price has reached a new high, signaling a bearish divergence. In the 1W timeframe, the MACD signal line has formed a death cross, suggesting a high probability of continued decline in the near term, with a strategy focused on going short at the highs. Combining the 1D and 1W analyses, the key support level is around 1.311; if this holds, a genuine rebound may occur, otherwise, the downward trend is likely to persist.

GBPUSD Surge Was Short-lived! Is This a Reversal or a Continuation of the Downtrend?_1

GBPUSD Surge Was Short-lived! Is This a Reversal or a Continuation of the Downtrend?_2

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.352

Target Price: 1.345

Stop Loss: 1.355

Support: 1.336, 1.33, 1.311

Resistance: 1.344, 1.35, 1.352

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices are oscillating at elevated levels amidst intertwined policy divergence and geopolitical risks. Key levels to watch are support at 3320–3300 and resistance at 3377.41.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3331.16

Entry Price

3390.00

3295.00

4198.96 +1.05 +0.03%

237.0

Pips

Profit

3295.00

3354.86

Exit Price

3331.16

Entry Price

3390.00

Fundamentals

The gold market currently operates within a complex environment shaped by macroeconomic policies and geopolitical risks.

The minutes from the June FOMC meeting revealed significant disagreement among voters over the pace of rate cuts: Governor Waller advocated for a cut in July, while Goolsbee warned that Trump's proposed new tariffs could delay the easing cycle. This policy uncertainty, coupled with Trump's repeated public pressure on the Fed (e.g., denying rumors of firing Powell), has heightened market concerns about the credibility of the US dollar system, driving safe-haven flows into gold.

Meanwhile, the global de-dollarization trend continues to deepen, with central bank gold buying providing long-term support. Over 95% of central banks plan to increase gold reserves in the coming year. China has expanded its reserves for 8 consecutive months to 2,298 tons, while countries like Poland aim to double their reserves to bolster financial independence.

Regarding capital flows, global gold ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $38 billion in H1 2024, with total holdings reaching a near three-year high. Notably, SPDR Gold Trust holdings rose to 950.79 tons, reflecting sustained institutional investor appetite for gold's safe-haven properties.

Geopolitically, Israeli airstrikes in Syria escalated Middle East tensions, though potential ceasefire progress could reduce this risk premium. Bullish and bearish forces achieved a dynamic balance within this environment, trapping gold prices in a high-level oscillation.

Technical Analysis

On July 16th, gold exhibited dramatic volatility. Early New York trading saw prices fall to an intraday low of 3319.75. However, after Bloomberg reported that Trump is likely to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell soon, gold surged rapidly by $50 to 3377.41 (a three-week high), thanks to risk aversion. Then, the gain diminished after Trump's denial, and the daily chart was closed at 3347.43 with a long upper shadow.

Policy Divergence vs. Geopolitical Games: Where Is Gold Heading?_1

The daily chart reveals ongoing consolidation between the 5-day and 10-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). While the 5-day SMA was briefly breached, support near the 10-day SMA held, indicating a stalemate between bulls and bears within this range and a current lack of directional conviction. Nevertheless, the ascending trendline connecting recent lows remains valid, suggesting the overall bias still leans toward upside potential.

Key support forms at the psychological barriers of 3320.00 and 3300.00 – a critical defense line for bulls. Holding above this zone could see gold retest resistance at 3377.41. A decisive break below support would likely trigger technical selling pressure.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 3330.00

Target price: 3390.00

Stop loss: 3295.00

Valid Until: July 31, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 3319.75/3300.00

Resistance: 3377.41/3400.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Economic

Forex

Summary:

Summary: Following the release of PPI data and the speculation that U.S. President Trump may soon dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Powell, the US dollar index experienced a significant plunge. However, where there is risk, there is opportunity; last night may have presented a "golden entry point," offering an optimal buying opportunity.

BUY USDX

Close Time

CLOSED

97.900

Entry Price

98.700

97.500

98.830 -0.120 -0.12%

9.0

Pips

Profit

97.500

97.990

Exit Price

97.900

Entry Price

98.700

Fundamentals

According to the report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) in June increased by 2.3% year-over-year, below the forecast of 2.5% and the previous value of 2.6%. Month-over-month, the PPI remained unchanged, compared to an expected 0.2% and a prior increase of 0.1%. The core PPI for June rose by 2.6% year-over-year, slightly below the anticipated 2.7% and the previous 3%. Month-over-month, it was flat, with an expectation of 0.2%, revised from 0.1% to 0.4%.

The underperformance of the June PPI is primarily attributed to a decline in service sector prices, indicating that businesses are absorbing some of the increased costs resulting from higher import tariffs. Prior to this PPI release, consumer price data for June had already reflected the penetration of higher tariffs into categories such as household goods, appliances, and entertainment products. Although inflation has remained moderate this year, many economists anticipate a gradual uptick as more companies attempt to pass on rising trade costs. Market watchers closely monitor the PPI, as certain subcomponents are used to calculate the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure—the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE). In June, performance across these categories, including airfares, was mixed.

Following the release of PPI data and the leak of President Trump's potential plan to dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Powell "soon," the US dollar index experienced a significant plunge. However, where there is risk, there is opportunity; last night may have presented a "golden entry point" for optimal market positioning.

Technical Analysis

Last night, driven by market news, the US dollar index experienced a sharp decline. However, in the 1H timeframe, it has not broken below the upward trendline and the daily EMA200, indicating strong support. The market quickly reversed course with a V-shaped rebound, with prices regaining the middle band of the one-hour Bollinger Bands and returning to the bullish zone. Additionally, the MACD has formed a golden cross, signaling robust bullish momentum. The strategy of going long with bullish outlook and buying on dips remains effective. Currently, key resistance levels are at the upper band of the daily Bollinger Channel and the daily EMA 200, at approximately 98.7 and 101.7, respectively.

Golden Opportunity Emerges! Missing It Means Waiting Another Year!_1

Golden Opportunity Emerges! Missing It Means Waiting Another Year!_2

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 97.9

Target Price: 98.7

Stop Loss: 97.5

Support: 98.2, 97.9, 97.5

Resistance: 98.7, 100, 101.7

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Summary:

On July 17, 2025, GBP/JPY trades near 199.0–199.5, pressured by a resurging U.S. dollar and safe-haven yen strength following stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data. Key resistance is positioned near 199.80–200.00, with support at 198.10–198.50. Technical indicators flag overbought conditions and a looming bearish reversal....

SELL GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

198.700

Entry Price

197.800

199.700

206.626 -0.474 -0.23%

100.0

Pips

Loss

197.800

199.700

Exit Price

198.700

Entry Price

199.700

Market Overview

Rising U.S. inflation and tariff updates triggered a stronger dollar and yen appreciation, squeezing GBP/JPY lower after recent highs near ~200.00. The Bank of England’s cautious stance, against a dovish BOJ, had supported the pair but waning momentum aligns with headwinds. Diverging central bank policies still support the yen short-term.

Market Sentiment

Sentiment is increasingly bearish. Investors are shifting back to safe-haven assets amid inflation andtariff turmoil . Technical outlooks warn of a reversal major resistance around 199.80–200.00, overbought stochastic/MACD, and a bearish daily wave pattern .

Technical Analysis

GBP/JPY sets up for retracement from 199.00–199.50 resistance as Fed inflation shocks bolster yen_1

Bollinger Bands (20,0,2): Price has hit the upper band near 199.8–200.0, with contraction indicating exhaustion.

Ichimoku (9,26,52): Candles appear extended above cloud and kijun; momentum stalling per delay above 4‑hour trendline .

Stochastic (5,3,3): Overbought on M15, showing a downward cross classic reversal signal .

Chart Patterns: Double-top spotted near 199.65–199.80 with bearish wave reversal signal .

Trade Recommendation

Entry (Short): 198.70

Take Profit: 197.80–197.40

Stop Loss: 199.70

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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USD/JPY Edges Higher as Traders Digest U.S. Data, Await Fed Remarks

Gold Slips as U.S. Retail Sales Surprise, Dollar Gains Ground

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GBP/JPY sets up for retracement from 199.00–199.50 resistance as Fed inflation shocks bolster yen

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USD/JPY Edges Higher as Traders Digest U.S. Data, Await Fed Remarks

Gold Slips as U.S. Retail Sales Surprise, Dollar Gains Ground

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TRADE RECOMMENDATION

EUR/USD Slips to Three-Week Low with Trump Targeting Powell

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GBPUSD Surge Was Short-lived! Is This a Reversal or a Continuation of the Downtrend?

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Policy Divergence vs. Geopolitical Games: Where Is Gold Heading?​

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Golden Opportunity Emerges! Missing It Means Waiting Another Year!

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GBP/JPY sets up for retracement from 199.00–199.50 resistance as Fed inflation shocks bolster yen

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Policy Divergence vs. Geopolitical Games: Where Is Gold Heading?